Leans for Tuesday 12/2/08

[cocknocker]

A wise man once told me that in a home and home tilt take the team that lost the previous game. All of which leads me to take Philadelphia in the rubber match with the Bulls. The Bulls won the first game in Philly 103-92. Now the teams move to Chicago, where Philly is 3-1 ats. I like my chances with the spread being Chicago-3. Give me them points! Philly seems to play better when the odds are stacke against them anyway.

Ok folks, no laughing. I am standing by this pick amid the laughter. The Wizards are playing the Nets, a team that has won 3 straight games (so I already have to fade them just on that alone) on the long west coast road trip. With this being their first home game after tha long road trip, I will step in and take the rested Wizards who are playing a little better these days. They are catching the Nets at an opportune time. I like the points in this one as the Wizards are getting 6 points and probably more when the sun comes up. This looks to be a complete mismatch, butthe numbers don't lie. the Wizards are 3-0 ats in their last three games in Soprano country covering spreads of 4, 6.5, and 9.5. I like the Bullets to pick up the ats win and possibly win this game outright.


Toronto is playing a peculiar brand of basketball, but with this being an out of conference game, i have to take another shot at them on this road trip. The Lakers can make any team look bad, so I can look beyond that loss. But what about the first half against a Denver team that the public will be riding? The Raptors are 2-1 ats in Denver overall, but as far as the 1st half is concerned, the average score between these teams is 52.9-53.1 in favor of Denver. So if the 1st half line is 3 or more, i will take the Raptors in the 1st half. I mean this is basically the same Raptors team as last year when Jermaine O'Neal wasn't there anyway. With O'Neal out, he only player on the floor that is new between both teams is Chauncey Billups.


Philly+3
Washington+6 (or more if not I will buy a hook)
Toronto 1st half (if +3 or more only)

P.S. CK Mafia, there is a PC Play coming on Wednesday

[The_Kid]

I was looking at that home/home thing too, CK. I remember OKC/New Orleans awhile back with OKC getting completely destroyed the first time. Second time around, they hung around and covered. Do you know where you can find data and stats regarding that home/home thing?

[rdgn123]

A wise man once told me that in a home and home tilt take the team that lost the previous game. All of which leads me to take Philadelphia in the rubber match with the Bulls. The Bulls won the first game in Philly 103-92. Now the teams move to Chicago, where Philly is 3-1 ats. I like my chances with the spread being Chicago-3. Give me them points! Philly seems to play better when the odds are stacke against them anyway.

Ok folks, no laughing. I am standing by this pick amid the laughter. The Wizards are playing the Nets, a team that has won 3 straight games (so I already have to fade them just on that alone) on the long west coast road trip. With this being their first home game after tha long road trip, I will step in and take the rested Wizards who are playing a little better these days. They are catching the Nets at an opportune time. I like the points in this one as the Wizards are getting 6 points and probably more when the sun comes up. This looks to be a complete mismatch, butthe numbers don't lie. the Wizards are 3-0 ats in their last three games in Soprano country covering spreads of 4, 6.5, and 9.5. I like the Bullets to pick up the ats win and possibly win this game outright.


Toronto is playing a peculiar brand of basketball, but with this being an out of conference game, i have to take another shot at them on this road trip. The Lakers can make any team look bad, so I can look beyond that loss. But what about the first half against a Denver team that the public will be riding? The Raptors are 2-1 ats in Denver overall, but as far as the 1st half is concerned, the average score between these teams is 52.9-53.1 in favor of Denver. So if the 1st half line is 3 or more, i will take the Raptors in the 1st half. I mean this is basically the same Raptors team as last year when Jermaine O'Neal wasn't there anyway. With O'Neal out, he only player on the floor that is new between both teams is Chauncey Billups.


Philly+3
Washington+6 (or more if not I will buy a hook)
Toronto 1st half (if +3 or more only)

P.S. CK Mafia, there is a PC Play coming on Wednesday

completely agreed with your first 2 picks... too many people are jumping on the bulls and nets as "easy" picks. they are in for a surprise come tomorrow.

[cocknocker]

The Kid, I don't know where you can find the stats for such a thing, i just know that it is a good practice to do so. I am anxiously awaiting the line for Denver and Toronto for tomorrow. I love out of conference plays, and now that the Raptors bodies have gotten used to the time zone change, I think that they hang in there for the first half and keep it within one possession. For the game, I don't know, but quality teams usually respond well to being blown out. Toronto will have Jermaine O'Neal back for this game, although I don't think he will start. But he will help the team with rebounding when he does get in the game. He has been shooting on the side in practices and says that the extra work has him confident that he will knock down the open jumprs with ease (although I feel he will be doing more stick back work since he is a good offensive rebounder) helping toopen things up even more for Bosh, who is having a monster year and is totally unguardable right now.


