Leans for Thursday 12/4/08

OuchaDirkFan41 · 12-03-08, 11:18 PM

Nice wedsnday(Dont know about jazz yet.)

But I was thinkin boston, but your explanation made me confident. Which completed the parlays and straight bets

Took LA, Boston, ATL, and teamed them with Orlando -9.5

wangichu · 12-04-08, 01:38 AM

what about NFL, CK?

I've got the Raiders +9.5

the raiders have won SU at denver and KC, chargers know they're not going to overtake denver, and may not show up for another game outside of the denver game. Added to that, the raiders are coming off a loss to another divisional opponent, and will be highly jacked and won't want to drop two straight in the division...

also thinking about the under, but not convinced enough yet... maybe a parlay on OAK +15 and under 48 ish? ... i'll figure it out tomorrow ...

probably on spurs 1st half and game, they come out strong on the road and will be motivated by vengence and the sour taste of back to back losses

wangichu · 12-04-08, 01:40 AM

also curious to see what the line on dallas will be, i think they might just decimate the suns, these teams momentums are in opposite direction.

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 03:49 AM

You know, Wang, I am not touching that football game. Ladanian has not been running with the same fury this year as in years past. That is precisely the reason why the Chargers suck. At the same time their defense is in disrepair. I live in the Bay Area, and believe me, the Raiders are as bad as their record is. So you go on ahead and rock that game if you want to, the only game that I am interested in is the San Antonio and Denver game. There are much etter matchups this weekend for football games.

So far I have leans on Saturday for Hawaii, Virgina Tech and UCONN, and Sunday I like the Bills, and the Eagles based upon the information that you gave me on that game. As far as totals are concerned, I do think that the Cardinals and Rams will go over the total with ease.

Now with the Dallas/Phoenix game, you already know what I think about taking teams that have lost 3 straight games. Phoenix already has their number (3-1 with two pushes) and seeing Dallas may be the tonic that Phoenix needs to get off of the shnide. Dallas has no one that can guard Amare. The offense should run through him if the Suns are to play this new half court style ofense. Once Coach Porter figures that out, his team will be much better off for it. Shaq has gotten old right in front of our eyes.

Dallas should not be favored by anything more than 4.5. Anything over that, and Phoenix covers even with as bad as they have been playing. They are 7-3 straight up on the road, and 5-4 ats albeit they have been favored in 8 of those contests. Conversely, Dallas has been horrible at home with a 1-7 ats record in their last 8 home games, and only 5-5 straight up. My opinion is to take Phoenix and the points because their stock is low right now and no one else is gonna take them, especially after the second half tank job last night against New Orleans. The 1st half is usually 54.5 to 52.7 in favor of Phoenix, and with the carry over effect in consideration, they may steal the 1st half from Dallas if given over 2 points.

BigMoneyMan · 12-04-08, 07:19 AM

I estimate the Dallas game at -4 and if it is I will take it. Suns plain suck! I'm still debating the Denver game and probably will wait until late to see the line movement. I am not as convinced that Denver dosn't' win this one.

africanroller · 12-04-08, 08:58 AM

Ck I am absolutely shocked you are leaning Hawaii on Saturday. I drooled over that game when it came on the board with everyone else I know. If Cincy doesnt win that came by 3 tds something is seriously wrong.

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 11:05 AM

africanroller,

You let everyone that you know that something is seriously wrong, and Cincy won't win that game by 3 touchdowns without divine intervention. They have not played not one single game in pacific standard time this year. Don't overlook that fact. It is very important. Then there's the distractions in Hawaii, the partying, the lifestyle, the girls, etc. Then on top of that Hawaii's good. There is reverse line movement on the game as well. Don't you know that the line went down from Cincy -8 to -7 with only 13% of bettors on Hawaii's side? That alone made this a power play. I am going to buy a hook and lay it at Hawaii+7.5 I don't think that Cincy can beat them by more than a touchdown. Like most WAC teams Hawaii is a highpowered offense that throws on darn near every play. Interesting fact: Hawaii actually averages more yards on offense than Cincy and Hawaii only surrenders 40 yards more on defense than Cincy (and that's hard to do against those WAC teams). Do your homework, mate.

