Technically this is the Grand Prix of Steiermark or Styrian Grand Prix rather than the 2nd Austrian Grand Prix, but effectively this is a reset and 2nd go at last week's race. I felt I had a pretty good handle on the last race. The main surprise for me was that McLaren had closed the gap to the Ferrari/Racing Point battle. Conditions are predicted to be similar so cars that were good last week should be good again this week.
The win market is always subject to ridiculous juice so I rarely post about it. It's a surprise to see Leclerc and Vettel at +4500 and +6600. Those are fair, (but not +ev), prices considering how the car is. I expect Ferrari to be more sensible in Q2 this week and both car to start in the top 9. The podium finish market looks pretty tough but a couple of books have gone out on a limb with a few drivers. Bwin/Sportingbet have Vettel at +700, (estimated true odds +550) whilst BetVictor/Betway have Sainz at +1400, (estimated true odds +1060). Several books have Norris at a shorter price than Sainz for both win and podium. If you can get a decent price for Sainz head-to-head against Norris then take it. I estimate Sainz' true odds at -128 to beat Norris. There is a reason why Sainz beat Norris most races last year in the same car and why Ferrari picked him to replace Vettel in 2021. Norris is not suddenly the better driver. Best odds i've seen are -117 on both H2H. It's value, but i'm looking for better from books with Norris favourite. I still have Giovinazzi a -103 favourite to beat Räikkönen. Last week he was +240 but that book has tightened up and posted +110 for this race. It's still a bit of value. There could be better odds out there.
I don't want to get into an argument with @Optional but I don't rate Stroll as a top F1 driver. He's not garbage, he deserves to be in F1, but I take Ferrari and McLaren drivers to beat him. Ferrari are -167 vs Racing Point H2H which I think is fair, although it's not exactly 2 Ferrari vs 1 Racing Point, (Perez). McLaren are -125 to beat Racing Point H2H and that's also a fair price. (Both priced at Sportingbet). There might be a bit of value in there since Ferrari and McLaren were reliable last week whilst Racing Point had 1 car, (Stroll), fail to finish.
Overall it's tougher this week. Good luck with your bets.
The win market is always subject to ridiculous juice so I rarely post about it. It's a surprise to see Leclerc and Vettel at +4500 and +6600. Those are fair, (but not +ev), prices considering how the car is. I expect Ferrari to be more sensible in Q2 this week and both car to start in the top 9. The podium finish market looks pretty tough but a couple of books have gone out on a limb with a few drivers. Bwin/Sportingbet have Vettel at +700, (estimated true odds +550) whilst BetVictor/Betway have Sainz at +1400, (estimated true odds +1060). Several books have Norris at a shorter price than Sainz for both win and podium. If you can get a decent price for Sainz head-to-head against Norris then take it. I estimate Sainz' true odds at -128 to beat Norris. There is a reason why Sainz beat Norris most races last year in the same car and why Ferrari picked him to replace Vettel in 2021. Norris is not suddenly the better driver. Best odds i've seen are -117 on both H2H. It's value, but i'm looking for better from books with Norris favourite. I still have Giovinazzi a -103 favourite to beat Räikkönen. Last week he was +240 but that book has tightened up and posted +110 for this race. It's still a bit of value. There could be better odds out there.
I don't want to get into an argument with @Optional but I don't rate Stroll as a top F1 driver. He's not garbage, he deserves to be in F1, but I take Ferrari and McLaren drivers to beat him. Ferrari are -167 vs Racing Point H2H which I think is fair, although it's not exactly 2 Ferrari vs 1 Racing Point, (Perez). McLaren are -125 to beat Racing Point H2H and that's also a fair price. (Both priced at Sportingbet). There might be a bit of value in there since Ferrari and McLaren were reliable last week whilst Racing Point had 1 car, (Stroll), fail to finish.
Overall it's tougher this week. Good luck with your bets.