BTW gentlemen, Styles likes Utah's team total to go over 107 (projected).

Sacramento has given up an average of 112.5 points per game over their last 3 games, and Utah has averaged 110.5 against the Kings over the last 8 games played against the Kings overall. The injuries to Utah's team (Kirilenko and Boozer)will not matter, as their scoring production will be replaced by their deep bench. They will just shoot more threes, and Sacramento is third from last in 3 point defense, giving up 7.7 or basically 8 three pointers per game on average (yikes). .

[wangichu]

I am most likely adding two plays.... SA -4 and SAC +whatever

san antonio got beat by detroit twice last year and the spread dropping high combined with the key players (parker and giniboli) just coming back has this team in full swing. They have won 7 of 9 if i'm right and detroit isn't quite right

sacramento i just love to bet on in big games as big home dogs, especially with epic revenge on the mind

[vassman86]

Hey wang, Sacramento is looking like a good pick. They were embarrassed so badly in Utah; they're going to want revenge. I think they'll win this outright.
Sacramento 1st half: in the previous game, they were tied 50-50 after the first half. I think the Kings will come out strong in the beginning of the game.
Over 210 or whatever the total may be.

[Devon]

The Kings are 6-1 in their last 7 home games against the Jazz.

[The_Kid]

sacramento i just love to bet on in big games as big home dogs, especially with epic revenge on the mind

If I played the Kings, would this be an example of the home/home series, CK? Sacramento played Utah about four or five days ago in Salt Lake and now they get the Jazz at Arco.

[cocknocker]

The Kid,

Yes the home and home factor makes Sacramento an excellent play tonight. But the line isn't out yet, so I haven't been able to get Style's spin on it. I have the feeling that all of Utah's injuries to key players is what is holding up the line. Their injury list reads like a M.A.S.H. unit. Boozer, Kirilenko, Collins, Knight, and Harpring are all out for tonight. So the Jazz look vulnerable. I am telling all of you the same thing that I told my wife: A man laying down in the field is more dangerous than a man standing brandishing a sword- Frederick Douglass.

The over looks like a better option on this game, as the Kings ineptitude on the defensive end will make it easy for Utah to stay in the game and have a chance late to win. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 contests.

[zackattack]

A wise man once told me that in a home and home tilt take the team that lost the previous game. All of which leads me to take Philadelphia in the rubber match with the Bulls. The Bulls won the first game in Philly 103-92. Now the teams move to Chicago, where Philly is 3-1 ats. I like my chances with the spread being Chicago-3. Give me them points! Philly seems to play better when the odds are stacke against them anyway.

Ok folks, no laughing. I am standing by this pick amid the laughter. The Wizards are playing the Nets, a team that has won 3 straight games (so I already have to fade them just on that alone) on the long west coast road trip. With this being their first home game after tha long road trip, I will step in and take the rested Wizards who are playing a little better these days. They are catching the Nets at an opportune time. I like the points in this one as the Wizards are getting 6 points and probably more when the sun comes up. This looks to be a complete mismatch, butthe numbers don't lie. the Wizards are 3-0 ats in their last three games in Soprano country covering spreads of 4, 6.5, and 9.5. I like the Bullets to pick up the ats win and possibly win this game outright.


Toronto is playing a peculiar brand of basketball, but with this being an out of conference game, i have to take another shot at them on this road trip. The Lakers can make any team look bad, so I can look beyond that loss. But what about the first half against a Denver team that the public will be riding? The Raptors are 2-1 ats in Denver overall, but as far as the 1st half is concerned, the average score between these teams is 52.9-53.1 in favor of Denver. So if the 1st half line is 3 or more, i will take the Raptors in the 1st half. I mean this is basically the same Raptors team as last year when Jermaine O'Neal wasn't there anyway. With O'Neal out, he only player on the floor that is new between both teams is Chauncey Billups.


Philly+3
Washington+6 (or more if not I will buy a hook)
Toronto 1st half (if +3 or more only)

P.S. CK Mafia, there is a PC Play coming on Wednesday

this is probably a dumb question but what is PC play?

[cocknocker]

zackattack, it means Pimp Clinic. The PC's come from all different walks of life and occupations. They are all from the Bay Area. One actually runs a brothel of sorts, another is a owner of his own construction company, another is a sanitation worker, and then there's me a professional wagerer and cultivator. When we fnd a play we all agree on, it's called a PC Play.

I have already played Toronto 1st half as it was exactly what I thought it would be (+3). I also have already played Philly+3, after which I did see that the line went down to Philly+2 soon thereafter, which is a very good thing (reverse movement for the Sixers with only 14% of bettors on their side). As far as Washington is concerned, there is only 7% of bettors on their side, so the line has gone up to -6.5 for the Nets, which I will gladly take in a game that bettors are pounding the Nets thinking that it is a free payday. I will wait until right before gametime and pound the Wizards+7.5 or so.

