Thatguy's NBA Plays

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 29-24-2 +1.45 units

Nov 17
This is it.. make or break day after some shocking variance over the past few days. GL
Short writeups due to limited time on my part.

Play #1
Raptors +7.5 vs Celtics 1x 1.95
Cannot believe we're getting this line of 7.5 and had to roll with it. Celtics have key players missing and although this match is away for the Raps they should compete well against Boston. They've have had plenty of rest and with an offensive game Toronto should be competitive. Rolling 1x Raptors +7.5 at 1.95. GL


Play #2
Clippers vs Bulls UNDER 195.5 2x 1.95
Saw this at all books for 192 except 1 which was holding onto the higher number. Had to pound this. Bulls need to slow down this game to be in it and if it turns into a shoot out Clips pull away fast. Line of 192 gives little to no value - have this total at 192. If you can get 195 or above go for it. Playing UNDER 195.5 2x 1.95 for mine. GL

Play #3
Jazz -2.5 vs Wizards 1x 1.95
Might be a square play but have the Jazz highly ranked for this matchup, more so then 2pts. Being on a BTB shouldn't slow down the pace and expect them to be fired up after last nights disappointing loss. GL

Play #4
Spurs vs Nuggets UNDER 200.5 1x 1.95
This is a defensive matchup tonight. Spurs have been holding out sides like Nuggets very well so far this season - letting in an average of only 93ppg. Similarly, Nuggets defensive total is a fairly low 96ppg. Have this matchup at 191 and rolling 1x UNDER 200.5 GL

[qwe123]

Clippers vs Bulls UNDER 195.5 2x 1.95

TG would you still take this bet at 1.75?

[therealdealau]

as always good luck pal, lets cash.

[That Guy]

Adding:

(final play)

Play #5
Spurs -6 vs Nuggets 1x 1.95
No time for a write up. Spurs should have the edge on this matchup and are strong performers against Nuggets.
GL

[That Guy]

as always good luck pal, lets cash.

cheers mate you too

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 32-26-2 +3.25 units

2unit + gain today with Spurs -6 never in doubt and all but 1 total cashing today
Now 2-1 with plays of 2units or more after Clips UNDER cashing. Back on the right track and ready to pound the books again tomorrow.
Confident with more data the model gets the more accurate totals forecasting will become.. variance is the killer.

[Crowing Capers]

Spurs are a covering cash cow...
Won plenty on them late last season. Just about a autobet on Spurs line for me every game.

Good to see you couple units up for day , keep it going man. Get on that streak.

[therealdealau]

Nice day mate, loved the Spurs play wish I jumped on it but I had too many plays already! Keep it goin'

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 32-26-2 +3.25 units

18 Nov

Play #1
Lakers vs Rockets OVER 205.5 1x 1.95
First look on model and this total looks way too high. However we're getting our highest total of the year for good reason - Lakers offense completely different to start of the year and trending up solidly over last 3x games. D'Antoni will run his usual fast transition strategy and we should see two sides killing it offensively. Based on last 4 games from each side this total hits 210.. Rolling 1x OVER 205.5 at 1.95 GL

Play #2
Rockets +7.5 vs Lakers 1x 1.90
Hate playing 2 different plays on the one game but had to grab this. Rockets have lost only 1 game by 6points or more and that was against Grizzlies (forgiveable). Think they keep this one close as well and have them at +4 on model.. so some value in it. GL

Play #3
Warriors vs Thunder UNDER 199 1x 1.95
We've seen both sides perform well above their avg ppg the past few games for no apparent reason. Things should come back down to earth a little for this matchup. OKC defensive is some of the best in NBA, keeping teams to just 92ppg, while GSW have enough problems of their own scoring.. hitting just 93ppg on average. Model has this at 190 but GSW up/down patchy form holding me back from making this a 2x play. Rolling 1x UNDER 199 at 1.95. GL

Play #4
Nets -3 vs Kings 1x 1.95
Hitting -3.5 at some books but found -3 while it still lasts. Johnson should do well against the Kings and Nets lineup looks impressive overall. Kings battling player issues as well. Play seems a no-brainer and model has Nets -7. Rolling Nets -3 1x 1.95. GL


Possible plays to come after lines come out on TOR vs ORL & DET vs BOS...

[sando]

Good luck today mr. Gold. your totals look solid as always, I'm probably not playing any today, got a big card as it is and struggling to hit over 50% on my totals last 7 days. With you on the Nets, expected more from the Kings this year and they haven't really shown anything so far this season.

[therealdealau]

Good luck pal

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #5
Pistons vs Celtics UNDER 189 1x 1.95
The UNDER looks good at this number. No time for a write up. Model has it at 185 and both teams due to hit a lower total after exceeding avg ppg last few games. GL

[sando]

WOW - 128 point first half, i'm gonna go out on a limb and say Lakers over cashes! Boys if you like to play totals Mr. Gold is your man.
You should know that totals services like totals4you charge $900 a season for this sort of insight.

[therealdealau]

Great day, let's finish with the Rockets covering COME ON!

[That Guy]

WOW - 128 point first half, i'm gonna go out on a limb and say Lakers over cashes! Boys if you like to play totals Mr. Gold is your man.
You should know that totals services like totals4you charge $900 a season for this sort of insight.

haha.. thanks mate. Appreciate the compliments!
Would still like to be hitting a little better this season but hopefully this is the start of it rolling forward.

Great day, let's finish with the Rockets covering COME ON!

Tell me about it.. fire up Rockets! Turn a good day into a great day if they cover

[therealdealau]

It will turn my day around pal, need this. Let's go Rockets big forth here boys.

