Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**shimeon40** · 12-20-12, 04:42 AM

ok makinithappen...was just a suggestion..we all do things differently here...

**Arthur-from-LV** · 12-20-12, 04:58 AM

Makinhappen just made it happen for more garbage for us all to dispose off, but more comedy is always needed I guess.

" You need to be "lucky" to not be "unlucky" in basketball IMO. Over a distance, the talent/skill of a person with a good read on basketball should have a positive win:loss ratio (above 65%) and have made a reasonable profit.... Sando has done that."

That one was the best.... just pure genius, and very insightful

" My point is there are somany turn of events to cater for in the final quarter of NBA matches which ultimately boil down to one thing, luck."

I got my popcorn ready for this melodrama....a bit less entertaining the one above.. 1 thumb up.

SMH once again

**MakinItHappen** · 12-20-12, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by Arthur-from-LV

Makinhappen just made it happen for more garbage for us all to dispose off, but more comedy is always needed I guess.

" You need to be "lucky" to not be "unlucky" in basketball IMO. Over a distance, the talent/skill of a person with a good read on basketball should have a positive win:loss ratio (above 65%) and have made a reasonable profit.... Sando has done that."

That one was the best.... just pure genius, and very insightful

" My point is there are somany turn of events to cater for in the final quarter of NBA matches which ultimately boil down to one thing, luck."

I got my popcorn ready for this melodrama....a bit less entertaining the one above.. 1 thumb up.

SMH once again

Is that honestly the best you could come up with King Arthur? What part of this post actually involved you engaging with any points I made?

In a nutshell and broken down for the plain penetrating head of here, King Arthur:

For worthwhile profit gains in a sport such as basketball there is pretty much no point @ all tailing a tipster if you are going to do so "selectively". Due to the nature of basketball it is incredibly easy to go on a "bad beat" run and the laws of probability suggest it will always happen, inviteably. Whether it's this week, next week, or the week after that, it will always happen. You couldn't say the same about the form of a "good" tipster in many other sports with as much confidence. This means you could tail the best basketball tipster @ an "inopportune time" and leave yourself burnt.

For me, it's either you are in, or you are out.

Originally posted by ShotgunRua

Thanks for the tips Sando, always appreciate your hard work.

I can understand some people becoming frustrated with this rough patch if they are using a large proportion of their bankroll every day. 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll, I made 14 units betting on soccer yesterday, as long as Sando finishes this season in positive units and I tail everything I will be happy.

It comes as no suprise that the most profitable people from Sando's followers are people like this guy.

PS and another thing lol: No one "disposed" off me you muppet, they simply made points in how they disagreed with the point I had made. I didn't respond because I felt they completely missed the bigger picture of what I was saying and as a result went on a pedantic ramble about how you cannot ever "tell exactly how a set of player's mental/emotional state is before a match".

So keep SMHing King Arthur.

**vancityswag** · 12-20-12, 05:40 AM

Ex.

Donk bettor likes hawks.

Sando likes hawks kings clips bulls.

Donk bettor says ok ill "tail" sando on hawks.

I agree with makinit that you can't be selective with tailing but also if you are following a select group of cappers, it may be profitable to compile their picks and bet on games with multiple votes.

**vancityswag** · 12-20-12, 05:42 AM

Also someone should figure out the stats of say sando, goat, trd and figue out if there are any trends. How each capper does after b2b losses. Which capper does good on which days. Would be interesting to find some tailing autoplays. Lol

**shinu** · 12-20-12, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by shinu

Hey sando!
What do u think about my picks:
Raptors ML
GSW ML
Thunder -6,5
Pacers -3,5

3-1 for me... Damn GSW.. :/

**MakinItHappen** · 12-20-12, 05:51 AM

Originally posted by vancityswag

Also someone should figure out the stats of say sando, goat, trd and figue out if there are any trends. How each capper does after b2b losses. Which capper does good on which days. Would be interesting to find some tailing autoplays. Lol

I liked your previous post, but this one I jus don't get.

What's there to suggest Sando is more likely to visualise a result happening after back to back victories? Every match is separate, these are all isolated individually. The only possible "auto-play" system you could deploy would be back to back victories on matches involving particular teams.

For me there may be a current trend of auto-plays on Sando's picks. Sando tends to do consistently well on the "big televised matches"

Reminiscent of me in tennis.

**Arthur-from-LV** · 12-20-12, 06:54 AM

I'll try to make this short.. being a "selective tailer" is completely a personal choice. I could careless on how you to about tailing someone else's sport picks. I do wonder how these contributors of sports picks come up with how many units to bet on a particular play, be it tennis basketball, etc...

When I look for edges in baseball, the only selective approach I use is when my simulator outcome disagrees with the sportsbookies lines. For example, If the money line I come up with my simulator is off by 5% then that yields a 1 unit bet, 8% difference yields a 2 unit bet, 10% + yields a 3 unit bet on that play. For overs and unders i still use the simualtors outcomes, but the approach is a little different because have to account for weather and the umpires. I don't use my GUT FEEL in order to be selective. I simulate all the games for that day and make as many plays as I possibly can. I DO NOT follow trends. If I used my feelings I would get burned in the long run, no matter how much I watched baseball in my lifetime. The simulator kicks my ass every single time VS. My personal picks(gut feeling) in the long run. Bottom line is this, I try to play as many games as I possibly can whenever the simulator warrants a bet.