As far as the Sacramento Kings line, it is the Kings-2, and I was spot on about the total which ended up being 209, one point lower than i expected. It will go up however. I am waiting for the team total line to report to Styles. I assume that she will have her personal pick sometime around noon or so.

BTW, I had to take the Lakers-8 on a small play. I don't see how Indiana will have the guns to handle the Lakers depth, as they come in waves. The Lakers usually chomp up and spit out lower tier teams.

So an update of my official plays goes:

Toronto+3 1st half (Done)
Lakers-8 (Done)
Philly+3 (Done)
Washington+6.5 (waiting for more points to be added on)

Styles: Waiting on the announcement for the team total for Utah, eyeballing the over for th game as well.

[IrishGuy82]

I have the Wiz up to +7 already! Keep hitting those Nets...

I am on the edge of picking the +3 Toronto 1st half. Does Billups make a big difference to the history of close halftime scores? Since Iverson ave'd about the same PPG do they just cancel eachother out?

[cocknocker]

The Utah team total is listed at 103.5. I have relayed this message to the Missus. She doesn't like the spread unless it has movement in Utah's favor. If the spread moves in Utah's favor and they become the favorites, then she indicates that she will elect to take the Kings, but as stated, only as a dog, due to the home and home situation. I myself am not touching this one unless BigMoney is touching it. I don't like this game due to the nature of teams overachieving when starters are out. So I won't be playing the sides.

If anything, I like the team total for Utah idea she came up with due to Sacramento's putrid defense. You can always count on them to give up 100 points. Looks like some good late night money to go to bed with.

[chipper8888]

Hate Washington but will bow top CK's better judgement on that one
also the like the Spurs tonight

[Broncos9798]

Take Denver Nuggets -5.5

Don’t look at my name and think that I’m writing with a bias, I’m currently 11-7 betting on the Nuggets this year. I will give you the pick when the Nuggets won’t cover when its due, however Toronto will get worked by the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets record is nearly the exact same Straight Up and Against the Spread, in other word hot once we received the very consistent Chauncey Billups. Carmelo Anthony's injury was determined to not be serious. As soon as Denver slows down Chris Bosh with their new look defense this game is sure to cover. With the streak the Nuggets have had since getting Billups take the cheap line at home.

Picks: Nuggets -5.5

Opinion Picks: San Antonio(Healthy) -4.5, Utah +2

[shoebox]

I smell a homer??

[Broncos9798]

Nice Punctuation

Thanks for the intelligent response Shoebox. I guess though if you want to call me a homer it is probly good that the Nuggets are 6-2-1 ATS at Home.

[cocknocker]

Alright now fellas, this is not Coversexperts. The threads are empty there and no valuable information is being exchanged. SO there's plenty of room for back and forth comments. Insults and digs are commonplace at that site, but not here. We (the CK Mafia) don't need any of that in here. Everyone is welcome to come here to intelligently discuss their opinions and give their spin on wagering. All that we want is the information. Not the drama. We are real wagerers, not actors. Gabeesh?

[Devon]

Does this betting option look enticing to pick one, CK? I'm might have a small wager or is it just a sucker card option handed by the Sportsbooker.

LA Lakers @ Indiana - Wire To Wire (Team to lead match at end of every quarter)
LA Lakers Leads Match at the End of All 4 Quarters 1.90
Indiana Leads Match at the End of All 4 Quarters 9.40
Any Other Result 2.20

[Broncos9798]

Gabeesh

Nuggets 6-2 at home ATS.
Toronto 3-6 against a team with a winning record.

Good luck all today!

[Broncos9798]

Billups Vs. Iverson

Irish I dont want to defend the Nuggets first half because I believe that either way it is a sucker bet. However I will defend Billups over Iverson. Iverson is an amazing player but risky at that. Billups may score very similar but the chemistry and consistency he brings is unbelievable. Denver has the talent to compete with any team, however they dont have the consistency to do that. Billups brings that talent together(Carmelo, JR Smith, Nene) and allows them take over games. Points may be similar but chemistry and record is key component. Denver will end up on top in my mind....in the first I have no idea and dont care to wager on that.

I have the Wiz up to +7 already! Keep hitting those Nets...

I am on the edge of picking the +3 Toronto 1st half. Does Billups make a big difference to the history of close halftime scores? Since Iverson ave'd about the same PPG do they just cancel eachother out?

[shoebox]

Thanks for the intelligent response Shoebox. I guess though if you want to call me a homer it is probly good that the Nuggets are 6-2-1 ATS at Home.

Bronco not trying to offend you, and sorry if I did. Im just saying its easy to bet with your heart as I have before and lost my a$$. I live in LA and a huge lakers fan and its nice to see my team not referred to as the fakers anymore, but well see what happen down the stretch. All in all no beef and good luck with your plays.

