Gsw +14,5 @1.35 ( -290 )

[CaptainOmar111]

Hi guys , Iam new to NBA betting !!! I bet only 2 times on NBA and hit both !!!

Iam interested in GSW +14,5 @1.35 ( -290 )

Is it safe bet or risky ? , I like the odds since Iam small bettor

[CaptainOmar111]

Any Opinions , guys ?

[Stokes36]

With their season on the line, I would think pushing the points on the Nuggets would have been a safer bet, IMO. I just can't see their season ending at home in the playoffs after they were so great in the reg season. Them losing at home, I feel is a lot LESS likely than them blowing the Warriors out of the water.

[CaptainOmar111]

With their season on the line, I would think pushing the points on the Nuggets would have been a safer bet, IMO. I just can't see their season ending at home in the playoffs after they were so great in the reg season. Them losing at home, I feel is a lot LESS likely than them blowing the Warriors out of the water.

I have never seen both teams but Golden +14,5 should be good pick , right ?

[Taka]

In my opinion, you will not be constantly hitting 3 out of 4 such bets in NBA, which you would need just to break even...

[CaptainOmar111]

In my opinion, you will not be constantly hitting 3 out of 4 such bets in NBA, which you would need just to break even...

yesterday I missed Houston +7,5 @ the same odds !!! Iam happy with the odds and the safer bets . why ? because I have only 2:3 units and I bet 1 unit per game so If i lost 2 or 3 bets .. Simply I will leave betting

[Jgjk]

yesterday I missed Houston +7,5 @ the same odds !!! Iam happy with the odds and the safer bets . why ? because I have only 2:3 units and I bet 1 unit per game so If i lost 2 or 3 bets .. Simply I will leave betting

take warriors +35 @ +1100

best bet of the night

[CaptainOmar111]

take warriors +35 @ +1100
best bet of the night

loool

[Taka]

yesterday I missed Houston +7,5 @ the same odds !!! Iam happy with the odds and the safer bets . why ? because I have only 2:3 units and I bet 1 unit per game so If i lost 2 or 3 bets .. Simply I will leave betting

You don't seem to get it... It's not about hitting one game, it's about hitting 4 out of 5, just to make a small profit (1/3 of a unit). That's not easy to do in NBA, but be my guest... I challenge you to hit 12 out of 15, which you would need for a 1 unit profit.

[CaptainOmar111]

You don't seem to get it... It's not about hitting one game, it's about hitting 4 out of 5, just to make a small profit (1/3 of a unit). That's not easy to do in NBA, but be my guest... I challenge you to hit 12 out of 15, which you would need for a 1 unit profit.

I appreciate your opinion !!! I understand & learn at same time because Iam new
But I can win the challenge just because I do not bet everyday in NBA ... so usually the 12 or 15 plays will be played through 2 months or more !!!

Iam betting NBA when I see safe bet only !!! Tennis & Soccer are the main sports for me !!!

Anyway , What is ur play in Denver X GSW game tonight ?

[uvarunthetable]

Not trying to be mean or anything but I don't know why you start threads like this. Obviously everyone is going to think a -290 play is pretty safe, but whenever anyone says betting like this isn't necessarily a great idea you seem to dismiss it. If these are the bets that you really like to make go for it, but there isn't really much of a point in starting a thread asking if people think a -290 bet is going to hit.

[xetsr]

If you haven't seen these teams play then why pick? This is the NBA, there are no "safe bets".

[CaptainOmar111]

Not trying to be mean or anything but I don't know why you start threads like this. Obviously everyone is going to think a -290 play is pretty safe, but whenever anyone says betting like this isn't necessarily a great idea you seem to dismiss it. If these are the bets that you really like to make go for it, but there isn't really much of a point in starting a thread asking if people think a -290 bet is going to hit.

I do not ask people if -290 will hit or no !!! I said I like it and ask if +14,5 will hit or no !!!

Also my thread does not harm you BOL

[CaptainOmar111]

If you haven't seen these teams play then why pick? This is the NBA, there are no "safe bets".

