nba chase 12/13

[Riceboi]

Oh forgot to ask, do you skip playing any teams if one of their starters (or stars) is out for the game?

[Asset]

stifler you are a saint. If i had this many people asking me the same questions over and over again i'd probably hang myself.

lmfao!!

[CrazyCarl]

Stifler you are a saint. If I had this many people asking me the same questions over and over again I'd probably hang myself.

I've been thinking the same thing. xD

[Stifler]

Oh forgot to ask, do you skip playing any teams if one of their starters (or stars) is out for the game?

no, doesnt matter.

[suresystemworks]

Respect to you, bro!

I just have a question! I was thinking, I don't have that much capital to lose a D bet so I'm thinking to stop if C bets lose. Therefore, will consider a C bet loss as a loss in the YTD record. But do you have a stat on how many times you have gone to D bets because you lose C bets? And is it your personal choice to stop at the 4th chase? Or you have a stat-based rationale on why you chose it?

Thanks a lot!

[suresystemworks]

As there are many request for the teams which qualify for every system im posting teams here. These teams still could change year to year, depending on the data i have listed in excel.

S1 teams:

Boston (W streaks only)
Brooklyn (L streaks only)
NYK
Toronto
Chicago
Detroit
Indiana (W streaks only)
Milwaukee (W streaks only)
Atlanta (L streaks only)
Charlotte (W streaks only)
Denver
Utah
Sacramento (L streaks only)
SA Spurs

S2 teams:

Boston
Cleveland
Atlanta
Orlando
Utah

S3 teams:

Toronto
Indiana
Atlanta
Charlotte
Golden State

S4 teams:

Toronto
Chicago
Atlanta
Miami
Washington
Minnesota
LA Clippers
Sacramento
Dallas
Memphis

Oh and these teams, you chose them because they're the ones in your excel in the past years, right? But how about the acquisition of new players? Do you also take that into account? Thank you, pal! Trying to understand your great system!

[dlunc3]

good stuff in here... and who says betting isnt easy?

[suresystemworks]

good stuff in here... and who says betting isnt easy?

as long as you have capital. lol

[NicoleAniston]

Since Orlando is a S2 and have lost the previous +6.0, +3.0, +8.0 spreads. Should we Orlando fade: New York -6,5 1,10u ?

[thelovefool]

Hey awesome system. Don't know if I completely understand it yet. Cleveland is a S2 play tonight, right? I mean they lost three in a row on the road and they are starting the chase on the road?

[NicoleAniston]

Hey awesome system. Don't know if I completely understand it yet. Cleveland is a S2 play tonight, right? I mean they lost three in a row on the road and they are starting the chase on the road?

Correct me if i'm wrong it's only against the spread (ATS). Cavs covered against the suns +3.0 11/09. There hasn't been a streak yet of 3 winning or losing streaks (+5.5 Golden State L 96-106, +3.0 Phoenix L 105-107, +10.0 Okla City L 91-106, previous 3 games.)

[thelovefool]

Correct me if i'm wrong it's only against the spread (ATS). Cavs covered against the suns +3.0 11/09. There hasn't been a streak yet of 3 winning or losing streaks (+5.5 Golden State L 96-106, +3.0 Phoenix L 105-107, +10.0 Okla City L 91-106, previous 3 games.)

Aaah, seems to make sense. Thx!

[Stifler]

Respect to you, bro!

I just have a question! I was thinking, I don't have that much capital to lose a D bet so I'm thinking to stop if C bets lose. Therefore, will consider a C bet loss as a loss in the YTD record. But do you have a stat on how many times you have gone to D bets because you lose C bets? And is it your personal choice to stop at the 4th chase? Or you have a stat-based rationale on why you chose it?

Thanks a lot!

I do have the stats for a 3 game chase, will post it later today. Though i think u just have bad money management, u probably just have to minimize ur unit stake. Its clear a 100$ unit on a 1000$ bankroll is pretty bad money management.

