Suspect Line Tonight NBA

innovation · 12-18-12, 03:48 PM

adding
Jazz ML +180 SLOAN vs D WILL the sellout. Some feelings never die.

Final card

Jazz +180
Pacers +120
Hornets +7.5
BOL

KuLaPhU · 12-18-12, 03:52 PM

are you serious about the hornets? oracle arena will be loud and excited for this warrior team homie.. warriors will kill hornets tonight!

KuLaPhU · 12-18-12, 03:55 PM

I can see a blowout game...

tatddy · 12-18-12, 03:56 PM

Never good to back a team after a long, arduous road trip. Hornets or no play.

biggedge · 12-18-12, 03:57 PM

Warriors are for real this year. Much improved on D, and David Lee has been playing like Wilt lately.

innovation · 12-18-12, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by KuLaPhU

are you serious about the hornets? oracle arena will be loud and excited for this warrior team homie.. warriors will kill hornets tonight!

Yes I am
On paper I have Warriors between a -12 to -14.5 home Favorite.

How many times does Apple sell thier products at half price? They don't because the demand is always there.

The books don't need to discount the Warriors to entice action.....but if they want to clean house late night and kill all the parlays looming....well thats another story.

Eagles27 · 12-18-12, 04:05 PM

You know, Hornets burned me on Sunday, so I can very well see a game where GS comes out gunning (up by double digits at the half), then 4th quarter back door cover by the hornets. I still like GS though at -7, they have some serious fire power on offense and can easily run the Hornets out of the building. Either way, probably gonna stay away from this one as I see better games on today card, but best of luck, that is a gutsy move fore sure!

KuLaPhU · 12-18-12, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by tatddy

Never good to back a team after a long, arduous road trip. Hornets or no play.

Why is that?

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 04:19 PM

7.5 is about right here, nothing suspect IMHO

sando · 12-18-12, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by innovation

Yes I am
On paper I have Warriors between a -12 to -14.5 home Favorite.

How many times does Apple sell thier products at half price? They don't because the demand is always there.

The books don't need to discount the Warriors to entice action.....but if they want to clean house late night and kill all the parlays looming....well thats another story.

I think your model is broken mate. There are no circumstances where this line would be over double digits. -14.5? That's like the Heat at home to the Wizzards.

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 04:34 PM

5-8 is fine, obv not 14 wtf

innovation · 12-18-12, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by sando

I think your model is broken mate. There are no circumstances where this line would be over double digits. -14.5? That's like the Heat at home to the Wizzards.

Thats debatable.

The Last 10 games
Warriors are 8-2 and Rank #3 in power rankings
Heat are 7-3 and rank #13
Lakers are #19

Again last 10 games
Washington 3-7 ranked #21
Hornets 1-9 ranked #29
Bobcats 0-10 ranked 30th

I dont think that its that hard to concieve what I am implying. You can take issue with how I make my lines but the point is the Warriors are on SALE tonight.

I dont change how I make my lines all year and for the most part they fall within a narrow window of what Vegas puts out. Its only when a popular team goes on sale and my model shows a severe difference in value that I take notice.

lunchbawks · 12-18-12, 05:12 PM

fukkin hammer it

SlickRick1382 · 12-18-12, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by sando

I think your model is broken mate. There are no circumstances where this line would be over double digits. -14.5? That's like the Heat at home to the Wizzards.

I was just about to post this.

Only time you see lines above 10 are when the Heat, Knicks, Spurs or someone of that caliber are playing.

There is no way the Warriors would ever be a 12 to 14' point favorite to ANYONE ....

Line is right around where it should be. Above the the most common result in the NBA at a -7.

Line could be at most -8' to 9 but nothing more than that. You do realize that the Warriors have never been more than a -5' favorite other than to Orlando once.

Only thing that worries me is that they were a -4' point favorite to Washington on the road fresh off a B2B (they didn't cover) so line should be slightly higher at homing off a 2 day rest.

pattymayo · 12-18-12, 05:19 PM

Bad spot for the Warriors

I'm with you, hornets +7.5 is a steal

Actually down to +7 at some shops and I'm sure at least 60% are on warriors

GoBlue77 · 12-18-12, 05:24 PM

You guys and your "models" crack me up

innovation · 12-18-12, 05:32 PM

I give each team a value and its worked very well for me. I had Houston ML last night Knicks ML against miami and so on. You can all take issue with what I suggest and perhaps I should have said potentially could win by -14 points.

Here are the rest of the VALUES for every game tonight. This really out to get some of you to pop off.

I am strictly comparing my perceived value and what Vegas is selling the public.

Hawks -11
Cleveland -1.5
Brooklyn -4.5
Miami -7.5
Chicago -4.5
Pacers -0.5
Dallas -4.5
Denver -1.5
Warriors -14.5
Lakers -11.5

my model doesn't account for b2b and how much to adjust. It more or less a way for me to get a feel for which teams Vegas is penalizing or underselling.

SlickRick1382 · 12-18-12, 06:36 PM

1. You're model is way off.

2. If you perceive the line for GSW to be -14.5 then how do you not take the GSW -7' since you're getting so much value between your perceived value and the readily available lines? That makes no sense.

Vegas can shade the line a point or so to entice action or based on public perception but to say that the line should be 7 full points higher is absolutely ridiculous and means your model is broken.

