Primetime NBA Thread

[primetimej]

Doing the ATS spread fade system I have with this site was pretty successful (over 20+ units in one month), but I realized that there were spots when I should have gone with it and spots where I should have stayed away even though the system said different. This thread will include my games that I like for a given day and will include ATS fade spreads if I feel an edge in the line. I will play sides, totals, and props, and never more than three plays in one day. Match the plays if you like, and fade them if you don't, either way best of luck to you all.
First game of this thread is an under that I like.

Pacers vs Grizzlies under 173.5

[primetimej]

Adding

Brooklyn +3.5 - 1 Unit.

[primetimej]

One more for tonight

76ers +6.5 (Buy half point)

[innovation]

GL have a gander at Portland too.

[primetimej]

For the record most plays will be one unit. In some cases, I will have a few 2 unit plays here and there and very rarely a 3 unit play. Yesterday were all 1 unit.

For the day 3-0 +3.0 Units.

YTD Sides 2-0 +2.0 Units
YTD Totals 1-0 +1.0 Units
YTD Props 0-0
YTD Total 3-0 +3.0 Units

[thunderous]

How come u aren't posting on the other thread anymore? BOL on ur plays here....

[primetimej]

hey thunder,

I just started to feel that the system was moving south, and the back-testing on it wasn't great either. I will still make bets to fade ATS big win or lose teams, but just more situational. The system was good and I'm glad for everyone that profited from it, I just want to avoid losing any followers money. As I stated above, I will continue to post those type of plays from time to time here, but more of games I like instead of just the fading.

[primetimej]

Was hoping the line would move in my favor with the public hitting the other side so hard, but I like one tonight. Might be back on later for another, but I'm waiting on the right line. For now just one

Cavs +4.5 - 1 Unit

[primetimej]

Adding a prop in tonight that I like a lot.

Monta Ellis vs Evan Turner - Most Points Scored
Monta Ellis -3.5 - 1 Unit

[thunderous]

hey thunder,

I just started to feel that the system was moving south, and the back-testing on it wasn't great either. I will still make bets to fade ATS big win or lose teams, but just more situational. The system was good and I'm glad for everyone that profited from it, I just want to avoid losing any followers money. As I stated above, I will continue to post those type of plays from time to time here, but more of games I like instead of just the fading.

Yeah I would agree on that...the few spots where I didn't like the system was team with key players missing like Love for Wolves...I chased that for a game or 2 and then just let it go. Another thing that didn't work for me was the 2 unit play and did avoid any time a team was a 2 unit play. But have to say that it did more good than harm so all in all not bad.
Will be keeping an eye here on your plays to follow so GL!

[primetimej]

Adding
OKC vs Clippers under 200.5 - 1 unit

[primetimej]

For the day 1-2 +-1.2 Units.

YTD Sides 3-0 +3.0 Units
YTD Totals 1-1 -0.1 Units
YTD Props 0-1 - 1.1 Units

YTD Total 4-2 +1.8 Units

[primetimej]

Here are my leans for today, anyone have any insight they can provide.

Charlotte +6
Houston -2
Lakers +4
Portland -2

Memphis vs Lakers Under 188
Phoenix Under 203

[primetimej]

Did some further analysis, and locked in the below bets.

Houston -2.5 - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
Lakers +4.5 (Buy half point) - 1 Unit - Lose -1.2 Units
Portland -1 - 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units

Phoenix vs Sacramento Under 203.5 - 1 Unit - Win +1.0 Units

[primetimej]

For the day 2-2 +0.7 Units.

YTD Sides 4-2 +2.7 Units
YTD Totals 2-1 +0.9 Units
YTD Props 0-1 -1.1 Units

YTD Total 6-4 +2.5 Units

[primetimej]

1/24/13

Anthony vs Pierce - Most Points Scored
Paul Pierce +9½ Pts

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think houston single-handedly killed your old system

i have been playing around with killersport's nba query engine and found some very interesting interactions between ATS streaks, OU streaks and their opposites. i.e. ATS streaks affect the OVER/UNDER alot and vice-versa. much more than the ATS streak affects future ATS results. seems like teams on terrible ATS streaks go under alot. and vice-versa. which makes sense as shell-shocked teams probably slow it down and emphasize defense. highly confident teams probably play more high tempo. can't remember the exact way O/U streaks affected ATS results though. have to look back into it.

[primetimej]

Hey Moxy,

Ya Houston hurt, but its ok I still follow suit with the fading I just bet selectively. I'm glad youve found some other trends that work and keep me posted on how they do.

[primetimej]

Adding one more prop for tonight

Blake Griffin - Total Points
Under 21½ Pts

[primetimej]

Anthony vs Pierce - Most Points Scored
Paul Pierce +9½ Pts - Win +1.00 Units

Blake Griffin - Total Points
Under 21½ Pts - Win +1.00 Units

For the day 2-0 +2.0 Units.

