Thatguy's NBA Plays

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 26-19-2 +4.00 units

Nov 15

Play #1
Spurs vs Knicks UNDER 196.5 1x 1.95
Watched this line open 4pts lower and was considering an OVER play, but it's risen too high and think defense will hold together for this matchup and have it at 193pts. GL

Play #2
Nets vs Celtics OVER 190.5 1x 1.95
Every slow paced team the Nets have played they've managed to speed them up and turn it into wall to wall basketball. Celtics need pace and should get some. If they land the shots this goes well over 190.5. Playing the OVER at 1.95. GL

[That Guy]

looking forward to the rest of the season ThatGuy

There is a saying in Chinese proverbs that " taking a step back is a huge step to moving forward". So looking forward to your pick tommorow. Cheers

Hey mate, been seeing your name mentioned on the forum quite a bit in particular your specialty in totals. Thought i'd pop in an have a look and share some support. Record is good mate, very hard to find people who can consistently be succulence in totals, doing well so far. Keep it up

Cheers guys. First year capping NBA full-time. Hopefully we get some winners today. Good luck!

[sando]

NBA Regular Season 26-19-2 +4.00 units

Nov 15

Play #1
Spurs vs Knicks UNDER 196.5 1x 1.95
Watched this line open 4pts lower and was considering an OVER play, but it's risen too high and think defense will hold together for this matchup and have it at 193pts. GL

Play #2
Nets vs Celtics OVER 190.5 1x 1.95
Every slow paced team the Nets have played they've managed to speed them up and turn it into wall to wall basketball. Celtics need pace and should get some. If they land the shots this goes well over 190.5. Playing the OVER at 1.95. GL

Mr. Gold let's settle on a total of say 195 in the Knicks/Spurs game. That way I hit my over and you hit your under. Like play #2, had a strong lean on the over in that game. GL.

[That Guy]

Mr. Gold let's settle on a total of say 195 in the Knicks/Spurs game. That way I hit my over and you hit your under. Like play #2, had a strong lean on the over in that game. GL.

Deal
Missed the 191 last night on Knicks.. good spot to middle!

[therealdealau]

good luck pal lets cash!

[qwe123]

Deal
Missed the 191 last night on Knicks.. good spot to middle!

Funny story.. I blind tail both you and sando (football fan just getting into NBA betting recently), and without realising that I'd already tailed Sando's OVER 193 from last night, I tailed your UNDER 196 this morning.

Fingers crossed the score lands somewhere in that range and I get a big payday!

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #3
Nuggets vs Heat OVER 202.5 2x 1.95
No time for writeup.. GL

[gamewinninglv]

Added:

Play #3
Nuggets vs Heat OVER 202.5 2x 1.95
No time for writeup.. GL

Barely got this in.........

[qwe123]

Funny story.. I blind tail both you and sando (football fan just getting into NBA betting recently), and without realising that I'd already tailed Sando's OVER 193 from last night, I tailed your UNDER 196 this morning.

Fingers crossed the score lands somewhere in that range and I get a big payday!

Aww

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 27-21-2 +1.95 units

Nov 15 1-2
Wow.. Heat taking slowing up in 4th quarter really killed this OVER. Unfortunately unit sizing at the start of the season has affected the BR figure. Plays still 27-21 ahead yet we're up only 1.95
This is not good enough from mine. Will be working on +EV plays a little harder and pushing the big ones.
If you've followed up until this point - cheers. Apologies for not achieving what we set out to do at the start of the season.

Rest assured I'm not going to drag these plays into the -NEG unit territory and try to 'win' back any bad plays. If it hits zero or below it's time to re-examine the model and have a deeper look. But confident we can rebound in the next few days.

[clting08]

1 : 2 again huh!! But I will still Tail. I make some profits from live betting in Nuggets games +2.27K.. But lost on Spurs -5 -1K

Lost 1k tailing you. overall make +0.27 (270) Ha ha that what we call betting...

[SiMON2g]

Come back strong tomorrow mate

[MrXYZ]

NBA Regular Season 27-21-2 +1.95 units

Nov 15 1-2
Wow.. Heat taking slowing up in 4th quarter really killed this OVER. Unfortunately unit sizing at the start of the season has affected the BR figure. Plays still 27-21 ahead yet we're up only 1.95
This is not good enough from mine. Will be working on +EV plays a little harder and pushing the big ones.
If you've followed up until this point - cheers. Apologies for not achieving what we set out to do at the start of the season.

Rest assured I'm not going to drag these plays into the -NEG unit territory and try to 'win' back any bad plays. If it hits zero or below it's time to re-examine the model and have a deeper look. But confident we can rebound in the next few days.

That's some wise thinking! Definitely agree. Too many guys try to bail themselves out after hitting negative units. It may work in the short term but leads to big losses eventually.

Heat/Nuggets was on track, just unlucky on that one. Good luck tomorrow TG.

[therealdealau]

I have a feeling variance comes into play more so when betting totals than spreads, I may be wrong as I don't ever bet totals but it just seems tough. Games look like their going over then there is a slight dip in offense or a team wants to slow the pace and you lose by a couple baskets, it would frustrate me. I'm extremely impressed at your methodical approach and non-tilting. Keep going man, if I ever decided to bet a total i'd make sure you approved first. Let's get some cash.

