Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

Ugh here we go again with the fukkin pacers....

Don't panic yet mate, I'm watching the game and the Hawks shooting %'s are off the charts, it can't last against a team like Indiana. I'm thinking a 2nd half play on the Pacers maybe? Atlanta shotting 58.8% and 66.7% from 3 ATM - completely ridiculous.


NBA 2nd Half Play

1.5* Pacers -4 (-105 Pinnacle)
Atlanta currently shooting 55%/63.6% (3). It surely wont last. The m/l play obviously looks in big trouble, however confident of reducing some of the damage with a 2nd half play (effectively Pacers +13)

[therealdealau]

Checking in. Killing it sando. Will need to talk afl when I'm back down under.

[fitguy67]

Hey Sando, good to see you back postin' with that ole' swagger...

Q about in-play betting...what's ur main book (& any useful bakup books) in this dept...i'd guess u use b365 a lot...but thot' i'd ask...

speaking of in-play, 365 has IND +12,5 (equiv to IND-4.5 for 2H) at -115

[sando]

Hey Sando, good to see you back postin' with that ole' swagger...

Q about in-play betting...what's ur main book (& any useful bakup books) in this dept...i'd guess u use b365 a lot...but thot' i'd ask...

speaking of in-play, 365 has IND +12,5 (equiv to IND-4.5 for 2H) at -115

Actually i hate Bet 365 mate, Their in-play lines are usually a criminal -120. Being in Australia we have horrible live betting laws where you have to ring your bookie up, so I always and ONLY use Pinnacle for in-play betting on all American sports, as they are based in the Caribbean so i can istantly place bets over the internet and also usually at superior odds (-105).

[fitguy67]

Actually i hate Bet 365 mate, Their in-play lines are usually a criminal -120. Being in Australia we have horrible live betting laws where you have to ring your bookie up, so I always and ONLY use Pinnacle for in-play betting on all American sports, as they are based in the Caribbean so i can istantly place bets over the internet and also usually at superior odds (-105).

case in point right here...u got a half-point better number at 10-cent better price..QED

i'm a long-tym Pinny player myself (one of my main books for pre-game)...but have never quite got the "hang" of when and how their live betting works...most of the tym all the lines seem closed or waiting for a tv-commercial or other "intermission" etc...i'll have to start figuring it out tho...cuz a 10%-plus better price than the "friendlier" b365 live-facilityi s not to be overlooked...

BTW, the indy surge u called for came strong and early...i doubt atl will ever sniff a ten-point cushion again this game

[Pikachu]

Pacers Hawks game becomes a FT shooting contest wtf. It's going to be a long game.

[sando]

Oh well hopefully some jumped on the 2nd half play to reduce the loss to 0.5 units?

[Johndrama]

Yeah I did, nice hit

[benrama]

Indiana have the mental fortitude of a gnat Sando, no heart, and quitters, just look at how many games where they got completely blown out. Atlanta have their own self-destructive tendencies, so this series is practically un-bettable for me. I actually expect every home game to be close to a blow out so if you have to bet look at Pacers game 5 and Hawks game 6.

I still like the Rockets ML, just jumped on them +4.5 live. BOL mate.

[davopnz]

gsw +7.5 is gold tomorrow, they are the better team. can't believe the disrespect the books give em

[sando]

NBA

2-1 +1.95 units

[fitguy67]

davo...with u on the early-bird GSW value (snagged it at +8, -107)...win or lose, it's a good play

[sando]

Ok I've finally updated my record in all sports that I am currently (or will be) posting plays in. No more tennis plays as I explained yesterday, and I've abandoned the Rugby 7's thread (more sports section) as well. It's too fast paced and I get too over-excited and end up playing too many games. So for now I'm just gonna stick it out til the end of the NBA finals and then after that will probably mainly just be posting a few AFL plays on the w/e's and maybe NRL (although I'm off to a horrible start this season) and the odd fight play or Netball. Might take a break from SBR after the (NBA) finals as it's a lot of work posting and updating records, not sure yet. One way or the other I have no doubt my sports IQ has grown over the last 12 months of interacting with like minded people on this forum.


NBA Play-Off Record

19-15 +7.35 units

ATS 7-8
Totals 7-5
Props 5-2

NBA Regular Season Record


238-207-14 +30.42 Units (53.5%)


NBA ATS/ML
171-158-11 (52%)


NBA Totals
67-49-3 (57.8%)


AFL


20-10 +9.48 units

NRL


2-7-2 -6.21 units



Rugby Union

7-7 +2.97 Units

MLB


12-8 +9.42 units

MMA/Boxing


11-13 +12.74 units

Netball


1-0 +1.35 units

[sando]

NBA

Memphis @ LA Clippers
2* Over 179.5 (-105)


GS @ Denver
1.5* Warriors +8 (-106)
0.5* Warriors m/l (+361)

(Pinnacle)

[RavensFan2k3]

NBA

Memphis @ LA Clippers
2* Over 179.5 (-105)


GS @ Denver
1.5* Warriors +8 (-106)
0.5* Warriors m/l (+361)

(Pinnacle)

GS ML?? Whoa...

