TG you ever play team totals?
Cowboys team total over is one of my favourite plays this weekend.
Cowboys team total over is one of my favourite plays this weekend.
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NRL Season 2013 15-1-14 +0.25
Round 5
Playing things much tighter this week.. but in saying that we have 2x great opportunities for UNDERS in Friday night football and shouldn't shy away from games that look the goods.
Play #1
Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95
Nothing splits these sides.. stats are almost identical and these games in the past have been a slow grind.
Expect much the same tonight in a big game for both sides. Model has this one at 28pts and I'm rolling 1x on this one.
GL
Play #2
Titans vs Broncos UNDER 34.5 2x 1.95
This game is huge for the Broncos who risk losing touch with the top 8 and they know it. We have lots of players out or returning from injury which should slow things down - Ashley Harrison returns who is a great defender, Stagg is out, Thaiday is out and Hoffman is touch and go. Broncos will be keen to keep this one under control after last week escaped them very quickly thanks to some ordinary defense.
Rolling 2x on this one. Model has it at 26points which gives us lots of value. GL
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updated: NRL Season 2013 16-1-15 -0.75
Round 5 1-1
Damn you Broncos and your loose 1st half defensive efforts.. OVER looked like it could be a winner until the 77th minute. DAMN.
We get it back tomorrow!Comment -
Love the cowboys total points over play hawley 28.5 seems too low imo. TG best of luck man I would never tell you how to bet but have you thought about flat betting? Overall you have good picks but don't seem to have much luck with the 2x plays. Just my 2 centsComment -
Cowboys over was probably the easiest play of the season so far for me.Originally posted by snufflyjoeComment -
NRL Season 2013 16-1-15 -0.75
Round 5 1-1
Play #3
Warriors vs Rabbitohs OVER 44.5 1x 1.95
Rabbitohs pace should lend itself to the OVER hitting for this game. They've been great with cheap points as well - letting in almost 17points per game. Rabbitohs defense can get lazy when they're leading the game and we're not talking about a side that is defensively as strong as the Sea Eagles or Roosters (with just 6 and 10ppg averages against).
Model has this at 50points and rolling 1x OVER. GL
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Comment -
adding:
Play #4
Raiders vs Roosters UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Roosters defense has been superb giving away on average only 9ppg and Raiders struggling to put points on the board. This should be a low-scoring game and model has it at 32points. Raiders without Campese and Ferguson lack firepower to seriously challenge the Roosters and with a lopsided matchup comes less scoring opportunities. Rolling 1x UNDER 40.5 at 1.95Comment -
With you on the under, good luck.Comment -
Originally posted by That GuyNRL Season 2013 15-1-14 +0.25
Round 5
Playing things much tighter this week.. but in saying that we have 2x great opportunities for UNDERS in Friday night football and shouldn't shy away from games that look the goods.
Play #1
Bulldogs vs Sea Eagles UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95
Nothing splits these sides.. stats are almost identical and these games in the past have been a slow grind.
Expect much the same tonight in a big game for both sides. Model has this one at 28pts and I'm rolling 1x on this one.
GL
Play #2
Titans vs Broncos UNDER 34.5 2x 1.95
This game is huge for the Broncos who risk losing touch with the top 8 and they know it. We have lots of players out or returning from injury which should slow things down - Ashley Harrison returns who is a great defender, Stagg is out, Thaiday is out and Hoffman is touch and go. Broncos will be keen to keep this one under control after last week escaped them very quickly thanks to some ordinary defense.
Rolling 2x on this one. Model has it at 26points which gives us lots of value. GL
Titans vs broncos finished 12-32Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 17-1-16 -0.80
Round 5 2-2
Rabbitohs game went as predicted however the Roosters game falling apart in the second half really hurt us..
1 more play left on MNF!Comment -
NRL Season 2013 17-1-16 -0.80
Round 5 2-2
Play #5
Storm vs Tigers UNDER 44.5 1x 1.95
Storm have the highest PPG figure in the NRL but have played some very very ordinary opposition. Based on those stats their PPG adjusted should be considerably lower. The Tigers have had trouble scoring points but their defensive record isn't too bad.. all week they've been hitting defensive drills and this game looks to be a low scoring grind-fest. However predicting a late Storm blow out which should hopefully hold out UNDER 44pts. Model has this game at 38pts and rolling 1x UNDER. GL
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This is correct - we chalked this one up as a loss.Originally posted by ultrasouth
CheersComment -
I got the bad 42.5 Line Under and had to sweat out last 5mins, good winner though, congrats.Comment -
Storm were charging home, but still cashes, nice way to finish the weekend
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Hey mate, excellent work , a bit of variance would have us well in front but it is a grind.Good to see positive units now and with your excellent work the units will keep growing now the season has sorted itself out.
i was at the Raiders match and at half time there was no reason to think the Raiders would pf scored one or two tries let alone 4. roosters defence looked very solid untill then and i guess we need to take the Raiders home form as at least 12 to 14 points better from when they travel.
Once again thanks for your great work and may the units grow througout the season to the magical 40 mark , secretly i believe you will make 50.
QUOTE=That Guy;18322070]updated: NRL Season 2013 17-1-16 -0.80
Round 5 2-2
Rabbitohs game went as predicted however the Roosters game falling apart in the second half really hurt us..
1 more play left on MNF![/QUOTE]Comment -
[/QUOTE]Originally posted by angelo63
Cheers mate
Great game to be at!
