NBA Betting Review and Top Totals
NBA Betting Review and Top Totals
The NBA will take Christmas Eve off before their big day on Christmas when fans will find five games on the slate that will keep them glued to their TV sets from noon until after midnight. For some totals bettors, Christmas has already arrived in the form of winning tickets. And whether you're winning on the Over or the Under, it all comes down to the play of the point guards on a given team.
Here we are at the start of the NBA’s Christmas break – at least, for most players. Everyone gets the 24th off, but 10 teams will be in action on the 25th as the league turns its traditional Christmas Day doubleheader into a quintupleheader. Thirteen straight hours of hoops? Let’s hope Santa brings a giant sack of No-Doz this year.
The main event of the Xmas Day games is, of course, the Boston Celtics at the Los Angeles Lakers. But the real story of the early season has been the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’re on top of the Central Division at 24-4 SU and a league-best 22-6 ATS. They’ll be playing the Washington Wizards on Thursday; Washington is deep in the Eastern Conference cellar at 4-22 SU and a league-worst 9-17 ATS.
It’s all about the point guards. LeBron James is the best player in the world right now, but it’s the addition of Mo Williams (19.2 points, 5.1 assists per 40 minutes) that has pushed the Cavaliers into the NBA elite. Washington is missing Gilbert Arenas, which makes the departure of Roger Mason (47.8 percent from behind the arc) to San Antonio that much harder to swallow for Wiz supporters.
Folks in Toronto might be rethinking the T.J. Ford-Jermaine O’Neal trade, as well. The Raptors have cratered after a promising start by going 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS this past month; depth at the 1-spot behind Jose Calderon (14.4 points, 9.8 assists/40) has been a key issue. The Raps could use someone like Ramon Sessions (17.6 points, 7.2 assists/40), whose work in support of starter Luke Ridnour has the Milwaukee Bucks at 13-16 SU and a mouthwatering 19-9-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets lead the Northwest at 18-10 (16-11 ATS) and are rejuvenated now that they finally have a “proper” point guard in Chauncey Billups (20.2 points, 8.0 assists/40), and the Orlando Magic rule the Southeast at 22-6 (18-9-1) behind a career-best performance from Jameer Nelson (21.3 points, 6.7 assists/40). Rajon Rondo… Devin Harris… it’s that simple.
It’s natural that the fate of an NBA team rests in the hand of the man bringing the ball up the court – and the coach who tells him what to do. But does this apply to the total as well as the pointspread? Let’s look at the Top 3 over and under teams and see.
Over
Indiana Pacers (17-10-1): Although Indiana is last in the Central at 10-18 (14-13-1 ATS), Ford is a very good fit in this system, and he’s got Jarrett Jack backing him up. The Pacers run the third-quickest pace in the league and could be dangerous if and when they get healthy.
Houston Rockets (18-11): The Rox are molasses by comparison at No. 22 in pace, but the development of speedy Aaron Brooks (15.55 PER) has given Houston a better option at the point besides Rafer Alston (13.82 PER).
Phoenix Suns (16-10-1): They’re not as fast as they were under Mike D’Antoni, but Steve Nash and the Suns aren’t slow either at No. 10 in the league in pace. Nor are they very good at defense at No. 24 in efficiency. That’s a great combination for the over.
Under
Philadelphia 76ers (17-9-2): The Sixers are No. 18 in the league in pace with 32-year-old Andre Miller walking the ball up the court. The Philly defense is seventh in the league in efficiency, but the offense is stuck at No. 27 with Samuel Dalembert (9.5 points/40) turning into a black hole at center.
Atlanta Hawks (17-9-2): Atlanta is a young team, but not at the 1-spot, where Mike Bibby (age 30) runs the No. 25-ranked pace in the NBA. Backup Acie Law saw plenty of this playing for Texas A&M as well.
San Antonio Spurs (18-10): This has been a reliable bet for the past five years; San Antonio is ancient, runs the No. 27 pace in the league, and plays hard defense. Tony Parker does his part with a solid 2.2-1 assist/turnover ratio and a lousy 31.4-percent shooting rate from downtown.
