Thatguy's NBA Plays

That Guy · 11-07-12, 04:20 PM

Adding:

Play #4
Grizzlies vs Bucks UNDER 198 1x 1.95
Sorry. No time for a write up. Getting a much smaller number for this game around 193, so rolling 1x UNDER 198. GL

Last and final play for the day.

That Guy · 11-07-12, 11:42 PM

updated: NBA Regular Season 11-8-2 +1.55 units

Nov 7 1-2-1

Variance killed 2x plays in the last 5secs that would have made this a great day.
Raptors hitting a shot to close the gap to 5 points killed Mavs -6 at the last minute and then Grizzlies got us a push at 198 total.
Can't cap that stuff.. just got to work thru it.

Lakers OVER was the only play today that didn't look the goods.. so it really should have been 3-1. But 'amazing happens'.. sometimes good, sometimes bad.

Grind on tomorrow!

therealdealau · 11-07-12, 11:53 PM

Keep the grind going, the Mav's game was a debacle. 14 or so lead with 3-4 minutes left, poor turnovers by vet players and missed technical FT from Mayo really hurt that spread.

bovholty · 11-08-12, 03:33 AM

Thanks for your hard work

hjrozay · 11-08-12, 04:32 AM

As you said TG a little bit variance. Hopefully in the next few games you can get a bit of luck.

Besides the games you played did you like anything else on the board today?

As for Mavs and Raps. No way should that Mavs team let them back in so easily, but its the NBA and strange shit happens everynight.

That Guy · 11-08-12, 04:59 AM

Originally posted by hjrozay

As you said TG a little bit variance. Hopefully in the next few games you can get a bit of luck.

Besides the games you played did you like anything else on the board today?

As for Mavs and Raps. No way should that Mavs team let them back in so easily, but its the NBA and strange shit happens everynight.

Hey mate..
Liked the UNDER for BOS / WAS - was kicking myself looking at the score.. then it went to OT so that's okay.
Also liked OVER for CHA / PHO - there were good stats for a big over.. but just couldn't bring myself to trust Bobcats to pull big numbers. I mean it's the Bobcats! Was a missed opp

That Guy · 11-08-12, 07:42 AM

NBA Regular Season 11-8-2 +1.55 units

Nov 8
Totals are spot on.. have a slight lean to CHI / OKC UNDER but not playing it. OKC on the road are still a tough team to beat and could lift this game to higher totals. If offense improves for the Bulls the game hits the OVER.

Play #1
Bulls vs Thunder -2 1x 1.95
Thunder have it all over the Bulls statistically for this match - hitting more then double the 3 pointers % and Durant is on fire.
Durant vs Deng is a key matchup and Durant is due for a big 4th quarter. With the game on the line the Bulls have no 'go to' player they can turn to.. Deng isn't it and his weakness should be exposed. Hamilton needs to dig up some 2004 form to make it a game changer. Should be a close one with Bulls providing the best defense in the NBA but 4th quarter will determine the winner. Taking Thunder -2 1x 1.95. Should see this slip to -3.5 by game time according to model. GL

Play #2
Trail Blazers vs Clippers ML 1x 1.95
Clippers are explosive on offense and if they bring some of their game against the Spurs it'll be a long night in Portland. Blazers will struggle with a heavy offensive game especially with a weak bench - they statistically have the weakest bench in the NBA averaging just 12pts. Clippers on the other hand have the strong bench at the moment and should continue to forward momentum. Only downside is will the Clipps actually turn up? Against weaker sides they've struggled, but somehow managed to turn it on against the Spurs and Lakers.
Rolling Clippers ML for 1x 1.95. Got this early at 5Dimes while other books were moving to -0.5 and -1 but it should still be available elsewhere.
GL

qwe123 · 11-08-12, 10:44 PM

Good call on OKC, beat the spread and then some.

