Thatguy's NBA Plays

SiMON2g · 10-30-12, 07:21 AM

Good luck bud

MrXYZ · 10-30-12, 07:32 AM

Good Luck TG.

That Guy · 10-30-12, 07:35 AM

Originally posted by SiMON2g

Good luck bud

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Good Luck TG.

Cheers.. good luck luck this season as well!
Excited to be back into the NBA

therealdealau · 10-30-12, 07:57 AM

Hey mate, tailed you quite a few times in the NRL and one of my regrets is not following and tailing from the beginning. Will definitely check in on your thread and follow along with your plays and will definitely be hitting you up for your thoughts on games throughout the week if you don't mind? I like your approach, NBA is definitely all about longevity and strong bank roll management. Good luck.

That Guy · 10-30-12, 08:09 AM

NBA Regular Season 2012 0-0

Oct 30
Using stats lightly in early plays and junking most pre season data for plays.
Only 1x stand out for today.

Play #1
Lakers vs Mavs UNDER 186 2x 1.95
Lakers were junk in the pre season with no wins and are yet to find their 'groove'. A lot of new guys and Kobe game time decision points to the UNDER. Mavs are a completely new side this year and don't see many points coming from this match with Marion taken care of by the Lakers big guns. Both sides could only crack 1x team OVER in all the pre season matches.. worthless now but an indication that both teams are still finding their place. Should see a total around 174.
Rolling 2x UNDER 186 at 1.95. GL

That Guy · 10-30-12, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Hey mate, tailed you quite a few times in the NRL and one of my regrets is not following and tailing from the beginning. Will definitely check in on your thread and follow along with your plays and will definitely be hitting you up for your thoughts on games throughout the week if you don't mind? I like your approach, NBA is definitely all about longevity and strong bank roll management. Good luck.

Completely agree. No probs.. Jump in anytime with thoughts or feedback.
Bank roll management is KEY. Especially early on when you gotta fight the urge to put plays on 5 different games. Keep in tight, build up the BR and work from there. GL mate

That Guy · 10-31-12, 12:22 AM

updated: NBA Regular Season 2012-13 0-1 -1.8units

Thanks for the 3pointer Gasol with 2seconds left when it really counted

Tough beat when the total looked good with 2mins to play... argh.. welcome to the NBA where nothing comes easy.
Back at it tomorrow....

That Guy · 10-31-12, 05:53 PM

NBA Regular Season 2012-13 0-1 -1.8units

Oct 31

Play #1
Raptors +2 vs Pacers 1x 1.95
Not much time for a writeup. Raptors are a changed side this year and should get the job done at home.
GL

That Guy · 10-31-12, 08:43 PM

updated: NBA Regular Season 2012-13 0-1-1 -1.8units

Push is better then a loss.. but.. wow.. what a way for the Raptors to lose that match.
Lying low on plays over the next week or so until we get some decent & useable team stats.
Will make the occasional play on heavy leans but for the moment looking after the bankroll is key. GL

prophetability · 11-01-12, 04:43 AM

Hey that guy, just subbed. Just asking if your from Australia, I saw you made like 43 units or something in the NRL this year which is ridiculous. I stay as far away from it as possible only took game 3 in origin haha. Will be closely following your NBA bets. Goodluck mate.

That Guy · 11-01-12, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by prophetability

Hey that guy, just subbed. Just asking if your from Australia, I saw you made like 43 units or something in the NRL this year which is ridiculous. I stay as far away from it as possible only took game 3 in origin haha. Will be closely following your NBA bets. Goodluck mate.

Hey mate.. Yes I'm from Australia. Had a good year on NRL and hoping to continue that with the NBA... and not get too excited in 1 week with crazy plays.
GL this year to you as well

That Guy · 11-01-12, 08:06 AM

NBA Regular Season 2012-13 0-1-1 -1.8units
Had the push, the loss and just need a win to complete the set.

