Leans for Tuesday 12/30/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Tuesday 12/30/08
    Ah yes, we are getting close to the New Year, and time is running out on 2008. There were many lessons to be learned during this year...a recession hit us right where it hurts. A lot of people were made homeless by the economic woes. The CK Mafia was cast away and as refugees have found a new home. Let's get it crackin' and let's end out he old year with a bang..

    This is Pacers' Week. Origianlly it was Wizards Week, but i baled out on them when Caron went down with an ankle injury. What did they do? They went out and upset the Rockets last night...Whatever. Anyway the objective is to get a couple of covers out of the Pacers this week, and what a way to start it off with the Atlanta Hawks coming into town, the People's Choice. The consensus numbers will be so far into the Hawks side that the Pacers may end up getting points at home to the RedBirds. What a mistake that will be... The Pacers are a sterling 5-0 straight up and ats in games between these two teams in LarryBirdland. I'll take them to get the job done against the Hawks who are on the back end of a back to back. The line for tis game won't be the same come 10:00am.

    Pacers-1 (However, they will be a underdog by gametime)

    The Suns are trying to make up some ground to the Lakers in the Pacific division, and the Grizzlies, well...they are in the way. The Suns usually have their way with the Grizzlies in games played in Elvis Land 4-1 straight up and 3-2 ats. The only reason the ats record isn't betteris because the Suns are usully favored by 11 points on average in those road games. No such wide spread to have to cover in this one, as the Grizlies are remarkably better this year,and the line will reflect that much. Yet the Grizzlies are coming home with tired legs, fresh off of 2 consecutive overtime games the first of which was a douhble overtime affair against the Spurs and last night an overtime squeaker against the T-Wolves, which was much more closer than the fianl score. The Grizzlies are already a poor team on back ends of back to backs anyway. I like my chances rocking with the Suns to get the job done in this one with the small number.

    Phoenix-5.5 (buying a hook) Playing this one HEAVY

    Ah yes, now Portland gets a chance to atone fo the blowout loss to the Celtics earlier this year. The problem is tat the Celtics ARE a better and deeper team than the Blazers, and after taking their wrath at suffering two consecutive losses to start this road trip out on the Kings in a laugher, they will hit the Rose Garden bent on blasting the Blazers. I say that they will but it will be a mcuh closer game than most may think. But the overall depth of the Gang Green should get the job done.

    Boston-3.5

    Other notables (I am not playing this one as an official play and i may not play it at all, but it ooks good at first glance):

    New York/Charlotte over 206.5

    College Football

    Oregon+3.5 (buying a point)


    Those are my three, ladies and gentlemen. Now let's see what you're all smokin' on!
  • Romolicious
    SBR Hustler
    • 12-30-08
    • 62

    #2
    Ck,

    Thanks for the advice. I've been following your picks lately and Jumped all over Minn vs Grizz. I like the Suns and Pacers tomorrow. I really wished I would have stumbled on to this site before messing around on BLang.com. Thanks again man for the play.
    Comment
    • The_Kid
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-09-08
      • 5049

      #3
      T.J. Ford has been out the past couple games for the Pacers, CK. If he comes back, that means there will be some minute mixing and I don't know if you took that into consideration. If you did, or if you don't even care about that, then more power to your play. Even if Ford plays, he'll probably be used sparingly off the bench and Jarrett Jack is not a slouch.

      CK, what do you think or what does the Missus think of her beloved Kings vs the Clippers tomorrow night? Garcia is supposed to play even with his calf injury. Spencer Hawes is questionable with an abdominal strain and now Kevin Martin might return from his ankle injury.

