Easysaid - Rugby Union Picks

[TBsp75]

total points 43.5 for canterbury v auckland at TAB(nz). tat's $ in the bank. perfect weather for running rugby.
they can kick over 44 points just with anscombe and taylor.
whitelock & crotty out (they are more of defensive players anyway).

[TBsp75]

ppl, is it even possible for this match to go under 43 points? i just can't believe what i'm looking at right now
guys who lives in nz, go TAB b4 it's too late

[hawley]

Bet365 is at 51.5 so line looks to be off by a fair bit.

If weather is fine I can't see it staying under, especially with two good kickers.

[TBsp75]

weather's perfect here in chch. sun came out for couple of days already after the rain. ground's dry now and gonna be even drier on sat with mild wind. perfect condition for goal kicking and running. anscombe and taylor have kicking percentage of 80% or higher combined so even if the ref. give away lots cheap penalties they'll kick the scores over.

canterbury
total tries - over 3.5 - $2.25
total points - over 26.5 - $1.87
auckland
total tries - over 1.5 - $1.87
total points - over 17.5 - $1.87
all looks like pretty good bets.

[hawley]

weather's perfect here in chch. sun came out for couple of days already after the rain. ground's dry now and gonna be even drier on sat with mild wind. perfect condition for goal kicking and running. anscombe and taylor have kicking percentage of 80% or higher combined so even if the ref. give away lots cheap penalties they'll kick the scores over.

I will lock it in and consider trying to middle with bet365 but probably let it ride.

44 points doesn't seem too high even considering it is a final.

[hawley]

Auckland TT at 17.5 as well. I can't imagine they don't score at least 18 points?

[easysaid]

BIG WIN FROM COUNTIES TONIGHT!!!

Otago had no chance with the pace counties set, good cash boys

[benandjerry]

BIG WIN FROM COUNTIES TONIGHT!!!

Otago had no chance with the pace counties set, good cash boys

Good call, good game!

[TBsp75]

one more win to make this season even perfect-er.
hope you guys stick around during euro tour and next yr's super rugby.

[davopnz]

you concerned about canterburys injury toll at all? i rode the canterbury money wagon but they're starting a halfback on the wing...

[easysaid]

you concerned about canterburys injury toll at all? i rode the canterbury money wagon but they're starting a halfback on the wing...

When it comes to finals footy you either get a blow-out or a close win never do you see "medium wins" as the losing team starts giving up closer to the hooter letting down their D etc , i think this line is irrelavant and comes down to weither auckland are going to have a grind-it out match.. like i said earlier canterbury have hit their speedbump last week sending the game into extra time and will look for an early shutout.

ADDING - Canterbury/Auckland Game Total u53.5 for 7 UNITS

Whenever these two sides play each other you always see a defensive battle and with such an important occasion i can see this game ending in a 25-13 result i would seriously recommend jumping on this total as its well overcooked (NZ TAB opened this game @43.5 and they have the most insiders info of all books)

This would have to be my last big play of the year congrats if you manage to get a piece.

[davopnz]

tom taylor back which is big.

over is upto 50.5 on tab

punters smash that over 43.5 im guessing?

[easysaid]

Not punters abritage bettors, they would have taken the under 45 points at bet365 for $2.62 and taken the over 43.5 at TAB NZ and earn 9% (100% risk free) Il admit i did this for $2k but nonetheless this game is going under.

[RLF]

On the under and Auckland ml. Auckland are gunna do what they did to Wellington, starve Canterbury of the ball.

[TBsp75]

Not punters abritage bettors, they would have taken the under 45 points at bet365 for $2.62 and taken the over 43.5 at TAB NZ and earn 9% (100% risk free) Il admit i did this for $2k but nonetheless this game is going under.

thx for sharing u bustard!!

anyway thx for the great season. let's cash this last play.

[benandjerry]

are you guys concerned about the under the way this game has gone so far? anyone contemplating buying out?

[nosaij]

they would slow down at second half?

[nosaij]

is it OT?

[benandjerry]

Not punters abritage bettors, they would have taken the under 45 points at bet365 for $2.62 and taken the over 43.5 at TAB NZ and earn 9% (100% risk free) Il admit i did this for $2k but nonetheless this game is going under.

thats so sick mate, was pulling for it... nearly hit that 1.5 point middle as well, so brutal ending.

good call on both picks though, hope you carry on with other rugby competitions in the future.

[hawley]

Dam this guy is an absolute beast

[nosaij]

Easy!

[easysaid]

That early try from auckland had me worried canterbury were underestimating their opponents, but sure enough they picked up 20mins into the half and started playing the game i was after, good cash boys won myself a fair bit this season going over 70% hope you all got a piece!!

[garygroundwork]

good work mate

[brettels]

Easysaid, thanks for a good ITM cup, never heard of the competition until your thread and even started watching a few games. Stick around, you are officially the rugby union king.

[TBsp75]

international rugby coming up ppl!! any thoughts on early lines?

[easysaid]

Guys i have a few plays for this weekend, plus some future bets.

Some of these lines are only out in the TAB NZ

South Africa -4.5 over Ireland for 5 Units

Australia +3.5 over France for 3 Units

Wales -8.5 over Argentina for 3 Units

Australia to win Lion Series for 5 Units

All Blacks -24.5 over Italy for 4 Units

All Blacks -10.5 over England for 4 units

Post what you think below, i wasnt going to touch INT Rugby this month (about to head on holiday) however, i feel i must bet these lines as the books have made some serious mistakes that should help pay for some of my activities overseas

[TBsp75]

be careful with the weather. winter in euro. ground will be damp even in a sunny day.
might even snow during these test matches period.

that's why they pick weepu in the squad coz he plays good in shitty weather.

