Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**Eagles27** · 11-22-12, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by freshguy222

we could have easily gone 5-3 with the picks, knicks up 10 in 2nd quarter, heat under went into OT, Nets were up 12 after first quarter, pistons were up at half, nuggets should have lost though

In retrospect, banking on too many road teams that were coming off of back to backs. I had NY, Nets, Lakers, Sixers, who all lost and were coming off back to backs and playing on the road. Not a smart move on my part.

**ak57** · 11-22-12, 10:42 AM

ahhh it was not that bad just down like 5 or 6 units...watever...it was great bets...now let us take a night off and come back strong on fri

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 11-23-12, 03:53 AM

NRL draw released today.

Will start a thread soon for some input from all the Aussies on the forum.

Can't wait for the season to start.... March 7 - lock it in!

**gopolks** · 11-23-12, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by tim gerry mander

nrl draw released today.

Will start a thread soon for some input from all the aussies on the forum.

Can't wait for the season to start.... March 7 - lock it in!

go the warriors

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 11-23-12, 05:36 AM

Just over 3 months to go..... Let's make some cash boys!

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sports/2036816-tgms-nrl-spread-system-2013-a.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**sando** · 11-23-12, 06:53 AM

Ok so it's been a really bad 2 days, going 2-8 over the last two days and what a horrible result after our 10-0 run the previous 2 days. Despite our 2-6 result yesterday it actually could have easily been a 4-4 day with a positive unit gain however the Heat/Bucks game going to OT killed our under play and of course the big one was the 3x Knicks play choking away a game they dominated for 3 quarters, although some credit must also be given to the outstanding fight the Mav's showed to get back into and take over that game when it counted. I spent a lot of time analysing my picks post game seeing as the results were so poor and I can honestly say in hindsight that only the U195 in the SA v Boston game was a poor pick IMO. This is just not the same Boston team this year and their defence is nowhere near what is has been from recent seasons at this point in time. The Pistons +1.5 may seem like it was a dud pick, however the Pistons were leading at H/T and looking good and if it wasn't for their bizzare 3rd quarter collapse where they went 10 minutes without a single point in the middle of an Orlando 21-0 run...

So anyway I decided to take a break and try and re-focus after the elation of a 10-0 run followed by the devestation of the 2-8 run, all in the space of 4 days. I have not read any of the comments as I have no interest in Daimo and any others trolls that may be head-hunting me after the last couple of bad days. Instead, I have taken a break and re-focused and feel good about tomorrow's picks. There will be 6 ATS picks and probably no O/U picks unless I find something that seriously jumps out at me. For those that are wondering, my mental state is fine and I am more determined than ever to get things back on track and not ruin our great start to the season.

NBA

SA @ Indiana

Spurs -3.5 (-110 Pinnacle) 2.5x
*I expect this line to move against us and be -4 to -4.5 by game time.
** In this particular match up past stats are more relevant than usual as both these teams decided not to make any significant changes to their lists from last season and basically sat pat through the off season. The Spurs have won 10 in a row over the Pacers and while the Pacers are on a 2 game winning streak, the Wizards and Hornets are a fair way off the Spurs. Also the Spurs while not playing great their last 4 games, have won 4 road games I'm a row and looked deadly against the C's the other night shooting the lights out at 58% Speaking of lights out Paul George was on fire the other night sinking 9 threes at 69% and the Spurs would love to have Leonard to cover him although rumor is Leonard is not too far away and may suit up during this current SA road trip. The other George (Hill) is no doubt a capable defender but he will have his hands full against Parker whose confidence will be up after a great game against the C's. SA with a far deeper bench and you would expect they would be more than comfortable trading 3 pointers with Indiana if they chose to play as they did against the Hornets.

LA Lakers @ Memphis

Grizzlies -4.5 (-102 Pinnacle) 2x

I would never go as far as to say Kobe can be stopped, however if their is a better 1-2 punch to make life difficult for him than Allen and Conley, then I would love to know who they are. This Grizzlies team is a serious defensive unit with lock down perimeter defenders and big bodies in the lane. The match-up against a team with the offensive weapons the Lakers posses playing under coach D'antoni is in itself a fascinating one. The Lakers were poor against the Kings. They seemed un-interested and their D was quite ordinary. While some may think this is a great spot for the Lakers to bounce back with a big road win over a high profile team, let's not forget the Griz are also coming off a loss and like most teams will have no problems getting up when the Lake Show comes to town plus they have had three days to rest and prepare. Also the Lakers have played 3 away games against western conference opponents and have not yet won on the road. After such a great start to the season surely the Griz will be desperate not to drop 2 straight home games and as far as the -4.5 points it should be noted that Mempis has crushed similar high profile teams Knicks, OKC & the Heat recently and by an average winning margin of 14 points.
OKC @ Boston