Keep up the great work TG!

therealdealau · 11-08-12, 10:45 PM

CASH IT, thunder wasn't going to choke this 4th quarter like they did vs the Spurs...!

That Guy · 11-09-12, 01:42 AM

updated: NBA Regular Season 13-8-2 +3.45 units

Nov 8 2-0

Boom!

OKC edging it out in the end thanks to Durant and Clipps always in control.
Been experimenting with a slightly different way to cap totals based on predictive pace / possession combined with avgs and player stats - back testing seems to be more accurate then the current model.
So will tweak that and let it loose on some plays tomorrow that look good.

gamewinninglv · 11-09-12, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

updated: NBA Regular Season 13-8-2 +3.45 units

Nov 8 2-0

Boom!

OKC edging it out in the end thanks to Durant and Clipps always in control.
Been experimenting with a slightly different way to cap totals based on predictive pace / possession combined with avgs and player stats - back testing seems to be more accurate then the current model.
So will tweak that and let it loose on some plays tomorrow that look good.

Awesome !!! Looking forward to your picks for tomorrow's games.

aussieH · 11-09-12, 06:04 PM

Anything on the board today

That Guy · 11-09-12, 06:08 PM

NBA Regular Season 13-8-2 +3.45 units

Nov 9
Not much time for writeups... some great looking plays today:

Play #1
Heat vs Hawks UNDER 200 1x 1.85
Missed the opener of 201.5 but this is still good value. Hawks should look to slow things down and against OKC who play a similar pace the total was low - 170's. Have this game at 191 on the model so rolling with 1x UNDER at 1.85. GL

Play #2
Bucks -1 vs Wizards 1st quarter 1x 1.90
Bucks pace in the 1st quarters has been lightning speed... should dominate the Wizards who normally get off to a slow start.
Rolling Bucks -1 1st quarter 1x 1.90. GL

Play #3
Celtics vs 76ers OVER 178.5 1x 1.90
Celtics will be keen to out on a good show at home after a horrible start to the year. Their average is significantly down thanks to the Wizards who put up some strong D in their 2x games. In all the other games the Celtics have hit the OVER. 76ers are in a similar position and are due for a breakout tonight. Model has this game at 184. GL

Play #4
Jazz vs Nuggets UNDER 203.5 1x 1.95
Jazz are not the team they were last year and so far their totals / pace has been much lower. They have been led by opposition offense who have dictated the speed of play - Nuggets are also much slower and not in the top 5 NBA pace. With avg ppg of just 96 ad 97 this game needs a big push to hit the OVER. Have it at 196 on the model and rolling with 1x UNDER 203.5. GL

ThaBigG · 11-09-12, 06:18 PM

Damn got the heats under @ 198, should of got it last night! Good luck TG

That Guy · 11-09-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by ThaBigG

Damn got the heats under @ 198, should of got it last night! Good luck TG

Just got it this morning and saw it fall 2pts about 5mins later.. lucky to get it. GL mate

aussieH · 11-09-12, 06:29 PM

Heat game at197.5

amarius87 · 11-09-12, 07:23 PM

trailling the buks first quarter... buks have come back from 12-0 down to take 21-16 lead...

amarius87 · 11-09-12, 07:30 PM

absolutely no defense with these two teams!

amarius87 · 11-09-12, 07:34 PM

great call on the bucks! buzzer beater!

That Guy · 11-09-12, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by amarius87

great call on the bucks! buzzer beater!

cheers

1 more play to make it a perfect 4-0 day..

therealdealau · 11-09-12, 10:03 PM

Killing it mate love your work.