Also, I don't care how I am doing after one day, 1 week, 1 month. I've had bad weeks months and great weeks and months, this is all just semantics. Its all about the long haul, good money management, not deviating from the system (unless you come to find out your system sucks HUGE balls), etc..... every bettor should know this shit. The only adjustments I do make include injured players, weather, or updating the players forecasted stats in the middle of the season, because the sample size is somewhat stable at that point. Sometimes I make them sooner. It all just depends.

All in all, I don't have a horse in this race. Whatever floats your boat, be it Sandos picks or your gut feeling (wich are downright less then useless) or daily or weekly trends (just as bad), have at it. I hope you prove me wrong and make a killing. Good luck. So much for making this short and sweet.

**MTM** · 12-20-12, 07:30 AM

To be updated

**Celtics08** · 12-20-12, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by celtics08

boston double digits today. Good luck sando!!

cascais!

**elPkay** · 12-20-12, 08:42 AM

Had the 3 "bigger" games in an additional 3-Team Parlay for 0,5u and the Raptors + Pacers did their job but the bobcats couldn't do it..
Too bad, would've been 5 units if they just played better.

I didn't see the whole game but when I saw a few possesions and turnovers I thought it looked like playing ball at school. Shot clock ran out so many times, they often just didn't know what to do with the ball, even handled it like a bomb lol.

Thanks for the plays Sando, especially putting in all the work after a total chaos day, that's the grind.
I was pretty confident about the bobcats cover, too. +9 should've been enough for charlotte.

Looking forward to todays picks

**SMJ** · 12-20-12, 09:24 AM

Where can I get a simulator?

Originally posted by Arthur-from-LV

I'll try to make this short.. being a "selective tailer" is completely a personal choice. I could careless on how you to about tailing someone else's sport picks. I do wonder how these contributors of sports picks come up with how many units to bet on a particular play, be it tennis basketball, etc...

When I look for edges in baseball, the only selective approach I use is when my simulator outcome disagrees with the sportsbookies lines. For example, If the money line I come up with my simulator is off by 5% then that yields a 1 unit bet, 8% difference yields a 2 unit bet, 10% + yields a 3 unit bet on that play. For overs and unders i still use the simualtors outcomes, but the approach is a little different because have to account for weather and the umpires. I don't use my GUT FEEL in order to be selective. I simulate all the games for that day and make as many plays as I possibly can. I DO NOT follow trends. If I used my feelings I would get burned in the long run, no matter how much I watched baseball in my lifetime. The simulator kicks my ass every single time VS. My personal picks(gut feeling) in the long run. Bottom line is this, I try to play as many games as I possibly can whenever the simulator warrants a bet.

Also, I don't care how I am doing after one day, 1 week, 1 month. I've had bad weeks months and great weeks and months, this is all just semantics. Its all about the long haul, good money management, not deviating from the system (unless you come to find out your system sucks HUGE balls), etc..... every bettor should know this shit. The only adjustments I do make include injured players, weather, or updating the players forecasted stats in the middle of the season, because the sample size is somewhat stable at that point. Sometimes I make them sooner. It all just depends.

All in all, I don't have a horse in this race. Whatever floats your boat, be it Sandos picks or your gut feeling (wich are downright less then useless) or daily or weekly trends (just as bad), have at it. I hope you prove me wrong and make a killing. Good luck. So much for making this short and sweet.

**dioforce** · 12-20-12, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by ShotgunRua

Thanks for the tips Sando, always appreciate your hard work.

I can understand some people becoming frustrated with this rough patch if they are using a large proportion of their bankroll every day. 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll, I made 14 units betting on soccer yesterday, as long as Sando finishes this season in positive units and I tail everything I will be happy.

Let me get at them soccer picks.

**italianbandit** · 12-20-12, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by SMJ

Where can I get a simulator?

Radio shack has them.

**Arthur-from-LV** · 12-20-12, 11:23 AM

SMJ, the simulator I use is called Strategic-Baseball-Simulator, or SBS simulator it was created by David Schmidt . You can download from the web for free. You can also purchase one called Diamond Mind, I haven't used that one yet, because I got comfortable with SBS, and did not want to pay for Diamond Mind. Once you download SBS you gotta know how to use it properly. Ìf you are that interested you can pm me and I'll give you additonal steps you need to take to start using it to handicap baseball. Anyway out of respect for this thread wich is only about Tennis, Basketball, and MMA picks, I will not mention anything else about my simulator or baseball. I will stick to just posting basketball picks. Good luck.

Lol.. people get so easily irrated on here thanks for putting me on the ignore list TC, I will hear less and less of you now as well. I like that option, forgot all about it.