The NBA will take Christmas Eve off before their big day on Christmas when fans will find five games on the slate that will keep them glued to their TV sets from noon until after midnight. For some totals bettors, Christmas has already arrived in the form of winning tickets. And whether you're winning on the Over or the Under, it all comes down to the play of the point guards on a given team.
Here we are at the start of the NBA’s Christmas break – at least, for most players. Everyone gets the 24th off, but 10 teams will be in action on the 25th as the league turns its traditional Christmas Day doubleheader into a quintupleheader. Thirteen straight hours of hoops? Let’s hope Santa brings a giant sack of No-Doz this year.
The main event of the Xmas Day games is, of course, the Boston Celtics at the Los Angeles Lakers. But the real story of the early season has been the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’re on top of the Central Division at 24-4 SU and a league-best 22-6 ATS. They’ll be playing the Washington Wizards on Thursday; Washington is deep in the Eastern Conference cellar at 4-22 SU and a league-worst 9-17 ATS.
It’s all about the point guards. LeBron James is the best player in the world right now, but it’s the addition of Mo Williams (19.2 points, 5.1 assists per 40 minutes) that has pushed the Cavaliers into the NBA elite. Washington is missing Gilbert Arenas, which makes the departure of Roger Mason (47.8 percent from behind the arc) to San Antonio that much harder to swallow for Wiz supporters.
Folks in Toronto might be rethinking the T.J. Ford-Jermaine O’Neal trade, as well. The Raptors have cratered after a promising start by going 5-12 SU and 4-12-1 ATS this past month; depth at the 1-spot behind Jose Calderon (14.4 points, 9.8 assists/40) has been a key issue. The Raps could use someone like Ramon Sessions (17.6 points, 7.2 assists/40), whose work in support of starter Luke Ridnour has the Milwaukee Bucks at 13-16 SU and a mouthwatering 19-9-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets lead the Northwest at 18-10 (16-11 ATS) and are rejuvenated now that they finally have a “proper” point guard in Chauncey Billups (20.2 points, 8.0 assists/40), and the Orlando Magic rule the Southeast at 22-6 (18-9-1) behind a career-best performance from Jameer Nelson (21.3 points, 6.7 assists/40). Rajon Rondo… Devin Harris… it’s that simple.
It’s natural that the fate of an NBA team rests in the hand of the man bringing the ball up the court – and the coach who tells him what to do. But does this apply to the total as well as the pointspread? Let’s look at the Top 3 over and under teams and see.
Over
Indiana Pacers (17-10-1): Although Indiana is last in the Central at 10-18 (14-13-1 ATS), Ford is a very good fit in this system, and he’s got Jarrett Jack backing him up. The Pacers run the third-quickest pace in the league and could be dangerous if and when they get healthy.
Houston Rockets (18-11): The Rox are molasses by comparison at No. 22 in pace, but the development of speedy Aaron Brooks (15.55 PER) has given Houston a better option at the point besides Rafer Alston (13.82 PER).
Phoenix Suns (16-10-1): They’re not as fast as they were under Mike D’Antoni, but Steve Nash and the Suns aren’t slow either at No. 10 in the league in pace. Nor are they very good at defense at No. 24 in efficiency. That’s a great combination for the over.
Under
Philadelphia 76ers (17-9-2): The Sixers are No. 18 in the league in pace with 32-year-old Andre Miller walking the ball up the court. The Philly defense is seventh in the league in efficiency, but the offense is stuck at No. 27 with Samuel Dalembert (9.5 points/40) turning into a black hole at center.
Atlanta Hawks (17-9-2): Atlanta is a young team, but not at the 1-spot, where Mike Bibby (age 30) runs the No. 25-ranked pace in the NBA. Backup Acie Law saw plenty of this playing for Texas A&M as well.
San Antonio Spurs (18-10): This has been a reliable bet for the past five years; San Antonio is ancient, runs the No. 27 pace in the league, and plays hard defense. Tony Parker does his part with a solid 2.2-1 assist/turnover ratio and a lousy 31.4-percent shooting rate from downtown.