Backing a team when their star is out

[hawley]

Must be one of the most profitable angles in the NBA.

For the first game only I swear this cashes 90% of the time.

Anyone got any numbers to support it?

[therealdealau]

I swear it must too, I was on Atlanta earlier this season when there was no Josh Smith and they beat OKC.

[PickyBob]

Must be one of the most profitable angles in the NBA.

For the first game only I swear this cashes 90% of the time.

Anyone got any numbers to support it?

Bill Simmons calls this the Ewing Theory

[hawley]

Bill Simmons calls this the Ewing Theory

Yup Simmons talks about it all the time.

Obviously the Spurs last week did it.

Heat did it without Wade and Lebron against the Hawks last season.

I remember OKC going into Boston without Durant and winning SU last season or the season before.

[hawley]

Cavs against Philly this season when Irving was out.

[sando]

Bench warmers and fringe guys suddenly getting un-expected minutes, so they hustle their arse's off during the game for a chance at more minutes in the future, where as the other team upon finding out the news that... (insert superstar here) isn't playing probably have a subtle let down in intensity, most likely without even being aware that it's happening?

[hawley]

Bench warmers and fringe guys suddenly getting un-expected minutes, so they hustle their arse's off during the game for a chance at more minutes in the future, where as the other team upon finding out the news that... (insert superstar here) isn't playing probably have a subtle let down in intensity, most likely without even being aware that it's happening?

Combination of team playing harder to cover the missing star, let down spot for the opposition and an over inflated spread could explain it.

It also seems the team not only covers the line it moves but also the original line.

[thetrinity]

always liked this angle in the REGULAR SEASON

[pazim]

Bettingwizard used to do this last season. He also said that home teams have higher winning percentage under this situation.