gonna try 3 systems...

[gojetsgomoxies]

i really enjoyed following that ATS winning and losing streak system that did really well and then fell apart some (houston and minnesota losing streaks seemed to kill it). i'm new to nba betting and i found it really helped me pay attention).. gonna start on monday's games

as mentioned, part of this is just to pay attention to trends.

we play top 5 and we play against bottom 5. 2 units each

if picks conflict, no play (good home team vs. good road team)

if picks align, good home team vs. bad road team then 3 units.

games can have multiple picks, each system will be tracked separately
so my 3 systems are:

1) good home vs. road (and vice-versa ATS teams)

indiana is great at home. new orleans great on the road.

Indiana	5.0	16%	HHHH
Miami	4.7	16%	HHHH
Boston	4.2	20%	HHHH
San Antonio	3.8	3%	HHHH
Toronto	3.7	13%	HHHH
Detroit	2.8	-4%
LA Clippers	2.8	18%
Portland	2.8	11%
Phoenix	2.7	-6%
Washington	2.5	-8%
Utah	2.3	28%
Denver	2.3	13%
Minnesota	2.1	2%
Okla City	1.9	11%
LA Lakers	1.4	16%
New York	1.3	8%
Dallas	1.2	-9%
Sacramento	0.4	-4%
Golden State	-0.3	1%
Atlanta	-0.6	-14%
Charlotte	-0.7	-10%
Houston	-1.0	21%
Brooklyn	-1.3	0%
Philadelphia	-1.7	14%
Memphis	-1.9	5%
Orlando	-2.0	-26%	RR
Cleveland	-2.3	-21%	RR
Chicago	-5.0	-35%	RR
Milwaukee	-5.9	-17%	RR
New Orleans	-6.4	-25%	RR

2) last 5 games much better or worse than entire season.

houston is hot, utah is cold

Houston (26-23)	7	13.4
Denver (30-18)	4	6.4
Golden State (30-17)	7	5.1
LA Lakers (21-26)	6	4.8
Dallas (20-27)	10	4.6
Philadelphia (20-26)	10	4.4
Milwaukee (25-21)	6	3.4
Toronto (17-30)	6	3.2
Washington (11-35)	7	2.6
Chicago (29-18)	1	2.3
Boston (23-23)	2	2
Miami (29-14)	1	1.6
New York (30-15)	-1	1.2
Indiana (28-19)	0	1.1
Portland (24-23)	3	1
Cleveland (14-34)	6	0.9
Atlanta (26-20)	-3	-0.3
Charlotte (11-35)	4	-0.5
Minnesota (18-26)	-2	-1.5
New Orleans (15-33)	1	-1.6
Memphis (30-16)	-9	-2.1
San Antonio (38-11)	-6	-3.2
Phoenix (16-32)	0	-3.6
Okla City (35-12)	-10	-4.6
Orlando (14-33)	-2	-5.3
Brooklyn (28-19)	-11	-6.3
Detroit (18-29)	-6	-7
LA Clippers (34-14)	-18	-8.6
Sacramento (17-32)	-1	-8.8
Utah (26-22)	-12	-8.9

3) teams with huge differential between playing best teams and worst teams. new york is great against the best teams. miami is great vs. worst teams.

New York (4-0)	4	15.2
Cleveland (2-3)	21	11.8
Portland (4-5)	19	8.1
LA Clippers (3-2)	5	6.9
Chicago (4-3)	13	5.6
Golden State (5-4)	8	4.3
Atlanta (2-6)	9	3.8
Okla City (3-2)	0	2.7
LA Lakers (2-8)	8	2.5
New Orleans (2-10)	6	2
Utah (2-6)	4	1.8
Boston (3-5)	7	1.2
Orlando (1-5)	5	0.8
Memphis (4-5)	2	0.5
Indiana (3-4)	2	0
Denver (3-6)	0	-0.7
Milwaukee (1-6)	-1	-0.9
Toronto (1-6)	-1	-1
Washington (2-6)	-1	-2.3
Philadelphia (1-6)	-2	-3.2
Minnesota (1-7)	-7	-3.5
Houston (2-7)	-7	-3.6
Phoenix (1-9)	-6	-4.3
Charlotte (0-6)	0	-6.9
Sacramento (1-7)	-3	-7
Detroit (1-6)	-15	-8
Dallas (1-10)	-20	-9.7
Brooklyn (4-7)	-14	-10.2
San Antonio (1-6)	-18	-11.8
Miami (2-3)	-18	-12.3

[bosspopo]

GL with this system.

