new poster, new insights

[Razz_Donkey]

Hi everyone,

First post here on the forum. I've been a reader for awhile now but have finally decided to get involved. I want to introduce myself and explain what I'm going to try to do.

I aim to post daily when there is NBA action with thoughts, comparisons, general musing, and a combination of stats and math pertinent to the days games.

I am not an oracle, nor a profit. I have done well on sports betting but my primary background comes from poker. If you disagree with something I say, good. I will never claim omniscient powers. The main goal here is to enhance our edge through detailed discussions of the days lines.

Lets hope we can work together to provide even greater insights and thoughts on sporting matchups. My mission here is to be a productive and thought provoking member of this forum. I know there are many of you out there, and I will gladly welcome your thoughts and advice during this journey.

Picks and thoughts to come in subsequent posts.

[The Oddz King]

Welcome to SBR!

[Razz_Donkey]

12/27/08 1st Pick

Okay, my first pick today was a 3 team 8 point teaser.

- Orlando -1 (teased 8 points)
- Memphis +21 (teased 8 points)
- Portland pk (teased 8 points)
Total odds: -120

I really like this combo. ML on Orlando and Portland right now sit at -540 and -400 respectively. Both of these teams are being weighted as fairly dominant favorites to win their games. This teaser reduces the spreads to be effectively like a ML bet for both teams.

Each team had yesterday off and should come back well rested. Their opponents (Wolves and Raptors) both played yesterday in fairly intense and close road games. They each got a win, but against rather mediocre teams. Both teams are likely to show up a bit winded and tired today. This teaser merely requires a victory greater than 1 of Orlando and a win from Portland, neither of which should be very difficult.

The Memphis component. Memphis pulled out a close win yesterday at home. They will be tired, but likely excited. San Antonio is a force a home, and simply won't lose this game. These two teams met one month ago in San Antonio, and spurs clinched an 11 point victory. Spurs have covered the spread against Memphis each time they have met this year. But this is a teased spread, and its huge. San Antonio certainly has the ability to win this game by a huge margin but is extremely unlikely to do so in my eyes, and its due to their coach. Popovich is just too good of a coach to waste his starters time in the fourth quarter to keep a big lead. I doubt we see Parker, Duncan, or Ginobli put in any serious minutes in the fourth unless the Spurs have less than a double digit advantage. These players are tried and true veterans, and they will be given the extra rest that they need by their coach. Memphis will have a chance to close the gap a bit here in the fourth is my best guess, and should be able to get it under a 21 point defeat.

[Razz_Donkey]

Other teaser options

A few good substitutes exist for the teaser I mentioned above. I think any of these lines below would be solid choices to add to a teaser if you dislike some of the choices I listed above:

- New Jersey +11 (teased 8 points) I think this one is self explanatory. NJ is a solid road team averaging 98.5 PPG at home but a whopping 103.8 on the road! They may very well pick up a road victory today, but if not they should have no problem keeping a loss to single digits.

- OKC Thunder +15.5 (teased 8 points) OKC does not look like a very pretty team but has been playing well of late. In fact in the last 10 games the biggest loss endured was by 11 points against the Cavs. In the last five road games they have lost all of them, but by only an average of 5.4 points. This seems like a teased spread thats almost too generous.

Any thoughts or comments would be most appreciated.

[NBA Hero]

didnt know that butler was out for wash. good luck on okl

[NBA Hero]

two wins already for you

good luck on port