BigMoney,

There you go again. You're betting to win, being predictable, and that is not a good way to wager. We have this talk all the time. Denver is the public pick. Line up on the side of the book and do the exact opposite of what your heart feels. I'll ask you the same question that i asked you last night. With fully loaded teams (San Antonio played without Ginobili and Parker for one half the last time these two played), how many rings has George Karl earned, and how many has Popovich earned? Which means that Popovich is a better big game coach. I seriously think that Popovich could take Denvers' team and win more games than Karl will.

This qualifies as a big game. Yet you are giving that Championship caliber coach more points than usual in Denver. Whatever. Bet to lose, and that's how to win. Only 30% of bettors on San Antonio and the line has gone down to 4 on some books. That's reverse movement. I took it back to 4.5, which means that Denver must win by 6 or more. No way.Not against a fully loaded Spurs team.

It isn't wise to pass judgement on the Spurs when they weren't playing with a full deck up until now.

San Antonio lost at home to Detroit. Denver blew out Toronto. I can't be predicatble and take the team that blew out a team. Remember the level of competition in the previous game. Toronto is not a great road team like Detroit is. Do what you like. I placed my wager already. I am that confident. I don't need to watch the line anymore. I have already seen enough.

As far as Dallas and Phoenix is concerned. Dallas is not good enough of a home team for me to place a wager on them. Likewise Phoenix is too poorly coached for me to wager on them as well. You're on you own on that one. I give the edge to Phoenix as they are a better road team than Dallas is a home team. But that game won't see any of my money.

2qwik · 12-04-08, 11:21 AM

At first I wanted to wager on Dallas due to Josh Howard's likely return from ankle sprain but it is not certain if he is back or not if it swells again. I will have to follow CK and not wager on this game until I see Josh Howard back 100%. Also, Nash and Shaq are suppose to come back for this game and I am sure Phoenix is ready to come out strong after last night's dissapointment.

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 12:01 PM

I was spot on with the projected line for Dallas/Phoenix game, as it opened at 4.5. Potential bettors look for the line to jump. My take is if it does go to 5 with all of the money on Dallas, buy it to 6 and play Phoenix. If it goes down any with all of the money on Dallas, then you already know what that means. Dallas will be the punlic play on this one. I don't think that they will cover. Phoenix has their number, and they were obviously saving Nash and the Big Aristotle for this game.

chipper8888 · 12-04-08, 12:12 PM

Nice call last night on the Celtics by the way

what about the over in the spurs/nuggets game ? The Nuggets are like 5-0 at home

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 12:53 PM

chipper8888,

There is no way that I can take an over when San Antonio is playing. Sometimes they put the clamps on teams. Moreover than that, these teams just don't turn the ball over. Denver only has 15.6 turnovers per game, and San Antonio (get this) only turns the ball over 12.4 times per game. Now that is a good statistic for an under play if anything. However, the numbers suggest that you may be in good standing with your play.

Defensively Denver allows 97.9 at home, which is kind of high (basically 100) and 97.6 overall. San Antonio allows 94.5 on the road and 92.8 overall. With all of that said, this presents a special quandray as I came up with a total number just a smidgeon higher than the offered line of 190.

My rescoring model not only has San Antonio winning, but with the 3 points deducted for the home court advantage, I have favored San Antonio-.5 (half point) and a total of 192.5 as the appropriate line. Overall my findings yeild that San Antonio is 3.5 to 4 points better than Denver in this matchup before deductions for favorable referee calls for the home team.

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 01:26 PM

CK Mafia,

We have ourselves a live one to put a correction on today. Everyone go look at the thread "Raptors fire coach Sam Mitchell" started by betplom.

There is an entry by a gentleman named MJFtheGenius that I found extremely racist.

As a favor for me, and all persons of any nationality or walk of life, I would like for those true members of the CK Mafia to put a correction on this gentleman and let him know your thoughts on the subject that he introduced for no apparent good reason. It cannot go unnoticed, and it deserves commentary. I was shocked and offended. Have your way with him, but do it in a manner that is with class so we can keep our pack together.

Let him know that we are in the building.