Not sure what I prefer more - losing 2x units and seeing the Roosters lose a game they owned or cashing a winner?!Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 18-1-16 +0.75
Round 5 3-2
Tough weekend but grinding back into positive territory. Statistically variance settles down after Round 5 and we can get a better read on things.. hopefully Round 6 is the time to start cashing more wins.
Back at it later in the week!Comment -
NRL Season 2013 18-1-16 +0.75
Round 6
Play #1
Roosters vs Bulldogs UNDER 36.5 2x 1.95
Really like this play. Roosters have been amazing in defense this year and their slip up last week was a big wake up call. They only concede an average of 13ppg and are up against a team that only scores 14ppg. With no major injury concerns or withdrawals for both sides this looks the goods to be a classic grindfest. Model has this game at 30pts and with the focus of the week being defense for the Roosters in training, all signs point to a low scoring matchup. Rolling 2x UNDER for this match at 1.95. GL
No play on Broncos vs Cowboys - books have the total spot on and stats are too up/down to make this a play.Comment -
Pinny, u36.5 at 1.926/-108...not bad
...but i really gotta get Centrebet up & running
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TAB is 1.95 the under.
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8 points scored in the first half...fkn bullshit. damm canterbury are shitComment -
Didnt watch it, but what a joke to come back and see final score after seeing the HT score...Comment -
Dogs worst performance so far. Without James Graham running the pack,they seem unable connect with the backline.
No points,no confidence= no f...ing D. Under was the right play,just a bad beat.Comment -
yeah the dogs are in a world of trouble..i expected them to be top 4. when they get kasiano and graham back they will start winning but right now they are in big danger of missing the 8. next week against sharks all of a sudden becomes a final almost.
def right play TG just shit luckComment -
Roosters seem very good this season, any coincidence its because Anasta left?Comment -
Bad bad beat... Maloney gets EVERY conversion as well to make the over hit - crazy odds even if he's an 80% kicker.
UNDER was the right call, variance just killed it on another crazy night.Comment -
Updated: NRL Season 2013 18-1-17 -1.25
Round 6 0-1
Bummer. As suggested it was a bad bad beat... 8 points in the first half and 30 in the second with ZERO points from the Dogs. Maloney 100% kicking - you can't make this stuff up.
Anyway.. back into the positives for Saturday. Plays coming soon!Comment -
NRL Season 2013 18-1-17 -1.25
Round 6 0-1
Play #2
Raiders vs Warriors OVER 44 1x 1.95
Campese returns for the Raiders in this matchup where the Warriors will be keen to try anything to snatch a win. Locke and Johnson will be ready to roll for the Warriors. These two teams have broken records for the amount of points scored in a match over the past few years.. Warriors have remained without a win at Bruce for the last 16 years as well!
Model has this game at 48points and rolling 1x OVER 44. GL
Play #3
Rabbitohs vs Storm UNDER 36 1x 2.05
Rabbitohs will be much more controlled this week and look to gain the upper hand with possession off Reynolds boot. Averages for both sides playing top 3 sides are extremely low and the PPG stats in Sydney for the Storm look even better. Both sides concede about 15ppg (against all sides) and it should be much tighter given the defensive structure of both lineups.
Model has the game at 29pts. Rolling 1x UNDER. GL
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updated: NRL Season 2013 19-1-18 -1.30
Round 6 1-2
1 up / 1 down.. Rabbitohs UNDER was the solid play of the nightComment -
NRL Season 2013 19-1-18 -1.30
Round 6 1-2
Play #4
Tigers vs Dragons UNDER 40.5 3x 1.98
Biggest play of the year and a GREAT number thanks to Luxbet while everyone else are at 36/38. Would suggest anything lower than 38 is a 2x play. We have two highly inconsistent teams that average only 14 and 16 points per game. The conceded points figure is blown out because the Dragons / Tigers have played the top 3 attacking sides - Sea Eagles, Storm, Knights. Have this game at 30points and hitting this hard at 3x UNDER 40.5. GL
Play #5
Sharks Team Total UNDER 12.5 1x 1.95
No Carney, playing a team at home that concedes only 7 points per game. We'd need 3 tries for this not to hit and I don't think it happens. Sharks only average 14ppg and without Carney it makes it a lot harder. Was originally eyeing off the total UNDER 38 but this is a much safer bet in my eyes.. Sea Eagles could run away with this one but it'd take a lot for the Sharks to gain the upper hand in this match. GL
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Like the plays, unfortunately I got worse lines and prices than you on both but hopefully will still be okay.Comment -
Adding:
Play #6
Titans vs Eels UNDER 40.5 1x 1.90
Titans will be keen to control this one defensively after a shocking match last week. Injury worries take the edge off a normally lethal Titans side at home. Who knows what to expect from the Eels but consistency is not a word associated with their performances recently - they've been horrible backing up the week after a win. Expecting average performances from both sides and a total around 32pts.
Hitting the UNDER 1x 1.90. GL
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You can thank Ben Roberts for the Under getting blown.Originally posted by That GuyAdding:
Play #6
Titans vs Eels UNDER 40.5 1x 1.90
Titans will be keen to control this one defensively after a shocking match last week. Injury worries take the edge off a normally lethal Titans side at home. Who knows what to expect from the Eels but consistency is not a word associated with their performances recently - they've been horrible backing up the week after a win. Expecting average performances from both sides and a total around 32pts.
Hitting the UNDER 1x 1.90. GLComment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 20-1-19 -0.36
Grinding back to positive territory. Titans vs Eels play kept us from having the best round so far this season.
GL this week!Comment