[Stifler]

12.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) Atl fade: Portland -2,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Dal fade: Minnesota +6,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S4: W 3 | L 0 (+3,00 units)

pending:
- S1 Atl fade, B Bet on 14.11.2012

[Stifler]

Correct me if i'm wrong it's only against the spread (ATS). Cavs covered against the suns +3.0 11/09. There hasn't been a streak yet of 3 winning or losing streaks (+5.5 Golden State L 96-106, +3.0 Phoenix L 105-107, +10.0 Okla City L 91-106, previous 3 games.)

exaclty, spread streaks is what matters, no moneyline.

Since Orlando is a S2 and have lost the previous +6.0, +3.0, +8.0 spreads. Should we Orlando fade: New York -6,5 1,10u ?

orlando line pushed last game + S2 means u have to divide in home/road games, last 3 games were: road, home, road.

[Asset]

Isn't there a game today such as an S4 fade Toronto @ Indiana?

[Mantle7]

[QUOTE=dlunc3;16753108]good stuff in here... and who says betting isnt easy?[/QUOTE

Just wait till you run into a couple D bets. However, I watched Stiflers MLB chase this year and it was a success. I think I'm gonna hop on for fun.

[Stifler]

13.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) Sac fade: Portland +3 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Tor fade: Indiana -9,5 1,10u

[bigelv]

Though i think u just have bad money management, u probably just have to minimize ur unit stake. Its clear a 100$ unit on a 1000$ bankroll is pretty bad money management.

What do u think is a good amount to start a bet on the first game of a chase if you have a bankroll of $1000

[Nino7]

What do u think is a good amount to start a bet on the first game of a chase if you have a bankroll of $1000

$10

[harry]

Thanks for posting all your stuff, much appreciated!

I have a couple of questions, I read through this thread and I don't think they have been asked...


The teams that qualify for your plays... you said on the 1st page that you have data for every single team and the teams that qualify are based on those stats... I assume these stats are quite detailed, but I guess I am just wondering how detailed, can a loss for a team that is being chased cause them to be dropped, or is it more to do with actual game stats like points scored etc??

Also, was wondering if you have the records for each bet, so for instance...

2011-2012
(A bet) - 50-50
(B bet) - 30-20
(C bet) - 10-10
(D bet) - 10-0

Something like that?? I was just curious on how bets perform on each level.


Cheers Stifler

[fooubar]

What do u think is a good amount to start a bet on the first game of a chase if you have a bankroll of $1000

If you have another source of income, I'd split it into two banks, 500$ each.

25$ is 1 unit so you can stand to lose two D bets, which should not happen very often.
You'd probably end up winning your first $500 before a D bet loses.

Afterwards I'd be going with a conservative amount of 4 bankrolls of $500 each.
Increase the unit size by $1 every time you win ~80$.

This sounds like a fairly safe approach if the chase system continues to work as it has in the past.

[Grinder12000]

Isn't that a B bet ? Portland lost last night?? Or is it too early in the morning for me!

(A Bet) Sac fade: Portland +3 1,10u

[bigelv]

If you have another source of income, I'd split it into two banks, 500$ each.

25$ is 1 unit so you can stand to lose two D bets, which should not happen very often.
You'd probably end up winning your first $500 before a D bet loses.

Afterwards I'd be going with a conservative amount of 4 bankrolls of $500 each.
Increase the unit size by $1 every time you win ~80$.

This sounds like a fairly safe approach if the chase system continues to work as it has in the past.

Sounds like a good plan. I'm going to start the unit at $20 for this chase. This way I can continue to wager on my other sports. Thanks for the advice

[harry]

Sounds like a good plan. I'm going to start the unit at $20 for this chase. This way I can continue to wager on my other sports. Thanks for the advice

Just make sure you stay disciplined with your amounts... I work for a betting company, they take hundreds of thousands of £££ each day because about 1/1000 people have discipline with their money and actually know what they are doing.

I wouldn't exceed $20 with your bankroll, if your splitting it into 2 as well, I would say reduce that

BOL

[Nino7]

Isn't that a B bet ? Portland lost last night?? Or is it too early in the morning for me!

yesterday was "Atl fade",today is "SAC fade"

[Stifler]

What do u think is a good amount to start a bet on the first game of a chase if you have a bankroll of $1000

20$ is fine if ur just playing this system. 50 units will cover 2 losses in the worst case and will leave some rest.