Nov 1

Play #1
Spurs vs Thunder +2.5 1x 1.95
Looking at the stats on impact of BTB on team efficiency and pace - Spurs at this early in the season are going to be heavily affected by a BTB, even if it is at home. The last 2 BTB's the Spurs have lost and the Thunder should have way too much pace. Only danger is Spurs eFG% is very very good.. Thunder need to play lights out basketball and run Spurs off the court. Going by the pre-season they should be ready to fire.
The +2.5 pts pushed this game to a play for mine, after it opened at +2 OKC on my book. Locking in Thunder +2.5 at 1x 1.95.
GL

That Guy · 11-01-12, 11:09 PM

updated: NBA Regular Season 2012-13 1-1-1 -0.85units

Good to cash the first win of the season

Tough beat for OKC ML backers but this play was all about the .5 from the start... some good looking games on the board for tomorrow.

therealdealau · 11-01-12, 11:19 PM

Good cash mate, good to see both of us got great numbers on this game and won. I'm going to make a play on the Kings/Breakers Over. Keep it up!

That Guy · 11-01-12, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by therealdealau

Good cash mate, good to see both of us got great numbers on this game and won. I'm going to make a play on the Kings/Breakers Over. Keep it up!

Cheers mate

Hopefully Kings / Breakers drifts OVER as it should. GL

hjrozay · 11-02-12, 01:12 AM

TG, great to see you trying your hand at the NBA season.

Russ Westbrook was trying to be abit of a hero late.

Great cash today. I wish you the best of luck in the new year. I'll definitely be contributing to this thread.

That Guy · 11-02-12, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by hjrozay

TG, great to see you trying your hand at the NBA season.

Russ Westbrook was trying to be abit of a hero late.

Great cash today. I wish you the best of luck in the new year. I'll definitely be contributing to this thread.

Thanks mate.. hopefully can continue. Look forward to your thoughts!

That Guy · 11-02-12, 09:34 AM

NBA Regular Season 2012-13 1-1-1 -0.85units

Nov 2

Play #1
Knicks vs Heat UNDER 197.5 1x 1.95
Knicks will attempt to control this matchup with more defence then we've been used to in recent years under D'Antoni. Based on pre-season figures this game falls well short of 180pts.. as unreliable as they are this game should still fall well short.
Rolling with 1x on the UNDER. GL

Play #2
Trailblazers +9 vs Thunder 1x 1.95
We saw what a shambles Thunder can be after their match against the Spurs and offensively they're up against a great looking Trailblazers side. On a BTB the power rating for Trailblazers on my model is thru the roof - they are a much more controlled team then OKC and should be more organised offensively. +9 for Trailblazers is a gift and I'm rolling with 1x. GL

Play #3
Grizzlies +1.5 vs Warriors 1x 1.95
Teams are equal in team stats so far this year which is reflected by the books, with Warriors given the home edge as favourites. However, advance stats all point to the Grizzlies edging this one out. They have a much higher EFG% and a more structured defensive pattern. History also suggests they do well at Oracle Arena and to be getting +1.5 is a bonus.
Rolling 1x on Grizzlies +1.5. GL

One more possible play to come on LAL / LAC when totals come out....

4seasons · 11-02-12, 09:45 AM

RE: Play #2

On the B2B after the Mavs beat the Lakers and then went to Utah, the Jazz covered the what looked like a lot of points they were giving to the Mavs. When it seems like too many points are being given, usually it's not.

ThaBigG · 11-02-12, 03:15 PM

GL bro, I'm on the first two

That Guy · 11-02-12, 08:15 PM

Added:

Play #4
Clippers vs Lakers OVER 191 1x 1.95
Quick writeup.. have this game at a much higher total and we should see Lakers taking more chances in the paint for this game.
Rolling 1x OVER 191. GL

sym0 · 11-02-12, 09:51 PM

Tailed you on the Heat/Knicks under, nice hit bro. Keep it up!

aussieH · 11-02-12, 10:16 PM

Blazers must have stopped.

ultrasouth · 11-03-12, 12:15 AM

Well done TG on the overs in the lakers game.Got a bit close towards the end.

