I know the natural inclination is to like Memphis @ home down 2-0 in this situation, but let's take a deeper look at the facts.
1.) The Spurs are simply the better team. This isn't really all that debatable. Memphis is a solid team, but they are the beneficiaries of some injuries to key players during their playoff run (CP3 and Westbrook). This isn't their fault and they certainly shouldn't apologize for it, but the facts are the facts. There is a reason they were the 5th seed coming into the playoffs. They just don't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Spurs on a consistent basis. Pop is taking Randolph out of the game and forcing the other players to beat him. They won't.
2.) The 3 day layoff between games. The obvious beneficiary is the Spurs. They are old men and need their rest. They should come out fresh, energized, and healthy for this game.
3.) Last year's WCF actually helps the Spurs. Everyone is jibber jabbering about how the Spurs collapsed last year after being up 2-0. They are also talking about how Memphis has already come back down 2-0 and 1-0 this year. Who do you think benefits from this? The Spurs. You think they aren't listening? Do you think they won't be taking this game seriously? I think they come out smelling blood, knowing a victory here virtually ends this series. The importance of this game is certainly not lost on this veteran team. Let's take a look at their previous game 3's during these playoffs:
It's a small sample size, but I think it's pretty obvious the Spurs understand the importance of winning the first road game in a series.
4.) Value Value Value. +5.5 and ML +205?? Crazy. It's not often you see public perception this far off from reality. I see the Spurs winning this game about 60% of the time, but the line reads the Grizzlies win 66% of the time. Again, this simply does not happen often and I just wanted to share with you guys my insights on this game. I'm certainly not one to guarantee a victory or call this a "lock" - anything can happen and I've been wrong many times before. But I have a great feeling about this one.
1.) The Spurs are simply the better team. This isn't really all that debatable. Memphis is a solid team, but they are the beneficiaries of some injuries to key players during their playoff run (CP3 and Westbrook). This isn't their fault and they certainly shouldn't apologize for it, but the facts are the facts. There is a reason they were the 5th seed coming into the playoffs. They just don't have the firepower on offense to keep up with the Spurs on a consistent basis. Pop is taking Randolph out of the game and forcing the other players to beat him. They won't.
2.) The 3 day layoff between games. The obvious beneficiary is the Spurs. They are old men and need their rest. They should come out fresh, energized, and healthy for this game.
3.) Last year's WCF actually helps the Spurs. Everyone is jibber jabbering about how the Spurs collapsed last year after being up 2-0. They are also talking about how Memphis has already come back down 2-0 and 1-0 this year. Who do you think benefits from this? The Spurs. You think they aren't listening? Do you think they won't be taking this game seriously? I think they come out smelling blood, knowing a victory here virtually ends this series. The importance of this game is certainly not lost on this veteran team. Let's take a look at their previous game 3's during these playoffs:
- @ LAL Game 3 - After winning at home by 12 and 11, respectively, the Spurs come out and put an absolute drubbing on the Lakers by 31. Worst home defeat in Lakers playoff history.
- @ GS Game 3 - With the series tied 1-1 (and almost 0-2 if not for a miracle comeback), the Spurs stroll into Oracle Arena (and the almighty 100+ decibel level), and take back control of the series behind a great performance from Parker.
It's a small sample size, but I think it's pretty obvious the Spurs understand the importance of winning the first road game in a series.
4.) Value Value Value. +5.5 and ML +205?? Crazy. It's not often you see public perception this far off from reality. I see the Spurs winning this game about 60% of the time, but the line reads the Grizzlies win 66% of the time. Again, this simply does not happen often and I just wanted to share with you guys my insights on this game. I'm certainly not one to guarantee a victory or call this a "lock" - anything can happen and I've been wrong many times before. But I have a great feeling about this one.
