nba chase 12/13

**Grinder12000** · 03-31-13, 09:41 PM

u need 6 to qualify for 2 series.

That's what I thought and you confirmed in on page 3 or 4. TY. I was double thinking myself.

what do you mean by "20 game moving average" ?

I take each game and + or - the units and create a chart. Then I take 20 games and average them out. Each new game I subtract the the oldest game and add the new on.

The Chase is up about 20 units from the bottom.

**Stifler** · 04-01-13, 05:01 AM

01.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Char: Bobcats 1,10u

S2

(B Bet) Orl fade: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u| Houston 2,31u
(A Bet) Utah: Utah 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Atl: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Atlanta 2,31u

**Grinder12000** · 04-01-13, 06:28 AM

All over Char! +12 Thanks Stif Dang it with Utah - missed that one!

**CheeseHead** · 04-01-13, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

All over Char! +12 Thanks Stif Dang it with Utah - missed that one!

Grinder, you're not going to play Utah tonight are you? Looks like it is a S2 play and I thought your back testing showed that it wasn't worth playing..

**Tedpotter** · 04-01-13, 10:13 AM

This is a stupid question and I apologize but with S1 series do we always play on the team following the streak no matter if it was a losing or winning streak? Like for Charlotte they have a winning ATS streak so now we play them or fade them?

**Stifler** · 04-01-13, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Tedpotter

This is a stupid question and I apologize but with S1 series do we always play on the team following the streak no matter if it was a losing or winning streak? Like for Charlotte they have a winning ATS streak so now we play them or fade them?

Winning series means we play on that team. Losing 3 ATS in a row means we fade that team. We always keep following the streak.

**jimmy007oc** · 04-01-13, 02:27 PM

Hey Stiff, you till playing MLB this season??

**hoescj01** · 04-01-13, 04:25 PM

First MLB plays today. One still left. It's called MLB Chase 2013 in the baseball section.

**Grinder12000** · 04-01-13, 06:45 PM

Grinder, you're not going to play Utah tonight are you? Looks like it is a S2 play and I thought your back testing showed that it wasn't worth playing..

It was an S1 but I made a mistake - Wallco mentioned he thought it was WWW Play and then WWW and it seemed right but we were wrong. Utah is WWW WWW W so we just missed the real play! No S2s LOL

**CheeseHead** · 04-01-13, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

It was an S1 but I made a mistake - Wallco mentioned he thought it was WWW Play and then WWW and it seemed right but we were wrong. Utah is WWW WWW W so we just missed the real play! No S2s LOL

I played them just the other day when they were S1 so didn't miss them lol. With you on not playing S2 anymore though I trust your back testing after seeing how bad S2 has done this year

**easysaid** · 04-01-13, 10:05 PM

ANTLANTA ATS LOSES by 2 fkn Points, on to next..

**Stifler** · 04-02-13, 02:24 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

01.04.2013

S1

(A Bet) Char: Bobcats +12,5 1,10u

S2

(B Bet) Orl fade: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u| Houston -11,5 2,31u
(A Bet) Utah: Utah -10,5 1,10u

S3

(B Bet) Atl: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Atlanta -11 2,31u

records:
S1: W 81 | L 5 (-11,25 units)
S2: W 41 | L 5 (-51,25 units)
S3: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)
S4: W 51 | L 1 (+34,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S2 Orl fade, C Bet on 03.04.2013
- S3 Atl, C Bet on 03.04.2013
- S2 Utah, B Bet on 03.04.2013
- S1 Char, B Bet on 03.04.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 04-02-13, 02:27 AM

02.04.2013

no plays

**imotiv8** · 04-02-13, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

All over Char! +12 Thanks Stif Dang it with Utah - missed that one!

Grinder12000....quick question...of all the upcoming plays which ones fit best in the criteria you have been talking about?

**dalogester** · 04-02-13, 11:37 PM

ty sir

**Stifler** · 04-03-13, 04:21 AM

03.04.2013

S1

(B Bet) Char: Bobcats +12,5 1,10u | Bobcats 2,31u
(A Bet) Atl fade: Knicks 1,10u

S2

(C Bet) Orl fade: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Houston -11,5 2,31u | Spurs 4,85u
(B Bet) Utah: Utah -10,5 1,10u | Utah 2,31u
(A Bet) Atl fade: Knicks 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Atl: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Atlanta -11 2,31u | Atlanta 4,85u

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 07:00 AM

I'm playing

S1A Orlando 56-1
S1B Char 41-0

Srifflers S3 can also be a play but I pulled back a little but I'm playing Atlanta even though I missed the 1st 2 games.

**Askii** · 04-03-13, 08:44 AM

What concerns me on that jazz play is I got the jazz last time at -9 so its a win. Why its still a play I mean if some got it at -9 or -9.5?

**CheeseHead** · 04-03-13, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

I'm playing

S1A Orlando 56-1
S1B Char 41-0

Srifflers S3 can also be a play but I pulled back a little but I'm playing Atlanta even though I missed the 1st 2 games.

S1A Orlando? Orlando isn't listed as a S1 play tonight so where are you getting that from?

