Would U lay 2K on the Lakers 2nd H?

[JAHgger4noz]

Just looking at the lines and it has Lakers at -750 ML.
2K to win 266.67? Is that worth it to you?
I was thinking Lakers on the -10 spread, then just saw the ML #'s. One thing to lead the lakers at halftime but it's another to also beat them straight up where they are scary as hell in the 2nd Half. To me 266 isnt worth it, even if u think they have a 80%+ chance of winning it. Just wondering which of the sharps or solid cappers here would lay that amount?

[teaserpleaser]

no way thats alot to lose not much to gain... dont do it its a bad bet.

[JAHgger4noz]

I agree teaserpleaser, but what happens after all the homework u have done, u feel at least 90% sure that team WILL win the 2nd H. To some people, as long as they win and make a "+" profit, they could care less if the price tag is large and the return is "small".
I have this rookie friend (sports-betting less than a year), and this guy likes playing the chalk with huge price tags. He'll play lots of -150 , even up to -400 on straight up games for thousands of dollars. i know he would make this -750ML play, but if u have a "top-tier" play that loses less than 10% of the time, wouldnt it be worth it?
Let's say as an example....90% time it hits and 10% it fails.

9 times out of 10 , u win.
So with that price tag (-750),
making a return of 266.67X9=2,400.03
U lose that 1 time, that becomes minus 750.
2,400.03-750= +1,650.03

Even if it hits 80%, and fails 20%
it's a PLUS.
266.67X8=2,133.36
750X2=1,500
2,133.36-1,500= +633.36

If u can find two 2nd H plays per day that are at least "90% top-tier"
it can add up at weeks end. 88% wouldnt cut it, neither would 89%.
Play a maximum 2 plays per day (with a 2nd H ML no more than -750)... a 22,000 bankroll would suffice.
Think I had too much to drink tonight

[Garso]

first flaw in your logic is that if you LOSE ONCE you LOSE 2k NOT 750.... you need to redo your math... you'll see that even if you win 9/10 you'll only make 400... and the odds are much worse than 9/10....

if you want to talk statistics... a 1:1 bet or +100 bet is one that will win once and lose once to break even.... if you're talking about a -750 ML here this is saying that for every 7.5 times the lakers win 2h the Dallas Mavericks will win it once... and I highly feel that the odds of Dallas winning a 2h are greater than once in 7.5 2h's.... if that makes any sense...

[JAHgger4noz]

ergggggh. Yea Garso. I just realized this as I was taking a looong shower to ease the hangover i seriously have. I'm thinking, was that math correct? Then i thought, I hope I didnt seriously post that. LOL
Then I said I better go back, and correct the mistake. It's bad enough I'm a terrible capper, it would be worse if I couldnt perform simple calculations
Yes, the 266.67 return is based on a 2K bet. I calculated the 1 loss as -750, when it should have been -2K.
Dam, u just had to read this before I got back to rectify it, didnt you? Thanks for correcting me.

Definitely learned a valuable lesson. Never....EVER....get intoxicated, attempt any math skills and post on a public forum all at the same time. I will get some sleep. Lots of it.

JeeeeZ.....need to ease up on the from now on in!

[VegasDave]

At -750, you need to win 89% of the time to turn a profit...

Betting 750 to win 100...
89 X 100 = 8900
11 X 750 = 8250
PROFIT 650.

88 X 100 = 8800
12 X 750 = 9000
LOSS 200.

So you are right. Mathematically, it makes perfect sense to bet this if you believe it has a 90% chance of winning or better, because long run you will profit. The question is, can your bankroll take the hit if the 1 in 10 hits a few times in a row?

[Garso]

lmao all good man... im not bashing you or anything... GL on your plays