Thunder -3 (-111 Pinnacle) 2x

NO @ Phoenix

Suns -4 (-110 Pinnacle) 1.5x

LA Clippers @ Brooklyn

Nets +3 (-109 Sportingbet) 1.5x

Atlanta @ Charlotte

Bobcats +3.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1x

__________________________________

2-6 yesterday in the NBA -6.68 Units

NBA YTD 57-33-6 (+29.19 Units) 63.3%

(NBA ATS/ML 43-23-4 YTD) 65.1%

(NBA totals 14-10-2 YTD) 58.3%

Tennis YTD 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units) 55.4%

***Analysis to follow for all picks

**therealdealau** · 11-23-12, 07:15 AM

uhoh, against each other on every game hopefully we split :P good luck pal

**MrXYZ** · 11-23-12, 07:35 AM

Good luck Sando. I'm rolling with Grizzlies with you but gonna wait till game time - Laker money should move it to -4.0.

**Tennispro** · 11-23-12, 07:48 AM

Spurs -3.5 biggest game of the year for me too got 1.5 k on it gl

**Bostongambler** · 11-23-12, 08:02 AM

gl Sal

**fergie's balls** · 11-23-12, 08:08 AM

Oh no, Capriati?

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 11-23-12, 08:23 AM

Moving lines again Sando

**Catchn_Picks** · 11-23-12, 09:04 AM

Yes, lines are moving...especially the favs...get em while their hot!

**southmadejd** · 11-23-12, 11:07 AM

Good Luck today Sando....and don't worry, you never have to explain your mind state. Nothing you have done in this thread has ever lead anybody to think you have ever gone on tilt or anything like that. If you ask me, you seem as though you are one of the most professional cappers on this site.

**16johnnymac** · 11-23-12, 11:15 AM

I really like your Spurs play I was going to lock it in yesterday @ -3 1/2 now up to -5. Go Spurs so I bought a few points lol

Result >>>Money in the BANK chaChing!!!

**Goat Milk** · 11-23-12, 12:12 PM

wow lots of plays tonight. gl buddy writeups look good.

only thing I'd argue with is Connoly won't guard Bryant at all tonight. Bryant will abuse Connoly in the post. Hollins likely keeps Allen on him for as long as possible and brings in Pondexter off the bench at times and perhaps Rudy Gay during moments if both those two prove ineffective.

**radostin.dimi** · 11-23-12, 12:29 PM

Lets cash it

**sando** · 11-23-12, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

wow lots of plays tonight. gl buddy writeups look good.

only thing I'd argue with is Connoly won't guard Bryant at all tonight. Bryant will abuse Connoly in the post. Hollins likely keeps Allen on him for as long as possible and brings in Pondexter off the bench at times and perhaps Rudy Gay during moments if both those two prove ineffective.

Yeah good point mate, I was thinking Conley might spend some time on Kobe as he is handling the ball so much with Nash out, but your right Kobe is too smart, he'll just drag Conley into the Post where he must have 4-5" on him and a few lbs too. Allen in the past has had success against Kobe however, that one will be a great match-up as always.

**Eagles27** · 11-23-12, 04:55 PM

Going against you on one of these (I like the clippers against the Nets who are now playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after traveling 3000 miles). So I am going with Clips, Memphis, Suns and Detroit. However the ones I feel really good about are Clips, Memphis and Suns. I think the spurs game looks like a lock, but for what ever reason Indiana always plays the spurs tough at home (that might change tonight), but im skipping that game anyway. The others Im not touching, but best of Luck Sando, always enjoy checking out your picks

**liteweight** · 11-23-12, 04:58 PM

For some reason my local has Phoenix -7 on his parlay card

**Eagles27** · 11-23-12, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by liteweight

For some reason my local has Phoenix -7 on his parlay card

Is davis out? I know some people were expecting him to play tonight.

**liteweight** · 11-23-12, 05:20 PM

still no word yet. that's what I'm waiting to hear, I hope not b/c that +7 would be a gift

**grim259** · 11-23-12, 05:53 PM

Spurs and suns moved so much I can't bet on those two picks anymore. That's what I get for waking up late.