CK what you think about Duke +2 against purdue?
I think duke is the play here since last time they were dogs they won outright against a quality NC squad. This one seems to easy to pass up. Your take??

[nick2060]

just a heads up to those who wanna give portland 1Q @ the knicks a look. They're -2 and heres some info, portlands last couple of 1Q's.
vs. Sacramento 27-21 for portland
vs. Miami 37-17 for portland
vs. New Orleans 31-26 for portland
@ Detroit 25-13 for portland

And Portland @ the knicks 1Q for the past 4:
portland 36, New york 24
portland 26, New york 20
portland 28, New York 26 (in a 103-92 loss to the knicks)
portland 23 New york 31 (113-105 for the knicks in full time)

Portlands been playing pretty nice lately too, worth a loook

[nick2060]

also worth pointin out the kings are now +1

[cocknocker]

shoebox,

I don't like betting on college basketball prior to conference play. To prove my point, i took USC yesterday, and they promptly laid an egg on me! Duke is good with the name recognition and all. But I don't know enough about the teams and players to give good advice on it. I figure that by the time teams enter conference play, the kinks have been worked out and the averages of the players and teams have been kind of set i nstone. I usually will defer to pronk for college plays as that is his forte'. he likes Duke to win by 6 points. So his answer is my answer.

[cocknocker]

nick2060,

That's good info. I will relay that info to the Missus now and let's see if she can give a pick on the side in that game. She said that if the Kings are the dog, then she would play them. How much of a dog it will take for her to play the side, I don't know. I'll have to get back to you on that one.

BTW, the team total for the Jazz has gone all the way up to 105 for those still interested, which means that it is a sound play. if it is still at 105 by gametime, buy it back down to 103.5

[Broncos9798]

No offense here shoe. Just for a side note I bet the largest amount I have so far this year against the Nuggets when they played the Lakers(In LA). Im honestly betting for or against the Nuggets by the numbers. Im not referring to the Nuggets beating the Lakers in the playoffs or "down the stretch", I was referring to the Nuggets beating the Raptors. GL today.

What do you think with Lakers in Indiana?

I live in LA and a huge lakers fan and its nice to see my team not referred to as the fakers anymore, but well see what happen down the stretch. All in all no beef and good luck with your plays.

[shoebox]

Bronco,

Indiana has history of playing up and playing down due to competition they face.
First game home off a road trip Indiana plays fairly well so I like Indiana first half
catching +4.5. Plus, LA is known for late starts and is primarily a second half team. However, the Lakers talent would show for second half
mismatches with the big men leading to an easy cover for LA.

Indiana +4.5 1st half
Lakers -8.5 gm

[killersweet]

J.O is playing for the Raptors tonight. So they are going to put a better effort for sure. So would be a close call. I like the over in that game.

[africanroller]

I took the +3 in the 1st half. Im thinking this will be about a 5 point game but I think the Raptors will keep it close or have the lead in the first half

[mmaddness08]

Crap Pronk is on Duke. I liked Purdue as a small favorite here at home and the Public riding the Duke bandwagon and sharp money coming in early on Purdue. Good success at these public numbers in spread on Purdue. Loving Philly in the NBA and the Lakers buying the line down a little. Good Luck all.

[Broncos9798]

Shoe,

I agree with the late start approach to the Lakers. The whole start of this season I have been going against the Lakers and Celtics in the first half so I can fire on a cheap second half line. There have been a number of games that that both the Celtics and Lakers were close first half and then they blow the team out of the water second half. I primarily only do that when they are home but if the Pacers are close at half time I think I will fire tonight.

GL Tonight,

The guy that watches and studies every Denver Professional Sport game but couldnt pick Denver vs. KC -9 for the life of him.

Bronco,

Indiana has history of playing up and playing down due to competition they face.
First game home off a road trip Indiana plays fairly well so I like Indiana first half
catching +4.5. Plus, LA is known for late starts and is primarily a second half team. However, the Lakers talent would show for second half
mismatches with the big men leading to an easy cover for LA.

Indiana +4.5 1st half
Lakers -8.5 gm

[maddogmadden86]

nick i like your play with the trailblazers first quarter i was going to wirte up that one myself beat me to it

[vassman86]

Feedback needed!
Utah/Sacramento 1st Half over 103
In the past five games, the first half totals have been 100, 115, 110, 109, 107.
From what I see, it looks like Sacramento plays Utah well at home (3-1 SU over past three seasons, all four games have gone over)

In the past five games, the game totals have been 216, 221, 240, 214, 210.
I'm liking the total for the game to easily exceed 209

[maddogmadden86]

hey CK whats the good word with knightridah hes the missing link to CK MAfia