Thatguy's NBA Plays

[therealdealau]

updated: NBA Regular Season 23-16-2 +3.75 units

Nov 12 2-3

Tough day. Totals 2-1 for the day which is postive but the leans for MIA and POR let us down.
Will be concentrating more on totals moving forward which is what the model is geared towards. Most sharp cappers on the wrong side of the books today as well...
Grind continues tomorrow

Unlucky day pal, Portland are a thorn in my side I cannot cap them - they used to be incredible at the Rose Garden but their lack of bench might just be their undoing this season. They literally have no offensive presence off the bench, i can only imagine how bad they will look if anyone in their starting 5 is out for an extended period. Their only shining light this season is Lillard, Batum could have a break out year though he's getting the shots he asked for. Heat didnt really do anything too bad it was more of the Rockets hitting rubbish. As you said, your totals are absolute cash, I don't really know much about totals you would be my go to guy.

[sando]

updated: NBA Regular Season 23-16-2 +3.75 units

Nov 12 2-3

Tough day. Totals 2-1 for the day which is postive but the leans for MIA and POR let us down.
Will be concentrating more on totals moving forward which is what the model is geared towards. Most sharp cappers on the wrong side of the books today as well...
Grind continues tomorrow

I hear you mate, had a rough day today as well, I had two of the three totals you did and must say I was quietly confident in the Philly/Bucks under. Guess a 60 point first quarter didn't help our cause. Oh well there is never any time to wallow in your defeats in the nba as the next days card is always just around the corner. Good luck.

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 23-16-2 +3.75 units

Nov 13

Play #1
Raptors Vs Pacers OVER 184.5 1x 1.95
Last time they played the line opened at 188.5 in first game of the season for these sides.. yet as pace has improved for both teams and ppg average is much greater we get a lower line?
Books have obviously factored the Raptors BTB in OT last night, however if anything it should work in Pacers favour who have been struggling with points. Raptors lack of points are not the danger here - they avg 96ppg and let in over 99ppg. Pacers have been fast paced but are just bricking shots this year.. some loose D from Raptors and they'll get more time in the paint. Interestingly, totals so far this year have been much higher (on avg) when a team is playing BTB.
Really like the OVER on this game and Raptors should be fired up for a big game & some payback. Model has the total 189 on this matchup. Rolling OVER 184.5 1x 1.95.

Play #2
Blazers vs Kings UNDER 196 1x 1.95
Kings have been performing above their avg pace and avg efficiency the last few games. Blazers should play this game tight and desperately need a win. Their weakness is defense - it simply doesn't exist and they're the worst in the NBA at the moment for leaking points.. so effectively we have one of the worst teams offensively (Kings) vs the worst team defensively (Blazers). J Fredette has been on fire for the Kings and without him firing the Blazers could wrack up some points *side note - would love to see a prop when it comes out. Model has this game meeting somewhere in the middle when it comes to the total.. at 190. Rolling the UNDER 196 for 1x. GL


Looking at a play on LAL vs SA when it comes out later....

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #1
Raptors Vs Pacers OVER 184.5 1.5x 1.95 (0.5 added to play above)
Most books moving up and like this number a lot despite a few sharps pounding the UNDER because of the BTB and 2 OT last night.
GL

[ThaBigG]

GL I got it at 185.5. Hopefully it hits

[amarius87]

this game is horribly under.. wishing pacers tie it and goes to ot! no offensive skills at all.

[amarius87]

raptors have 2 points in 8 minutes... fatigue or no skill lol. indi cant finish

[ThaBigG]

Even if OT hits it will still stay under lol

[That Guy]

0/4 in the last 40secs from Pacers to send it to OT damn

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #3
Spurs vs Lakers UNDER 197.5 2x 1.95
No time for a write up. Under looks good from mine as Lakers will try and slow it down. GL

[sando]

0/4 in the last 40secs from Pacers to send it to OT damn

Yeah I was praying for the OT too mate, oh well your analysis was sharp as always, just one of those games, I mean Raptors were +400 at the m/l from memory. To be honest I was tossing up this O/U for ages and thought I'd have a look around SBR and see what other people thought, once I checked your thread and saw how keen you were it pushed me over the edge on the play. I usually play a lot of totals as you do mate, haven't checked any numbers but they seem to be falling heavy on the under ATM, have you noticed?

[qwe123]

Adding:
Play #3
Spurs vs Lakers UNDER 197.5 2x 1.95
No time for a write up. Under looks good from mine as Lakers will try and slow it down. GL

Would you take it at 196 @ 1.90?

EDIT: took it

[clting08]

TG, do I need to hedge it out???? Please advice. Games starts in 20 mins time..