      As for the Clippers, supposedly, Baron Davis was texting Stephen Jackson and would be open to returning to the Warriors. In any case, that's not good and I'm sure Davis is probably fed up playing for the Clippers. I bet there is a lot of turmoil going on behind the scenes. Randolph is out (bruised left knee), Ricky Davis has been suspended for doing drugs, Kaman is still out with that strained left arch, and their backup PG, Mike Taylor just had surgery on his thumb. The Clippers will definitely be short handed on the road tomorrow at Arco, which is not an easy place to play. Looking at their last game, they were playing guys like DeAndre Jordan, Mardy Collins, Brian Skinner, and Fred Jones. No offense but that kind of lineup is just asking for trouble (in a bad way).
      Comment
      • 2qwik
        SBR Hustler
        • 11-12-08
        • 61

        #4
        CK
        Phoenix is not even showing up on thegreek. Boston is not either. I wanted to hit them up now before the line moves against my favor. Are they not showing up for you too on thegreek or are you using 1 one of your other sites?
        Comment
        • maddogmadden86
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-08-08
          • 898

          #5
          hahaha gloridied CK those were two be honest with you the exact three i was going to write up on but i dont need one CK is on the same as me take it to the bank kiddies stop worrieng about the TARP trying to bail u out and lets do it the correct way
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            2qwik,

            Yeah, Greek.com took the Phoenix/Grizzlies game off of the board rather quickly after the end of regulation in the T-Wolves game, which means that they know what's coming. As far as the Boston game, i have no idea why they would remove it other than to increase the spread, or that there is some injury that we don't know about.

            Phoenix according to power rankings should be favored by only 4, but with the Grizzlies ordeals with overtime, i have a feeling that it will come back with Phoenix-6.5 to 7, which is still alright with me, but if it is 8 or so, I will have to shorten up my wager a bit more than anticipated. As stated, they are usually favored by double digits in games at Memphis

            On another note, I am very interested in what spread the New Orleans Hornets are gonna get against the Wizzleskins, coming in off the upset win and on a back to back. The power rankings have the Hornets winning by 13, so I am sure that it is not a stretch to see them favored by 10 or more...
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              What i do love however, is the consensus for Atlanta is 94% to 6% for Indiana. That i love...
              Comment
              • The_Kid
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-09-08
                • 5049

                #8
                Brandon Roy and Greg Oden are questionable everyone. If you like Boston, get on it now!
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  Greg Oden, so what...He's a bust. But Brandon Roy, that is a big problem, and Boston is not the kind of team to let up off of the gas. He is the only player on their team that can consistently create his own shot.
                  Comment
                  • isiah121
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-04-08
                    • 313

                    #10
                    CK, what about the fact the the Hawks have revenge on their mind? The last time they met during November, Pacers blow them off by 17 points.
                    Comment
                    • cocknocker
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-06-08
                      • 8001

                      #11
                      isiah121,

                      I am well aware of that beating the Hawks took. However, if a team just has your number, they just have your number. And the Pacers present matchup nightmares for the Hawks, as everyone on their lineup can knock down an open jumper, which makes defensive rotations harder. The Hawks are on their 3rd game in four days, and this one is a back end of a back to ack situation job, Throw in the fact that they are playing a team that obviousy the public feels that they should beat. The Hawks never cover when they are supposed to cover unless they are playing the Celtics, lol!
                      Comment
                      • isiah121
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 12-04-08
                        • 313

                        #12
                        CK, I hope you're right, but please don't tell me that the Hawks' on a winning streak. Seems like they're gaining much confidence. I do like the Suns though.

                        Also, seems like two teams (Nuggets & Warrior) that beated the Celtics last season were able to beat them again this season. Hmmm, I hope that the Trailblazers won't do the same to the Celtics like the other two did last season at home.
                        Comment
                        • tee401
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 04-01-08
                          • 14

                          #13
                          CK, i look forward to see the line on N.O. game also coz from my reseach when the under dog beat a big team and the game later they will lose coz they ran out of gas. So, I think N.O have a pretty good chance tomorrow to cover the spread! especially they play at home and Washiton on the road game!
                          My play gonna be Pacer, N.O, Sun, and Boston!!! (^.^)/
                          Comment
                          • cocknocker
                            Restricted User
                            • 11-06-08
                            • 8001

                            #14
                            The Kid,

                            Why didn't you tell me about the disrespectful remarks that simran10 made about me on your "Wolves can't shoot" thread? I am a little disappointed that you didn't put a correction on him for that, but whatever. I can't reasonably have that expectation of you as you didn't come from where we (CK Mafia) came from. Anyone from my crew would have let him have what for. And guess what? If i would have caught him saying something like that about you, just know that he would not have just said those types of things and i wouldn't defend the honor of you as a person.

