Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Kentucky Speedway 🏁
Best bets for Sunday's NASCAR race at Kentucky Speedway
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sparta, Kentucky, on Sunday for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart.
ESPN Fantasy's Mike Clay hit on Kevin Harvick to win last Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400. Who will take the checkered flag Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET) at Kentucky Speedway?
Clay and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Kyle Busch (+450)
Symmes: Martin Truex Jr. has won two of the past three Kentucky races, but Busch has the best average finish in that span (3.7). Last year, Busch finished second and led the most laps with the same aero package that will be used on Sunday. (Truex's dominant Kentucky wins came with the previous rules package.) Sure, Busch hasn't shown winning speed in recent weeks, but the defending series champion is extremely due (0-for-16 in 2020). The dry spell can't continue much longer, right? The numbers suggest this could be the week he breaks through.
Clay: It's tough to be surprised by the success of the two-time Cup Series champion, but Busch's career performance at Kentucky is nearly inconceivable. In his nine trips to the Bluegrass State, Busch has scored a top-5 finish in all but two starts. He has won twice and has finished outside the top 10 just once. He has had an up-and-down 2020 season, but he has managed three runner-up finishes to this point, most recently at Atlanta. Per racing analyst Kevin Matz, Busch ranks 11th in green-flag speed on 1.5-mile ovals. That's not particularly outstanding, but consider that he finished second at Kentucky one year ago with the same high-downforce package that will be seen Sunday. Kentucky is the likeliest location for Busch to finally collect his first victory of the season.
Denny Hamlin (6-1)
Symmes: Hamlin and Harvick have been alternating wins lately, and this week it's Hamlin's turn to take the checkered flag. OK, it's not quite that simple, but these two drivers appear to have a clear edge over the competition right now. Hamlin won the most recent race at a 1.5-mile track (Homestead) and is usually in the mix at Kentucky, with three top-5 finishes there since 2015.
Sleepers
Matt Kenseth (60-1)
Symmes: Kenseth, fresh off a runner-up finish at Indianapolis, has been mostly stellar at Kentucky, recording one win and finishing in the top eight in six of his eight races there. Chip Ganassi Racing, Kenseth's current team, also has seen success at Kentucky. Kurt Busch won last year's race, and Kyle Larson, whom Kenseth replaced earlier this season, has finishes of second, ninth and fourth in the past three Kentucky events, respectively. The Kenseth-Ganassi combination is one that could bear fruit on Sunday.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sparta, Kentucky, on Sunday for the Quaker State 400 Presented by Walmart.
ESPN Fantasy's Mike Clay hit on Kevin Harvick to win last Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400. Who will take the checkered flag Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET) at Kentucky Speedway?
Clay and editor Scott Symmes offer their best bets for the race.
Note: Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday, unless otherwise noted.
Best bets
Kyle Busch (+450)
Symmes: Martin Truex Jr. has won two of the past three Kentucky races, but Busch has the best average finish in that span (3.7). Last year, Busch finished second and led the most laps with the same aero package that will be used on Sunday. (Truex's dominant Kentucky wins came with the previous rules package.) Sure, Busch hasn't shown winning speed in recent weeks, but the defending series champion is extremely due (0-for-16 in 2020). The dry spell can't continue much longer, right? The numbers suggest this could be the week he breaks through.
Clay: It's tough to be surprised by the success of the two-time Cup Series champion, but Busch's career performance at Kentucky is nearly inconceivable. In his nine trips to the Bluegrass State, Busch has scored a top-5 finish in all but two starts. He has won twice and has finished outside the top 10 just once. He has had an up-and-down 2020 season, but he has managed three runner-up finishes to this point, most recently at Atlanta. Per racing analyst Kevin Matz, Busch ranks 11th in green-flag speed on 1.5-mile ovals. That's not particularly outstanding, but consider that he finished second at Kentucky one year ago with the same high-downforce package that will be seen Sunday. Kentucky is the likeliest location for Busch to finally collect his first victory of the season.
Denny Hamlin (6-1)
Symmes: Hamlin and Harvick have been alternating wins lately, and this week it's Hamlin's turn to take the checkered flag. OK, it's not quite that simple, but these two drivers appear to have a clear edge over the competition right now. Hamlin won the most recent race at a 1.5-mile track (Homestead) and is usually in the mix at Kentucky, with three top-5 finishes there since 2015.
Sleepers
Matt Kenseth (60-1)
Symmes: Kenseth, fresh off a runner-up finish at Indianapolis, has been mostly stellar at Kentucky, recording one win and finishing in the top eight in six of his eight races there. Chip Ganassi Racing, Kenseth's current team, also has seen success at Kentucky. Kurt Busch won last year's race, and Kyle Larson, whom Kenseth replaced earlier this season, has finishes of second, ninth and fourth in the past three Kentucky events, respectively. The Kenseth-Ganassi combination is one that could bear fruit on Sunday.