Leans for Wednesday 11/19/08

nick2060 · 11-19-08, 02:40 AM

diggin your first two picks, good work

I.R.B · 11-19-08, 03:46 AM

Cleveland 3rd qt ..

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 10:08 AM

I feel asleep last night wondering this question....Can somebody on the board convince me that I should not take Philadelphia today playing in Minnesota and giving away only 3 points. They are 11-2 ats in the last 13 games in Minnesota, and this is an out of conference game which anyone who knows my style knows that I love out of conference plays.

Elton Brand is a good matchup for Al Jefferson, and Iguodala can't be guarded by anyone on the floor. Minnesota played three straight on the road, then came home to play one, and then went back on the road to play another one, and now they are playing another one back at home this evening in what amounts to a 5 game road trip with this being their first game home, and 3rd game in 5 days. The line has already crept up to 3.5. I see no reason as to why I shouldn't take this game and make money off of it. CK Mafia, somebody, anybody convince me why I should not take Philadelphia tonight.

BrandonLaz · 11-19-08, 10:16 AM

I am going Philadelphia tonight a lot of people as far as I can tell like Minnesota in this game, and I just think the 76ers run away with this one after halftime. I also like your first 2 picks I am staying away from Cleveland though I think Detroit has that one.

dm8582 · 11-19-08, 10:42 AM

ck...what do you think about the over 189.5 on thunder clippers game..i think with the uptempo pace of the game and both teams playing little defense it should be high scoring

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 11:20 AM

dm8582,

The problem that I have with that over is that the Thunder can't be relied upon to cover their end of the deal. Moreover than that, these two teams are two of the bottom 3 in the league in scoring. The Thunder score only 87.3 at home, and the Clippers score only 83.5 away. That is a grand total of 170.8, well under the posted total line of 189.5. The Clippers just chuck up shots with no regard to orderly play and the Thunder just don't have many consistent scoring options.

One game that I am watching for sure is the San Antonio/Denver matchup. San Antonio has no business getting points at home. I know that Denver has been playing great as of late, but they have NEVER been favored on the road in San Antonio as far back as my search engine could go. The linemaker has obviously made an adjustment to parker and Ginobili's injuries for the Spurs. And with 86% of the public on the Nuggets, this play is shaping up into one that is getting more and more hard to ignore. I actually like the Spurs brand of "grind it out" play as of late. They have been winning ugly. And you can say what you want to say, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. The Spurs have been catching points in their last 4 games prior to tonight's game, and they have covered in 3 of them, and only lost ats by 1.5 points to Milwaukee on the road. After Utah blows out Milwaukee at home tonight, they may even be favored in San Antonio too. I think the Spurs keep the game close and have a chance to pick up the win late with a couple of free throws. Popovich has always been a better coach than Karl with the proof being in the rings. San Antonio is short handed to say the least, but the defense has gone nowhere. Denver has only won in San Antonio 5 times since 2001 (WOW!) and yet they are favored in this matchup.

maddogmadden86 · 11-19-08, 11:24 AM

<LI class=morecool>Bucks are 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Bucks are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah

maddogmadden86 · 11-19-08, 11:28 AM

<LI class=morehot>Raptors are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. <LI class=morehot>Raptors are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 11:35 AM

Okay folks, I am laying off of the Cleveland 1st half wager and leaving that game alone altogether, as it will spread my usual daily amount of money around a bit too much for my liking. I am fine with the lines of my games and here's what I am taking today:

Utah-10
New Orleans-13.5
Ball State-6.5 (College football, I bought a hook off to get off the key number)

maddogmadden86 · 11-19-08, 11:38 AM

Kings are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans
<LI class=more>Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. <LI class=more>Favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetingsngs are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in New Orleans

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 11:42 AM

I just couldn't pull the trigger against my favorite team (Pistons) when it got down to it. Just like i did against the Lakers, prior to the game, I will take them for each and every quarter moneyline tomorrow, the 1st half moneyline and the moneyline for the game as well as the points when they play the Celtics in Beantown in the grudge match. The Celtics have been winning at home, but not impressively. It's time for them to drop one at the house. Besides, no team avenges embarrassing losses like the Detroit Pistons. And the Celtics beat them 98-80 earlier this year in Motown before the team had a chance to jell with Iverson. Coach Curry has not forgotten that, you can be sure.