YTD Sides 4-2 +2.7 Units
YTD Totals 2-1 +0.9 Units
YTD Props 2-1 +0.9 Units

YTD Total 8-4 +4.5 Units

[primetimej]

1/25/13

Timberwolves vs Wizards Under 187.5 - 1 Unit
Nets vs Grizzlies Under 177.5 - 1 Unit
Lakers -4.5 (Buy half point) - 1 Unit

[primetimej]

Adding a prop for the lakers game, that just updated a little while ago.

Kobe Bryant - Total Points

Over 29½ Pts - 2 Units

[primetimej]

Timberwolves vs Wizards Under 187.5 -1.1 Units
Nets vs Grizzlies Under 177.5 -1.1 Units
Lakers -4.5 (Buy half point) - Win +1.00 UnitKobe Bryant - Total Points Over 29½ Pts - Lose -2.20 Units
For the day 1-3 -3.4 Units.

YTD Sides 5-2 +3.7 Units
YTD Totals 2-3 -1.3 Units
YTD Props 2-2 -1.3 Units

YTD Total 9-7 +1.1 Units

[primetimej]

Here's whp I got tonight. I like some dogs to play good tonight

76ers +3.5 2 Units
Nets +4.5 (But half point) 1 Unit
Kings +12.5 1 Unit
Blazers +1 2 Units
__________

[primetimej]

76ers +3.5 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units
Nets +4.5 (But half point) 1 Unit - Lose -1.2 Units
Kings +12.5 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
Blazers +1 2 Units - Win +2.0 Units

For the day 2-2 +1.7 Units.

YTD Sides 7-4 +5.4 Units
YTD Totals 2-3 -1.3 Units
YTD Props 2-2 -1.3 Units

YTD Total 11-9 +2.8 Units

[primetimej]

For the early game I like a few props with no juice

Wade vs Pierce - Most Points Scored by
Paul Pierce +1½ Pts - even 1 unit

Bosh vs Garnett - Most Points+Rebounds made by
Chris Bosh -2½ Pts+Rebs - even 1 unit

[primetimej]

Adding these two

Lakers +3.5

Durant vs Bryant - Most Points
Kobe Bryant +1 Pts +115

[primetimej]

Adding for late games

Hornets +7.5
Blazers vs Clippers Under 191.5

Horford vs Chandler - Most Points+Rebounds
Tyson Chandler +4½ Pts+Rebs -120

[primetimej]

Wade vs Pierce - Most Points Scored by
Paul Pierce +1½ Pts - even 1 unit - Win +1.0 Units

Bosh vs Garnett - Most Points+Rebounds made by
Chris Bosh -2½ Pts+Rebs - even 1 unit Lose -1.0 Units

Lakers +3.5 - Win +1.0 Units

Durant vs Bryant - Most Points
Kobe Bryant +1 Pts +115 - Lose -.9 Units

Hornets +7.5 - Win +1.0 Units
Blazers vs Clippers Under 191.5 - Win +1.0 Units

Horford vs Chandler - Most Points+Rebounds
Tyson Chandler +4½ Pts+Rebs -120 - Lose -1.2 Units

For the day 4-3 +0.9 Units.

YTD Sides 9-4 +7.4 Units
YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
YTD Props 3-5 -3.4 Units

YTD Total 15-12 +3.7 Units

[primetimej]

Here's who I got for tonight all for one unit.

Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb

Indiana Pacers +5½
Philadelphia 76ers +1½
Toronto Raptors +1½

[esulima]

Here's who I got for tonight all for one unit.
76ers looking fishy whats up with that line
Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb

Indiana Pacers +5½
Philadelphia 76ers +1½
Toronto Raptors +1½

76ers looking fishy whats up with that line

[primetimej]

Davis vs Lopez - Most Points+Rebounds Made
Brook Lopez -2½ Pts + Reb - Lose -1.1 Units

Indiana Pacers +5½ - Win +1.0 Units
Philadelphia 76ers +1½ - Lose -1.1 Units
Toronto Raptors +1½ - Lose -1.1 Units

For the day 1-3 - 2.3 Units.

YTD Sides 10-6 +6.2 Units
YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
YTD Props 3-6 -4.5 Units

YTD Total 16-15 +1.4 Units

[primetimej]

Davis vs Howard - Most Points + Rebounds Made - NBA
Anthony Davis +7½ Pts + Reb - 1 Unit

Cleveland Cavaliers +1½ - 1 Unit
Detroit Pistons +1½ - 1 Unit

[primetimej]

Davis vs Howard - Most Points + Rebounds Made - NBA
Anthony Davis +7½ Pts + Reb - 1 Unit - Win +1.0 Unit

Cleveland Cavaliers +1½ - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units
Detroit Pistons +1½ - 1 Unit - Lose -1.1 Units

For the day 1-2 - 1.2 Units.

YTD Sides 10-8 +4.0 Units
YTD Totals 3-3 -0.3 Units
YTD Props 4-6 -3.5 Units

YTD Total 17-17 +0.2 Units

At this point I'm at best a fade. Hopefully I'll have a few good ones in a row since the past few days have been real bad.

[thunderous]

happens....up n down part of the game. I am sure you will come back...GL!