Do you guys factor in Back to Back, Injuries, Losing streak?

[sprasad03]

Hey fellas well i created my own system, and so far its 9-4. Im still not betting because I am tweaking it to where i should add certain stats or add dont play rules to further adjust my wins. So I just have some general questions.

1.Does anyone have the history of teams playing back to back, are they more likely to win, lose, 2nd time around? or is it determined by the previous game status win or loss.

2. Obviously injuries play a role, but do you guys bet on games where your favorite has one of their starters missing? Or do you usually like the under to take advantage? Or do you not bet if one your starters are out.

3. Obviously momentum i think is important, which i have factored into my system but do you guys factor in losing momentum, like LA clip who have lost 9 straight?


Ya i know alot of you will have different answer to each, but I just want to see what yall think.

[NBA Hero]

a lot of people will answer you but maybe after a few days coz lots of games on fri and weekend.
already pick my teams so have some time.
il give my opinion based on the sequence of your ques

1) determined more by the quality of the opposing team, their history, the strength and weakness. like most recent. NOH played LAL like its the playoff, CP3 and west played 40mins, the next day they are out of juice. so, one technique you should do is look at the minutes logged in by players.
most of the professionals here look at the quality of play of the starters and stars of each team. you can never be careful. even those that are careful loses, bet what you are willing to lose.

2) betting on teams without your starter only if the line is in your favor, meaning high probability to win and the team can easily cope and adjust without that player. most teams have a 2nd team that can sub for their starter. thats one of the reason teams play their 2nd team.
four reason sticks out---a) give the starter a breather for the final push or pacing
b) in case of injury, someone can gel well with the other players
c) to prevent over fatigue and injuries to their starter esp if not needed. like a large lead or insurmantable lead
d) to develop the young talents. coaching staff needs to know how the young guys play under pressure. need to play to be able to know the abilities of the rookies, etc.

3) of course momentum is important.
you want to be on that team when they are on a hot atreak like when lakers, boston, cleveland had their run. you have to be updated, you will want to be on the team when they are starting, and not on the middle or end of the streak for obvious reason.
when teams are on the losing end, watch how teams play, coz teams like okl have been shooting the ball the last few possessions like its the start of the game. thats when the defense of the other team is loose coz the win is already sealed. thats why okl usually covers the spread

GL

[ICE-BLOOD]

lots of good questions

#2. i'll go with or against a team without a star if i think i have a favorable line
injuries play a big factor in the line, and the books are on top of it 99% of the time

#3. i like current form, if its what i think a little hidden compared to the line

make some actual small plays while tweaking

gl

[sprasad03]

Well more input from everyone else will help me as well, thanks for your input guys, well what im going to do is make 3 more copies of my system and adjust my stats and see which one works out better. that way i can just test what i think and see if it goes.

I am looking to negate any team that plays back 2 back and teams with injuries. I believe as long as your starters play they still feel some effects tomorrow. Injuries in the starting line up might not account for a loss but they can account for losing ATS, so i am gonna penalize for that as well. Losing streak i wont penalize yet.

[ICE-BLOOD]

Well more input from everyone else will help me as well, thanks for your input guys, well what im going to do is make 3 more copies of my system and adjust my stats and see which one works out better. that way i can just test what i think and see if it goes.

I am looking to negate any team that plays back 2 back and teams with injuries. I believe as long as your starters play they still feel some effects tomorrow. Injuries in the starting line up might not account for a loss but they can account for losing ATS, so i am gonna penalize for that as well. Losing streak i wont penalize yet.

purer estimations can be acheived if both teams are at full strength and not hurried into the next game

[curious]

You are over-thinking IMHO.

I cap NBA games this way after having tried a LOT of more sophisticated approaches that filed miserably.

First, I look at "who's hot / who's cold". That could be the last 3 games, or it could be the last 15, just depends on what kind of streak the team is on. Today I found one team that is 12-3 SU last 15 and another team that is 3-0 ATS last 3.

If the "who's hot / who's cold" stat is ATS I look at the spreads that the team was getting/giving on those plays and compare to today's spread. For example, Kings are very good ATS lately, but the other day they were +4 and I passed on them, next night they were +8 and won ATS.

Curious

[Axis]

With the system I use (which has won approx. 78% in '09) I do take into account injuries and back to back. I will not bet on a team that has played the day before, or if they have a starter missing that game. With they system I use, I don't often play many games, but it has a good %.

Today I'm looking at:
Houston -6.5 @ OKC
Phoenix -6 Vs. Mavs
NJ +6 @ MLW (depending how the line changes)

[sprasad03]

Well after today my system will be tested a total of 26 games. as of right now its 9-4, with 12 games playing today. As to curious response, ya i see what you mean but from my experience in playing college football. Hot and Cold streaks, I think are risky, just in my view. I like the team who go in out and every play and every game. I feel that seeing how the team performs in and out will lead me to higher than 70% winnings. Every game i bet will be using spread no ML, so even if the team wins its no good if they dont cover. so i have my system spitting out the spread it can beat or not.
Anyways right now i decided, I just kept my original system and made the same system with injuries and back to back game included. I will assess which one performs better and see if its worth the change. Or i might just have a do not bet rule like the other poster was saying.

[curious]

With the system I use (which has won approx. 78% in '09) I do take into account injuries and back to back. I will not bet on a team that has played the day before, or if they have a starter missing that game. With they system I use, I don't often play many games, but it has a good %.

Today I'm looking at:
Houston -6.5 @ OKC
Phoenix -6 Vs. Mavs
NJ +6 @ MLW (depending how the line changes)

Why don't you make a daily thread so we can follow you?

[curious]

Well after today my system will be tested a total of 26 games. as of right now its 9-4, with 12 games playing today. As to curious response, ya i see what you mean but from my experience in playing college football. Hot and Cold streaks, I think are risky, just in my view. I like the team who go in out and every play and every game. I feel that seeing how the team performs in and out will lead me to higher than 70% winnings. Every game i bet will be using spread no ML, so even if the team wins its no good if they dont cover. so i have my system spitting out the spread it can beat or not.
Anyways right now i decided, I just kept my original system and made the same system with injuries and back to back game included. I will assess which one performs better and see if its worth the change. Or i might just have a do not bet rule like the other poster was saying.

I dont use this approach in football. Football isn't basketball.

[pats3peat]

You are over-thinking IMHO.

I cap NBA games this way after having tried a LOT of more sophisticated approaches that filed miserably.

First, I look at "who's hot / who's cold". That could be the last 3 games, or it could be the last 15, just depends on what kind of streak the team is on. Today I found one team that is 12-3 SU last 15 and another team that is 3-0 ATS last 3.

If the "who's hot / who's cold" stat is ATS I look at the spreads that the team was getting/giving on those plays and compare to today's spread. For example, Kings are very good ATS lately, but the other day they were +4 and I passed on them, next night they were +8 and won ATS.

Curious

did not understand

[curious]

did not understand

What is to understand? I look for matchups where a hot team is playing a cold team.