clting08 · 11-09-12, 10:21 PM

12	2817398544 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:38:45 PM	Milwaukee Bucks -1.00 Handicap Washington Wizards -vs- Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.90 M	2000.00 2000.00	1800.00 0.00	Won HT 0 : 0 FT 28 : 30
13	2817399313 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:39:54 PM	Under 200 Over/Under Atlanta Hawks -vs- Miami Heat NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.81 M	2000.00 2000.00	1620.00 0.00	Won HT 46 : 42 FT 89 : 95
14	2817399561 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:40:14 PM	Over 178.5 Over/Under Boston Celtics -vs- Philadelphia 76ers NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.81 M	2000.00 2000.00	1620.00 0.00	Won HT 45 : 57 FT 100 : 106
15	2817399683 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:40:24 PM	Brooklyn Nets -3.00 Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- Brooklyn Nets NBA @ 11/09/2012	-0.99 M	2000.00 1980.00	2000.00 0.00	Won HT 36 : 50 FT 68 : 107
16	2817400654 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:41:47 PM	Brooklyn Nets -3.00 Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- Brooklyn Nets NBA @ 11/09/2012	-0.99 M	2000.00 1980.00	2000.00 0.00	Won HT 36 : 50 FT 68 : 107

BET WON

Thanks Buddy

P.s Wrongly entering Brooklyn/Orlando twice.. HA HA that's My luck...

That Guy · 11-10-12, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by clting08

12	2817398544 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:38:45 PM	Milwaukee Bucks -1.00 Handicap Washington Wizards -vs- Milwaukee Bucks 1st Quarter NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.90 M	2000.00 2000.00	1800.00 0.00	Won HT 0 : 0 FT 28 : 30
13	2817399313 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:39:54 PM	Under 200 Over/Under Atlanta Hawks -vs- Miami Heat NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.81 M	2000.00 2000.00	1620.00 0.00	Won HT 46 : 42 FT 89 : 95
14	2817399561 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:40:14 PM	Over 178.5 Over/Under Boston Celtics -vs- Philadelphia 76ers NBA @ 11/09/2012	0.81 M	2000.00 2000.00	1620.00 0.00	Won HT 45 : 57 FT 100 : 106
15	2817399683 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:40:24 PM	Brooklyn Nets -3.00 Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- Brooklyn Nets NBA @ 11/09/2012	-0.99 M	2000.00 1980.00	2000.00 0.00	Won HT 36 : 50 FT 68 : 107
16	2817400654 Basketball 11/09/2012 07:41:47 PM	Brooklyn Nets -3.00 Handicap Orlando Magic -vs- Brooklyn Nets NBA @ 11/09/2012	-0.99 M	2000.00 1980.00	2000.00 0.00	Won HT 36 : 50 FT 68 : 107

BET WON

Thanks Buddy

P.s Wrongly entering Brooklyn/Orlando twice.. HA HA that's My luck...

no probs.. Wish I'd entered my bets twice as well! haha

That Guy · 11-10-12, 01:09 AM

updated: NBA Regular Season 17-8-2 +7.05 units

Nov 9 4-0

Boom!

4-0 day and impressed with tweaks to totals model. Hopefully the variance stays on our side again tomorrow.

sando · 11-10-12, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

updated: NBA Regular Season 17-8-2 +7.05 units

Nov 9 4-0

Boom!

4-0 day and impressed with tweaks to totals model. Hopefully the variance stays on our side again tomorrow.

Mr. Gold - BOOM!

hjrozay · 11-10-12, 01:38 AM

Mate. The Bucks late shot cover set the tone of variance coming back your way. Props on the sweep.

I'm not sure of all results but it seemed like most favourites if not all covered today.

Especially public favs - Miami & Ny. Vegas must be hurting a little as NFL results geared towards the public last weekend.

