NBA - Friday, 4/12/13

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Play Friday


Kings +13 -110 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 191-201-2, -10.35

[RJKing]

good call...

[LT Profits]

NBA 4-Play

1 NBA Play Friday


Kings +13 -110 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 191-201-2, -10.35

Adding:

Grizzlies / Rockets OVER 193.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Clippers / Hornets UNDER 189.5 +129 (Heritage)
Lakers -7.5 -104 (5 Dimes)


NBA Card Complete

[PorkChop]

Why not buy the Lakers half point at -7 (-118)?

[LT Profits]

Why not buy the Lakers half point at -7 (-118)?

It's almost never worth it to buy points in basketball. My -7.5 -104 is approximately equivalent to -7 -113, so -118 is no good.

[YouHave2outs]

So what you are effectively saying is that if you were offered -7.5 -109 that would make it a no play, whereas -7.5 -104 is? The assumption is based on you telling your boy here that -7 -118 is not a play because you see a fair adjustment to be -7 -113?

I know value in sportsbetting these days is very slim, and that a few points of juice can turn a play into a no play.

But an honest question from someone that plans on tailing some of your mlb plays, how much value do you need from the betting line in comparison with your model and other factors to make it a play?

[Sport_Fish]

It's almost never worth it to buy points in basketball. My -7.5 -104 is approximately equivalent to -7 -113, so -118 is no good.

Yeah but at -7 it probably IS a good idea...seeing as how key that number is.

p.s. If those are ur kids in the avatar, how come 1 is white? And why does the white kid get more space than the black ones.

[El Sol]

Yeah but at -7 it probably IS a good idea...seeing as how key that number is.

p.s. If those are ur kids in the avatar, how come 1 is white? And why does the white kid get more space than the black ones.

Unlike football which has key numbers. There are no key numbers in basketball.

[LT Profits]

Yeah but at -7 it probably IS a good idea...seeing as how key that number is.

p.s. If those are ur kids in the avatar, how come 1 is white? And why does the white kid get more space than the black ones.

Like El Sol said, there are no key numbers in basketball. Every winning margin between 5 and 8 has a push probability between 4.0% and 4.3%. As for the kids, they are adopted, the one on left is of hispanic descent, the two on right are twins. The "sizing" was a coincidence after merging some pics together.

[LT Profits]

So what you are effectively saying is that if you were offered -7.5 -109 that would make it a no play, whereas -7.5 -104 is? The assumption is based on you telling your boy here that -7 -118 is not a play because you see a fair adjustment to be -7 -113?

I know value in sportsbetting these days is very slim, and that a few points of juice can turn a play into a no play.

But an honest question from someone that plans on tailing some of your mlb plays, how much value do you need from the betting line in comparison with your model and other factors to make it a play?

My response was based on the half-point calculator, http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/ which isn't 100% but gets you in the ballpark.

[Sport_Fish]

Like El Sol said, there are no key numbers in basketball. Every winning margin between 5 and 8 has a push probability between 4.0% and 4.3%. As for the kids, they are adopted, the one on left is of hispanic descent, the two on right are twins. The "sizing" was a coincidence after merging some pics together.

hmm I could be wrong but I remember reading something about this a few years ago, about how -7 is key because games tend to land on this number differential more than others, or something of the sort. And I think -3 was also a key one. But either way, I would guess you'd need hundreds of thousands of bets in to even get that 'edge' at that number, if in fact it is a key number.

and yeah I was just curious about the avatar, that's all.