[TheMLBKing]

warriors ML? ehhhh

[sando]

NBA 2nd Half
1.5* Over 104.5 2nd Half (-106)
I think I tried to outsmart myself with this Warriors play. The Nuggets only lost 4 games in the regular season at home. Struggling now to recall my reasoning for thinking the Warriors would take this game. Anyway this game is a typical track meet/shoot out and yet Denver is shooting average (46.2%/33.3%) and GS is shooting horribly (38.5%/38.5%), yet they have put on 112 points in the 1st half. The reason Denver is up by 20? Massive rebound and TO differential. I expect GS to improve their fg%'s slightly in the 2nd half and if the Nuggets maintain, then the 2nd half total should cruise over 104.5.

NBA Props
1.5* Zack Randolph Under 10.5 Rebounds (-131)

[davopnz]

gotta feeling this game goes under somehow, the books are burying the public on this one

[nocode1]

Actually i hate Bet 365 mate, Their in-play lines are usually a criminal -120. Being in Australia we have horrible live betting laws where you have to ring your bookie up, so I always and ONLY use Pinnacle for in-play betting on all American sports, as they are based in the Caribbean so i can istantly place bets over the internet and also usually at superior odds (-105).

Does pinnacle have in-play betting of afl sando? Or just American sports

[sando]

Does pinnacle have in-play betting of afl sando? Or just American sports

Oh how I wish mate... I would never work on the w/e again haha, just trade live in play on the footy. Not even NHL is live, just NBA, MLB, NFL and soccer which is handy (love trading live on the A league - mainly just my own variation of the old "lay the draw" system).

[davopnz]

centrebet and 365 have live betting on afl

[davopnz]

sick backdoor for your gsw +7.5

[sando]

sick backdoor for your gsw +7.5

Good call on the 2nd half under mate. That was a retarted play on my behalf...

[Arkwright]

I've been tailing a lot of your NBA/AFL plays and they've been great! Cheers Sando!

I was just wondering, do you use any sort of betting model for any sports or just bet mostly with your gut?

[sando]

NBA

Getting in early with a big play for tomorrow.

Boston @ NY
3.5* Knicks -8.5 (-105)

The line will be -9 to -10 by tip off tomorrow. Knicks to win by 14+

[gopolks]

NBA

Getting in early with a big play for tomorrow.

Boston @ NY
3.5* Knicks -8.5 (-105)

The line will be -9 to -10 by tip off tomorrow. Knicks to win by 14+

Man may have to take this bet.

[bovholty]

GOOD LUCK with the bet, Iam also on

[sando]

AFL Alert

2 x BIG plays coming this w/e. I hope you lads are ready to make some money.

I've been tailing a lot of your NBA/AFL plays and they've been great! Cheers Sando!

I was just wondering, do you use any sort of betting model for any sports or just bet mostly with your gut?

No mate I don't use a model and nor do I bet on 'gut instincts'. I do my homework big time. Watch all the footy shows (Insider, AFL 360 & on the couch being the most useful). Read the media, study the stats and most importantly I think about the game - a lot. There are some who know more about footy and some who know more about sports betting, but put the two of them together and I'll back myself in against most.

[CaptainOmar111]

Keep up the good work Sando Good Luck Sir

[Vinnie Paz]

Sando when are the first afl matches Saturday correct? Or they have some Friday as well?

[Crowing Capers]

Sando when are the first afl matches Saturday correct? Or they have some Friday as well?

on the majority of the weekends , 1 match played friday night, 5 on saturday and 3 on the sunday. Might be a monday night game or 2 this year

[sando]

NBA

Playing all three games today.

So as expected the Knicks line is now at -9 and on it's way to -9.5. I hope anybody who liked the play I posted jumped on it yesterday at -8.5 ?

Atlanta @ Indiana
2* Pacers -7 (-107)
The Pacers and coach Vogel will be very very unhappy with their efforts in Indiana. The Hawks (as overrated as they are) are great at "going on runs" as they feed off the energy of their fanatical home crowd, but now they are back on the road and I think an angry Pacers team beats up on and blows the Hawks out today. Pacers by 10+


Houston @ OKC
1.5* Rockets +9 (-105)
It's amazing what a little confidence can do for a team. Despite how hard they had to fight to get on the board against OKC, they got there and avoided the sweep. I fully expect the young Rockets team to take it up to the Thunder today. Parsons is just flat out balling and Beverley was playing well too, getting to the rim with reckless abandon and was far more effective that Lin-Sanity had been in the previous 3 games. No doubt the Thunder will win but I would not be surprised if the Rockets are in front at H/T and in the game right down to the business end of the 4th.


MLB

1.5* Orioles (-129)
(Chen/Harang)

[CaptainOmar111]

2* Pacers -7 (-107)

Good Luck Sir , I may tail this but still Iam worried about it

[Tommy_de1st]

Im already on Houston + points. GL

[CaVengo]

You do know that Harden is limited right?