Write-ups for today's games

[bubblebuttluv]

i did not have time to get all write-ups for tonight's game done by my 7:-5 deadline. I will post the other write-ups with in the hour, but some of the games may have already started. It takes my like 30-45 minutes to cap a game and I have been capping for about the last 6 and a half hours so I am a little wired. admittedly capping this many games may have been biting off a little more than I could chew and I will try to do better tomorrow. I already have my one pick for the night and it revolves around the Pistons/Hawks game

Usual disclaimer: How things will be now is I will post my write-ups and then state my one pick for the night. I am 4 for 4. Tail me if you want, it's your money. On each of my write-ups I have my opinion at the bottom, but then at the end of all my write-ups I will have my pick of the night. This is the format I will use throughout the season. So if you go with a pick from another of my write-ups don't get pissed if it doesn't hit, since that write-up was not for my ONE PICK that night. For tonight later games may hold better value than these early games, but I am going to have some money on something non-basketball related later tonight so that is why I only handicapped the early games. FYI my ONE PICK is the one game I'll have money on each night. Good luck, all! Let's get this paper! IMPORTANT: THESE WRITE-UPS DO NOT FACTOR IN ANY ROSTER CHANGES! (This preface will be copy pasted into all my future threads)


12/26/12 write-ups:

New Orleans Hornets at Orlando Magic:

New Orleans Hornets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 85.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 84
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 90.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 40.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 84.05
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 94

Orlando Magic:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 93.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 98
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 94.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this year
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 45
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 9
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 79.975
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 91.5

The Hornets are ahead in 3 out of 9 categories (3 out of 8, if you don’t count category 4), so the Magic should win straight up. The Hornets number is -8.5 (85.5 – 94) and the Magic 2.25 (93.75 – 91.5). So my raw spread has the Magic favored by 10.75 (2.25 - - 8.5). For my pad the Hornets have one more day of rest so lets give them a point and the game is at Orlando so let’s give the magic a point, and the pad is a wash. 5Dimes has it at Magic -3 and my spread has Magic favored by 10.75. I would either take the Magic at the spread or the Magic ML at -150.

[bubblebuttluv]

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers:

Chicago Bulls:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 95.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 92.25
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 88
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (76)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 39
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 9.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 83.075
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101.75

Indiana Pacers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 94.25
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 96
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 86.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only one game this season (80)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 44
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 69.175
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 86.5

Game was postponed

[bubblebuttluv]

Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards:

Cleveland Cavaliers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 93.25
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 93.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have only played once this season (94)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 37.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 72.9
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 99.25

Washington Wizards:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 83.25
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 93.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 79
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have only played once this season (84)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 44
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 76.825
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 12.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 96.5

The Cavaliers win in 3 out 9 categories, so the Wizards should win straight up. Cleveland’s number is -6 (93.25 – 99.25) and Washington’s number is -13.25 (83.25 – 96.5). So my raw spread is Cleveland favored by 7.25 (-6 - - 13.25). My pad has both teams with same amount of rest and game is at Washington so give them a point. My spread is Cleveland -6.25 so -6. 5Dimes has it at Wizards -1. So I would take Cleveland at the spread or Cleveland at -103. I think Cleveland ML holds better value.

[bubblebuttluv]

Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats:

Miami Heat:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 105.25
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 103.25
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 101.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 36
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 7.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 87.25
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 93.25

Charlotte Bobcats:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 98
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 98
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 46
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 16.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 70.75
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 10.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 111.75

Heat may be tired from playing Thunder last night. Yeah, they play the Bobcats tonight, but I would just stay away from this game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks:


Detroit Pistons:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 90.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 86.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 97.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 48.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 16.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 66.15
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 85

Atlanta Hawks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 91
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 89.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 43.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 74.325
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 92.25

The Pistons win in 5 out of 9 categories (5 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4), so as of now Pistons should win straight up. Pistons number is 5.75 (90.75 – 85) and Hawks number is -1.25 (91 – 92.25). So my raw spread has Pistons favored by 7 (5.75 - - 1.25). for pad both teams have same rest and it is at Atlanta so let’s give the Hawks a point. Now my spread is Pistons -6. 5Dimes has it at Hawks -8. Are lines are way off with a 14 point difference, so I would take the Pistons at +8.