Yeah NBA is risky But I like that BOL

[Ontnr]

yesterday I missed Houston +7,5 @ the same odds !!! Iam happy with the odds and the safer bets . why ? because I have only 2:3 units and I bet 1 unit per game so If i lost 2 or 3 bets .. Simply I will leave betting

Dude, I'm sorry to break this for you, but if you always bet a third of your bankroll on bets like these (70% p), the likeliness of going broke within a decent number of bets is extremely high.

[Ontnr]

double.

[CaptainOmar111]

Dude, I'm sorry to break this for you, but if you always bet a third of your bankroll on bets like these (70% p), the likeliness of going broke within a decent number of bets is extremely high.

I appreciate this But what should I do then ?

[Taka]

I have a Knicks (-1), OKC (-2), Denver ML and Clippers ML parlay, just to make the games more interesting. Not yet sure if I dare to play the spread either way, but if I had a gun to my head, I would probably chose Denver -8, just because of the "high" line and the fact that I expect them to win tonight. But it's scary, given the latest GSW form...

To answer your question, your bet "should" hit (at -290 it better), just not 12 out of 15 times and that is why I don't like it. If you however feel strong about it, just do it.

[Ontnr]

I appreciate this But what should I do then ?

I'd say follow conservative bank roll management:-) Bet same sized bets about 2-3 % of BR. And 3 % is quite high, that's risky long term..but for small bank rolls that people can afford to lose..well. Anyways, if you only bet high P bets, such as the one in this thread, it's more OK to bet a higher percentage.

If that's too boring I would rather try to get lucky and take higher risks, and then be careful afterwards:-) That's not a recommendation or a smart thing to do, but it gives you a higher chance to keep your bankroll (and expand it) than betting the entire thing over and over until you eventually get broke.

So if you do win some bets, remember to decrease the percentage of BR per bet, so that you have a chance of staying alive.

The sad reality is that for 90 % (probably more) of gamblers, the least -EV choice (most profitable choice) is to stop gambling at any given time:-) But you know better than me if you're able to find value bets or not..

[CaptainOmar111]

I'd say follow conservative bank roll management:-) Bet same sized bets about 2-3 % of BR. And 3 % is quite high, that's risky long term..but for small bank rolls that people can afford to lose..well. Anyways, if you only bet high P bets, such as the one in this thread, it's more OK to bet a higher percentage.

If that's too boring I would rather try to get lucky and take higher risks, and then be careful afterwards:-) That's not a recommendation or a smart thing to do, but it gives you a higher chance to keep your bankroll (and expand it) than betting the entire thing over and over until you eventually get broke.

So if you do win some bets, remember to decrease the percentage of BR per bet, so that you have a chance of staying alive.

The sad reality is that for 90 % (probably more) of gamblers, the least -EV choice (most profitable choice) is to stop gambling at any given time:-) But you know better than me if you're able to find value bets or not..

I parlayed Heat + SAS in their last game @-200 and hit it

I parlayed small amount on ( Houston +7,5 + Houston/OKC over 199 ) @ -135 and hit it

So I do well with small odds as it is safer in my opinion !!!

My bankroll is small amount and I can afford to lose but Iam trying my best to survive

[CaptainOmar111]

I have a Knicks (-1), OKC (-2), Denver ML and Clippers ML parlay, just to make the games more interesting. Not yet sure if I dare to play the spread either way, but if I had a gun to my head, I would probably chose Denver -8, just because of the "high" line and the fact that I expect them to win tonight. But it's scary, given the latest GSW form...

To answer your question, your bet "should" hit (at -290 it better), just not 12 out of 15 times and that is why I don't like it. If you however feel strong about it, just do it.

Thanks Man

[dopeismarcus]

lol u keep buying all these points -290 how much u dropping $100 atleast?

[CaptainOmar111]

lol u keep buying all these points -290 how much u dropping $100 atleast?

The winning should be amazing %30 : %35 , I will put 100 Egyptian Pounds = $10 ... You may see $10 small amount because they are small in ur country but they are very very big amount here since we are poor country and the $1 means here the same as $10 in ur country

Honestly , which better : GSW +14,5 or Denver -1,5 ?

