I would say $5, but that's my opinion. Starting with .5% (.005 of your bankroll) ends up being a 5% of bankroll bet at the end of a 4 game chase, and I'm not too comfortable going higher than that.
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That is way too conservative:
the record of the chase system so far is 1308-23 meaning you are going to win 57 times before you lose a D bet on average.
No need to have a cushion of 20 D bets.
Losing 2 D bets in a row happens every ~3349 times.
Losing 3 D bets in a row happens every ~1937982 times.
If you can cover 3-4 D bets with you bankroll you are absolutely safe, unless there is a drastic change in the win rate of this chase system.Comment -
Just my opinion. If you're comfortable laying 10% of your bankroll or 20% of your bankroll on a single bet, then by all means go with more.
Also I believe the systems often cross over and you'd be laying money on the same team twice.
You talk about losing 2 or 3 in a row, but how about just in a close proximity? Two of the previous seasons had 5 losses. What if in a worst case scenario there ended up being 5 losses within a month, and you're betting 10% on your D bets (not even including what you lost up to that point)? You'd lose nearly half your bankroll, and possibly start hesitating to continue.
It all comes down to personal preference, though. IMO identify the largest you're willing to lay down on a D bet, and calculate what the A bet should be to reach that amount on the D bet.
Of course it would also depend on what your bankroll means to you, and if you'd be willing to deposit again if needed.Last edited by CrazyCarl; 11-13-12, 12:47 PM.Comment -
What Crazycarl is saying/doing is such a great lesson for people. It's not about being most profitable or not, a lot of times it comes down to what you're most comfortable with and he knows himself well enough to unit size in a certain way.
All the props to him for doing that and for those that want to risk more, all the power to you too.Comment -
Stifler...question about S4:
- Team X plays a game finishing in overtime
- We now fade them in their next game as an A bet
- This game also ends in OT but Team X wins
- In their next match we fade them as a B bet
- Do we also start a new series to fade them as an A bet since their last match finished in OT?Comment -
Nino and CrazyCarl know what they are doing. 1% of your bankroll is your best bet. It's not just about how many losses in how much time but also discipline to make the C or D bet when you need to. If your set to where your laying down too much at that level, and it is stressful for you, you need to readjust. If 1% isn't enough for you I still wouldn't surpass 1.5% of your roll. Greed is the #1 reason people lose money in sports betting. Get too hungry and stop playing safe and you are bound to lose in time.Comment -
True it does not have to be two in a row.
I did not do the math, but losing 3-4 D bets in a short period of time is very unlikely.
If I find the time I can compute how likely it is to lose 4 D bets in one month, but I think it's just not happening at this winrate.
And yes, I agree, if this bankroll is a significant portion of my money, than I would play it very safe, probably only take a chunk of it for testing purposes and see how it goes, than work with that.
Especially because you have no guarantee that this system will still work in the future.
All in all, everyone has to decide for themselfs what he does with his money.
If you can easiely replace the money, it's a fairly reasonable approach to start with ~40-60 units.
If this money is a significant amount, which cannot be replaced, you probably want to be very safe, how safe everyone should decide for themselfs.Last edited by fooubar; 11-13-12, 01:24 PM.Comment -
kosti. what does S1, s2, s3, s4 mean?Comment -
I completely agree with those who say you need to stick to a unit around 1-1.5% of your bankroll. To those that also follow this bankroll mgmt., how often do you adjust your unit size?Comment -
Once you start the season at a certain unit size, you need to stick to it the whole way through. just IMO.Comment -
I keep it the same throughout the season. Reevaluating mid season is a recipe for failure. For example you start to win some money, readjust to a higher unit size, then hit a loss. What do you do? Decrease your unit size and take a longer time to recover? Keep your unit size high where it is now a much higher % of bankroll than before? It just causes too many problems and isnt safe. When I start a system I pick an amount and keep it the whole time, next season I reevaluate.Comment -
ok Mantle, what are the s1, s2, and s3 bets for tonight?Comment -
How is that not safe?
If you can pick value on a constant basis it's very reasonable to adjust the betsize.
Say you start with 100 units, you can just set limits when you move up in stake and down:
start 100 units -> 1xbet = 1 units (you can lose 100 bets)
-> 120 units -> 1xbet = 1.2 units (you can lose 20 units until you move down in stake)
-> 150 units -> 1xbet = 1.4 units (you can lose 30 units before you move down in stake)
-> 200 units -> 1xbet = 1.5 units (you can lose 50 before you move down in stake)
You can also use kelly if you know how to, it's even better than this simple outline I did there.