[bubblebuttluv]

Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies:

Philadelphia 76ers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 98.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 95
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 43.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 70.1
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 11.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101.75

Memphis Grizzlies:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 89.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 86.25
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 47.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 15
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 77.25
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 17
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 88.5

The 76ers win in in 4 out of 9 categories (or 4 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4). The 76ers number is -3.25 (98.5 – 101.75) and the Grizzlies number is 1 (89.5 – 88.5). For raw spread I have the Grizzlies favored by 4.25 (1 - - 3.25). For pad, Grizzlies have a little more rest and the game is at home so let’s give them 2 points. My spread is now Grizzlies -6.25. 5Dimes has it at Grizzlies -9 and Grizzlies ML is -485. Since ML doesn’t represent good value to me and our spreads are close, I would avoid this game for a better game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves:

Houston Rockets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 118.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 111.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 104.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 41.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 8
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 81.65
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98

Minnesota Timberwolves:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 93.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 103
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 94.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 47
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 74.725
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98

Houston wins in 5 out of 9 (5 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4). Since they tie in category 9 though, lets say Houston wins in 5 out of 8 or 5 out of 7, if you don’t count category 4. Houston’s number is 20.75 and Minnesota’s number is -4.25. So my raw spread Houston favored by 25 (20.75 - - 4.25). For my pad, Minnesota has 2 more days rest since Houston is playing back-to-back and since it is at Minnesota, let’s give them a total of 3 points. My spread has Houston favored by 22. 5Dimes has Minnesota at -5.5. There is a 27.5 point difference between our lines. Let’s not get into if a line sounds fishy though. We may be sacrificing a little value here, but with Houston blowing out a team on one of the highly touted “Christmas games” they may choose to lay off today. Either way I just feel more comfortable going with the Hawks game. The Houston Ml of +190 does hold some good value.

[bubblebuttluv]

Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs

Toronto Raptors:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 101.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 92.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (106)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 36
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 8.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 84.5
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 9
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 94

San Antonio Spurs:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 106.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 111.25
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 96.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (111)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 39.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 7
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 78.275
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14.25
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101


The Raptors win 3 out of 9 categories. Raptors number is 7.5 (101.5 – 94), and Spurs number is 5.75 (106.75 – 101). Raw spread has Raptors at 1.75. For pad, Raptor may have too much rest (last game was Friday) and it is at Spurs so let’s give Spurs 2 points for spread number of a spread of Spurs -0.25 so Spurs pk. 5Dimes has Spurs at -13, with a ML of -1400 (so no way on the ML). Raptors and the points is a good play, but I would not go the Raptors ML route.

[bubblebuttluv]

New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns

New York Knicks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 98.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 99
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 97.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (106)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 41
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 9.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 73.375
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 96.75

Phoenix Suns:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 98
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 99.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 97.25
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (99)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 36
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 75.9
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 10.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98.25

Knicks had hard game at Lakers yesterday, avoid this game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets

Los Angeles Lakers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 107.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 106.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 109.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (122)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 45
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 75.825
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 101.75

Denver Nuggets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 103.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 108.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 105
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only played once this season (103)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 51.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 12.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 69.325
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 103.75

Personally I am staying away from Lakers games until I see a few more games and see how Steve Nash meshes into the so-called latest NBA “superteam”.

[bubblebuttluv]

I will post the rest of my write-ups before 7:45. Like I was saying I have a weird feeling about the Houston game and would avoid it. I am also avoiding teams from the Christmas games. My play tonight is on the Detroit Piston. The safest play would be to take the Pistons at +8 for -110, the riskiest play (which still seems logical with my numbers) would be to take Pistons ML at +310. Probably the best play would be to take Pistons at +7.5 for -102. Me personally, I am taking 2 units on Detroit +7.5 and one unit on Detroit ML. But, for you guys, my ONE PICK OF THE DAY IS PISTONS +8.

[bubblebuttluv]

To clarify further, while Detroit +7.5 sounds good and Detroit ML sounds ok it is also risky. I picked Detroit +8 as my ONE PICK OF THE DAY, because if they don't cover that extra half point, I don't won't the people tailing me to lose money.

For me though, and I don't recommend you tail this, I am still putting one unit on Detroit ML and two units on Detroit +7.5.

[nocturnal012]

Keep up the good work

[bubblebuttluv]

Thx

[comppicks35]

AWESOME write-ups BBL!! Having done stuff like this before, I know it takes A LOT of time to do, almost becoming "a job" (LOL). Good luck on any of the plays you make from these.
Lines are really tight today and the O/Us may be the way to go today; will have to take a look at ORL with the hope they shoot lights out tonight (which is the only way they will win/cover), but as others have mentioned, the NO bigs can dominant the paint if ORL doesn't shoot 50%+ and 35-40%+ from 3s. The Bucks and Nuggets may be a worth a look as well. Just leans, nothing solid.