Much Respect.

binomial · 11-10-12, 01:48 AM

gamewinninglv · 11-10-12, 02:49 AM

Originally posted by That Guy

NBA Regular Season 13-8-2 +3.45 units

Nov 9
Not much time for writeups... some great looking plays today:

Play #1
Heat vs Hawks UNDER 200 1x 1.85
Missed the opener of 201.5 but this is still good value. Hawks should look to slow things down and against OKC who play a similar pace the total was low - 170's. Have this game at 191 on the model so rolling with 1x UNDER at 1.85. GL

Play #2
Bucks -1 vs Wizards 1st quarter 1x 1.90
Bucks pace in the 1st quarters has been lightning speed... should dominate the Wizards who normally get off to a slow start.
Rolling Bucks -1 1st quarter 1x 1.90. GL

Play #3
Celtics vs 76ers OVER 178.5 1x 1.90
Celtics will be keen to out on a good show at home after a horrible start to the year. Their average is significantly down thanks to the Wizards who put up some strong D in their 2x games. In all the other games the Celtics have hit the OVER. 76ers are in a similar position and are due for a breakout tonight. Model has this game at 184. GL

Play #4
Jazz vs Nuggets UNDER 203.5 1x 1.95
Jazz are not the team they were last year and so far their totals / pace has been much lower. They have been led by opposition offense who have dictated the speed of play - Nuggets are also much slower and not in the top 5 NBA pace. With avg ppg of just 96 ad 97 this game needs a big push to hit the OVER. Have it at 196 on the model and rolling with 1x UNDER 203.5. GL

Thank you for the winners today sir.

aussieH · 11-10-12, 03:50 AM

Great work.

SiMON2g · 11-10-12, 03:59 AM

Good stuff Ari!

That Guy · 11-10-12, 06:09 PM

NBA Regular Season 17-8-2 +7.05 units

Nov 10
Some very sharp totals on the board tonight so not as many plays as first hoped. Not much time for writeups..

Play #1
Wizards +8.5 vs Pacers 1x 1.95
Wizards stats stack up well next to the Pacers and their efficiency / pace is actually better on avg then the Pacers. Wizards will be keen for a big game after getting rolled by the Bucks yesterday. Rolling Wizards +.85. GL

Play #2
Spurs vs Trailblazers UNDER 198 1x 1.95
Trailerblazers defense this year has been great. They've managed to slow down high scoring sides and produce slow scores - keeping the Rockets to just 81 pts was a good effort. It should be the game plan today otherwise the Spurs will dominate this match completely.
Seeing a total of 191 on the model. GL

Play #3
Bucks vs Celtics OVER 191.5 1x 1.95
This game opened at 189.5 on my books - kicking myself for not grabbing that number. We saw yesterday a breakout game by the Celtics with a total well over 200. Today they're up against the fastest paced side in the NBA who average over 98pts ppg. If the trend continues it happens again today on a large scale. Model has this total at 196 which is high considering past stats for Celtics are extremely low. Playing the OVER 191.5 1x 1.95. GL

Play #4
Suns vs Jazz UNDER 204 1x 1.95
We saw a classic example of the Jazz losing it in the second half yesterday. They have the pace but just drop shots too easily when the going gets tough. Against the Suns this game should slow down considerably in the 4th quarter and land somewhere in the 195-198 total range. Playing the UNDER 204 1x 1.95. GL

MrXYZ · 11-10-12, 08:02 PM

Beat the closer on all of them. Celtics/Bucks now 193.5.

ultrasouth · 11-10-12, 08:03 PM

190.5 NSW tab

ThaBigG · 11-10-12, 09:20 PM

Nice work on the Wizards bro

clting08 · 11-10-12, 10:03 PM

19

2821031496
Basketball
11/10/2012
07:32:54 PM

Washington Wizards 8.00
Handicap
Indiana Pacers -vs- Washington Wizards
NBA @ 11/10/2012

0.93
M

1000.00
1000.00

930.00
0.00

Won
HT 49 : 49
FT 89 : 85

BET WON

Thanks

But I Took Boston / Mil under 190.

24

2821145696
Basketball
11/10/2012
09:26:47 PM

Under 190
Over/Under
Milwaukee Bucks -vs- Boston Celtics
NBA @ 11/10/2012

-0.85
M

1000.00
850.00

Running