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok, i missed posting picks for monday, but except for the one system (last 5 game rating) should be able to analyze games from yesterday.

HOME and ROAD system

kinda strange. lots of picks but they cancelled each other out.

system liked indy at home and chicago on the road so no play. FYI indiana at home won the ATS. but like i said doesn't count.

dallas (good road) vs. OKC (good home), so no play. FYI OKC home won ATS, but no play.

against top or worst teams

miami a play vs. terrible charlotte 2 units....... LOSS

0-1 minus 2.14 units.

last 5 games angle

no play as that data would change too fast, and i don't have yesterday's data.

[gojetsgomoxies]

tonight (tuesday)

against top or worst team play

no plays

playing well/badly last 5 games

doing well: houston, indy, denver. 2.14 units each..

doing poorly: brooklyn (LAL their opponent for 2.14 units)

home vs. road system:

good at home: denver, indiana (2.14 units each)

good on road: milwaukee (2.14 unit)

bad on road: LAL (2.14 unit on brooklyn.... not that we are playing LAL and brooklyn but they are in different system. we won't combine systems).


going to look into simplifying this. the ideas are fine. just want to cut down on daily work. let's see how this goes.

[gojetsgomoxies]

oops milwaukee at denver so those home/road plays cancel out

[gojetsgomoxies]

playing well/badly:

doing well: houston WIN, indy WIN, denver WIN. 2.14 units each..

doing poorly: brooklyn (LAL their opponent for 2.14 units WIN)
all 4 winners...... 4-0 for tonight and the thread.


home/road:


indy win, brooklyn loss 1-1 tonight and thread

good vs. bad favourite/underdog:

no play today. 0-1 thread...
i am assuming -107 on all lines so i can do the unit calculation at any time.

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok, picks for wednesday night. alot of games

home/road good/bad:

home good: OKC, Utah

home bad: orlando, clevland (so take their opponents LAC and charlotte)

road good: milwaukee (this cancels out utah home play so no play that game)

road bad: boston, houston (so take toronto and miami

recent play hot/cold vs. season:

last 5 hot: hou, indiana, phil, nyk (indy and philly play each other so no play on those 2)

last 5 cold: utah, lac, memphis, orlando, detroit...... lac play orlando, so no play on those. play on milwaukee, atlanta, brooklyn.

play vs. top 5/bottom5 (relative to overall play):

good vs. top 5: none

bad vs. top 5: none

good vs. bottom 5: NYK

bad vs. bottom 5: cleveland, LAC (so take charlotte, orlando)

not certain i'm going to keep this category, may expand it to play vs. top 10 and bottom 10.

so 2 units on everything. -107. closing lines.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think denver or utah at home in many spots would also be a good system. altitude plus i've sensed that denver/utah seem to be near the end of road trips (could be wrong though)

[Vinnie Paz]

Didnt you have Brooklyn playing poorly just yesterday? Now theyre playing Detroit on a b2b who you also have playing poorly, shouldn't they cancel out?

[Vinnie Paz]

Also you're betting clippers and magic?

[Spoon19xx]

Wheres the "playing well/ badly"???? that one went 4-0

Is badly a Word?

