new auto play discuss?

[Tommy Karate]

nice backdoor

[Tommy Karate]

.....................

[jessetk313]

Cash it baby!! Good work!

[bigjah15]

Clippers +2.5 2 units

[BostonBrowns]

2 units? I thought it was 1 unit since they are the away team.

[pip2]

Clippers +2.5 $110 to win $100, Caesars

[bigjah15]

Shit wasn't paying attention . Locked it in already of we'll let's drink to that

[bigjah15]

Winner winner


Ytd 3-1 +2.9 units

[pip2]

Winner winner


Ytd 3-1 +2.9 units

Thanks bigjah...

[bigjah15]

No problem pip, just another day another dollar

[NBA Maniac]

This should be 4-0 lol

[flipside2469]

Utah Monday.

[bigjah15]

Yes it should be maniac but it is what it is.

[bigjah15]

Utah Monday.

No flip because they are on a more then 2 game losing streak

[bigjah15]

Orlando play on monday

[easyliving]

this looks solid will start tailing

[bigjah15]

this looks solid will start tailing

👍👍👍

[Tommy Karate]

so you're doing 2u per play now? you should...these plays are solid.

[bigjah15]

yeah tommy i am undecided, gonna look into past years more and see what i can do.

[bigjah15]

2011 year

away 13-8 62%
home 16-11 60%

2010 year

away 12-12-1 50%
home 19-8 70%

2009 year

away 9-14 39%
home 18-12 60%

[pip2]

I'm not a math expert but I am coming up with a total tally of 74 - 41, or around a 64% win rate taking the last 4 years together. That's a lot better than I have been doing with my blindfold-throw-the-dart method...

[bigjah15]

I'm not a math expert but I am coming up with a total tally of 74 - 21, or around a 64% win rate taking the last 4 years together. That's a lot better than I have been doing with my blindfold-throw-the-dart method...

[italianbandit]

I don't have NBA databases, or I would do it for you, but you might want to also look at 1st half records as well. Good luck.

[Mako-SBR]

2011 year

away 13-8 62%
home 16-11 60%

2010 year

away 12-12-1 50%
home 19-8 70%

2009 year

away 9-14 39%
home 18-12 60%

So these numbers, combined with other historical numbers in the thread, show that the away games in this system are actually a bit underwater at roughly 42-43 for the past four full years worth of seasons.

Yeah, I think we're going to need to adjust the tail to home only, away games are just for the action junkies.

I thought initially as you did bigjah, with maybe going 1 unit for away games, 2 units for home games, but it's just not there. Home has a distinct advantage, going roughly 76-43 (66.6%) over that same 4 year span (some of the numbers between posters aren't matching exactly, apologize for any inaccuracies).

And that's why the historic database for 20 years worth of games only shows a 53.5% win rate...because it's factoring in all those poor away game results. I bet if we filtered it for just home games we'd still be above 60% for that entire time span, which is amazing when you really think about it.

Home only for me from this point forward, and 3-4 units (at least) when it happens.

And another thanks from a lurker for you providing the research for us bigjah, makes life so much easier just checking the thread each day.

[bigjah15]

home

ATS: 268-209-9 (0.74, 56.2%)

away

211-201-11 (0.47, 51.2%)

[Mako-SBR]

home

ATS: 268-209-9 (0.74, 56.2%)

away

211-201-11 (0.47, 51.2%)

Very nice, good data bigjah.

Away games are done for me, they haven't covered w/vig the past 4 years, nor the past 10+. Waste of time. Home games only from this point forward and I'd suggest everyone else do the same.

[flipside2469]

Oops. I'll shut up now.

No flip because they are on a more then 2 game losing streak

[calebepley93]

Very nice, good data bigjah.

Away games are done for me, they haven't covered w/vig the past 4 years, nor the past 10+. Waste of time. Home games only from this point forward and I'd suggest everyone else do the same.

wow, good work. I already placed my bet for Orlando tonight but I'm jumping on the home teams only bandwagon after. Lets get it

[bigjah15]

Orlando +2.5 1 unit

[snark]

Even though I've been playing this system for 3 years, if those figures are for 10 years (268-209 at home), and are correct, that is a net + 38 units for 10 years. Or + 3.8 units/year. Or + .6 unit/month for the season. Better known as quite a risk for very little gain. Not sure that it's worth the effort, unless you're betting a nickel > a game.

[bigjah15]

Even though I've been playing this system for 3 years, if those figures are for 10 years (268-209 at home), and are correct, that is a net + 38 units for 10 years. Or + 3.8 units/year. Or + .6 unit/month for the season. Better known as quite a risk for very little gain. Not sure that it's worth the effort, unless you're betting a nickel > a game.

But it's guaranteed profit

I do this as a hobby, if this was my main source of income it would be a little different . I got 200$ units. I don't sweat it. Just trying to contribute something and have other people make money off this auto play I found.

So crack open a beer and let's win some money tonight 👍👍

[bigjah15]

I also bet lthe games / sports.

I am working on an auto play for college basketball

[Tommy Karate]

Even though I've been playing this system for 3 years, if those figures are for 10 years (268-209 at home), and are correct, that is a net + 38 units for 10 years. Or + 3.8 units/year. Or + .6 unit/month for the season. Better known as quite a risk for very little gain. Not sure that it's worth the effort, unless you're betting a nickel > a game.

thats why this shouldnt be a "1 unit" play.

hit it for 5-10u if you believe in it. im doing 2u and might do 3-4 when the home team is a play.

people on these forums are so concerned with win %'s....weight your plays properly, and you have a good chance at making some real money.

[Mako-SBR]

Even though I've been playing this system for 3 years, if those figures are for 10 years (268-209 at home), and are correct, that is a net + 38 units for 10 years. Or + 3.8 units/year. Or + .6 unit/month for the season. Better known as quite a risk for very little gain. Not sure that it's worth the effort, unless you're betting a nickel > a game.

Looking forward to the next home play already, was tough to stay away from Orlando tonight.

But for those of us looking purely for the highest return on investment in our sports gambling, the ability to look at the past, understand what the numbers mean, and then stay disciplined from that point forward after absorbing the knowledge that's been gained is the only play.

BOL for anyone with Orlando tonight however, definitely pulling for you.

I am working on an auto play for college basketball

Excellent, keep up the great work man, you have our thanks.

[bigjah15]

Can't win em all boys

3-2 +1.8 unita