Regression towards the mean strategy.

[Zacharrr]

Hey guys, here I will try out a quite simple regresson towards the mean strategy. For those of you who are not familiar with the concept of regression towards the mean: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

Its a relatively simple formula that I'm using and put in simple words I am betting against teams that are "hot" and back teams that are "cold". Of course, there is no such thing as hot and cold teams.

All plays will be 1u plays (sorry no fancy locks and the like)!

Today: Toronto +2 -106 (pinnacle)

[innovation]

The problem is its all interpretation.

While Nuggets are hot (home) they are 11-16 on the road and coming off a loss.

GL

[gojetsgomoxies]

i have thread doing the opposite (although if mine loses then i can just apply the opposite)....

how are you defining hot/cold?

i just do past 5 ranking vs. season ranking.

a guy did a thread playing against ATS streaks (playing ATS losing streaks, fading ATS winning streaks.... some of the streaks were pretty persistant, unfortunately although his system did very very well earlier on)

anyway, good luck

[Zacharrr]

The problem is its all interpretation.

While Nuggets are hot (home) they are 11-16 on the road and coming off a loss.

GL

yes but im not betting SU, but ATS. and yes, its all open to interpretation. We'll see how it turns. its a mix of player stats and ATS record. I dont believe in overly fancy algorithms, often simple algorithms are superior.

[Riceboi]

not every stat regresses back to the mean though, some stay lopsided.

for example, okc in it's last 20 games is 13-6-1 ATS, i'm betting their ATS record will stay good and not perform 7-14 or 10-10 or something bad over their next 20 games.

that's just a quick easy example but it applies to other teams and stats as well.

[SteelRain]

There are too many unknown values in the NBA for someone to use any form of OLS estimation. Did the team party the night before? does that player "feel" like playing tonight? is there any locker room "beef" going on? any number of those factors make the NBA highly unpredictable and hard to bet on in the long term.

[pattymayo]

There are too many unknown values in the NBA for someone to use any form of OLS estimation. Did the team party the night before? does that player "feel" like playing tonight? is there any locker room "beef" going on? any number of those factors make the NBA highly unpredictable and hard to bet on in the long term.

couldn't the same be said about any sport?

[SteelRain]

couldn't the same be said about any sport?

yes but the NBA is a lot more random (ATS wise) than other sports imo

[Zacharrr]

you are letting your feels and emotions get the better of your analytical. It is easier for your mind to give an emotional answer to a statstical question.
I am not here to discuss emotions vs. statistics, I'm not surprised by some of the answers here, and if you guys read up on some statistical concepts, your POV might change significantly !

Steelrain: Your point

Did the team party the night before? does that player "feel" like playing tonight? is there any locker room "beef" going on?

goes both ways. Unless a particular NBA team is more of a party team than others, this doesn't matter.

not every stat regresses back to the mean though, some stay lopsided.

Yes there is variance, however this is only true if the probabilties are not distributed evenly, otherwise your statement wrong.

yes but the NBA is a lot more random (ATS wise) than other sports imo

You answer a question with emotion, there is no rationality behind it. That is not how you beat sportsbetting in the longrun. Your statement indicates that you might want to start reading up on statistics. Wikipedia is a good starting point !

Dont mean to offend anybody here !
Todays plays are: Orlando, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. Havent locked in anything yet.

Record: 1-0 +1u

edit: Milwaukee -5 -110 (5dimes) locked in

[cockblocker]

I was using the same logic when I posted about the favs being 20-9 from thurs to sun.

Now the dogs 14-2 the past two nights.

I love using this strategy when the numbers get really lopsided one way.

Same has the Kings who had 9 unders in 11 games and now are 3-0 over last 3 games.

[Zacharrr]

brooklyn -2 -108 (5dimes) locked

[Zacharrr]

I was using the same logic when I posted about the favs being 20-9 from thurs to sun.

Now the dogs 14-2 the past two nights.

whats the correlation between those two ? Maybe I fail to see it.

[Zacharrr]

orlando +2.5 -105 5dimes locked in

[Zacharrr]

Only 2 games today that dont meet my filters ! GL

UPDATED RECORD: 2-2

[Zacharrr]

boston +8,5 -109

[cockblocker]

boston +8,5 -109

Boston will get ran out the building this time.

[KennyM10]

The books love this type , has no clue what he is talking about. Chances this thread lasts more than a few weeks without regressing to the garbage can.

[Zacharrr]

Thanks for your valuable input KennyM10 !

Milwaukee +5 (-104 pinnacle) thats all for today

[Zacharrr]

OKC -3 (-113 pinnacle)
Lakers -7 (-105 pinnacle)

1 more play later

Current record: 4-2

[Zacharrr]

milwaukee -4 -108 5dimes

[Zacharrr]

Miami -2.5 (-110) 5dimes

Record: 5-4

[JR007]

good luck

[Zacharrr]

Thanks buddy, good luck to you as well !

[Zacharrr]

Brooklyn -2 -105 pinnacle. game is tomorrow

[Zacharrr]

Record: 6-4

portland +9.5 -102 5dimes
detroit +9.5 -108 5dimes

thtas all

[Zacharrr]

record : 7-6

pistons +4.5
bucks -4.5

[Zacharrr]

record 7-8
Lakers +3 was a play, sorry i failed to post it earlier.
only other play today is portland -2

[Zacharrr]

ony play today will be lakers.
updated record: 9-8

[Zacharrr]

Lakers +7 booked

[Zacharrr]

plays today are GSW and Milwaukee

[Zacharrr]

GSW + 8
Milwaukee +5.5
Record: 9-9

[cockblocker]

This is what I meant by regreesion to the means.

Kings had went under 9 of the past 12 games with 1 push before flying over tonight.

Still they are 28-22-1 to the over for the season. 16-8-1 at home.

Im looking for the overs to start cashing in from here on the next 10 to 12 games at least with a good streak along the way.

7-0 overs since then.

[Zacharrr]

good job dude !

[Zacharrr]

Record is 10-10

Plays are: Warriors +8, Milwaukee+8, Toronto-4.5, Detroit+7, Portland+2.5, Memphis-7.5

[Zacharrr]

4-2 on the night, record is 14-12

only play is gonna be clippers