[jaybk718]

Have to keep my eye on this system

[gojetsgomoxies]

Didnt you have Brooklyn playing poorly just yesterday? Now theyre playing Detroit on a b2b who you also have playing poorly, shouldn't they cancel out?

things change daily and i'm not posting the background screens... i'm top 5 and bottom 5 in terms of recent play so brooklyn may have dropped off even though they lost to LAL (last 5 would drop a game too once a new game is played).was surprised brk no longer there.

fyi, i am using teamrankings.com for everything. i do a tiny bit of interpretation butmi think it's unbiased (top 5 vs. above 60%/below 40% on some ats stuff)

appreciate the comments, especially when i miss teams playing each other

think i'm going to change play vs. top 5/bottom 5 to good/bad favourites and good/bad underdogs. should capture same idea but more picks and less work

[gojetsgomoxies]

gonnachange the good/bad vs top 5 or worst 5 teams. too complex and not enough picks.

i only took teams that have been faves or ud's alot but maybe it shouldn't matter. if charlotte is barely ever a fave then it won't matter much. hate fading an 0-2 fave team. i'll try to quantify eligibility

good favorites: okc, memphis

bad favorites: miami (take opposite)

good underdogs: portland, washington

poor underdogs: minnesota, atlanta, boston (take opposites). i note none are big underdogs..

anyway, if it looks promising i will tweak more although will never revise past record (i.e. all real time)

[gojetsgomoxies]

thought i'd posted this but it was from ipad which is unreliable.

brooklyn was in bottom 5 in last 5 games vs. season before playing LAL. they played poorly BUT they dropped the game against memphis which they lost by 25. that's a problem with trailing averages. depends on what drops off. anyway, they no longer qualify. it's a quant system.

[Pick'nParlays]

Interesting system

[Pick'nParlays]

Kool

[gojetsgomoxies]

gonnachange the good/bad vs top 5 or worst 5 teams. too complex and not enough picks.

i only took teams that have been faves or ud's alot but maybe it shouldn't matter. if charlotte is barely ever a fave then it won't matter much. hate fading an 0-2 fave team. i'll try to quantify eligibility

good favorites: okc W, memphis L

bad favorites: miami (take opposite) W

good underdogs: portland L, washington W

poor underdogs: minnesota W, atlanta L, boston L (take opposites). i note none are big underdogs..


so i see 4-4 on this part of thread. note i am grading playing the poor underdogs and favourites opponents.

anyway, if it looks promising i will tweak more although will never revise past record (i.e. all real time)

4-4 on this part of thread.

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok, picks for wednesday night. alot of games

home/road good/bad:

home good: OKC W, Utah NO PLAY

home bad: orlando, clevland (so take their opponents LAC W and charlotte L)

road good: milwaukee NO PLAY(this cancels out utah home play so no play that game)

road bad: boston, houston (so take toronto L and miami W

3-2 here
recent play hot/cold vs. season:

last 5 hot: hou L, indiana NP, phil NP , nyk L (indy and philly play each other so no play on those 2)

last 5 cold: utah, lac, memphis, orlando, detroit...... lac play orlando, so no play on those. play on milwaukee L, atlanta W, brooklynW .

2-3 here

play vs. top 5/bottom5 (relative to overall play):

good vs. top 5: none

bad vs. top 5: none

good vs. bottom 5: NYK

bad vs. bottom 5: cleveland, LAC (so take charlotte, orlando)

these won't count as i changed the system before the games (in the thread, but would have gone 0-3 i think)

not certain i'm going to keep this category, may expand it to play vs. top 10 and bottom 10.

so 2 units on everything. -107. closing lines.

so combined with other picks looks pretty 50/50 last night. 4-0 and 0-1 before last night.

only a couple of games tonight

[gojetsgomoxies]

for tonight (thursday), only 2 games

performance as favourite/underdog:

good favourite: denver

bad favourite: none

good underdog: chicago (so denver/chicago cancel)

bad underdog: LAL

Last 5 games vs. season

outstanding last 5 games: denver, boston

poor last 5 games: none

home/road performance:

good home: denver

poor home: none

good road: chicago (denver/chicago cancel out again)

poor road: LAL

right now i am running small lists for the past 5 games performance, (generally top and bottom 5 teams). and looking at 60%/40% for my good/bad/home/road/favourite/underdog categories

as i said, for me it's just as much following simple trends and paying attention to season as finding a "winning system"

[Pick'nParlays]

kool

[abzflabz]

Got fridays licks?