**Eagles27** · 11-23-12, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by liteweight

still no word yet. that's what I'm waiting to hear, I hope not b/c that +7 would be a gift

I took the suns at -5 (line crept up on me) with the idea that Davis would be playing. Loved it at -4, liked it at -5, but if it went to -7 I probably would have passed (even with Davis out). But I can def see the suns blowing out the hornets here by double digits (i'd just be worried about a back door cover at -7). Suns are playing well and looked sharp with their new starting line up against portland.

**16johnnymac** · 11-23-12, 06:04 PM

[On spurs early this am - 3.5 looks like a winner
QUOTE=grim259;16880320]Spurs and suns moved so much I can't bet on those two picks anymore. That's what I get for waking up late.

[/QUOTE]

**Goat Milk** · 11-23-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

we could have easily gone 5-3 with the picks, knicks up 10 in 2nd quarter, heat under went into OT, Nets were up 12 after first quarter, pistons were up at half, nuggets should have lost though

you got unlucky on heat under but dude that's not how the nba works. what because the knicks and nets were up 10 in the 2nd quarter that means they should of won? it's a 48 minute game for a reason.

A 10 point lead is nothing in the nba. Even a 20 point lead in the nba can be snapped easily by a good offensive team.

**Eagles27** · 11-23-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

you got unlucky on heat under but dude that's not how the nba works. what because the knicks and nets were up 10 in the 2nd quarter that means they should of won? it's a 48 minute game for a reason.

A 10 point lead is nothing in the nba. Even a 20 point lead in the nba can be snapped easily by a good offensive team.

This is what makes watching the NBA so hard (at least when you are wagering on favorites). Football, team goes down 28-0 you can pretty much turn off the TV and call it a win. NBA. Team up by 15 going into the 4th and you'll be sweating if the spread is -5

**Goat Milk** · 11-23-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Eagles27

This is what makes watching the NBA so hard (at least when you are wagering on favorites). Football, team goes down 28-0 you can pretty much turn off the TV and call it a win. NBA. Team up by 15 going into the 4th and you'll be sweating if the spread is -5

yeah you're absolutely right. it's tough to put a team away in the nba. it's the most select sports league in the world and therefore the most competitive in my opinion. Even guys on this site that have been gambling for a while like to start counting their winnings early. I just saw some guy who's been here for 3 4 years post in lakerboy's thread the other day "thanks for the timberwolves pick" when they were up double digits at the half to the nuggets. It's annoying and amateurish.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 11-23-12, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Eagles27

This is what makes watching the NBA so hard (at least when you are wagering on favorites). Football, team goes down 28-0 you can pretty much turn off the TV and call it a win. NBA. Team up by 15 going into the 4th and you'll be sweating if the spread is -5

Realistically if you are doing it full time, wouldn't you hedge out for a profit at 3/4 time? That way, whatever happens, you lock in some winnings and if you can get a middle in the process, even better.

**freshguy222** · 11-23-12, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

you got unlucky on heat under but dude that's not how the nba works. what because the knicks and nets were up 10 in the 2nd quarter that means they should of won? it's a 48 minute game for a reason.

A 10 point lead is nothing in the nba. Even a 20 point lead in the nba can be snapped easily by a good offensive team.

had another under that day that was screwed by OT. but if the clearly better team which would have been -9 at home is up 10, then that is way different than if it was the other way around. just saying that the picks that day were not as bad as the results indicated.

**sando** · 11-23-12, 08:25 PM

Sorry boys was planning on doing a write-up for every pick but fell asleep at 0500 (my local time). Anyway things are rolling now, trying to decide which game to watch, so many options swapping back and forth between the nets/clips and the lakers/griz at the moment, Z-Bo looking sharp early is always a bad sign for their oponents. Anyway heres to a good day and back in the black hopefully

FreshGuy - Cannot respond to your PM as your Inbox is full.

**aussieH** · 11-23-12, 08:38 PM

What do you watch the games on?

**easysaid** · 11-23-12, 09:39 PM

sando you've gone cold my friend maybe give it a break for a while?

**Untied** · 11-23-12, 09:54 PM

Speaking too soon. I see 3-4 wins and positive units at the end of the night.

**sando** · 11-23-12, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by easysaid

sando you've gone cold my friend maybe give it a break for a while?

Whether the Suns cover ATS or not it will still be a positive units night, but hey thanks for the encouragement.