Good job on the knicks over. I'm always lucky on the over bets. Haha almost all of the games in the early season are going over. 
-
Comment -
Overall I've had two years of nice profits across multiple sports, mainly coming from AFL and NBA but I switch focus to various sports/leagues depending on the time of year. For example I hardly touch Rugby all year but then when ITM cup rolls around (after AFL and before NBA) I focus totally on Rugby for a couple of months. Same with tennis, I had been avoiding tennis all year as was so busy with the Aussie sports (AFL, NRL and netball), then started focusing on tennis again in late September (after AFL) and got on such a roll, that was what inspired me to start posting picks at SBR, although this is the first time I have ever posted picks for others on the internet but I have been sports betting for 15 years now. Actually started posting picks to share with my mates here in Adelaide and it just sort of grew from there. To be honest I actually had a loosing season last year in the NBA, although it was only a minor loss on the season and I was still hitting at around/over 55% just not employing a unit system and really quite poor money management as well. Plus got buried in the last few games of the finals as I went large on OKC.Last edited by sando; 11-26-12, 01:08 AM.Comment -
Been doing some early brain storming with my new NBA contact and found some very interesting lines for tommorows games. Gonna try and get some picks out within the next few hours as opposed to when I usually drop the picks (between 0500-0700 Adelaide time CST, 1330-1530 NY time).Comment -
I use SportsPunter.com mate, they are both accurate and quick. Usually smaller books like PartyBets and Bet-at-home will release very early NBA lines, which are usually no more than a point off what the big boys (Pinny, 5D, Bet365) release the lines at later on from my experience.
Early lines -
Spurs -7.5
Pistons -1
Bulls -5
Griz -12
OKC -12.5
Jazz -3.5
Clip's -11Last edited by sando; 11-26-12, 01:28 AM.Comment -
Another positive day!!!! Damn near a sweep brother...great job! I am going to have to find a way to repay you one of these days my man.Comment -
-
Geez, some people don't know how to read. As Sando has said (twice now), he wasn't posting his picks, but the lines that were coming out from the bookies.Comment -
Sick people do exist. Pay less attention to them.
Sando, hat all the way down. You really are something, nice and clever picks.. congratulations!
Hope you'll continue the rythm
Comment -
nice work sando....
trolls existing on this thread means youre doing your job correctlyComment -
Even if that were true, which it is not... Why would it matter? He's not betting -300 favorites on the ML. He's betting them on the spread which evens it out, hence the point of the spread.
If you're going to make comments, follow it up with logic, please ....Comment -
Nice picks sando!! Really appreciates your tips.Comment -
Just an FYI to everyone:
Over the last five or ten years, there has become a popular phenomenon called "trolling". It used to be something quite sophisticated that took place very subtly across divisive message boards and forums as a means of disinformation or propaganda direction. Now it's mainly used as a rationalization to pre-tween stoners posting bollocks. Nowadays "trolls", as they hope they'll be known by, merely post utter shit on message threads because they took a bongload and can't get laid. Their success is measured by how riled up people get. It's a meager achievement to be sure.
Regardless, if you are mindful to people who post things that are bitter and illogical, just ignore them. Thank you. Feel free to ignore me too. The less everyone says the better; it's Sando we're here to see.Comment -
This loser trolls in seers thread also, its almost comical with the b.s. he comes up . It'd be a nice feature if you could block certain members from even posting in your thread. Sando, I would just tale his jealousy as a complimentComment -
Look at daimos recent sbr posts... Whata negative, hater, useless troll that should clearly have his account taken away because he doesn nothing good for anyone in this community. Look at his language and demeanor. Eother hes 12 yrs old or has mental issues or his dad used to beat him as a child lol. And hes a horrible capper. Hes mad at guys like u sando bc hes broke and always loses. Keep up the good work!Comment -
NBA
Lots of games I like today, but nothing that I really like so gonna keep the units down on today's picks. Really liked the Clippers at -11 (opening line) to do the same thing to the Hornets that the Nug's did last night, however no longer interested at the current line of -12.5 as could see the Hornets bench possibly hustling late in the 4th against a big lead and stealing the back door cover. Was very tempted to play the Under in the Nets/Knicks game as we have two surprisingly good defences (Nets arguably leagues best) battling it out for NY supremacy but seeing as they have never played hard to get a gauge on the tempo this game will be played at. Also quite interested in Bucks and Wizards with the points but have missed the best lines on both games and don't normally like to play a side and total in the same game.