                            I'm just sayin'....
                            Comment
                            • isiah121
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 12-04-08
                              • 313

                              #15
                              Steve Nash is questionable with back spasm. Bad news to the Suns guys.
                              Comment
                              • johnnyP
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 12-06-08
                                • 305

                                #16
                                Thanks CK

                                Thanks CK for the Minnesota pick and fun on here during 4th quarter and overtime. GO TWOLVES!
                                Sorry I ever doubted them or your pick. You are one cool cat and a blessing! Thanks!
                                Comment
                                • danrman
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 08-30-08
                                  • 2696

                                  #17
                                  i know this a basketball thread as i have nothing to add to the nba info right now but i know we all have been playing some bowl games and i wanted to alert everybody that tomorrow night the holiday bowl happens and this game is notorious for a ton of points being scored... ok st. and oregon fit this same pattern also... over 76
                                  Comment
                                  • NBA Hero
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-05-08
                                    • 1886

                                    #18
                                    the kid,
                                    whats the injury update on brandon and oden, didnt know about that. could you give specifics if its back, hand or knee prob. thnx??

                                    on Atl-ind,
                                    last time they played horford left the game early and they are without josh smith.
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #19
                                      danrman,

                                      There's a false favorite in that game, and i like the side of Oregon. They have no business getting points in this game of any kind. The over is a viable choice though, but i think I will stick with the side homes. It will be hot in San Diego, and Oregon is much closer to the site than Oklahoma State is. And the Ducks have a supportive crowd that travels well in packs. I like the Ducks in this matchup. Quack, quack!
                                      Comment
                                      • peterpan19
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 11-02-08
                                        • 3377

                                        #20
                                        ck
                                        was just wondering, whar happened to you NY pick

                                        great day, will have my plays later on
                                        Comment
                                        • peterpan19
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-02-08
                                          • 3377

                                          #21
                                          ck
                                          forgot to thank you for your parlay tip

                                          great work, thx

                                          Dec 29 2:00pm4 Team Parlay - Winner13.72 to win 98.62
                                          1. Basketball - Baylor - spread -11½ (1.77)
                                          for the entire game held on Dec 29 at 8:00pm [winner] 2. Basketball - Tennessee - spread -25 (1.53)
                                          for the entire game held on Dec 29 at 7:30pm [winner] 3. Basketball - Memphis - spread -11½ (1.91)
                                          for the entire game held on Dec 29 at 9:00pm [winner] 4. Basketball - Coll Charleston - spread +6½ (1.59)
                                          for the entire game held on Dec 29 at 9:05pm [winner]
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            Oh, you're welcome peterpan19,

                                            I didn't think that anyone was paying attention to my college basketball parlay! As far as the New York pick, I had to lay off of that one in favor of the Suns pick, which kind of presented itsself as a better pick when you take into account the things that their competition has had to endure in preparation for their game.
                                            Comment
                                            • indeed
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-17-08
                                              • 224

                                              #23
                                              T.J. Ford will not play in Indiana's game tonight
                                              Comment
                                              • indeed
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-17-08
                                                • 224

                                                #24
                                                Suns and Grizzlies are both off a back-to-back .. Grizz have no answer inside for Amar'e - Gasol will be on Shaq all night and Warrick is a joke. If the Phoenix line is -9 or lower, I'll take that.
                                                Comment
                                                • The_Kid
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                  • 5049