That Guy · 11-03-12, 12:19 AM

updated: NBA Regular Season 2012-13 4-1-2 1.00 units

Nov 2 Final 3-1

Good day on the books with NYC UNDER, LAL OVER and Memphis cashing

Grinding on with more plays tomorrow.. GL

jooshoowa · 11-03-12, 02:15 AM

Nice job bro!

That Guy · 11-03-12, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by sym0

Tailed you on the Heat/Knicks under, nice hit bro. Keep it up!

Originally posted by jooshoowa

Nice job bro!

That Guy · 11-03-12, 10:14 AM

NBA Regular Season 2012/13 4-1-2 1.00 units

Play #1
Jazz vs Spurs UNDER 200 1x 1.95
Stats are way off for this match up. Either the books are correctly identifying this as a break out game or we're getting a total that is a little too hot.. Hopefully the latter is true because it looks like we get a total of 180-190 for this match based on team ppg and points averages based on offensive pace. Both sides should look to control the defensive play and slow each other down - Spurs & Jazz averaging 90pts for the opposition avg ppg.
Have this total at 188 which makes it a 1x play on the UNDER 200. GL

Play #2
Nets vs Raptors UNDER 195.5 1x 1.95
We've got two well rested sides that should play a similar style of game that doesn't involve lights out basketball. Nets had an extremely low pre-season total that favours the UNDER and Raptors will be looking to tighten their defensive play after a disastrous 4th qtr against the Pacers. The total of 195.5 seems a little too high for two sides that are fresh but yet don't have a history of big totals.
Rolling with 1x UNDER 195.5 at 1.95. GL

Play #3
Hornets vs Bulls OVER 184 1x 1.95
Books seems to have disregarded the high totals for the Bulls so far this season and put it down to being abnormally 'above average'. However, most people believe it's a shift to a more aggressive style of offensive play for the Bulls. Stats seem to support this theory as totals are up overall and the focus on offense is obvious in play on court. Based on the model this game hits well over 184, on normal occasions this would be a 2x play but because it's early days I'm sticking with a 1x on the OVER 184 at 1.95. GL

That Guy · 11-03-12, 10:52 PM

updated: NBA Regular Season 2012/13 4-1-5 -2.00 units

Well that was painful... offense is the flavour of the day.
Almost every side playing lights out basketball today except the Bulls who never turned up.
Laying off multiple plays until teams have played 3-4 games each this season... model data way too vulnerable at this stage in the season. Apologies to anyone who tailed today - bad call on the Raptors / Brooklyn game in particular.
The slow grind for the NBA season continues tomorrow. GL

therealdealau · 11-03-12, 11:47 PM

Unlucky pal, surprised the Nets offence put up that many points. Good luck tomorrow.

hjrozay · 11-04-12, 12:29 AM

Tough losses today TG, but the worst of the bunch was the pathetic effort by the Chicago Bulls on offense today - horrible. I thought that was the right play also considering from last year's stats Chicago played up tempo without D.Rose but the B2B, let down and effort factor and maybe no C.J Watson just didnt ever get Chicago going even though it was on pace at half time.

You'll get those Units back.

Onto the next one.

sando · 11-04-12, 02:00 AM

Good luck in the NBA mate, as an NRL nut I was very impressed with your knowledge of the sport. You are obviously an aussie?

That Guy · 11-04-12, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by sando

Good luck in the NBA mate, as an NRL nut I was very impressed with your knowledge of the sport. You are obviously an aussie?

Cheers mate.. yep I'm an Aussie.
Looking forward to NRL next year.. hopefully can make a go of NBA leading into the new season.
Gl to you as well

aussieH · 11-04-12, 03:00 AM

Just a bad day today. Cheers