[TBsp75]

Guys i have a few plays for this weekend, plus some future bets.

Some of these lines are only out in the TAB NZ

South Africa -4.5 over Ireland for 5 Units

Australia +3.5 over France for 3 Units

Wales -8.5 over Argentina for 3 Units

Australia to win Lion Series for 5 Units

All Blacks -24.5 over Italy for 4 Units

All Blacks -10.5 over England for 4 units

Post what you think below, i wasnt going to touch INT Rugby this month (about to head on holiday) however, i feel i must bet these lines as the books have made some serious mistakes that should help pay for some of my activities overseas

agree with SA-4.5, AUS+3.5 and ABs. dun think they can catch up with the top 3 ranks under 5 sec ruck rule.
nt so sure abt wales-8.5. dun really know the team that well.

[benandjerry]

do you still like these numbers

australia +2.5
wales -10.5
nz -25.5

[sweepem]

leans

Ireland + 4 (The line is wrong, game should be a PK. South Africa looked horrible in their away matches in Argentina and Australia). 21-15 Ireland

Australia +3 (Australia sucks, boring but effective. Have won 10 in a row over France). 23-20 Australia

Argentina +10.5 (Wales are the better team and should win but not by 10+). 24-19 Wales

Scotland +26.5 (cold weather,rain, many errors + many scrums=cover). 26-9 NZ

Also why are England a 32.5 point favorite over Fiji? I don't know much about Fiji but that line looks to high? Do they play their B team?

[RLF]

Mate do you realise Ireland are without Ferris (their best forward), O'Brien (second best forward) and Best (third best forward)? Now in the backs they're missing O'Driscoll (their best back) and Kearney (tied with Sexton as their 2nd best back). I hear O'Connell is struggling as well. South Africa XV is very strong. I can see them winning this by 20. Ireland's last match with a similar injury toll was 60-0 to the All Blacks.

I think all the SH teams, including Argentina will outperform their NH counterparts. The TRC is such a tough competition, you have to play the best sides in the world week in week out. The guys in the NH have been playing club rugby lately, it's not the same. They're going to struggle in these first up games.

Australia should easily account for France without Dusautoir, their backs are rubbish and will struggle to score points and the Aus scrum won't falter like it did last game (which was still 59-16). France lack leadership without Dusautoir and Rougerie and I can see their two locks being undisciplined costing them. Australia in decent form with their last start drawing with the ABs and are getting players like Pocock, Moore, Ioane back. Australia's playing a NH style game at the moment with very strong goal kickers which will be ideal in poor conditions.

ABs will cover, just depending if the weather is dry on Sunday afternoon. Argentina will cover as well, Wales won't click first game back and are missing Lydiate and Ryan Jones. Warburton and Faletau also not in form. Scrum likely to struggle without Adam Jones and parity in the pack will mean their backs aren't able to capitalise. Argentina's backline defence was pretty good throughout TRC with only the home game against the ABs a blemish.

Fiji are too unknown to bet on their cap. Would have to go with the England seeing as they lost by 45 to NZ, 60 to Wales, 50 to SA last year and have a lot of new faces.

[TBsp75]

wow fiji rugby isn't that bad. they are no.1 in sevens. their backline's strong n fast (if full squad) which suits the 5 sec rule.
they are pretty much on the same level as italy.

they played each other 4 times and biggest winning margin for eng was 35 back in 1989. fiji has improved much more. but fiji has another game against gloucester on 13th so need to c how they manage their squad.

[easysaid]

Mate do you realise Ireland are without Ferris (their best forward), O'Brien (second best forward) and Best (third best forward)? Now in the backs they're missing O'Driscoll (their best back) and Kearney (tied with Sexton as their 2nd best back). I hear O'Connell is struggling as well. South Africa XV is very strong. I can see them winning this by 20. Ireland's last match with a similar injury toll was 60-0 to the All Blacks.

I think all the SH teams, including Argentina will outperform their NH counterparts. The TRC is such a tough competition, you have to play the best sides in the world week in week out. The guys in the NH have been playing club rugby lately, it's not the same. They're going to struggle in these first up games.

Australia should easily account for France without Dusautoir, their backs are rubbish and will struggle to score points and the Aus scrum won't falter like it did last game (which was still 59-16). France lack leadership without Dusautoir and Rougerie and I can see their two locks being undisciplined costing them. Australia in decent form with their last start drawing with the ABs and are getting players like Pocock, Moore, Ioane back. Australia's playing a NH style game at the moment with very strong goal kickers which will be ideal in poor conditions.

ABs will cover, just depending if the weather is dry on Sunday afternoon. Argentina will cover as well, Wales won't click first game back and are missing Lydiate and Ryan Jones. Warburton and Faletau also not in form. Scrum likely to struggle without Adam Jones and parity in the pack will mean their backs aren't able to capitalise. Argentina's backline defence was pretty good throughout TRC with only the home game against the ABs a blemish.

Fiji are too unknown to bet on their cap. Would have to go with the England seeing as they lost by 45 to NZ, 60 to Wales, 50 to SA last year and have a lot of new faces.

Dude, hansen has confirmed a AB's "B" side for the match against scotland, im leaning scotland as heavy under dogs. Im going to take AB's against the stronger sides (e.g england)

[RLF]

Still, Scotland won't score any tries, so maybe about 6 points, 9 max. If it's dry the ABs should be able to score 3-4 and get around 35 points. The line is pretty accurate but depending on the team list they should be covering.

Looks like England will be playing a 'B' team as well, Fiji cap looking better.

[davopnz]

AB's b team is better than 98% of everyone elses A team. these games all look very tough bar south africa over ireland.

also you realise the lions series in june 2013 right?