nba chase 12/13

[Stifler]

Here is a question. Team wins lets say 7 ATS in a row and then a lose. Is that 4, 3 game streaks? OR - do you start over after a series win with "1W"

W
W
W - 3 game streak
W - A Bet begins + new streak begins
W
W - 2nd 3 game streak
W - A Bet begins + new streak begins
L - strak broken

means if a team wins/lose 7 ATS in a row u will have 2x 3 game streaks.

[Lctham]

first of all, cheers stifler for taking the time to explain it all! I think I get it all now. System C and D are easy to follow, but how do you keep track of the ats streaks? just manually yourself or through some site that gives you the results?

also since lines can move, do you take the closing line for the match?

cheers again and heres to a successful season!

[racer43]

first of all, cheers stifler for taking the time to explain it all! I think I get it all now. System C and D are easy to follow, but how do you keep track of the ats streaks? just manually yourself or through some site that gives you the results?

also since lines can move, do you take the closing line for the match?

cheers again and heres to a successful season!

Just use NBA.com, under the standings tab they have a streaks column

[racer43]

I guess the home/away streaks you have to do manually

[Stifler]

first of all, cheers stifler for taking the time to explain it all! I think I get it all now. System C and D are easy to follow, but how do you keep track of the ats streaks? just manually yourself or through some site that gives you the results?

also since lines can move, do you take the closing line for the match?

cheers again and heres to a successful season!

all researches were made on covers.com. I do all the capping there...

[Want2Win]

Just great Stifler! and like everyone has said, you take the time to explain even the simplest questions. so I have a question, who is the guy in your avatar?

[Lctham]

pretty sure nba.com doesnt track ats records. will check out covers.com

cheers

[mrk77]

Hey Stifler, great job on your research. I'm just curious as to what determines what teams are qualified for your systems?

[Grinder12000]

Thanks Stifler - I was looking at some old 2002 data files and just picked a random team - BAM WWWWWWWL ummmmm what do I do LOL

Your answer was exactly what I was looking for. Otherwise you could have so many different lines going with one team.

[thelimit0310]

Just great Stifler! and like everyone has said, you take the time to explain even the simplest questions. so I have a question, who is the guy in your avatar?

It's Stifler. There's a movie called American Pie and one of the characters in the movie is named Stifler, the guy from the movie is the avatar.

[Lctham]

records:

2006/07: 227-5 (+131,75 units)
2007/08: 217-2 (+180,10 units)
2008/09: 232-6 (+121,30 units)
2009/10: 240-4 (+166,20 units)
2010/11: 211-3 (+155,65 units)
2011/12: 181-3 (+125,65 units)
overall: 1308-23 (+880,65 units)

Do you have a breakdown of your record by System? So we can see if one is more successful than the others,

Cheers

[Asset]

i listed Atl fade as a S2 play first but already edited this. Atl fade for S2 will be a series play on the next home game of Atlanta (on 19.11.2012)[/QUOTE]

Why Orlando @Atlanta system play on the 19/11/2012? Not on 12/11/2012 Atlanta @Portland? Maybe because its part of an S3 streak? Sorry still trying to understand, forgive me

[Stifler]

11.11.2012

S3

(A Bet) Atl fade: LA Clippers -5,5 1,10u

records:
S1: W 4 | L 0 (+4,00 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S3: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S4: W 2 | L 0 (+2,00 units)

[Stifler]

Do you have a breakdown of your record by System? So we can see if one is more successful than the others,

Cheers

i will post it later in the evening, im @ work atm.

Why Orlando @Atlanta system play on the 19/11/2012? Not on 12/11/2012 Atlanta @Portland? Maybe because its part of an S3 streak? Sorry still trying to understand, forgive me

Atlanta fade will be a S1 play today, as they lost 3 games in a row ATS. Atlanta fade will also be a S2 play, as they lost the last 3 games @ home ATS. Means we are starting the S2 Atl fade on 19.11.2012 (the next game @ home)

Roger that?

[Grinder12000]

fade Dallas?? S4? Once the line comes in! I love this play anyway.

[sexmann]

lakers+3,5 lost, so why isn´t it listed as a loss in s1?

[Want2Win]

So if Atlanta is a fade today in both the S1 and S2, and if you were betting 1 unit on a play, would you recommend betting 2 units today on the fade since the play comes in both systems?

[Stifler]

lakers+3,5 lost, so why isn´t it listed as a loss in s1?

cause im a scummer faking my records

nah...this is a 4 game chase system. All explained in here...A record of 220-5 or smth like that is simply impossible for single betting, if i would hit on that percentage u sure could watch me lying on the beach getting my balls scratched 24/7.

So if Atlanta is a fade today in both the S1 and S2, and if you were betting 1 unit on a play, would you recommend betting 2 units today on the fade since the play comes in both systems?

Atlanta fade is just a S1 play today, the S2 play will start on 19.11.2012. I will list todays games when the minnesota line is up @ my bookie.

[gambler705]

lakers+3,5 lost, so why isn´t it listed as a loss in s1?

because the utah fade won the next game (play on Denver) for 2x units...the "series" won

[sexmann]

thanks for explaining!

[suresystemworks]

so are you chasing Minnesota? Line's at +7.5@Dallas

[fooubar]

Fade Dallas will be S4 play, if I understand it correctly.