BrandonLaz · 12-04-08, 01:52 PM

CK nice plays last night I was on the Boston and LA play with you as well. I was on the Thunder last night with Styles and had them all in a 3 team parlay so it was a good night. I will be pulling the trigger with you on the Spurs tonight took them with a 2 unit play ML and a 5 unit play spread. I have been wondering when do you start looking into College Basketball, and do you have any thoughts on the NFL game tonight? I am on the over of 41.5 as all 4 Thursday night games in the NFL have gone over so far. Not to mention 11 of 14 on Monday nights. Apparently the NFL loves scoring a lot of points on weeknights.

killersweet · 12-04-08, 02:25 PM

CK, that guy is an ignorant idiot. Probably posting to get reaction from people.

roasthawg · 12-04-08, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

chipper8888,

There is no way that I can take an over when San Antonio is playing. Sometimes they put the clamps on teams. Moreover than that, these teams just don't turn the ball over. Denver only has 15.6 turnovers per game, and San Antonio (get this) only turns the ball over 12.4 times per game. Now that is a good statistic for an under play if anything. However, the numbers suggest that you may be in good standing with your play.

Defensively Denver allows 97.9 at home, which is kind of high (basically 100) and 97.6 overall. San Antonio allows 94.5 on the road and 92.8 overall. With all of that said, this presents a special quandray as I came up with a total number just a smidgeon higher than the offered line of 190.

My rescoring model not only has San Antonio winning, but with the 3 points deducted for the home court advantage, I have favored San Antonio-.5 (half point) and a total of 192.5 as the appropriate line. Overall my findings yeild that San Antonio is 3.5 to 4 points better than Denver in this matchup before deductions for favorable referee calls for the home team.

Nice call here...the under 195 is my only play of the night. G/L on your SA play.

africanroller · 12-04-08, 03:08 PM

I appreciate your opinions on the Hawaii game but we will just have to wait and see. This is not the high powered Hawaii team of the past years but quite a watered down version. A Hawaii team that has used 3 Qbs all season ans 1 that has absolutely no running ability at all in Daniel Libre. Cincy has giving up and average of 112 rushing yards a game and that also came against Donald Brown, Pat White, Murray and Mccoy.

Hawaii has played 3 good teams and got dismantled by all three Florida 56-10, Oregon State 45-7, Boise St 27-7.

Cincy lost 2 games. Oklahoma and Uconn but beat West Virginia in WV and Pitt.

Also last weeks game against Washington St was just pathetic. Favorite by 29 points over one of the worst Div 1 teams on the planet and win 24-10? Wash St was held scoreless 3 times and held to a fg twice.

But the reason why I like them so much is the fact that Brian Kelly decided to stay at Cincy. I think these kids are going to straight out play to say thanks.

Maybe I dont suggest west coast trips, booze and ladies but these are the stats im going with.

cnleaf · 12-04-08, 03:14 PM

SA +4.5
SA under 195 (small play)
If SA is going to win this game, they have to go for some defense. Last game DEN got almost 60% field goal shooting and 50% 3pts shooting. It wont happen again tonite. SA still got the best defense components.

wangichu · 12-04-08, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

CK Mafia,

We have ourselves a live one to put a correction on today. Everyone go look at the thread "Raptors fire coach Sam Mitchell" started by betplom.

There is an entry by a gentleman named MJFtheGenius that I found extremely racist.

As a favor for me, and all persons of any nationality or walk of life, I would like for those true members of the CK Mafia to put a correction on this gentleman and let him know your thoughts on the subject that he introduced for no apparent good reason. It cannot go unnoticed, and it deserves commentary. I was shocked and offended. Have your way with him, but do it in a manner that is with class so we can keep our pack together.

Let him know that we are in the building.

I normally just prefer not to even acknowledge ignorant rejects like him, but as you asked, I broke it down for him... probably could have written another 2 pages on that issue and turned it in for a grade, but he'll have a hard enough time comprehending the long post i left as is...

wangichu · 12-04-08, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by africanroller

I appreciate your opinions on the Hawaii game but we will just have to wait and see. This is not the high powered Hawaii team of the past years but quite a watered down version. A Hawaii team that has used 3 Qbs all season ans 1 that has absolutely no running ability at all in Daniel Libre. Cincy has giving up and average of 112 rushing yards a game and that also came against Donald Brown, Pat White, Murray and Mccoy.

Hawaii has played 3 good teams and got dismantled by all three Florida 56-10, Oregon State 45-7, Boise St 27-7.

Cincy lost 2 games. Oklahoma and Uconn but beat West Virginia in WV and Pitt.