**Grinder12000** · 04-03-13, 01:14 PM

S1A Orlando? Orlando isn't listed as a S1 play tonight so where are you getting that from?

From my backtesting - I play Orlando my teams and Stiflers teams don't always match up. In 11 years Orlando is 56-1 as a S1 Follow chase.

**CrazyCarl** · 04-03-13, 02:19 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

From my backtesting - I play Orlando my teams and Stiflers teams don't always match up. In 11 years Orlando is 56-1 as a S1 Follow chase.

Do you think 57 instances of a 4-game series is statistically significant? And, what does Orlando's team from 11 years ago have to do with tonight's game?

**Stifler** · 04-04-13, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.04.2013

S1

(B Bet) Char: Bobcats +12,5 1,10u | Bobcats +5 2,31u
(A Bet) Atl fade: Knicks +1,5 1,10u

S2

(C Bet) Orl fade: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Houston -11,5 2,31u | Spurs -12,5 4,85u
(B Bet) Utah: Utah -10,5 1,10u | Utah -3 2,31u
(A Bet) Atl fade: Knicks +1,5 1,10u

S3

(C Bet) Atl: Atlanta -10,5 1,10u | Atlanta -11 2,31u | Atlanta -1,5 4,85u

records:
S1: W 83 | L 5 (-9,25 units)
S2: W 43 | L 5 (-49,25 units)
S3: W 25 | L 0 (+25,00 units)
S4: W 51 | L 1 (+34,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:
- S3 Atl, D Bet on 05.04.2013
- S2 Utah, C Bet on 05.04.2013

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586

**Stifler** · 04-04-13, 05:10 AM

04.04.2013

no plays today (Denver S1 could be played)

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 06:33 AM

Do you think 57 instances of a 4-game series is statistically significant?

Yes - because not counting this year the entire league as a whole is 1449-72. Which to me shows that there is some good logic behind the picks.

And, what does Orlando's team from 11 years ago have to do with tonight's game?

I don't believe this has anything at all to do with ANY team if you are looking at players/coaches. I believe it has to do with the philotic twining that link living organisms to each and once that twine is stretched to outside the ansible boundaries predictable chaos happens naturally.

**CrazyCarl** · 04-04-13, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

Yes - because not counting this year the entire league as a whole is 1449-72. Which to me shows that there is some good logic behind the picks.

Why does the logic apply more to some teams than others, though?

And how much is each loss? 20ish units? 20*72= 1440. So, 1449-1440, essentially.

**illisdre** · 04-04-13, 04:16 PM

Guys statistics don't matter over a single game. Only over long term... And tats wat a system is

**Grinder12000** · 04-04-13, 04:56 PM

Why does the logic apply more to some teams than others, though?

THAT is the real question isn't it. elevation? humidity? hardness of the floor?

And how much is each loss?

Actually 16.77u so as a whole league it's up 241u. if you played every team. All it shows is that it has relevance and you can do with it what you want. If you want to ignore it fine, ignore it but don't start acting like some know it all cutting it down. It's up about 60u this year from the teams I chose to play. If it truly is random then I'll pay the price some day but until then I'll be looking at you and laughing my way to the bank.

The universe works in strange ways and if you see patterns you can sit there and think about it or you can try to make money on it and figure it out later.

Some people are nervous nellies and worry about losing, some people see opportunities and worry about NOT winning.

**CrazyCarl** · 04-04-13, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Grinder12000

THAT is the real question isn't it. elevation? humidity? hardness of the floor?

Actually 16.77u so as a whole league it's up 241u. if you played every team. All it shows is that it has relevance and you can do with it what you want. If you want to ignore it fine, ignore it but don't start acting like some know it all cutting it down. It's up about 60u this year from the teams I chose to play. If it truly is random then I'll pay the price some day but until then I'll be looking at you and laughing my way to the bank.

The universe works in strange ways and if you see patterns you can sit there and think about it or you can try to make money on it and figure it out later.

Some people are nervous nellies and worry about losing, some people see opportunities and worry about NOT winning.

Who's acting like a know-it-all? Those were questions.

**Stifler** · 04-05-13, 02:33 AM

**Grinder12000** · 04-05-13, 06:19 AM

Orlando is a nice S1B bet also :-) Knicks were not on my list but they are 6-0 this year so I'll play them - good call Stiff

Those were questions.

those were questions everyone asked months ago during the troll days. I was surprised they were all being asked yet again.

**dalogester** · 04-05-13, 02:01 PM

here we go again.

**dogs1972** · 04-05-13, 07:10 PM

Will the mighty S3 finally fall???

**sportscreep1** · 04-05-13, 10:03 PM

I hate Atl

**eroger92** · 04-06-13, 02:28 AM

records:

2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)
overall: 1308-23 (+880,65 units)

Why do we have so many loses this year as compared to past years? Are the numbers correct?

**Stifler** · 04-06-13, 05:26 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

records:
S1: W 84 | L 5 (-8,25 units)
S2: W 44 | L 5 (-48,25 units)
S3: W 25 | L 1 (+ 6,55 units)
S4: W 51 | L 1 (+34,55 units)
additional:
-1,10 units Den fade
-3,41 units S4 Tor fade > closing line covers

pending:

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1586