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 11:50 AM

Oh yeah, I was asked to put together a parlay today via email by a CK Mafia member, so here goes:

Utah-10
Philadephia-3.5
San Antonio -105 moneyline
New Orleans-13.5

Another viable option would be to tease (4 point) these teams if one doesn't feel comfortable with the normal lines

Then it would look something like this

Utah-6
Philadelphia+.5
San Antonio +5
New Orleans-9.5

cnleaf · 11-19-08, 11:57 AM

I dont feel much confident in PHI. I saw last time they played with ORL. PHI is a good fastbreak team. If they dont get chance in fastbreak, their offense sux.
BTW thanx for the call CK, MIL did the late game cover against DEN. Tonite I am definitly on UTA.
Lets go UTA.

dm8582 · 11-19-08, 11:57 AM

thanks ck..any thoughts on bulls blazer?

i like the line on the bulls again at 7.5 and once again they seem like a good cover tonight playing a blazer team who we see can get run on...

IrwinFletcher · 11-19-08, 12:35 PM

Mornin'... Not sure about that SA play as 3 of their last 4 wins were against cupcake teams. I think Billups has found his rhythm with this team in Denver and they're gaining confidence as a whole and on the defensive end especially. What IS guaranteed is that SA will, as usual, be methodical with the ball, work the clock like they have nowhere to be and play stellar defense. Oh yeah, they still have the best 2 in the game (as much as it pains me to say it) Timmy.. They know how to stop the ball, press the perimeter and limit easy interior buckets.

Pop is one of the best game planning coaches in the game and you know he'll be conducting a slooooooowww tempo for his depleted roster.

While the number 180 seems a bit low.. The Spurs games haven't gone over 180 once since Parker's been absent. In fact, the only game they've even made it over 170 was in SAC..

Thoughts?

htfdc102 · 11-19-08, 12:41 PM

San Antonio opened as 1 1/2 point dogs and are now -1 favs.

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 12:47 PM

dm8582

Portand is used to the pacific time zone, and Chicago is not. Chicago had the tougher opponent last night in the Lakers. So they had a little further of a flight to get to Oregon than the Blazers as the Blazers were in Oakland last night. With this being the 1st home game for the Blazers after a very long road trip, they have a maze of issues to deal with when they got home early this morning that have been left unattended while on the road. The Bulls have no such worries, as they are on a rodeo tour throughout the west. Jet lag hasn't settled in yet for the Bulls but it will by Friday when they face the Warriors.

I want to shed light on the Blazers moneyline for this game. The moneyline should be -360 to -370/+280 for a 7.5 point spread, yet the moneyline is only 300/+250. In other words, this is a "soft" 7.5. When I see things like that i go with the moneyline the other way if it is a game that I am interested in wagering on.

My suggestion to you is to shorten the amount of your bet, and play the Bulls moneyline. A small wager of $200.00 will bring you back a cool $500.00 Portland is more tired than the Bulls are and have many more real life hassels to deal with before gametime than the Bulls do. Wives and girlfriends like to start arguments after a man has been on the road a long time, only to get attention and the late night lovin' that usually follows. Bulls moneyline for you, forget about the points.

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 12:52 PM

IrwinFletcher,

San Antonio should have never been an underdog in the first place. And now with the reverse movement,they look even more to b the play. The public was all over Denver when they were favored and then they became an underdog in spite of those wagers. The books scooped up a lot of early Denver money already. Remember this and it will become clear to you; The game that we play is with the numbers and books. The game that the teams play is on the hardwood.

IrwinFletcher · 11-19-08, 01:07 PM

I haven't checked the numbers yet as far as line movement goes.. Usually wait until a bit closer to game time but I'm with you on SA being an early dog then moving to the favorite at home. I was just pointing out the situation in my previous post... and am certainly clear on the game we play brotha...

Moreover, I was really looking for your insight into the under play as I think that is the better situation to play..

Cheers!

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 01:57 PM

Okay, IrwinFletcher

The under has hit at an astounding 8 out of the last 10 games between these two teams in San Antonio, with average over/under lines of 194.5, and actual scores averaging 185. The Spus are on an under streak of 8 out of their last 9 games overall, giving up an average of 79.5. Denver has gone under 4 out of their last 6 games giving up an average of 92.5. The total of defensive numbers during these streaks amounts to 172, so obviously without looking up the streak numbers, Denver is taking good care of the ball, and San Antonio ain't givin' up nothin'. San Antonio is number 2 in the league at taking care of the ball with only 11.8 turnovers a game on offense, and Denver is at 15.7, although i think that number will go down the longer tha Billups plays on that team. So there won't be many fast break opportunitues in this game, which makes for a recipe for the under. Defensive rebounds 31.2 for San Antonio, 31.9 for Denver. Steals 4.4 San Antonio, Denver 9.5. So the Nuggets are taking more chances at attempting to steal the ball, which puts them out of position when they fail to get the ball, but a nice number altogether. And now for the heavy information, defensive shooting percentage. The Nuggets 42.8, San Antonio 44.5. This game has under written all over it, but i do see San Antonio averages 7.7 3 point makes and Denver averages 5 3 pointers made per game. So with a potential of 13 3's made in this game, that's 39 points right there. That leaves 141 points divided between the teams, or 35.25 points per quarter without the threes invlolved, or simply stated a little over 17.50 points per team per quarter.