NY @ Brooklyn
Nets +1.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Without doubt "the game" of the year so far. Was meant to be the season opener but has probably worked out better as now we are in a position to see that both teams are quite good and at a similar level talent wise. For me this pick is all about match ups. I love scrutinising individual match ups in handicapping NBA and I quite like how the Nets match up with the Knickerbockers in this one.
As Schoomakie mentions home court advantage to the Nets is in doubt as the Knicks faithful will have no problems travelling to Brooklyn, however Nets 6-1 home record cannot be completely discounted. Their is always some value in the familiarity of your home dressing rooms, and knowing the building and the court and the subsequent positive mental state it tends to create in players. Their is no doubt that the Nets are aware that they are the underdogs in this one regardless of their being little actually separating them at the books, and I like this Nets team playing with that underdog mentality against their high profile neighbours. Ok matchups - Wallace could be the key here, he is an excellent defensive player and the ideal man to harras Carmello an make life difficult for him, they are roughly the same size and Wallace is no doubt every bit as physical and as strong as Carmello. Also Lopez's impressive mid range game should drag Chandler away from the Post possible creating more space for D-Will's penetration, of course if Chandler chooses to stay home on Lopez and patrol the Post then the big fella will probably be getting plenty of wide open looks from 15-18'. Felton will have his hands full with the bigger, stronger and equally as quick D-Will on both ends of the floor and Prigioni would likely be even worse off and Johnson will abuse Kidd in Iso-Joe mode if the Knicks allow that to happen, far more likely Brewer or JR Smith spending time on Johnson. Knicks with the deeper bench but it's more from 1-3 especially with Brooks not delivering off the bench for the Nets this year, however I would see a clear advantage to the Nets at 4-5, with Carmello playing 4 and some older guys on the bench, the Nets big men can definitely do some damage , and if it wasn't for Chandlers outstanding post defence I would generally expect the Knicks to get abused by the combo of Lopez, Humphries, Blatche and Evans. Reggie in particular loves the physical stuff and can bang with Chandler or Wallace and generally make life difficult for them (as is his style) if either starts heating up. Of course 'Sheed will no doubt try and bring Reggie to the perimeter to take away his ferocious offensive rebounding but I'm inclined to think the nets will just rotate and Reggie will stay I. The post doing what he does best. Knicks love to bomb threes and obviously have a clear advantage their however the Nets have plenty of capable three shooters themselves and unlike the Knicks will not struggle as much if their three's aren't dropping. Nets an excellent defensive team this year and I see them as a great match up against the Knicks high powered offence. For me Crash Wallace is the key and if he can keep Carmello quiet and cause his general disruption to the smooth NY offence I can see a nice victory to the Nets here in what is the beginning of a (hopefully) great rivalry.
Milwaukee @ Chicago
Bucks +4.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Decided to run with this anyway even though we missed the +5, mainly because Bulls only 3-3 at home this year with the winning margins being 6,6 and 7 points. Bulls playing low scoring grinding games (as usual). Bucks just lost at home to the Bulls recently in a game they were until late in the 4th so I expect them to be prepared today.
Portland @ Detroit
Pistons +1.5 (-113 Pinnacle) 1x
*Line opened at Pistons -1 and Blazers love has moved the line in our favor. Recommended buying the hook if you have to in case Detroit loses in a tight one although I expect them to win straight up here. Aussies that can't "buy hooks", you lads need to be opening Sportingbet accounts, they now have "pick your own line" for NBA and are the best of all Aussie books for NBA (I know I have accounts at every Australian book)
**Pistons play better Defence, they are tough at home, Portland with the worst bench in the NBA, LMA not 100% and whilst he is expected to play he clearly has a sore back and if he has to spend any time on Monroe tonight it will not be fun for him. Pistons to dominate in the post tonight.