**Joab101** · 12-20-12, 11:49 AM

Been away for two days. My, my what happend to my favorite thread? Lets get back talking nba, tennis and mma and score some units.

Keep it up Sando, really appreciate your hard work and effort mate

**TC Woods** · 12-20-12, 12:08 PM

Thank God for the ignore list function.... added 3 more clowns that provide absolutely no value. Now I don't have to deal with the clutter and I can read about NBA wagering. Keep up the great work Sando.

**dmitean** · 12-20-12, 01:00 PM

I like the the Thunder tonight and Over in Minny. Ibaka can do a decent job on Love, but can't see who can check Westbrook on Wolves roster. Rubio? Shved? Ridnour? When Westbrook is good, Thunder are a very difficult team to beat.
I can see this one as crazy pace game, with both teams looking to run and Wolves scoring around 105 and Thunder 110+ points.
Good luck tonight Sando!

**shimeon40** · 12-20-12, 02:32 PM

TC Woods is a straight up dikkhead..shouldn't bother him this post as he has most on his ignore list anyway..what a twat he must be..dumb ass clown contributes jackshit to picking a winner on this forum...TC Woods..

if u can hear me...

**tblues2005** · 12-20-12, 03:56 PM

[QUOTE=TC Woods;17194850]Thank God for the ignore list function.... added 3 more clowns that provide absolutely no value. Now I don't have to deal with the clutter and I can read about NBA wagering. Keep up the great work Sando.

. Wow.

**sando** · 12-20-12, 04:07 PM

NBA Thursday

Miami @ Dallas
Heat -5 (-113 Pinnacle) 2x
*Most lines -5.5 now, would recommend buying the hook or PYOL down to -5 at no worse than -118 odds.

**Will update record from last 2 days now.

**tblues2005** · 12-20-12, 04:10 PM

Thanks Sando!

**Byrone09** · 12-20-12, 04:19 PM

Thanks! Bought down to -5 -118. I'm guessing there's a lot of action on OKC tonight?

**grim259** · 12-20-12, 04:22 PM

Damn bovada moved to -6. Guess I'll lay off that one for today.

**Celtics08** · 12-20-12, 04:30 PM

Miami double digits today, correct bet Sando!!!!

**sando** · 12-20-12, 04:44 PM

Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

1-4 Tuesday in the NBA -6.07 Units
0-4 ATS
1-0 Totals

3-2 Wednesday in the NBA +0.74 Units
2-2 ATS
1-0 Totals
1-0 Unofficial NBA prop bets (Cav's -2.5 H/T)

NBA YTD 119-91-8 (+34.26 Units) 56.7%

(NBA ATS/ML 88-66-5 YTD) 57.1%

(NBA totals 31-25-3 YTD) 55.4%

Unofficial NBA prop bets YTD 3-2

All time SBR Picks

Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MMA 5-0 (+22.21 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum

**ShotgunRua** · 12-20-12, 04:48 PM

With you every step of the way Sando, good luck!!

**thorny** · 12-20-12, 07:08 PM

OKC - 2.5 seems like a good shout, and total over 201

**thewhiteguy** · 12-20-12, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by sando

NBA Thursday

Miami @ Dallas
Heat -5 (-113 Pinnacle) 2x
*Most lines -5.5 now, would recommend buying the hook or PYOL down to -5 at no worse than -118 odds.

**Will update record from last 2 days now.

As always Sando thanks for all your hard work. Win or lose its truly appreciated by many people. Remember this old chinese proverb "Hatas gonna Hate!"

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-20-12, 11:40 PM

Phuck yeah

**Izza77** · 12-20-12, 11:42 PM

and all the tards are silent....nice win Sando

Originally posted by sando

NBA Thursday

Miami @ Dallas
Heat -5 (-113 Pinnacle) 2x
*Most lines -5.5 now, would recommend buying the hook or PYOL down to -5 at no worse than -118 odds.

**Will update record from last 2 days now.

**tblues2005** · 12-20-12, 11:54 PM

It's looking good for tonight.

Bad for the faders tonight.

Miami is winning by 20 right now and it looks good unless Dallas really makes a comeback.

Poor Diamo the fader losing units this week by betting against Sando!

**Celtics08** · 12-20-12, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by Celtics08

Miami double digits today, correct bet Sando!!!!

easy win

**Celtics08** · 12-21-12, 12:24 AM

Sando I need your opinion about Indianda -2,5, they play tomorrow at Cleveland

**sando** · 12-21-12, 12:24 AM

Long season. Stay focused. Keep grinding.

1-0 Today in the NBA +1.77 Units

NBA YTD 120-91-8 (+36.03 Units) 56.9%

(NBA ATS/ML 89-66-5 YTD) 57.4%

(NBA totals 31-25-3 YTD) 55.4%

Unofficial NBA prop bets YTD 3-2

All time SBR Picks

Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 28-24-1 (+2.27 Units)
MMA 5-0 (+22.21 Units)
MLB 4-1 (+9.49 Units) *See spreadsheet

**Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.