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by NBA Hero
                                                  the kid,
                                                  whats the injury update on brandon and oden, didnt know about that. could you give specifics if its back, hand or knee prob. thnx??
                                                  Roy suffered a mild hamstring strain in Saturday's game against Toronto and Oden sprained an ankle in practice the other day. He had a MRI done and it came back negative and supposedly, he's a game-time decision. McMillan expects him to play though. CK couldn't have said it clearer that it really doesn't matter if Oden plays. The bigger factor would be Brandon Roy. He's their guy and the only one on the floor who can create his own shot. Without him, they'll be struggling to put points on the board against a great defensive team like the Celtics.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • peterpan19
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 11-02-08
                                                    • 3377

                                                    #26
                                                    ck
                                                    I did and after you had some bad luck in cbb lately, I just had to take a shot at it, even so I dont do parlays very often.
                                                    Also a question to moneymanagement:
                                                    your normal play is around 300, pc play is 3000, and how much is a heavy/Big play like pho today ? 1500 or 1200 ?
                                                    thx
                                                    Comment
                                                    • wangichu
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-07-08
                                                      • 946

                                                      #27
                                                      definitely on oregan in college football.

                                                      ORE +3/ML

                                                      As far as NBA goes

                                                      Love indiana for the reasons CK mentioned and because their value is inflated by the fact that they are a ridiculous 14-2 at home and a mediocre 6-8 on the road. They have won 5 straight (all home games) and have not left Atlanta in over 2 weeks. Good win over denver, but indy plays contenders tough at home and atlanta is now a contender.

                                                      IND PK

                                                      minny just came off an epic comeback OT victory at home against a subpar grizzlie squad. Now they have to face the surging mavs who are returning to their home dominance where they always handle subpar teams like the grizz. A little deja vu here as they played 3 on the road (losing the second) then covered a -12 against memphis coming off a tough fought cover at home vs the lakers. This time having gone W, L, W on the road, they come back as 12 pt favs against the t-wolves coming off an epic OT comeback and just begging for a let down. Where's that early money? of course... the t-wolves happlessly set to let down the public.

                                                      DAL -12

                                                      all things considered, i'm a little nervous playing on phoenix for the game. memphis probably will get too tired to hang in the 4th last year, but they always start sluggish against the suns before being overwhelmed, and momentum is large with the suns, who pulled one out against the thunder with a strong 2nd half. Meanwhile, the grizzlies had a first half lead which they squandered late in the game allowing PC's to get paid. Memphis is young enough to run 4 out of 5 if anyone can and they alraey lost a close one to phoenix so i'm not sold on the game spread, but i'll play the added momentum to phoenix's 1st half game

                                                      PHO -3.5 1st half
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Freddy
                                                        SBR Rookie
                                                        • 12-23-08
                                                        • 8

                                                        #28
                                                        Call me crazy but at the game between IND and ATL and their last performances I can't see that ending under. Both scores a lot, playing no defence and score should go up. After all sounds more safe to me than any side bet. I bored to see Johnson scoring from whenever he try and Bibby to kill opponents with dead three pointers in the most important period of game.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #29
                                                          oregon vs okl st-

                                                          both of these offenses avg 42ppg - no need to get cute with this high total. the game should land between 90-100 as zach robinson should go up and down the field on this oregon defense. oregon has gone over in 8 of 12, while okl st has gone over in 6 of 11.

                                                          *over*
                                                          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          wmich vs rice-

                                                          ive been cashing on rice overs all year, and i'm not backing off today. rice is an unknown explosive offense led by qb chase clement, and wr jared dillard. they run a no huddle pass happy offense that should have no trouble with the wmich defense. rice has gone over at a 9-3 clip this year, while wmich has gone high in 7 of 11. wmich is 97th in the nation vs the pass, and actually 10th in passing offense. rice is 5th in passing offense, and 114th in pass defense. going large now on the over.