[Hench]

I took the Magic as well. Which seems to put me in the minority on this site.

[Told You So!]

interesting thanks for the informative writeup...

[suicidekings]

...

[bubblebuttluv]

Suicidekings, why post if you are just going to say "..."?

[bubblebuttluv]

Here are the rest of my writeups. The Warriors game that I just finished the write-up on held a little more value then the Pistons game, but I am happy with my one pick of the day being on the Pistons. As always my write-ups do not factor in roster changes, so check those out before you place any bets. I just feel the need to re-iterate this (though I won't mention it anymore), because while I think there are a lot of great people on here, I got the feeling one day some degenerate troll who lurks on this website just hating on people will say "your bet seemed like a lock, but you forgot to see that LeBron James broke his leg before the game, you fool."

Here are the rest of the write-ups as promised.

[bubblebuttluv]

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks:

Brooklyn Nets:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 86.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 92
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 87.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only have played once this season (88)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 38.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 68.15
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 94.25

Milwaukee Bucks:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 89.75
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 90.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 91.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: only have played once this season (97)
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 44.75
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 11.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 69.7
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 16.5
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 92.75


Nets had Christmas games yesterday. Avoid this game.

[bubblebuttluv]

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz:


Golden State Warriors:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 115
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 106.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 106
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 45.25
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14.25
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 85.325
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 111.25


Utah Jazz:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 90.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 100.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 90.5
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: have not played this season
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 42.5
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 14.5
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 77.475
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 15
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 98


Warriors win in 6 out of 9 categories (or 6 out of 8 if you don’t count category 4). Warriors number is 3.75, Jazz number is -7.5 (90.5 – 98). So my raw spread Warriors favored by 11.25 (3.75 - - 7.5). For pad Orlando has one more day of rest so let’s give them a point and it is at the jazz so let’s give them a point, so the pad is a wash at with Warriors favored by 11.25. 5Dimes has Jazz at -4.5, so Warriors plus points would be the way to go.

[bubblebuttluv]

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trailblazers:




Sacramento Kings:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 103.5
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 106.75
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 90.75
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: 103.5
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 40
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 10.75
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 77.7
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 13.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 102.25


Portland Trailblazers:
1.) Avg points last 4 games: 97
2.) Avg points last 4 home games: 97.5
3.) Avg points last 4 road games: 106
4.) Avg points last 2 meetings: 88
5.) Avg rebounds last 4 games: 43
6.) Avg offensive rebounds last 4 games: 13
7.) Free throw % last 4 games: 83.6
8.) Avg turnovers last 4 games: 14.75
9.) Avg points allowed last 4 games: 97.25


Kings number is 1.25 (103.5 – 102.25), and the Trailblazers number is -0.25 (97 – 97.25). SO my raw spread has the Kings favored by 1. For pad, they have the same amount of rest and game is at Portland, so let’s give Portland a point. Now game is a PK and 5Dimes has Portland at -7, so the play would be the Kings and the points.

[bubblebuttluv]

For Celtics vs Clippers, they both played last night so just avoid this game.

[alldaybaby]

Like your thread here as I always compare the teams in some way. That Detroit ML was gigantic and they had a 22 point comeback to get it into OT. Liked this play and the +8 was too hard for me to ignore

[Told You So!]

Holy cow this system is spot on today

[bubblebuttluv]

So ladies and gentlemen, I hope you rode with me on my one pick of the day, Pistons +8. I personally took them at +7.5 and at the ML. Even though the Hawks won by 7, so it was a close bet, and they apparently blew a huge lead, numbers generally don't lie. My personal spreads aren't always spot on, but apparently almost all the write-ups hit today (though I won't take credit for the other write-ups since I only recommend one of my write-ups a day). Winning the spread bet by 0.5 to 1 points, is called being sharp as a penetrating blade in my book, bruh. Let's keep cashing this shit! I'm 5 for 5 and if you've been tailing me, so are you! Congrats, let's get it again tomorrow!

[Told You So!]

Nice job keep it up!

[juice050]

cant front bubble butt your shit is on point.. never really seen this style of analyzing before hope you be that successful capper you want to be homie. i actually was already on the bucks with or with out d williams, however i did take your warriors play. thanks

[bubblebuttluv]

Thx all!

[mets710]

Another follow, another winner on your pick of the night. Keep that shit up and keep gettin' money bubblebutt!!!!!

[bubblebuttluv]

Yeah, let's all keep cashing!