[therealdealau]

Ouch.

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 35-28-2 +4.10 units

18 Nov 3-2

Back on the grind
Rockets failing to cover killed what would have been a 3unit+ day. Can't complain with Lakers OVER looking like cashing in the first quarter and BOS / DET staying UNDER.
Let's get em again tomorrow!

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 35-28-2 +4.10 units

19 Nov
Let's belt the books against today and hit a few plays!

Play #1
Memphis -7 vs Nuggets 1x 1.95
Denver away from home and a well rested Grizzlies side makes this game a play. Memphis dismantled the undefeated Knicks and not buying a bounce back factor for Nuggets here - they're simply missing way too many shots & Gallinari is off the boil big time. Grizz should pull away in the 4th quarter and hit the COVER. Model has Mem -9.5 for this match up. Rolling 1x MEM -7. GL


Play #2
Spurs vs Clippers OVER 198.5 1x 1.95
Last time they met the total hit 190 even though Spurs could only manage a score in the 80's. Further along in the season with both teams killing it offensively and the OVER looks good. Spurs have hit OVER 200 4x this season against sides with similar stats to the Clips. Pace should ensure this game keeps flowing and we should get a score of 202 according to the model. Playing the OVER 198.5 1x 1.95
GL


Play #3
Warriors vs Mavs UNDER 200 1x 1.95
Couldn't find this line yet in the US but appeared on Aussie books.. assume it'll open at a similar number.
Warriors coming off a BTB of lights out basketball against OKC should be keen to slow this down. Mavs avg ppg is naturally low, so it should swing in that direction. All things being equal this hits 194 on the model with the potential for a lower total.
Hitting this UNDER 200 1x 1.95. GL

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #4
Jazz vs Rockets UNDER 196.5 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup.. really like this play GL

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 36-30-2 +2.05 units

Blah... day wasn't looking too bad until OT hit in the GSW/DAL game and killed a positive day. Dammit
Totals still out performing team plays and looking to make strong positions over the next few weeks.
Will be based out of LAX & NYC over next 4 weeks for work and have lots of time to cap / refine models and watch games.
Last Aussie based plays tonight before it goes US till late Dec.

[hjrozay]

That was a horrible beat TG on GS and Dallas. I was on the same play and number.

Hopefully the variance gods can go the other way, they have been making such a massive difference the last couple.

As always love your work.

[That Guy]

That was a horrible beat TG on GS and Dallas. I was on the same play and number.

Hopefully the variance gods can go the other way, they have been making such a massive difference the last couple.

As always love your work.

cheers mate

Horrible beat.. UNDER looked well & truly cashed. Even in OT it looked like it could stay UNDER.
Better luck tomorrow

[1sob]

tough break TG

[aussieH]

It was unlucky. Will you be offline for a few days whilst travelling?

[therealdealau]

Keep it going mate. You going to catch and ball games when you are over there?

[bovholty]

Keep up the good work tg. Really appreciate the analysis along with the plays

[freshguy222]

hey man,
do you by chance know your totals record? thinking about tailing you in totals and nba for everything if you are really as good in totals as he says.
thanks for all the work, appreciate it.

[That Guy]

hey man,
do you by chance know your totals record? thinking about tailing you in totals and nba for everything if you are really as good in totals as he says.
thanks for all the work, appreciate it.

Hey man.. will need to track back and have a look - leave it with me

[That Guy]

Keep it going mate. You going to catch and ball games when you are over there?

Hey mate..
Yep - definitely. Very keen to catch the Knicks at home, also get the chance to see Raptors in Toronto hopefully.
Will be good capping in US time for a change.

Shouldn't miss any games travelling unless there are delays - hopefully not. GL tomorrow

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 36-30-2 +2.05 units

19 Nov

Not too much time for a writeup. Early morning trip to the airport calls

Play #1
Raptors vs 76ers UNDER 182.5 1x 1.95
Been looking at this all day. Raptors should slow it down against a slow paced side struggling with offensive pace.
Have this at 178 an playing 1x UNDER 1.95 GL

Play #2
Lakers -6 vs Nets 1x 1.95
Time to fade the Nets big time in LA. Away record is not flash for the Nets and should be time for a big let down.
Locking in Lakers -6. GL


Play #3
Lakers vs Nets UNDER 207.5 1x 1.95
Massive total and all it takes is for one side to not show up and the UNDER hits - it's a fine line with totals this high but Nets avg ppg is the let down with the high total. Averaging 97ppg against some weak defensive sides we should get a much lower figure against the Lakers.
Not a fan of hitting 2x plays on the 1 game.. but can't go past this total. GL

[SpreadSniper]

Blah... day wasn't looking too bad until OT hit in the GSW/DAL game and killed a positive day. Dammit

Perfect example of losing while being on the "right" side.... sometimes it pays to be lucky, but I'd rather be goooood.

BOL on the season

[SpreadSniper]

P.S - it's the 20th today.... losing a day is worse than losing money!

[Catchn_Picks]

Clear under...well handicapped...consider it an emotional/intellectual win and just a bad beat.

[That Guy]

Nov 21

No time for writeup.. Jetlagged as all hell in NYC.

Play #1
Spurs -1.5 vs Celtics 1x 1.95

Play #2
Knicks -3 vs Mavs 1x 1.95


Play #3
Lakers vs Kings 1H over 103 1x 1.95

Play #4
Bobcats -2 vs Raptors 1x 1.95


Play #5
Pacers vs Hornets OVER 181 1x 1.95


GL