NBA Math

[clamchowder89]

apk..do you have the math calculation for NCAA football and NFL also?

If there is a no play for the spread, do you still play the ML?

[mundane]

well i made a worksheet for this... (juzz bcoz im bored) lol.

i track my win, loss, % and +- units on a spreadsheet so i figured why not add one more worksheet on it for this so called (70%) "system".

im still not sure how the filters work. i did an inquiry on the thread though. so hopefully ill get some answers to them.

here's how it looks like...



if i dont get lazy, i just might continue on with this.
ill post the numbers whenever i can. this shld be fun... or not!

[EBDOG]

do both teams starters have to be playing or just the team you pick...cause wouldnt arenas be considered a starter?

[apk2k6]

I don't play the ML. -2 will not be a play because the number is 11.7 before the spread. If the spread is -2, it will be under 10 @ 9.7

Tread lightly because the Warriors just picked up a new player, I don't know how that factors in.

Edit: And the filters only apply to the team that you pick.

[MexicanStallion]

I don't play the ML. -2 will not be a play because the number is 11.7 before the spread. If the spread is -2, it will be under 10 @ 9.7

Tread lightly because the Warriors just picked up a new player, I don't know how that factors in.

Edit: And the filters only apply to the team that you pick.

How would injuries be figured? Suppose the Spurs were all healthy and Manu was still out for another month, would they be tossed out since he is a starter and would not be in there? Or would it go with starters for like the last week or so?

[JGILL50]

i would think since they got their entire current record without him it would be fine.

[apk2k6]

i would think since they got their entire current record without him it would be fine.

That's how I'd play it as well. Keep in mind that a filter is supposed to be the 20 game mark, we're not there yet.

[tacomax]

APK, looking at this system it looks good. Any way to get that java program up for the non math people?

I've got a winning system that you might be interested in. PM me for details.

[zackattack]

That's how I'd play it as well. Keep in mind that a filter is supposed to be the 20 game mark, we're not there yet.

just curious, will this work in college basketball or other sports too?
and warriors would still be a play because you said to round off so rounding of 11.7 is 12 minus the spread of 2 is 10

[apk2k6]

It said to round to the nearest tenth when dividing by 20. You don't round after that, and certainly not to the nearest whole number.

-2 isn't a play, but I got it at +1 last night when the line opened at The Greek. Maybe you can buy a half point, or try to play it at -2.

[durito]

or you could buy 15pts, then every game would qualify

[apk2k6]

or you could buy 15pts, then every game would qualify

exactly

[MoneySportsGuy]

durito,

your pretty funny

[apk2k6]

edit: internet is being stupid, double post.

[MoneySportsGuy]

this math is interesting. so apk what looks good for tonight as a play, GSW at -2?

[apk2k6]

Well according to the rules, nothing greater than -1.5, I happened to grab them at +1 last night but I don't like buying points, especially to move from -2 to -1.5

I'm not sure if I'm going to count this towards the system or not, I'm going to ask someone else right now.

[MoneySportsGuy]

yeah I am staying away from that game.

I like NJ tonight to cover

[apk2k6]

GSW is not a play for the system tonight, line moved too much.

[MoneySportsGuy]

thats cool well goodluck anyways

[zackattack]

GSW is not a play for the system tonight, line moved too much.

i love all these systems that claim to hit 70%
golden state got killed
the phoenix line fell to 9.5 which made them a play and there getting killed right now.........great job

[apk2k6]

i love all these systems that claim to hit 70%
golden state got killed
the phoenix line fell to 9.5 which made them a play and there getting killed right now.........great job

I don't know if you can't read, but this system isn't even supposed to start until 20 games in, that way the win % aren't so skewed. I'm taking a risk by playing early. By the way, Shaq isn't playing in this game. There were no plays tonight, like I said earlier.

I'm not trying to tout this system or say it's the best, I'm just passing on what I've read and now I'm trying it out.

[mundane]

hey apk, hit us up with this one when it's 20 games in on the season. create a thread, and we'll see what happens.

[MexicanStallion]

Well around the 20 game marks in the season. Is it time to test out the formula and see how it goes?

[isiah121]

Interesting. Thanks for the system.

[nzwarrior]

So did i calculate it right that ORL -4.5 is a huge play tonight? Both teams are 20 games into the season and your system gave me 20 for orlando?

[turboj]

hey, do you have an analysis on tor. vs. cle? thanks

[mundane]

yeah.. where's the dude who made this? cmon mann! dont hold back now. i wanna see if this system works! people demand a winning system, if this is the mother of all so called winning system then by all means, show us how it's done. lead us to the promised land!

[RogueJuror]

I think you can figure out how is done from the first post, that ought to be enough.

[mundane]

yeah.. but im too lazy. i want somebody else doing it for me and be posting the plays and the no plays on a daily basis!

i actually made a worksheet but it needs a little tweaking on the 'rounding off' part. i guess ill have to work back on it.

[Iwinyourmoney]

APK, I downloaded the java file. So it has everything built in with all the rounding and stuff right?

[mundane]

check out the excel worksheet i made for this 'system'..

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/125187-nba-math-excel-sheet-beta.html

[SportsLockPicks]

keep it up mundane...i like where you're head's at...

[SportsLockPicks]

I don't know if this has been posted here or not, but I'm sharing an NBA Math system that I found. Apparently it produces around 100 plays in an NBA season, and has been hitting 70% pretty consistently. It doesn't start until 20 games have been played into the season, but it's 4-1 so far before the 20 game mark and there's another play tonight.


And here is the formula types exactly as it was given to me:

Example : Clev vs denver
Cle winning % is .600 and Denver is .057

Subtract the difference

Clev 600 - Den 057 = 543

Give 1 point for every 20% points Therefore 543/20 = 27, round to the nearest tenth

Home team is given 3 points, away team you subtract 3 points.

Subtract or add the difference
Clev is 27 and they are away, thus 27- 3 = 24

Then subtract or add point spread for the final number value

The spread for the game is Cle -9.5 points, thus 24 - 9.5 = 14.5

The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY. In this example, Clev is the PLAY.

If the spread is 10 or greater , do not play. If the number is less than or equal to -1, then you play the other team ATS.

FILTERS:

- Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games)
- Dont play of one or more starters are out. Allow one week for return starters
- Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break

does the higher the # you get on a "Play" over 10 or under -1 signify stronger plays?

[xerac]

pretty intresting system following this still cant understand how it picked so many winners with this simple maths formula

[thadchr]

Like everyone else, I'm interested but a tad bit lazy...

If anyone keeps track of or actually plays this system, please post results.