Also last weeks game against Washington St was just pathetic. Favorite by 29 points over one of the worst Div 1 teams on the planet and win 24-10? Wash St was held scoreless 3 times and held to a fg twice.

But the reason why I like them so much is the fact that Brian Kelly decided to stay at Cincy. I think these kids are going to straight out play to say thanks.

Maybe I dont suggest west coast trips, booze and ladies but these are the stats im going with.

check me if i'm wrong, but cincy has already locked up that bowl game haven't they? if that's the case, they really don't have much to play for anyways... that and hawaii is a live dog... one of those teams that vastly overperforms at home, feeding off the crowd and such... i also think there is something worth saying for playing in that time zone... most players are used to getting ready for bed come halftime in hawaii... i've heard that dogs are the way to go this week, and this is one that i like too... although i may just play the over, because if i'm betting on hawaii in the first place, i'm making the assertion that they can score on cincy, so i may as well just give myself a few different ways of letting that happen.

wangichu · 12-04-08, 04:09 PM

as for the raiders... i know they are that bad, but so is everyone in that division for the most part, and i remember them covering in SD last year. that and the line has gone down from 10 to 9 with 75% of $ on the chargers... i'll probably just keep it small, but i'm going to make a small play on the raiders tonight... yeah they suck, but so do the chargers and there's enough bad blood here to get them up for this game.

africanroller · 12-04-08, 04:20 PM

Cincy is the Big East Champs sitting at #13 in the country. I never buy the part about nothing to play for in College Football. For many its the last game of their careers and for others its time to put up that last performance for NFL scouts.

Tony Pike and Gilyard show in the land of the Rainbows.

chipper8888 · 12-04-08, 04:21 PM

fair point on the total for tonights game - will likely give that a miss now

heading over to the other forum to put the hit on now

wangichu · 12-04-08, 05:00 PM

i'm sticking to spurs half and game in the NBA... too many variables in that other game, and you're right CK... both of these teams have been better on the road this year...

as far as the half goes... spurs know as well as any team that the best way to win on the road is to come out fast and take the crowd out of it early by taking a lead into the half... they did a pretty good job of that last year, just struggled to finish on the road a lot... even into the playoffs. add to their level of professionalism the fact that they have revenge on the mind and desparately want to get that losing taste (lost two straight) out of their mouths asap, and the nugs should also come out a little complacent due to that blowout they just finished up in their last game. I like the spurs for the game, but even if they don't win the game SU, they should win the first half.

SA +2.5 1st half
SA +4

OAK +9 (small play)

Netprofit · 12-04-08, 05:49 PM

CK,

I am relatively new at SBR and have found this thread to be most useful for NBA daily.

2 questions:

1. When we are confident that the Dog has a good chance to win not only covering, for example Spurs today, what is the logic of not playing some ML instead sticking only to the Spread + points?

2. About line movement, I understand the reverse line movement part but not when the line shift slightly when money is pouring on one team in the same direction, we still make the same play just buying back the additional "point"?

Thank you in advance as I am only learning.

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 06:24 PM

Netprofit,

Good question, I am playing the moneyline as well for the Spurs but lightly, as I feel that there is more value in taking the points as I can put up more on it with the additional comfort of having basically 6 points to work with, as a Denver win by 4 is a push and I get my money back. I didn't recommend a moneyline play as I don't think it's worth playing for $500.00

As far as line movement is concerned, the line shifted slightly in favor of San Antonio from 4.5 to 4 with no less than 70% of bettors on Denvers' side. With 70%, the line should have gone to 5 instead of 4. So with that in mind buying back the half point puts you on top of the key number (or even number if you will) and thus makes you have in effect a 6 point cushion with the hook applied. 4.5 and 5 are the same play basically as it would take 6 to beat you. In this case from a value standpoint, only a hook is needed. Had the line been 3, then I would have bought a whole point to put me back onto the key number (4) and get the 6 point cushion, as a half point would only put you behind the lower key number (4) with a 3.5. Which means that a 4 point loss would cost you your money.