So as you can see the three ball defense must be at a premium in order for this game to go under when the teams are averaging 172 points on average collectively on defense.

My gut feeling is that this game will go over the total with actual average scores of 185. I feel that this line was lowered in response to all of the unders that have hit between these clubs when they play in Texas. In response t public wagers and a 87% on the over, the line has gone up already from 179 to 180.5, which is what the line is supposed to do accordingly in response to the public pounding the over.

PingPong · 11-19-08, 01:59 PM

hmm, now it's back to PK

IrwinFletcher · 11-19-08, 02:18 PM

Right on bro.. good info there..

dm8582 · 11-19-08, 02:32 PM

any thoughts on philly minny over 189? personally i am liking the over..and philly team total over 96 seems like a lock

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 02:37 PM

dm8582,

Go with the Philly team total to go over 96. Minnesota gives up 102 points per game on average at home. You have 6 points worth of wiggle room.

Also I did a little further research into the Clippers/Thunder game over/under, and sure enough, these teams have gone 5-0 under the last 5 times that they have played with the Clips enjoying a 4-1 ats cover rate. So if anything, I suggest that you play the Clips in the 1st half, and count a couple of dollars. Obviously they just have the Supersonics/Thunder's number. Take into account that the Clips have been horrible at home this year and have played the Lakers and Utah on the road this year, hardly easy teams. The Thunder may be the worst team in the NBA.

dm8582 · 11-19-08, 03:14 PM

thx ..i am def playing phily team total over..gonna stick on the clippers thunder game and risk a few dollars on the over ..i dont trust either of these defenses

the clipps look much beter on paper but i dont see any team chemistry or flow to their game...but i agree with you on the clips tonight..it might just take a game against the thunder to right the ship..any team with baron davis and a decent supporting cast cannnot be this bad right? lol

LUNT101 · 11-19-08, 04:23 PM

CK, thoughts on the Hawks minus the points tonight? Yes they are struggling, but I think Devin Harris really put it to them in his comeback in the back to back games against Jersey and they had no Josh Smith in the middle to put a stop to his dribble penetration. If you saw the reverse line movement last night against Indiana, Atlanta was doomed from the start. Almost 70% of the public was on the Hawks but they kept getting more points. So I think they had a long flight home last night, and will be ready to go to work on a visiting Washington team with no confidence and no coaching.

A quote from Eddie Jordan after their last loss to Miami:

"This team is built a certain way, fellows," Jordan said. "This team is built for Gilbert Arenas to lead us. This team is built for our All-Star forwards to carry the wings for us, and for Brendan Haywood to have a career year manning the middle for us. We don't have those things. And this team, you're asking people to do things that they're not capable of doing. They're not capable of carrying the load for us like a Dwyane Wade, like a Gilbert Arenas. You've got young guys who aren't going to make veteran plays night-in and night-out. You put all those things together, and to be in the game is a credit to everybody in this organization right now. You've got to stay positive, but you've got to be realistic about things."

Pretty much telling his team they have no shot going against a fiesty Atlanta team with a ton of talent.

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 04:45 PM

You know, it's definitely time for Atlanta to blow a team out. I made comments last night after actually watching Washington for the first time this season. The Wizards have abslolutely no interior defense, and their on the ball defense goes something like stay in front of the man for a minute turn and pray that it doesn't go in. They have no fire, or inspiration, and as much as I hate to admit it, they are not worthy of me plcaing a wager on any more this season. that being said they will come out tonight and win the 1st half and lose the game by 15.

showtime2000 · 11-19-08, 04:56 PM

Ck, is Philadelphia an official play for ya? Some trends to support it,

-76ers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.
-Road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
But one iffy trend,
-Underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

showtime2000 · 11-19-08, 04:59 PM

By the way, I hope i don't offend you guys with the "hot" avatars, but the girls are "HOT"!! Way to go!

I can say the same for mine too, a Trini to da bone!

MoneySportsGuy · 11-19-08, 05:10 PM

NBA Wed rocks

nick2060 · 11-19-08, 05:11 PM

the underdog trend would favour minnesota. CK, told a friend about your picks and he's been tailin you past couple of days, he asked me what your picks are for tonight, so you think you could hook me up with your official picks for tonight, or were the three up top your only picks

maddogmadden86 · 11-19-08, 05:22 PM

so CK with all these differnt ideas floating around what is your official card for the night that you are playing?

cocknocker · 11-19-08, 05:27 PM

My official plays are

New Orleans -13.5
Utah -10
Chicago +240 moneyline (light but with might!)

MoneySportsGuy · 11-19-08, 05:29 PM

goodluck in those plays