NBA Totals
Chicago @ Milwaukee
Under 191.5 (-109 Pinnacle) 1.5x
Denver @ Utah
Under 200 (-107 Pinnacle) 1x
Denver will look to push the pace and Utah will look to slow the game, yet the Nug's are coming off the back2back and being a Utah home game I expect the Jazz to control the pace. These two traditional rivals always play each other hard. Have this total at 195-196.Last edited by sando; 11-26-12, 06:44 PM.Comment -
u guyz got the right idea...talk ABOUT these turds...the way adults talk about an annoying attention-whoring 10-year-old (ie. as a pest problem)
we now have a very minor infestation of two WTWDRAUATAK's (whiny twats with diaper rash and unfortunate access to a keyboard)...
the troll-eradication unit advises that no one interact directly with these oxygen-wasting-units, as that's a reward for their attention-craving efforts...feel free, however, to talk ABOUT these turds as you wish...just NOT TO the a-holes from which the keyboard crap was extrudedLast edited by fitguy67; 11-26-12, 02:38 PM.Comment -
Sando,
All 3 major online Aussie books (Sportingbet, Centrebet and Sportsbet) now offer Pick Your Own Line, although not until a few hours before tip-off.
However, is the juice they take for buying the point too much?Comment -
Not sure fitguy... don't have a Pinny account.Comment -
Thanks for the update mate. Have accounts with Centrebet and Sportsbet, even IAS which is just a Sportsbet clone, however when they all offer the standard -110 I prefer Sportingbet as they offer some nice player prop bets as well and I am a sucker for a good prop bet.
Buying the hook
First, you can buy off the half point for what will likely cost you $10 more per $100 that your trying to win. (Unless it's involving the number 3 in football). Second, a way to avoid the hook is to play at numerous online sportsbooks and make sure that you shop for the best line possible. Not all sportsbooks carry the same lines and you can often times find a half point different at a different online bookie.
You should constantly be looking for an edge when betting on sports and line shopping is one of the biggest edges you can have. It can in fact increase your winning percentage by 2-3% each year and that's a bundle of cash if your betting anything significant.
Note - If you were to buy the hook off of every game you bet, mathematically, it is a losing propositionLast edited by sando; 11-26-12, 04:53 PM.Comment -
I can take pistons at +1.0 for 1.90 odds or +1.5 for 1.83 odds, thoughts sando?Comment -
Sando,
I was hoping you wouldnt cap this game as I was planning on staying away from it
How much lean are you giving towards Home Field advantage on this one? As an Ex-Net season ticket holder I can tell you that the Nets never had HFA in the Meadowlands or the Prudential Center. The Knick fans came from all over. Keep in mind Knick fans have been in Brooklyn a long time and this is a very easy commute. Will not be suprised if the Nets have to play music during the game to drown out the NYK faithful.Comment -
NCAAB
I know very little about college basketball, however a friend of mine specialises in it and he assures me that Notre Dame will destroy Chicago State by 40 points tonight at home. The line is currently Notre Dame -31.5 at Pinny and Sportingbet and while the line seems massive for a basketball game I trust his judgement and I'm going to chuck 1 unit on the play. Just thought I'd share the info incase anyone else is interested, but please be aware this is not an official pick of mine, just sharing the love from someone who definitely knows the game.Comment -
Thanks Sando...I appreciate it.Comment -
Love NY mate, great city. Lived thier for two years and attended New Rochelle h/s. Not much put into home court as I understand what you are saying, although the Nets impressive 6-1 home record can't be completely dismissed. Anyway going to add analysis right now, give me 10.Sando,
I was hoping you wouldnt cap this game as I was planning on staying away from it
How much lean are you giving towards Home Field advantage on this one? As an Ex-Net season ticket holder I can tell you that the Nets never had HFA in the Meadowlands or the Prudential Center. The Knick fans came from all over. Keep in mind Knick fans have been in Brooklyn a long time and this is a very easy commute. Will not be suprised if the Nets have to play music during the game to drown out the NYK faithful.
Just take the +1 and save on the juice.Comment -
Like all your plays except Detroit +1' at home.
Detroit isn't that much better defensively. They only allow 1.5 points less per 100 possessions than Portland while on the flip side Portland averages 5 points more per possession than Detroit. They are doing this despite the 2nd hardest schedule in terms of SOS at the moment. The numbers though do become slightly more skewed in Detroit's favor when only analyzing home vs away efficiency but not enough games to quantify that yet.
I think that LMA plays today and that the two days off help him enough to be a factor tonight.
The 2.5 point line movement in the other direction certainly doesn't help your cause.
Good Luck budComment
Made an account to say thank you for posting these picks. Just curious, what were your stats from the last few years on the NBA?
scary, but thanks for your efforts and gl!