Hope that explanation is sufficient to help you in the future as a guide to getting both on, under (when taking a favorite) or on top of the key numbers. Always try to stay off of odd numbers when wagering on basketball games.

danrman · 12-04-08, 06:39 PM

suns and denver for me

BigMoneyMan · 12-04-08, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

africanroller,

You let everyone that you know that something is seriously wrong, and Cincy won't win that game by 3 touchdowns without divine intervention. They have not played not one single game in pacific standard time this year. Don't overlook that fact. It is very important. Then there's the distractions in Hawaii, the partying, the lifestyle, the girls, etc. Then on top of that Hawaii's good. There is reverse line movement on the game as well. Don't you know that the line went down from Cincy -8 to -7 with only 13% of bettors on Hawaii's side? That alone made this a power play. I am going to buy a hook and lay it at Hawaii+7.5 I don't think that Cincy can beat them by more than a touchdown. Like most WAC teams Hawaii is a highpowered offense that throws on darn near every play. Interesting fact: Hawaii actually averages more yards on offense than Cincy and Hawaii only surrenders 40 yards more on defense than Cincy (and that's hard to do against those WAC teams). Do your homework, mate.

BigMoney,

There you go again. You're betting to win, being predictable, and that is not a good way to wager. We have this talk all the time. Denver is the public pick. Line up on the side of the book and do the exact opposite of what your heart feels. I'll ask you the same question that i asked you last night. With fully loaded teams (San Antonio played without Ginobili and Parker for one half the last time these two played), how many rings has George Karl earned, and how many has Popovich earned? Which means that Popovich is a better big game coach. I seriously think that Popovich could take Denvers' team and win more games than Karl will.

This qualifies as a big game. Yet you are giving that Championship caliber coach more points than usual in Denver. Whatever. Bet to lose, and that's how to win. Only 30% of bettors on San Antonio and the line has gone down to 4 on some books. That's reverse movement. I took it back to 4.5, which means that Denver must win by 6 or more. No way.Not against a fully loaded Spurs team.

It isn't wise to pass judgement on the Spurs when they weren't playing with a full deck up until now.

San Antonio lost at home to Detroit. Denver blew out Toronto. I can't be predicatble and take the team that blew out a team. Remember the level of competition in the previous game. Toronto is not a great road team like Detroit is. Do what you like. I placed my wager already. I am that confident. I don't need to watch the line anymore. I have already seen enough.

As far as Dallas and Phoenix is concerned. Dallas is not good enough of a home team for me to place a wager on them. Likewise Phoenix is too poorly coached for me to wager on them as well. You're on you own on that one. I give the edge to Phoenix as they are a better road team than Dallas is a home team. But that game won't see any of my money.

Bro, it was friggin 6.00am. All I said is I wasn't convinced. Wow who pissed in your Cornflakes?

Well after further review. I am taking the Spurs and you know why. Also I will investigate this F-ckhead and lay the hammer on him. If anyone is going to get kicked out for making racist remarks it better be me Covers style. LMAO.
Anyway after we spoke I have decided to take the Raiders on a small bet. I know I know. For the NBA I am taking the Mavericks and yes the Spurs! GL

BigMoneyMan · 12-04-08, 07:13 PM

Getting conflicting information on Dallas so I am dropping them.

maddogmadden86 · 12-04-08, 07:37 PM

big or CK what do you think about the spurs at half?

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 07:42 PM

BigMoney, just send me the money. Don't give it away on the Raiders, lol! There is not enough money at the Federal National Reserve to inspire me to place a wager on that inept team. The only that they cover is to stumble into it. The only way that the Chargers don't cover would be to give the game away with turnovers, which is also highly likely as they have been stinking up the joint lately. Good luck, homes.

P.S. My Cream Chow-Chow Saadique pissed on my cornflakes a couple of days ago when I decided to eat outside in the back yard and forgot about my food when I had to go inside to answer my phone. Just kiddin'! Actually he knocked it over and ate it. Bad dog!

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 07:44 PM

maddog,

Wang is taking them in the 1st half, so it must be a good play. He is nothing if not thorough. If I make any addotional wager on that game it will probably be at the 2nd half, although I highly doubt it. One of the teams would have to be up by 16 or more for me to do it. I think I'm just gonna let it ride, homes.

maddogmadden86 · 12-04-08, 07:54 PM

no dought lets do it CK

cocknocker · 12-04-08, 09:23 PM

Somebody call the police! Dallas is killing the Suns. And if it continues deep into the third quarter, Coach Porter is gonna pull the plug on his veteran players and garbage time wil be the end of this story.

cnleaf · 12-04-08, 09:30 PM

DAL finally plays some good b-ball and makes jump shots. Fire...