Hypothetically, if the line was GSW -11 and your model had it at -14' would you still take the Hornets? If so please explain how you can go the other way against you own model.

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

1. You're model is way off.

2. If you perceive the line for GSW to be -14.5 then how do you not take the GSW -7' since you're getting so much value between your perceived value and the readily available lines? That makes no sense.

Vegas can shade the line a point or so to entice action or based on public perception but to say that the line should be 7 full points higher is absolutely ridiculous and means your model is broken.

Hypothetically, if the line was GSW -11 and your model had it at -14' would you still take the Hornets? If so please explain how you can go the other way against you own model.

Good point but i dont think he's capable to comprehend it

innovation · 12-18-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by leetreaper

Good point but i dont think he's capable to comprehend it

It's comical when a Jets fan wants to try and bring everyone down to there level of misery. Your Jets team was a -7 favorite on my model last night but since Vegas had them open as a underdog in a must win game and knowing the garbage team they really are I faded them along with Knicks last night.

So point blank I am not saying vegas should have my line but what I am saying is how I make my line stays constant. This gives me my base so that I don't get influence by vegas and how they want me to react to there line.

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 09:50 PM

Im a Jets fan before Mark Sanchez era, so what are u saying? I f hate this team now, even fireman ED quit, does having a Jets avatar make u feel better than me?

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by innovation

It's comical when a Jets fan wants to try and bring everyone down to there level of misery. Your Jets team was a -7 favorite on my model last night but since Vegas had them open as a underdog in a must win game and knowing the garbage team they really are I faded them along with Knicks last night.

So point blank I am not saying vegas should have my line but what I am saying is how I make my line stays constant. This gives me my base so that I don't get influence by vegas and how they want me to react to there line.

How do u get 14.5 number, walk me though it real quick, no need to explain ur "model" fully...

innovation · 12-18-12, 10:01 PM

Look for obvious reasons vegas and mine shouldn't be the same. I don't have the knowledge, time, resources they do.

Most people get stuck on my -14.5 line and I get why you have issue with that. Vegas hardly ever sets lines that high. It did open at -9 however. My point is there is no reason to have a warriors sale tonight.

the warriors recently are trending with a 108 power ranking and hornets are a putrid 88.1

and you want me tell you how they could possibly beat them by -14?

Sambooka · 12-18-12, 10:06 PM

i feel very strongly that the Warriors cover the -4 by halftime

Warriors 1st Half for me

ThaTopMoron · 12-18-12, 10:07 PM

i have Teasers riding on GSW -1 and -1.5

they better penetrating show up tonight

i need to win money when there is no football to bet on, instead of losing it like usual!!!

i'm following Giant and putting a play on the under as well for this game

leetreaper · 12-18-12, 10:14 PM

14 is too much but whats wrong with 7.5 line?

MrXYZ · 12-18-12, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

1. You're model is way off.

2. If you perceive the line for GSW to be -14.5 then how do you not take the GSW -7' since you're getting so much value between your perceived value and the readily available lines? That makes no sense.

Vegas can shade the line a point or so to entice action or based on public perception but to say that the line should be 7 full points higher is absolutely ridiculous and means your model is broken.

Hypothetically, if the line was GSW -11 and your model had it at -14' would you still take the Hornets? If so please explain how you can go the other way against you own model.

Exactly.

If your model has GSW -14.5 the obvious thing to do is to take them at -7, if that's what the books are offering. That's the whole point of capping games.

Sambooka · 12-18-12, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Exactly.
If your model has GSW -14.5 the obvious thing to do is to take them at -7, if that's what the books are offering. That's the whole point of capping games.

Hangoverblack · 12-19-12, 01:05 AM

Bump.

Someone else saw the free money. Nice thread.
The answer isn't always in the lines, but it is way more than 57% of the time.
Quit capping teams, and follow the money.
Money is the ultimate truth, and prognosticator.

bash away...

Ticket #: 25794187
Dec 18 11:52 PM
STRAIGHT BET
[2517] 2H NO HORNETS +1½-110

3390 / 3081

3081
WIN
WIN
12/18/2012 11:49 PM

leetreaper · 12-19-12, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

Bump.

Someone else saw the free money. Nice thread.
The answer isn't always in the lines, but it is way more than 57% of the time.
Quit capping teams, and follow the money.
Money is the ultimate truth, and prognosticator.

bash away...

Ticket #: 25794187
Dec 18 11:52 PM
STRAIGHT BET
[2517] 2H NO HORNETS +1½-110

3390 / 3081

3081
WIN
WIN
12/18/2012 11:49 PM

How is this a non-existent irrelevant bet have anything to do with this the system OP was talking about?

MakinItHappen · 12-19-12, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by Hangoverblack

Bump.

Someone else saw the free money. Nice thread.
The answer isn't always in the lines, but it is way more than 57% of the time.
Quit capping teams, and follow the money.
Money is the ultimate truth, and prognosticator.

bash away...

Ticket #: 25794187
Dec 18 11:52 PM
STRAIGHT BET
[2517] 2H NO HORNETS +1½-110

3390 / 3081

3081
WIN
WIN
12/18/2012 11:49 PM

So basically be a follower? No thanks. The common person that bets can be stupid, the most money doesn't always constitute it being the smart money.