The teams that qualify for your plays... you said on the 1st page that you have data for every single team and the teams that qualify are based on those stats... I assume these stats are quite detailed, but I guess I am just wondering how detailed, can a loss for a team that is being chased cause them to be dropped, or is it more to do with actual game stats like points scored etc??

Also, was wondering if you have the records for each bet, so for instance...

2011-2012
(A bet) - 50-50
(B bet) - 30-20
(C bet) - 10-10
(D bet) - 10-0

Something like that?? I was just curious on how bets perform on each level.

Teams wont change during the season. Next year teams could change based on their stats. Statistics on points scored doesnt matter at all, all that matters is performing on ATS combined with the 4 systems.

2. I do have the winning percentages on A, B, C, D Bets for every year, every system. I will post winning % later today. Overall winning % for every system and all 6 seasons enough?

[harry]

Teams wont change during the season. Next year teams could change based on their stats. Statistics on points scored doesnt matter at all, all that matters is performing on ATS combined with the 4 systems.

2. I do have the winning percentages on A, B, C, D Bets for every year, every system. I will post winning % later today. Overall winning % for every system and all 6 seasons enough?

Top bloke, really appreciate it!

[Stifler]

Isn't that a B bet ? Portland lost last night?? Or is it too early in the morning for me!

pending:
- S1 Atl fade, B Bet on 14.11.2012

Sac fade has nothing to to with that. Its a new starting series today.

[zilchy]

This looks interesting, surprised at how few of these series lose. Nice work man! Going to hop on but not risk too much just in case this season sucks or something. I'm going with $25 units and $2000 bankroll for this.

[Nino7]

20$ is fine if ur just playing this system. 50 units will cover 2 losses in the worst case and will leave some rest.

Stifler,are you sure 2% per unit is fine?i mean the worst season got 6 losses...there is a real risk to go broke with 50 units there if 2-3 losses come back to back...dont you think?
plus if a day get buzy with several series on B-C-D at a time u might not even have the bank to place all the bets...i would say 1% is safer..plz tell me im wrong so i can bet bigger

[Stifler]

Stifler,are you sure 2% per unit is fine?i mean the worst season got 6 losses...there is a real risk to go broke with 50 units...dont you think?

But those 6 losses didnt came in at the beginning. Meanwhile there are winning series aswell. As for a 50u bankroll ur able to cover 2 losing series in the beginning and still would have like 13 units left. Even though starting a season on a 4 game chase with 2 losing series would be major unlucky.

What unit size would be ur advice for a 1000$ bankroll?

[Stifler]

Just to make sure, i started with a 60 unit bankroll. But i also play single bets (getting picks here from a good nba better in my mind) + half of this bankroll sits in future bets. So technical i just started with like 30units, but im already sitting @ like +24 units overall (not just this chase system) + the open future bets.

[Nino7]

But those 6 losses didnt came in at the beginning. Meanwhile there are winning series aswell. As for a 50u bankroll ur able to cover 2 losing series in the beginning and still would have like 13 units left. Even though starting a season on a 4 game chase with 2 losing series would be major unlucky.

What unit size would be ur advice for a 1000$ bankroll?

I would start with $10 but im trying to find an argument to convince myself to bet bigger because it could be really rewarding by the end of the season.
The thing is YES you ve got to be VERY BAD LUCKY to start a season with 2 losing series but you are not going to stop betting by the end of the season,and over the long run, the extrem bad luck senarios eventually always happen so you might skyrocket your bankroll fast but you might lose it even faster as high as you got while the bad serie happen if you keep using this strategy.
What i 've learned is from 4 yr using chasing systems is that the effort has to be put on surviving the cold streaks.If your bankroll management is not built for this purpose,you will swing fast and high but will always be broke at the end.
I might start with 57 units though,thats a 3 losses shield or maybe 76 i dunno :/ BOL

[Nino7]

definitely 73,8 units thats 4 losses shield,1 unit = 1,35%