1

2826507372 MIX PARLAY 11/13/2012 07:22:36 PM

San Antonio Spurs -1.00 @1.97 Basketball / Handicap LA Lakers -vs- San Antonio Spurs NBA @ 11/13/2012 Over 196 @1.89 Basketball / Over/Under Brooklyn Nets -vs- Cleveland Cavaliers NBA @ 11/13/2012 New York Knicks -6.50 @1.77 Basketball / Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- New York Knicks NBA @ 11/13/2012

6.59 E

200.00 200.00

Running

[1sob]

TG, do I need to hedge it out???? Please advice. Games starts in 20 mins time..

1

2826507372 MIX PARLAY 11/13/2012 07:22:36 PM

San Antonio Spurs -1.00 @1.97 Basketball / Handicap LA Lakers -vs- San Antonio Spurs NBA @ 11/13/2012 Over 196 @1.89 Basketball / Over/Under Brooklyn Nets -vs- Cleveland Cavaliers NBA @ 11/13/2012 New York Knicks -6.50 @1.77 Basketball / Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- New York Knicks NBA @ 11/13/2012

6.59 E

200.00 200.00

Running

nice hit

[That Guy]

TG, do I need to hedge it out???? Please advice. Games starts in 20 mins time..

1

2826507372 MIX PARLAY 11/13/2012 07:22:36 PM

San Antonio Spurs -1.00 @1.97 Basketball / Handicap LA Lakers -vs- San Antonio Spurs NBA @ 11/13/2012 Over 196 @1.89 Basketball / Over/Under Brooklyn Nets -vs- Cleveland Cavaliers NBA @ 11/13/2012 New York Knicks -6.50 @1.77 Basketball / Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- New York Knicks NBA @ 11/13/2012

6.59 E

200.00 200.00

Running

Sorry mate.. was at work when you posted this. Good work!

[That Guy]

Yeah I was praying for the OT too mate, oh well your analysis was sharp as always, just one of those games, I mean Raptors were +400 at the m/l from memory. To be honest I was tossing up this O/U for ages and thought I'd have a look around SBR and see what other people thought, once I checked your thread and saw how keen you were it pushed me over the edge on the play. I usually play a lot of totals as you do mate, haven't checked any numbers but they seem to be falling heavy on the under ATM, have you noticed?

hey mate,

I'm a big fan of UNDERS. Public are all over the OVERS (so to speak) and from past analysis UNDERS hit more often then OVERS.
Obviously the public prefers to watch the score rise / bets hit when you're 3/4 thru the game etc..
Next time junk my analysis and run with your own!
Thought a fatigue Rapitors would give Pacers more opportunities to rack up a score.. but turns out the Pacers are still sh!thouse regardless. Should have dug deeper into Pacers stats and not focused on Raptors as the weakness... had Pacers hit shots the OVER would have cashed. Anyway.. good day overall!

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 25-17-2 +5.10 units

Nov 13 2-1
Grinding forward with more gains today.
Unfortunate the Raptors OVER didn't hit. Raptors kept up with pace despite the BTB game and double OT yesterday.. but yet Pacers couldn't keep up and sink shots.
Gotta love UNDERS that look good from the first 5mins - Lakers & Blazers game were exactly that.

Totals are the sole focus from now on.. more action tm!

[clting08]

Sorry mate.. was at work when you posted this. Good work!

I hegde out 1/3 of the wining on lakers +1.5..Lost

[angelo63]

Great work mate, been following you this NBA season and it will get us right back to the NRL Season. I was wondering if you have tried your model at soccer over unders?. Soccer is the most popular sport in the world and there is a game on every day all day. In the soccer forum a guy has been doing very well with his over /unders his name is wtt0315,his record speaks for itself and also his temperament is much like yours, professional, Intelligent and most importantly a Winner. Good Luck with the season and may there be more winning days than losing ones. Cheers

updated: NBA Regular Season 25-17-2 +5.10 units

Nov 13 2-1
Grinding forward with more gains today.
Unfortunate the Raptors OVER didn't hit. Raptors kept up with pace despite the BTB game and double OT yesterday.. but yet Pacers couldn't keep up and sink shots.
Gotta love UNDERS that look good from the first 5mins - Lakers & Blazers game were exactly that.

Totals are the sole focus from now on.. more action tm!

[That Guy]

Great work mate, been following you this NBA season and it will get us right back to the NRL Season. I was wondering if you have tried your model at soccer over unders?. Soccer is the most popular sport in the world and there is a game on every day all day. In the soccer forum a guy has been doing very well with his over /unders his name is wtt0315,his record speaks for itself and also his temperament is much like yours, professional, Intelligent and most importantly a Winner. Good Luck with the season and may there be more winning days than losing ones. Cheers

Hey mate,
Looking forward to NRL next year and another good year.. can't wait.
Not a big fan of soccer so guess that doesn't help when it comes to capping - gotta enjoy it and not sure I would. Maybe in the future you never know.
Have to check out wtt0315 - sounds like he's on the money. GL till NRL 13' mate!
Hopefully can grind away a few more NBA wins and setup a good season. Cheers

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 25-17-2 +5.10 units

Nov 14
Only one good looking line so far... hopefully more to come when they open.

