Thatguy's NBA Plays

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 46-35-2 +6.65 units

26 Nov

Play #1
Pistons vs Blazers OVER 192 1x 1.95
No matter which stats you look at this points to an OVER. Blazers are 3rd for giving up the most points in the NBA and will give the Pistons a look at the basket more then enough times. Pistons on the other hand will go shot crazy and give up / put away as many baskets as they can manage. All the numbers point to a loose / scrappy game of basketball for this one with easy points. Have this at 197 on the model and rolling 1x OVER at 1.95. GL

Play #2
Thunder vs Bobcats UNDER 201 1x 1.95
Bobcats are not the team they were at the start of the season, they've started pulling back the points and improving the 'D'. For a team that avgs only 90 ppg and let's in only 90 ppg - we're getting a good number for this match up. Sure, the Thunder will speed things up but Bobcat's stats against fast paced sides are pretty solid - holding MEM / DAL to well under 200.. teams will similar stats to the Thunder. Have this at 196 on the model and hitting the UNDER 1x 1.95. GL

Play #3
Nuggets vs Jazz UNDER 200.5 1x 1.95
Last time these sides met the pace was crazy and the total only hit 188. Most of the fast transition was driven by the Nuggets and today we get them coming off the BTB. Would suggest pace might be slightly slower and we've got a well rested Jazz side ready to take control. In games where the Jazz win the total is considerably lower then the average. This looks the goods for an UNDER play and model has it at 193. Rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

[h3da]

NBA Regular Season 46-35-2 +6.65 units

26 Nov

Play #1
Pistons vs Blazers OVER 192 1x 1.95
No matter which stats you look at this points to an OVER. Blazers are 3rd for giving up the most points in the NBA and will give the Pistons a look at the basket more then enough times. Pistons on the other hand will go shot crazy and give up / put away as many baskets as they can manage. All the numbers point to a loose / scrappy game of basketball for this one with easy points. Have this at 197 on the model and rolling 1x OVER at 1.95. GL

Play #2
Thunder vs Bobcats UNDER 201 1x 1.95
Bobcats are not the team they were at the start of the season, they've started pulling back the points and improving the 'D'. For a team that avgs only 90 ppg and let's in only 90 ppg - we're getting a good number for this match up. Sure, the Thunder will speed things up but Bobcat's stats against fast paced sides are pretty solid - holding MEM / DAL to well under 200.. teams will similar stats to the Thunder. Have this at 196 on the model and hitting the UNDER 1x 1.95. GL

Play #3
Nuggets vs Jazz UNDER 200.5 1x 1.95
Last time these sides met the pace was crazy and the total only hit 188. Most of the fast transition was driven by the Nuggets and today we get them coming off the BTB. Would suggest pace might be slightly slower and we've got a well rested Jazz side ready to take control. In games where the Jazz win the total is considerably lower then the average. This looks the goods for an UNDER play and model has it at 193. Rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

Thunder are playing bobcats not bulls.. nvm you changed it

[That Guy]

Was a typo on my behalf - had Bulls on my mind but looking at Bobcats stats & previous games.

[h3da]

Hey this is probably off topic... Nrl broncos vses manly... Why is manly dog?

[That Guy]

Hey this is probably off topic... Nrl broncos vses manly... Why is manly dog?

Probably because it's a Brisbane home game and they'll get a massive crowd for Round 1. If that wasn't the case you'd get even lines and/or Manly favs in Sydney.
Can't wait till the NRL. Pity it's 3 months away still!

[hjrozay]

NBA Regular Season 46-35-2 +6.65 units

26 Nov

Play #1
Pistons vs Blazers OVER 192 1x 1.95
No matter which stats you look at this points to an OVER. Blazers are 3rd for giving up the most points in the NBA and will give the Pistons a look at the basket more then enough times. Pistons on the other hand will go shot crazy and give up / put away as many baskets as they can manage. All the numbers point to a loose / scrappy game of basketball for this one with easy points. Have this at 197 on the model and rolling 1x OVER at 1.95. GL

Play #2
Thunder vs Bobcats UNDER 201 1x 1.95
Bobcats are not the team they were at the start of the season, they've started pulling back the points and improving the 'D'. For a team that avgs only 90 ppg and let's in only 90 ppg - we're getting a good number for this match up. Sure, the Thunder will speed things up but Bobcat's stats against fast paced sides are pretty solid - holding MEM / DAL to well under 200.. teams will similar stats to the Thunder. Have this at 196 on the model and hitting the UNDER 1x 1.95. GL

Play #3
Nuggets vs Jazz UNDER 200.5 1x 1.95
Last time these sides met the pace was crazy and the total only hit 188. Most of the fast transition was driven by the Nuggets and today we get them coming off the BTB. Would suggest pace might be slightly slower and we've got a well rested Jazz side ready to take control. In games where the Jazz win the total is considerably lower then the average. This looks the goods for an UNDER play and model has it at 193. Rolling 1x UNDER at 1.95. GL

With you on all three. Good Luck TG and everyone else today.