                                                          *over* (large)
                                                          ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          bucks @ spurs-

                                                          the bucks have been really solid ats this year, but this is a bad spot for them. revenge angle at play for the spurs who lost at milw back on 11/12. last years visit to sa was a 25 pt beating for the bucks. same kind of result tonight.

                                                          *spurs*
                                                          -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          wolves @ mavs-

                                                          wolves just got their first home win in OT last night - al jefferson didnt sit the whole second half/OT. now they travel to face the mavs who have covered 4 of 5, and seem to be back on track with howard healthy. i can see the wolves having a major letdown after that huge (for them) win.

                                                          *mavs* (large)
                                                          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          nevada vs maryland-

                                                          nevada has one of the best offenses in the nation (5th best in total yards), and now maryland has lost their defensive coordinator to take a job at kstate. maryland has stumbled into this bowl game losing 2 in a row su, while nevada has won 3 of 4 su. i dont mention ats numbers here since nevada essentially just needs to win. maryland does not play well on the road (1-4 su and ats) and is 0-2 on turf. now they have to travel cross country and deal with this offense on a surface that will favor the speed of nevada.

                                                          *nevada*
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                            2qwik,

                                                            Yeah, Greek.com took the Phoenix/Grizzlies game off of the board rather quickly after the end of regulation in the T-Wolves game, which means that they know what's coming. As far as the Boston game, i have no idea why they would remove it other than to increase the spread, or that there is some injury that we don't know about.

                                                            Phoenix according to power rankings should be favored by only 4, but with the Grizzlies ordeals with overtime, i have a feeling that it will come back with Phoenix-6.5 to 7, which is still alright with me, but if it is 8 or so, I will have to shorten up my wager a bit more than anticipated. As stated, they are usually favored by double digits in games at Memphis

                                                            On another note, I am very interested in what spread the New Orleans Hornets are gonna get against the Wizzleskins, coming in off the upset win and on a back to back. The power rankings have the Hornets winning by 13, so I am sure that it is not a stretch to see them favored by 10 or more...
                                                            yeah, i got my line at -10.5 (with butler) -12.5 (no butler)

                                                            *CK - not sure if you saw my post in last nights thread - nash and shaq are both question marks tonight. nash left the game last night with back spasms, and shaq sometimes sits on btb.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Spoon
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-21-08
                                                              • 592

                                                              #31
                                                              Great win on your T-Wolves, CK and all those you rode that wave. That was an awesome come from behind win. For the record, if Wilson didn't get injured, NC State would have crushed Rutgers. He's a freshman and I think it's safe to say he's going to be a stud. However, I still covered. Anyway...

                                                              Nevada -1 (Hook)
                                                              Rice -2 (Hook)
                                                              OSU -2 (Hook)
                                                              Oregon/OSU Under 77.5 (1pt) - Didn't pull the trigger yet. Waiting for it to climb.
                                                              Boston -3.5
                                                              Mavs -11 (1pt)

                                                              GL and party like a rockstar this New Years Eve.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dexter
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-24-08
                                                                • 25829

                                                                #32
                                                                spoon - i doubt that total moves much higher....if anything, it should start coming down.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • danrman
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-30-08
                                                                  • 2696

                                                                  #33
                                                                  everyone might consider the dallas-cleve tease
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ClockCleaner
                                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 99

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Careful with that Indiana play. I like the Hawks to get their revenge tonite from an earlier blowout loss when the Pacers beat them 113-96 last month when the Hawks were without Josh Smith. Healthy Hawks get the win tonite.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #35
                                                                      nevada vs maryland-

                                                                      nevada has one of the best offenses in the nation (5th best in total yards), and now maryland has lost their defensive coordinator to take a job at kstate. maryland has stumbled into this bowl game losing 2 in a row su, while nevada has won 3 of 4 su. i dont mention ats numbers here since nevada essentially just needs to win. maryland does not play well on the road (1-4 su and ats) and is 0-2 on turf. now they have to travel cross country and deal with this offense on a surface that will favor the speed of nevada.

                                                                      *nevada*
                                                                      Comment
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