I know that chase systems are the devil but I've had an idea that I thought I'd bring up for discussion.
I was thinking that fading winning and losing streaks of say 3 games against the spread could be profitable if you we're to chase for three or four games. The idea is that because the lines are set by the public and not a random event like a coin flip, teams become over or undervalued and Vegas adjusts the lines accordingly. I'm aware that streaks of 7+ wins ATS the spread aren't uncommon, but idk I feel oddsmakers/public opinion would prevent as many from occurring than random chance would allow.
I tried back testing by using day by day results at scoresandodds but it was painstakingly difficult. Would anyone have a more convenient way to do this or has tracked something similar?
I was thinking that fading winning and losing streaks of say 3 games against the spread could be profitable if you we're to chase for three or four games. The idea is that because the lines are set by the public and not a random event like a coin flip, teams become over or undervalued and Vegas adjusts the lines accordingly. I'm aware that streaks of 7+ wins ATS the spread aren't uncommon, but idk I feel oddsmakers/public opinion would prevent as many from occurring than random chance would allow.
I tried back testing by using day by day results at scoresandodds but it was painstakingly difficult. Would anyone have a more convenient way to do this or has tracked something similar?