[MrXYZ]

Thinking of rolling with the Portland/Detroit total as well - my model has it at 195. The only concern is the Pistons could go scoreless for a stretch and kill the over.

Good luck today TG.

[MrXYZ]

I went with the Blazers/Pistons total for 10 unit play!

ORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ DETROIT PISTONS - (TOTAL GAME SCORE) OVER (STAKE W $1,000.00)

27/11/2012 9:40:50 AM

WIN

RESULT
$910.00

Bet Number:179935815
Status:Win
Win / Place:No
Points:192.5
Price To Win:$1.91

Stake Win:$1,000.00
Stake Place:-
Payout Win:$1,910.00
Payout Place:-



Thanks TG!

[That Guy]

I went with the Blazers/Pistons total for 10 unit play!

ORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ DETROIT PISTONS - (TOTAL GAME SCORE) OVER (STAKE W $1,000.00)

27/11/2012 9:40:50 AM

WIN

RESULT
$910.00

Bet Number:179935815
Status:Win
Win / Place:No
Points:192.5
Price To Win:$1.91

Stake Win:$1,000.00
Stake Place:-
Payout Win:$1,910.00
Payout Place:-



Thanks TG!

Excellent
Nice little OVER to start the night

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Keep it up dude, solid tipping.

Hey this is probably off topic... Nrl broncos vses manly... Why is manly dog?

Probably because it's a Brisbane home game and they'll get a massive crowd for Round 1. If that wasn't the case you'd get even lines and/or Manly favs in Sydney.
Can't wait till the NRL. Pity it's 3 months away still!

Broncos have signed Scott Prince for 2013, which should help them in their halves as they struggled there last year, especially a 5/8th.

Manly have lost quite a few players for next year and brought in a fair few too. Combinations will take time to build.

You would struggle to find a Friday night game played at Suncorp where the Broncos aren't favoured.

[hjrozay]

I went with the Blazers/Pistons total for 10 unit play!

ORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS @ DETROIT PISTONS - (TOTAL GAME SCORE) OVER (STAKE W $1,000.00)

27/11/2012 9:40:50 AM

WIN

RESULT
$910.00

Bet Number:179935815
Status:Win
Win / Place:No
Points:192.5
Price To Win:$1.91

Stake Win:$1,000.00
Stake Place:-
Payout Win:$1,910.00
Payout Place:-



Thanks TG!

Monster hit. That was an easy cover. Would of felt great.

[shimeon40]

was that a 3 out of 3 win?...thats excellent if it was

[MrXYZ]

Monster hit. That was an easy cover. Would of felt great.

It was amazing to cash that one. Stressful but worth it when the big payday was secured with 2 minutes to spare in the game. It set me up for the Xmas holidays. I won't go that big again for a while. It's an incredible high and easy to see why it can get addictive.

[shimeon40]

2 from 3..still very good

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 48-36-2 +7.55 units
Nov 26 2-1

Going +units is always a good day.. Unfortunate Nuggets / Jazz didn't cash and give us a clean sweep and 3 unit day.. but can't complain.
Looking at some plays for today and back very soon.

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 48-36-2 +7.55 units
Nov 27

Play #1
Kings vs Timberwolves UNDER 196.5 1x 1.95
We'd need some serious variance for this to hit the OVER and gotta take this for a play at the current line. Both teams average only 92ppg and 94ppg. Effective pace is way down and has been trending down the last few games. Have the total at only 187 based on pace which gives us 9points to play with.. Total on the model is also 188 - so, some pretty solid figures that all point to a score in the high 180's. Only danger is a loose game could kill this and SAC have been putting up high scores recently (given however, that 2 of past 3 games have been against UTH who have one of the highest pace figures in the NBA).
Total on the model is 188 and rolling 1x on this play. Would normally be a 2x play but holding off given SAC have been playing lights out basketball the last few games. 1x UNDER 196.5 at 1.95. GL

Play #2
Raptors vs Rockets UNDER 201.5 1x 1.95
Raptors have been shocking offensively and will need to play a smart game to win this one. Bargnani has been putting up bricks the last few games and without Fields they've also lacked some serious fire power. Expecting a Rockets blow out and Raptors to try some serious D - they've been averaging only 96ppg against which is pretty good. Have the total at 196 and rolling 1x UNDER 201.5 at 1.95. GL

[qwe123]

Which bookie are you betting at TG?

TAB is rubbish for both lines and odds, and the best I can get at bet365 is 1.9, with half a point hook the wrong way.

[aussieH]

Sports bet has the same lines at 1.92 at the moment

[qwe123]

Thanks, maybe it'll be worth my while to cash out at TAB and go to Sportsbet.