Stifler have several questions for you.

i) How do you come up with the teams for S1-S4, you just backtest the teams on the previous season for those streaks? What about teams, that have a completely different roster than the previous season?
ii) You tried that for totals as well?
iii) Can easiely think of other streaks that might be profitable, you tried anything else?

[Stifler]

12.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) Atl fade: Portland -2,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Dal fade: Minnesota +6,5 1,10u

[Stifler]

so are you chasing Minnesota? Line's at +7.5@Dallas

no as u can see im fading Dallas on S4. Thats why todays play is on Minnesota

[Stifler]

Fade Dallas will be S4 play, if I understand it correctly.

Stifler have several questions for you.

i) How do you come up with the teams for S1-S4, you just backtest the teams on the previous season for those streaks? What about teams, that have a completely different roster than the previous season?
ii) You tried that for totals as well?
iii) Can easiely think of other streaks that might be profitable, you tried anything else?

1. i backtested all sytsems on every team for the last 6 seasons and filtered the best looking numbers. I have listed all the data in excel
2. no
3. i checked some other systems aswell, some were not that good and a few i keep in mind and start recapping after this season. I do think of something involving back to back games.

But for now, those 4 systems are fine.

[Grinder12000]

Wait - hasn't Atlanta also lost 3 in a row?? They both have lost 3 ATS in a row. right?? Not double checking you LOL

OOPS - never mind - not on the list!!! My bad.

BTW - FAV streak continues +18.2 units, I've been playing the chalks blindly like a monkey from day one. Worked in 2010 for +35 units until the dogs started to take over on December 21st.

[Asset]

@Stifler: Thank-you again for all your hard work and your great at answering all the questions

[Stifler]

Do you have a breakdown of your record by System? So we can see if one is more successful than the others,

Cheers

S1

2006/2007: 107-3 (+ 51,65 units)
2007/2008: 106-0 (+ 106,00 units)
2008/2009: 114-2 (+ 77,10 units)
2009/2010: 119-4 (+ 45,20 units)
2010/2011: 98-2 (+ 61,10 units)
2011/2012: 76-2 (+ 39,10 units)
overall: 620-13 (+ 380,15 units)

S2

2006/2007: 44-1 (+ 22,55 units)
2007/2008: 43-2 (+ 6,10 units)
2008/2009: 48-1 (+ 29,55 units)
2009/2010: 45-0 (+ 45,00 units)
2010/2011: 48-1 (+ 29,55 units)
2011/2012:38-0 (+ 38,00 units)
overall: 266-5 (+ 170,75 units)

S3

2006/2007:22-0 (+ 22,00 units)
2007/2008: 22-0 (+ 22,00 units)
2008/2009: 24-1 (+ 5,55 units)
2009/2010: 24-0 (+ 24,00 units)
2010/2011: 24-0 (+ 24,00 units)
2011/2012: 23-1 (+ 4,55 units)
overall: 139-2 (+ 102,10 units)


S4

2006/2007:54-1 (+ 35,55 units)
2007/2008: 46-0 (+ 46,00 units)
2008/2009: 46-2 (+ 9,10 units)
2009/2010: 52-0 (+ 52,00 units)
2010/2011: 41-0 (+ 41,00 units)
2011/2012: 44-0 (+ 44,00 units)
overall: 283-3 (+ 227,65 units)

[Jtwa]

12.11.2012

S1

(A Bet) Atl fade: Portland -2,5 1,10u

S4

(A Bet) Dal fade: Minnesota +6,5 1,10u

First off. Great system and great thread. I'm new to this forum, but I have been reading your plays and your system works. Well done.

Question though: when you post (A Bet) Dal fade: Minnesota +6,5 1,10u
This means: Bet Minnesta to lose by less than 6.5 (cover the spread) and to bet 1.10 unit of my stack. Correct?

If so, I'm a little confused on why you put 6,5 instead 6.5?

[Asset]

@Jtwa: His 6,5 = 6.5; he just likes to use commas . And yes you've got it

Sorry Stifler to hijjack your great forum, but I just figure I try lessen the workload for you

[cubfan2121]

@Jtwa: His 6,5 = 6.5; he just likes to use commas . And yes you've got it

Sorry Stifler to hijjack your great forum, but I just figure I try lessen the workload for you

Ahhh that makes sense now
couldnt figure out what the commas were

so for system 1 2011 -2012 was in the positive 39.1 units, correct?

[Grinder12000]

Jtwa - correct.

As for the "," and "." My bet is that it's a formatting thing in Excel???

If you think this is tough - try baseball and THOSE lines!!

NUMBER CRUNCHING the systems

S1= +0.60 units per line
S2= +0.63
S3= +0.72
S4= +0.79

Not a lot of difference considering you are also talking not only quality of wager but quantity! S1 the riskiest is also the most abundant.

[alexknyc]

My bet is that Stiffler is European.

[Stifler]

My bet is that Stiffler is European.

cha$hed !!!

so for system 1 2011 -2012 was in the positive 39.1 units, correct?

correct

S1= +0.60 units per line
S2= +0.63
S3= +0.72
S4= +0.79

sry but i dont get this...

[thelimit0310]

Stifler you are a saint. If I had this many people asking me the same questions over and over again I'd probably hang myself.