[dopeismarcus]

i like GS +14.5 but denver could come out on fire since there home.

[SpreadSniper]

risky spot to be laying such juice.... I know Im chiming in late... but that's alotta juice to lay in a game where Nugs are out for blood.

Not sure why guys lay such juice on games.... 50/50 you pick right from the outset yet you insist on making your risky wager "riskier"... teasers I get, but this kinda shit will ruin you long term

[El Sol]

Free betting tip: To make money betting sports, the first thing you need to understand is that a sports bet is a bet like any other including one you would make on a blackjack table in a casino. You can not predict the outcome of a un-predictable event. This is the biggest myth sports betters make, that is,that you can predict the future. You can not, just like whether you hit or stay in blackjack changes the outcome of the next card, despite what third base thinks, it does not

To make money on sports betting, you have to make bets where the payout odds are better than the actual odds of the bet hitting. Since that will never happen at Blackjack, that is the reason you cant win at it.

In sports, the books try to set the line to where the outcome is 50/50 on a -110 (1.85) line (contrary to popular belief, the books aren't trying for even betting money on both sides, they want an even probability on both sides) so they will make money long term with a lofty 4.5% edge regardless how much money is being bet on either side. But sometimes books don't have all the info and make mistakes and set the line wrong giving one side a Hugh house edge (square side) and the other a player edge (sharp side). This is where you, the handicapper, come in. You handicap the game by interpreting the same information better and bet the side the books got wrong taking away the house edge, also known as the margin.

Don't buy in to all the noise you will read and hear here. The majority of the betters here are full of it with all kinds of mis-information You can not predict the future, you can only predict a probable outcome and bet it according to the the pay odds.

Thats it, that is the secret. There is no other magic formula. If you can successfully do that 55% of the time, then you will retire a millionaire. But alas, it is not that easy and will take years to learn and master. You seem to young and seem to be open to learning, I hope I set you on a prosperous course. Good Luck!

[CaptainOmar111]

Free betting tip: To make money betting sports, the first thing you need to understand is that a sports bet is a bet like any other including one you would make on blackjack table in a casino. You can not predict the outcome of a un-predictable event. This is the biggest myth sports betters make, that they can predict the future. You can not, just like whether you hit or stay in blackjack changes the outcome of the next card, despite what third base thinks, it does not

To make money on sports betting, you have to make bets where the payout odds are better than the actual odds of the bet hitting. Since that will never happen at Blackjack, that is the reason you cant win at it.

In sports, the books try to set the line to where the outcome is 50/50 on a -110 (1.85) line (contrary to popular belief, the books aren't trying for even betting money on both sides, they want an even probability on both sides) so they will make money long term with a lofty 4.5% edge regardless how much money is being bet on either side. But sometimes books don't have all the info and make mistakes and set the line wrong giving one side a Hugh house edge (square side) and the other a player edge (sharp side). This is where you, the handicapper, come in. You handicap the game by interpreting the same information better than them and bet the side the books got wrong and take away the house edge, also known as a the margin.

Don't buy in to all the noise you will read and hear here. The majority of the betters here are full of it with all kinds of mis-information You can not predict the future, you can only predict a probable outcome and bet it according to the the pay odds.

Thats it, that is the secret. There is no other magic formula. If you can successfully do that 55% of the time, then you will retire a millionaire. But alas, it is not that easy and will take years to learn and master. You seem to young and seem to be open to learning, I hope I set you on a prosperous course. Good Luck!

Thanks Sir so much for those amazing words Can not say anything , Just Thanks

And yeah Iam small as I have just been allowed to play at sportbooks this year !!!

I will keep learning , I hope I do well soon BOL Sir

[SpreadSniper]

31	Golden State Live	7:05 pm Add to Ticket	32	Denver Live

<input name="Selection" value="G*101959508*31*0*S*16.5*-110" type="checkbox">	+16½	-110	Game Spread		<input name="Selection" value="G*101959508*32*0*S*-16.5*-110" type="checkbox">	-16½	-110