Play #1
Mavs vs Wizards UNDER 193 1x 1.95
Wizards totals so far have been extremely low, even against fast paced sides and blow out games. If this OVER hits it will be the biggest total the side has gotten all year. Highest so far is 192 but the avg ppg of just 85 is ensuring we get low totals. Mavs should frustrate the Wizards offense and they will attempt to slow pace down. Have this match at 188pts and rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

Waiting for 2x more totals to open but this might be the only play for today. Can't force anything if it doesn't look the goods.

[vaas187]

Adding:

Play #1
Raptors Vs Pacers OVER 184.5 1.5x 1.95 (0.5 added to play above)
Most books moving up and like this number a lot despite a few sharps pounding the UNDER because of the BTB and 2 OT last night.
GL

who gives a fukk if a book moves the number. tbh, EVERY number i've seen move up or down, outcome has been the opposite.

[aussieH]

A lot of totals have moved down today. Maybe a swing to overs today based on an over reaction

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 25-17-2 +5.10 units

Nov 14
Only one good looking line so far... hopefully more to come when they open.

Play #1
Mavs vs Wizards UNDER 193 1x 1.95
Wizards totals so far have been extremely low, even against fast paced sides and blow out games. If this OVER hits it will be the biggest total the side has gotten all year. Highest so far is 192 but the avg ppg of just 85 is ensuring we get low totals. Mavs should frustrate the Wizards offense and they will attempt to slow pace down. Have this match at 188pts and rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

Waiting for 2x more totals to open but this might be the only play for today. Can't force anything if it doesn't look the goods.

Adding:

Play #2
Bobcats vs Timberwolves OVER 183.5 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup.. Have this total much higher at about 188 and rolling 1x OVER.
GL

[That Guy]

who gives a fukk if a book moves the number. tbh, EVERY number i've seen move up or down, outcome has been the opposite.

I gave a fukk because OVER 186.5 which is where the books were moving to was a no play from mine and at the time believed the play was worth x1.5.
Not making plays BASED on line movements - that's stupid. Just wanted to get in before the total was not playable... obviously helps beating the closer but a sh!t is a sh!t play regardless.

[sando]

Adding:

Play #2
Bobcats vs Timberwolves OVER 183.5 1x 1.95
No time for a writeup.. Have this total much higher at about 188 and rolling 1x OVER.
GL

Let's roll...

[That Guy]

Adding:

Play #3
Clippers vs Heat OVER 196.5
Too fast paced sides and Clippers at home should be amped up and ready to roll. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 26-19-2 +4.00 units

Nov 14 1-2
Two steps forward and one step back.. Bobcats game went quiet for 3mins and we miss the over by a few points. DAMN.
Miami game was always headed OVER - so great to hit that.
Next week or so is crucial for setting up the rest of the season with the model I've got for totals.. we'll see if it goes the distance with +EV now that there is enough data to load it up.
Some good looking totals for tomorrow already.. will post soon.

[therealdealau]

keep grinding my man

[That Guy]

keep grinding my man

Always will!

[hjrozay]

I back you TG. Good way to finish the day with the over in Miami.

Keep the grind up. You got the right approach, hopefully you can add to those units tomorrow.

Real unlucky Kemba Walker nailed that buzzer beater. Moving on strong.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Very interested in your NRL analysis.
I have been working on a system for a couple of years.
Would be keen to hear your thoughts.
PM me when you get a chance.

[bovholty]

looking forward to the rest of the season ThatGuy

[clting08]

updated: NBA Regular Season 26-19-2 +4.00 units

Nov 14 1-2
Two steps forward and one step back.. Bobcats game went quiet for 3mins and we miss the over by a few points. DAMN.
Miami game was always headed OVER - so great to hit that.
Next week or so is crucial for setting up the rest of the season with the model I've got for totals.. we'll see if it goes the distance with +EV now that there is enough data to load it up.
Some good looking totals for tomorrow already.. will post soon.

There is a saying in Chinese proverbs that " taking a step back is a huge step to moving forward". So looking forward to your pick tommorow. Cheers

[SiMON2g]

Hey mate, been seeing your name mentioned on the forum quite a bit in particular your specialty in totals. Thought i'd pop in an have a look and share some support. Record is good mate, very hard to find people who can consistently be succulence in totals, doing well so far. Keep it up