[hjrozay]

Thanks TG for your picks today hopefully its another positive day.

GL everyone.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Thanks, maybe it'll be worth my while to cash out at TAB and go to Sportsbet.

Qwe, definitely worth it - TAB takes roughly double the commission than the others take.

Most bookies now offer in the $1.90 to $1.93 range for the pick..... TAB is still charging $1.87.

I find Sportingbet and Centrebet always move together in pricing - very rarely do these two have discrepancies.
Sportsbet is all over the shop - they offer $1.92 lines and their lines can be a couple of points up or down.
TAB is good for playing pick the margins and for comparisons - they don't change their lines, just adjust their price so you can get good value sometimes.

I have accounts with Sportingbet, Centrebet, Sportsbet, TAB and Bwin.

If you are interested in joining up with any of them, PM me your details and i'll send you a friend referral - Sporstbet is offering a refer a friend special, you get up to $150 in free bets with them for signing up and depositing funds.

Cheers mate

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Rockets game is now out to 204 on Sportingbet.

[mikeyplata]

What do you think about Raptors vs Rockets UNDER 103.5 @ the half?

[h3da]

http://www.horseracinginfo.com.au/free-bets.htm

Look at these before signing up

[sando]

Qwe, definitely worth it - TAB takes roughly double the commission than the others take.

Most bookies now offer in the $1.90 to $1.93 range for the pick..... TAB is still charging $1.87.

I find Sportingbet and Centrebet always move together in pricing - very rarely do these two have discrepancies.
Sportsbet is all over the shop - they offer $1.92 lines and their lines can be a couple of points up or down.
TAB is good for playing pick the margins and for comparisons - they don't change their lines, just adjust their price so you can get good value sometimes.

I have accounts with Sportingbet, Centrebet, Sportsbet, TAB and Bwin.

If you are interested in joining up with any of them, PM me your details and i'll send you a friend referral - Sporstbet is offering a refer a friend special, you get up to $150 in free bets with them for signing up and depositing funds.

Cheers mate

That's because Sportingbet & Centrebet are both owned by the same company, Paddy from memory? Same as IAS & Sportsbet are identical, you will not find a single line where they differ in price. Also Luxbet is owned by TAB.

Good luck today mr. Gold - picks look solid as always.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

That's because Sportingbet & Centrebet are both owned by the same company, Paddy from memory? Same as IAS & Sportsbet are identical, you will not find a single line where they differ in price. Also Luxbet is owned by TAB.

Good luck today mr. Gold - picks look solid as always.

Kafataris sold out? Interesting.

http://www.australiangambling.com.au/gambling-news/sportingbet-acquire-centrebet-australia-for-183million/5442/

Paddy owns Sportsbet and IASBET.

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 49-37-2 +7.50 units
Nov 27 1-1

Evens for the day. Never trust the Raptors! Seems like the curse team at the moment.. whenever you think you've got them sussed out it turns out to bite you in the a$$.
Anyway.. great to cash MIN / SAC - made it a 2x play late in the day but was away from the net and couldn't post unfortunately (no mobile coverage here in US for me).
More plays tomorrow.. GL

[therealdealau]

Hey mate haven't checked in your thread for a couple days, apologizes been quite busy. Looks like you have been piecing together some nice days, keep it going man you are doing nicely.

[aussieH]

Thanks for posting whilst travelling.

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 49-37-2 +7.50 units
Nov 28

Sorry guys.. no time for writeups today. Traveling thru NY State and gotta get an early start.
Surprisingly not that many plays for today.. numbers seem very very sharp and can't force them. GL!

Play #1
Magic vs Spurs UNDER 198 1x 1.95

Play #2
Hawks vs Bobcats UNDER 194 1x 1.95

Play #3
Celtics vs Nets OVER 189.5 1x 1.95

[freshguy222]

got a little unlucky on the spurs under, unfortunately tailed you on the nets over and not sando on the under, because you posted earlier, but that will even out i guess longterm. onto the next day if you even have anything, only 2games

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 50-39-2 +6.45 units
Nov 28 1-2

Variance strikes.. 1 pt was all that stood between making 1 unit or losing it. Spurs / Hornets got hot in the last few mins and killed a positive night.
Anyway.. back to internet connection in the US and looking at plays for tonight now (if any).

[d3viantone]

Thoughts on heat? Thinking over >201 game cause of the rested players.

[That Guy]

NBA Regular Season 50-39-2 +6.45 units

Play #1
Nuggets vs Warriors UNDER 199.5 2x 1.95
Late play.. apologies for lateness.. model at 192 for this one

[That Guy]

updated: NBA Regular Season 50-40-2 +4.45 units

Ouch. Apologies for the bad Spurs play last night - never looked like cashing & can't blame variance for that!
Looking at a few big plays for tonight. Back soon.