[gojetsgomoxies]

unfortunately i have to backfill friday's picks.. for two of the systems i can pretty much do that as they are pretty stable. the last 5 games is unstable.

i'm going to list all the teams that qualify and bold the ones that are playing and that qualify from now on. i only did top 5 for last night. not sure if i should do top 5 or above/below 60%/40%

Powerful/Impotent favorites. scrappy/terrible underdogs:

play good favourites: indiana, okc, gsw, den, memphis... memphis/gsw played each other. indiana LOSS, OKC WIN. 1-1

fade bad favorites: charlotte, orlando, chicago, portland, sacramento. alot played none favorites. ... if i tweak the system going forward a team like atlanta might have been a play. but they were 13-16 before last night. which is 45%ish. portland and chicago are the high volume poor favourites 0-0

play good underdogs: nyk, wash, lac LOSS, noh WIN, chi WIN.... NYK and wash were favourites... 2-1

fade poor underdogs: LAL, minn PUSH, sac, charlotte WIN, utah WIN... 2-1. note we are fading charlotte and utah.

good/bad home/road:

good home: OKC win, denver, houston WIN, lac, indiana LOSS 2-1

fade bad home: chicago, orlando, charlotte WIN, sac, atlanta WIN 2-0

good road: NOH WIN, washington, dallas, chicago WIN, milwaukee 2-0

fade bad road: boston, utah, LAL LOSS, philly, portland WIN 1-1

pure guesswork on hot/cold teams: i'm thinking indiana for sure a loser. see alot of potential WINS but it gets complex to guess as it's against season performance. so no record for that last night

[gojetsgomoxies]

i got ahold of my top 5 and bottom 5 hot teams for thursday night and there were only 2 games.

based on that list (and not counting on record) here are last night's picks:

hot: houston WIN, philly, indiana LOSS, denver, NYK push 1-1-1......

fade cold: utah WIN, lac WIN, orlando WIN, brooklyn WIN, detroit LOSS 4-1 UNOFFICIAL

none of these results would be directly affected by changes in rankings from thursday night.

[gojetsgomoxies]

and to tonight's (saturday) action:

hot teams: wash, bos, ind, den, okc (yes, the quant system still shows indiana as hot vs. season, and it makes sense to me). looks like none playing tonight.

cold teams: lac, brk, memphis, atl, mil....... so fade milwaukee as the only i see playing.

good faves: indy, okc, gsw, den, memphis..... denver playing and is favourite.

bad faves: cha, orlando, chicago, portland, sacramento.... LOL Sac is a favourite tonight. so fade them

good udogs: nyk, wash, lac, noh, chicago .... none playing

bad udogs: lal, minn, sac, cha,utah..... fade charlotte, utah....

good homekc, den, hou, lac, ind.... none at home

bad home: chicago, orlando, charlotte, sac, atlanta.... fade sac.

good road: noh, wash, dal, chi, mil.... none on road.

bad road: bos, utah, lal, phil, port. fade utah.

surprised/disappointed cleveland doesn't show up at all in these picks.

[gojetsgomoxies]

for yesterday i see we had fade mil WIN, play den WIN, fade cha WIN

we had two fade SAC LOSSes and two fade UTAH WINS but they played each other so those were no plays (didn't realize it)

this is looking pretty good so far. i have to tabulate the past days and have better presentation in the future.

[gojetsgomoxies]

so today (sunday) we have lal/mia, lac/nyc, por/orl, minn/memphis, noh/tor, okc/pho, sas/brk, hou/sac... note if games have already started i limit myself to top 5 teams in the category as a mechanical rule.

good home: i see none

bad home: i see none

good road: noh, sas.... two units each...

bad road: LAL, por.... so 2 units each on their opponents, miami and orlando

good faves: okc 2 units

bad faves: portland,... so 2 units on orlando

good udogs: LAC (in top 5), noh... so 2 units each

bad udogs: lal, minn, sac... 2 units on miami, memphis and houston

hot teams: okc 2 units (wow alot of repitition in picks)

cold teams: lac (#1), brk, memphis.... so 2 units on NYK (already a LOSS), sas, minnesota

that's alot of picks.... go okc and orlando!!