I don't see any problems doing that, just results in bigger profits if you can pick valu on a constant basis.Comment -
What Fooubar sounds reasonable. I am not looking to readjust my unit size after every win/loss but to almost tier it, like above.. Once I have accumulated say 10 to 20 units increase my BR to 1% of where it stands.. Once you begin increasing your unit size you can also decrease it to account for losses taken. I think there is a point to where you can trust the system and not reduce your unit size below what you had originally started with, creating a floor per se.. if you in fact, started at 1% of your initial BR
Let's say I started my BR at $10 a unit, also 1% of my total BR, and over the course of time I was able to increase it to $13. I then took a couple losses bringing my 1% unit size down to $11. Limit, you mentioned it would take longer to recover the losses but in fact I would be recovering my losses quicker than I would had I left my unit size the same throughout the season.. Does that make sense?
Often times BR mgmt. is neglected in these chase threads but this discussion has been great, I think it is one of the most important aspects of running a successful system long term.Comment -
Bjb before you ask anymore questions please read from page 1 through today, it will take you 20 min and will answer all your questions several times over. I fear that if you do not do this you will place misinformed bets, risk to much, and annoy readers of the thread who do know what they are talking about. ThanksComment -
I didn't mention this, but I agree.
With that said, most of the math guys on this forum will completely shit all over any chase system and say it sucks (very smart guys like Justin7). Perhaps they end up being right afterall and that martingales will eventually all fail no matter what. No guarantees. xDComment -
Just want to make sure:
You only bet single games. Never on a parlay bet?
Last year, you made a profit of 125 units. If you're betting 2% of a 1000 dollar bank roll. That turns out to be a 2500 dollar profit? Correct?
Do you play any other chase systems.Comment -
Guys, before anyone goes bankrupt, the point is being missed in regards to money managemnt!
If I use "bigelv" as an example... he has $1000 bankroll... the scenario everyone is going thru is if the system has a loss then you lose 18 units... that's not the bigger picture here...
Say on one day we have 6 "A" bets for example... you have a $1000 bankroll and your betting to win $25 a bet. What happens if worse case secnario, all 6 "A" bets lose...
$27.50 to win $25 each bet... -$165
Your bankroll is down to $835 and you have 6 "B" bets to contend with. So every "B" bet would look like this...
$57.75 to win $52.50... You are going to have to stake $346.50 over the 6 bets, and then taking into consideration the $165 already lost, it's over half your bankroll.
I know this is an extreme example, but it is quite feasible to have 5-6 plays in running at one time on 4 systems... it's also feasible that more than one of them could go past an "A" bet and as far as a "D" bet if not a loss at one time. Having the bankroll to support a loss is one thing, having a bankroll to accommodate bets is another.
When your chasing like this I would honestly say 1% is plenty (probably max)... that's just my opinion. I don't want to see (or hear) anyone losing a load of money, cus it is preventable if your sensible, providing the systems continue to pull in resultsComment -
i would say your not going to chase more than 4 series at a time but i m not sure about that and yes $25 is way to much imoComment -
quick question, if i said a unit for me was ... $10, 100 units would be $1,000?Comment -
yes..anyone else is pissed off because he missed the first 6-7 wins of the season?Last edited by Nino7; 11-13-12, 03:55 PM.Comment -
sweetjones55, paid service. Hate him or love him, i still think he is one of the best nba cappers out there.
right, we would have an A and B bet at the same point on 2 different series.Stifler...question about S4:
- Team X plays a game finishing in overtime
- We now fade them in their next game as an A bet
- This game also ends in OT but Team X wins
- In their next match we fade them as a B bet
- Do we also start a new series to fade them as an A bet since their last match finished in OT?
agree, im not a fan of raising ur unit amount during one seasonOnce you start the season at a certain unit size, you need to stick to it the whole way through. just IMO.
im playing a mlb 4 game chase aswell, already documented all plays for the past season here on sbr.Do you play any other chase systems.Comment -
I appreciate you posting this mate! Insane % for C and D bets
I was just wondering because I hate chasing, I started playing chase systems when I was old enough to gamble, but I can't deal with the stress of it all, and I made a lot of mistakes with MM and discipline! So I play % single plays now, as long as I hit above 50% I will make money.
I will definitely research your systems, very generous of you to post the playsComment -
i know alot people hate chase systems, cause laying big money on C,D,E bets is stressfull...all i can tell about this is - It doesnt matter if ur betting single games or any chase - in the end u try to profit whatever ur playing. And single betting doesnt guarantee + money at the end of a season.Comment
