Been trying to find my way to beating the NBA. Props were my best niche, but the books have taken away my beloved three point props after we bum rushed them to start the season. Tried the 2nd half possessions formula that works much better in college hoops, but it has failed again this season in the NBA. Learned my lesson with that now. Very hard to see how games in the NBA finish vs. college where pace/fouling is easier to follow IMO. So I look to the best part of the game perhaps in the NBA ... the 1st half - the appetizer to the shitty finish of a lot of these games - where desire & effort should be at its peak. Have been playing some of these without posting this season and now going to keep a record here. Not claiming to know shit from shit, but I'm a stat cruncher so I am looking at possessions and points per possessions offensively & defensively mainly here. Also factoring in injuries and trends, etc. Gonna go with a two game limit per night to keep from getting my ass handed to me when this doesn't work out. Tail. Fade. Full-on Childhood Freakout. Do what's natural. 1st halves only in this thread for me. Going to throw a lot of stats out there for you to chew on and give you my ultimate selection. Will try to explain if you have any questions and we'll see if these work out or suck balls.
12.10.12
Charlotte-Golden State Over 102 [-110]
Two of the top five possessions per game teams in the Association. Both average around 98 possessions per game. In the NBA, possessions are slightly more front heavy in the 1st half vs. college where they are back heavy due to fouling in the 2nd half. With that being said, the stats indicate our first half possessions should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 100, perhaps a shade higher. Both teams give up slightly more than one point per possessions with Charlotte @ 1.049 & G-State @ 1.009. Offensively, the Bobcats average slightly less than a point per possessions @ 0.977 & the Warriors a shade more @ 1.015.
The Warriors have hit the 50 pt mark or better in three of their last five in the 1st half. For the Bobcats, there was a ridiculous lack of defense against San Antonio last time out - yet the 1st half finished @ 103 because they scored just 44 pts. The trend for Charlotte in their last five has been giving up big points early. Opponents have scored 59, 58, 51, 51 & 54 in that stretch in 1st halves. The outlook here shows Charlotte playing poorly defensively in the 1st half, so G-State likely exceeds their 1st half average with most Charlotte opponents netting anywhere from 5-9 more pts per 1st half than their average. Expecting the Warriors could hit anywhere from 53-57 making it necessary that Charlotte likely only hit near their 47-48 pt 1st half average to send this over. Seven straight 1st halves @ home for Charlotte have beaten this number.
12.10.12
Charlotte-Golden State Over 102 [-110]
Two of the top five possessions per game teams in the Association. Both average around 98 possessions per game. In the NBA, possessions are slightly more front heavy in the 1st half vs. college where they are back heavy due to fouling in the 2nd half. With that being said, the stats indicate our first half possessions should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 100, perhaps a shade higher. Both teams give up slightly more than one point per possessions with Charlotte @ 1.049 & G-State @ 1.009. Offensively, the Bobcats average slightly less than a point per possessions @ 0.977 & the Warriors a shade more @ 1.015.
The Warriors have hit the 50 pt mark or better in three of their last five in the 1st half. For the Bobcats, there was a ridiculous lack of defense against San Antonio last time out - yet the 1st half finished @ 103 because they scored just 44 pts. The trend for Charlotte in their last five has been giving up big points early. Opponents have scored 59, 58, 51, 51 & 54 in that stretch in 1st halves. The outlook here shows Charlotte playing poorly defensively in the 1st half, so G-State likely exceeds their 1st half average with most Charlotte opponents netting anywhere from 5-9 more pts per 1st half than their average. Expecting the Warriors could hit anywhere from 53-57 making it necessary that Charlotte likely only hit near their 47-48 pt 1st half average to send this over. Seven straight 1st halves @ home for Charlotte have beaten this number.
wtf