[gojetsgomoxies]

so today (sunday) we have lal/mia, lac/nyc, por/orl, minn/memphis, noh/tor, okc/pho, sas/brk, hou/sac... note if games have already started i limit myself to top 5 teams in the category as a mechanical rule.

good home: i see none

bad home: i see none

good road: noh LOSS, sas WIN.... two units each...

bad road: LAL, por.... so 2 units each on their opponents, miami WIN and orlando WIN

good faves: okc 2 units WIN

bad faves: portland,... so 2 units on orlando WIN

good udogs: LAC WIN (in top 5), noh LOSS... so 2 units each

bad udogs: lal, minn, sac... 2 units on miami WIN, memphis WIN and houston LOSS (pending)

hot teams: okc 2 units WIN (wow alot of repitition in picks)

cold teams: lac (#1), brk, memphis.... so 2 units on NYK (already a LOSS), sas WIN , minnesota LOSS

that's alot of picks.... go okc and orlando!!

so 10-5 today. already counting sacramento as a LOSS... not sure what i am doing when both sides line up (hot vs. cold, good home vs. bad road). hasn't happened much.

anyway looks promising. i think it's been all good winning days except for one 50% winning day.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i see 30-12 the last 4 days (hope i didn't double-count one day) ??? i think 4-0 the first day and then 50%ish the other day? i'll go back and actually tabulate that one 50%ish day

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok tonight (monday)

hot/cold:

hot: wash, indiana... so 2 units each.

cold: brk, milwaukee, atlanta... so 2 units each on indiana, washington, dallas. but i'll combine the double bets on indy/wash into 3 units each (instead of 4 units)

home/road:

good home: indiana 2 units

bad home: chicago, charlotte. 2 units each on sas, boston (boston bet negated by their poor road perf)

good road: wash, sas... 2 units on each. but combine two SAS bets into 3 units instead of 4 units.

bad road: bos.... 2 units on charlotte BUT ........... charlotte and boston bets negate each other

Fave/Udog:

good fave: indiana,... 2 units

bad fave: chicago. 2 units on SAS. SAS bad udog negates this bet.

good UDog wash, 2 units

bad UDOG charlotte SAS... 2 units on charlotte. no SAS bet....

kinda stupid on SAS as it's only 5 games but i'll keep it the way it is... no play.

[gojetsgomoxies]

bump. will update in a second

[gojetsgomoxies]

not that i'm doing pure system picks after games are over. and my slate tonight is looking to be a huge loser. i.e. people with systems, at least me, backfill on losing nights too.

didn't get my picks in in time tonight, so no minor interpretation, just straight rules using teamrankings.com data. aren't as many picks as when i expand it a bit (over 60% ATS vs. top 5 ATS)

good home: none

bad home: none

good road: none

bad road: portland 2 units on miami

good favourite: okc, GSW, memphis 2 units on each

bad favourite: none

good underdog: none

bad underdog: pho, utah... so 2 units each on LAL, and OKC

hot: okc, tor, denver. unfortunately tor/denver play each other, so only okc 2 units

cold: gsw, pho... so 2 units on houston, LAL

looking pretty bad so far.

new rule for backfiling system. i think i'm going to make a team have to have 10% of its games qualify (i.e. okc/sas can never be a bad underdog) and i'll 57.5% as the cut-off for good/bad (i.e. you are a good home ATS team if you are over 57.5% at home. so 10% of games and 57.5% ATS is cutoff. obv 42.5% on other end)

[gojetsgomoxies]

once again missed getting these picks down here, but it's purely mechanical

hot: wash L, clev W, bos L, houston pending

cold: brooklyn L, atlanta L, milwaukee W.... W and L are from fading the team

good home: LAC pending

bad home: orlando W

good road: wash L, chicago W, SAS L

bad road: portland W, utah L, charlotte W

good favourite: indiana W

bad favourite: none

good underdog: washington L, chicago W

poor underdog: charlotte W

record tonight: 9-8 and houston/lac pending but that will be a wash (1-1)