[That Guy]

That's some wise thinking! Definitely agree. Too many guys try to bail themselves out after hitting negative units. It may work in the short term but leads to big losses eventually.

Heat/Nuggets was on track, just unlucky on that one. Good luck tomorrow TG.

100% correct!
If that happens I'll rename the post to "Thatguy - Digging A Grave, D-Gen plays"
Why should anyone follow someone who's losing?
I wouldn't.. and threads with -10unit totals IS NOT BAD LUCK. You're losing and luck has nothing to do with it.

[bovholty]

you'll get it back and then some

[aussieH]

It is a long season and no damage done yet. Big day coming soon

[Crowing Capers]

keep grinding this shit TG... been tailing you since start of NRL season and you have made us plenty of coin mate.

backing you in to get on a streak. GL man. lets get it

[That Guy]

It is a long season and no damage done yet. Big day coming soon

keep grinding this shit TG... been tailing you since start of NRL season and you have made us plenty of coin mate.

backing you in to get on a streak. GL man. lets get it

Cheers!
Let's get em'

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 27-21-2 +1.95 units

A lot of very sharp totals on the books today.. was hoping for more plays then usual but not the case.

Play #1
Jazz +2 vs 76ers 1x 1.85
Model showing the exact opposite to the books with Jazz the favs. So have to take this while it's on offer and go with the play. Public all over 76ers to win based on shocking away record to Jazz.. but eventually it's got to turn and 76ers don't look too flash.
Rolling Jazz +1.5 at 1.85. GL

Play #2
Pistons vs Magic OVER 184 1x 1.95
Key here is the loose defense from both sides which is driving up the total. Easy baskets should make this a competitive game and drive Pistons & Magic higher. Have this game at 187 on model and hitting the OVER 184 1x 1.95 GL

Play #3
Blazers vs Rockets UNDER 198.5 1x 1.95
Have this total much lower at 192 and if the bankroll wasn't so tight I'd hit it for 2x. Rockets are not the offensive team we're used to seeing and Blazers are all over the place. Portland have been hitting OVERS against teams with bad defense but Rockets defense is holding up fairly well & should do the job to keep it under. Rolling 1x UNDER 198.5 at 1.95. GL


Possible play on the Lakers still to come... good luck!

[therealdealau]

on the jazz with you brah lets crash this man, Utah big's gonna go OFFFFFFF

[That Guy]

on the jazz with you brah lets crash this man, Utah big's gonna go OFFFFFFF

Let's get it..
BTW - how did Wildcats lose tonight?
Massive favourites. Putting no money into NBL anymore but results still driving me crazy!

[bassytelfair]

Nice bets you have been posting here mate ! I am also considering taking Jazz win tonight ) Good luck !

[clting08]

Tailed 3u each.. Good Luck to us..

[elPkay]

Under 184 isn't available anymore. Too bad

[MrXYZ]

We dodged a bullet last night on the Wildcats. NBL is getting worse each week.

I'm on the over in the 76ers/Jaz game. Missed the line move on the Pistons/Magic game but rolling with your other two plays. Let's go!

[therealdealau]

We dodged a bullet last night on the Wildcats. NBL is getting worse each week.

I'm on the over in the 76ers/Jaz game. Missed the line move on the Pistons/Magic game but rolling with your other two plays. Let's go!

Season member. First game last name, I'm glad we lost straight up didn't deserve to win. Horrible display of skill by both teams. I was yelling for Redhage to be benched all game.

[therealdealau]

Let's get it..
BTW - how did Wildcats lose tonight?
Massive favourites. Putting no money into NBL anymore but results still driving me crazy!

Come on Jazz pound it inside.

Wildcats were horrible, Redhage was awful he missed so many 3ft shots, he missed putbacks with no one on him...was just a horrid display of skill.

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #4
Knicks vs Grizzlies OVER 191 1.5x 1.95
Good spot for the over to hit after opening much higher. Knicks averaging a massive 103ppg and although Grizz defense pretty tight NY should penetrate. Grizz love the fast paced action and should play into Knick's hand. Have this game at 195 and the total moving lower gives this play room to breathe. Locking in OVER 191 1.5x 1.95. GL

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #5
Lakers vs Suns UNDER 201.5 1x 1.95
Waited to grab this after it opened at 200.5 on my book. Lakers defense has been tight and playing Spurs total to a low 166 after books had it almost 30pts higher showed that. Suns fast pace almost matches the Spurs and if Lakers play in similar fashion & keep it controlled we're looking a total around 189. However given the last extremely low total something in mid 190's is not out of the question. Hitting the UNDER 201.5 at 1x 1.95. This is the final play for today. GL

[qwe123]

Oh, Utah

[aussieH]

Laker game total at 202.5 at tab

[That Guy]

Laker game total at 202.5 at tab

That's a great number.. can only find 201 & 201.5 online at my books

[aussieH]

202.5 at tab sportsbet for 1.87. They generally charge more juice

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 29-24-2 +1.45 units

Every single game hitting the OVER today.. can you believe that? EVERY GAME PLAYED!
9/9 all hitting the OVER - not even the books could get close to predicting that!
Safe to assume Lakers game hits OVER as well..
Another 'almost evens' day.. 1 winning play away from cashing 2units+. Frustrating at the moment. Good to cash Knicks and Detroit plays going way over.
Some great plays tomorrow and will hit em' hard - going hard or going home tomorrow.