Wow, what is with all the bad beats this year, 3 tries up the sleeve with 15 mins to go and it still goes over :s
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updated: NRL Season 2013 8-0-7 +0.60
Round 3 0-1
Just one of those games where everything looks fine until the last 5mins... once the crazy variance settles down we should see totals that are more off the mark and easy hammered.
Onto tonight!Comment -
Bad beat, felt like we were on the right side for 95% of it. Oh well.Comment -
NRL Season 2013 8-0-7 +0.60
Round 3 0-1
Play #2
Tigers vs Eels OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Too much loose play from both teams should push this OVER. We'd need both sides to play tight defense for this to stay UNDER and it is not likely. Tigers have one of the highest points against figures so far this year and I don't see that changing in this game. Atmosphere should be intense as both teams are desperate for another win on the board and OVER figures for Campbelltown are impressive.
Rolling 1x OVER 40.5 at 1.95. Expecting a high scoring game on the back of high error rates from both teams. GL
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I'm on this one going over as well TG. Good luck!Comment -
Thanks for the plays
It's pissing down here, I wonder how long this will last
Unders already hitComment -
Where is here ? Weather is good in the city atmComment -
hit silverwater now
windy, heavy rain and even hail
brace yourselvesComment -
It's raining here in Sydney. Could be a factor @ leichhardt Oval tonight.
Parramatta love the grind.Comment -
That puts a spanner in the works ... I am kinda leaning Parra. Its Leichardt Oval so its not the best idea to tip against the Tigers, but I think Ricky Stuart might get more out of his forwards in the rain than the Tigers canComment -
If it rains anywhere in Sydney its always rozelle or north Sydney dam it. Fine now but not another nz scenario please. Crowd always makes the refs see it their way in tiger town.Comment -
NRL Season 2013 8-0-7 +0.60
Round 3 0-1
Play #2
Tigers vs Eels OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Too much loose play from both teams should push this OVER. We'd need both sides to play tight defense for this to stay UNDER and it is not likely. Tigers have one of the highest points against figures so far this year and I don't see that changing in this game. Atmosphere should be intense as both teams are desperate for another win on the board and OVER figures for Campbelltown are impressive.
Rolling 1x OVER 40.5 at 1.95. Expecting a high scoring game on the back of high error rates from both teams. GL
Its at leichhardt Oval...Good luck with you're play
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Great cash TG.
Wests Tigers went through their typical snooze period which helped the over.
Parramatta were ill deciplined tonight and you really need to be on your game @ Leichhardt as 50/50 calls will go against you.Comment -
Apologies for having the wrong venue - NRL.com had Campbelltown listed on my doc which means I went off the weather and stats out west.
Anyway.. It cashed so who cares!Comment -
Awesome stuff TG, killing it !Comment -
Well done TGComment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 9-0-7 +1.55
Round 3 1-1Comment -
NRL Season 2013 9-0-7 +1.55
Round 3 1-1
Play #3
Titans vs Sea Eagles OVER 36.5 1x 1.95
We're getting a low total for a team (Titans) that is led by the tempo of the opposing team. Vs Sharks they played conservative and followed the lead, while against the up tempo Raiders they fired on all cylinders and threw it around. So far the Sea Eagles have managed to notch up 20+ points against every team they have played. In fine conditions on the coast this game is ripe to hit 36+ points and should be fast paced with both teams chancing it.. model has the total at 42pts which makes this a 1x play. GL
Play #4
Roosters vs Broncos UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
New Roosters coach has them focused on a defensive game and they did well against the Warriors to hold them out last week. Broncos should be an easier proposition at home, they're a team that hasn't really showed any class and should be easy to clean up after. They have also stressed this week that defense is the key. Have this game at a much lower 32pts and if it wasn't round 3 I'd be playing it for more. Broncos are a different team in Sydney and this should be well UNDER. Rolling 1x UNDER. GL
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Like the second play, although I see the odds are lower (the line hasn't moved in most places) now. Not sure about the Titans/Sea Eagles game, missed the start of the match here, but think it is a bit of a no-play, but GL!Comment -
That under may have been the easiest play of the year.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 10-0-8 +1.50
Round 3 2-2
Should have played the Roosters vs Broncos for 2units as suggested above. Damn!
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NRL Season 2013 10-0-8 +1.50
Round 3 2-2
Play #5
Sharks vs Warriors UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Sharks have been playing conservative but solid football and this matchup looks good for the UNDER despite some shocking football from the Warriors. Sharks have one of the lowest figures for points per game and have struggled to find the try line. Excellent defense has kept them in games till the end and it should be a slow grind till the Sharks pull away.
Rolling 1x UNDER for this matchup. GL
Play #6
Panthers vs Rabbitohs OVER 44 1x 1.95
Big total but we've got a great attacking team up against a side that has very bad figures for points conceded. Has all the hallmarks of a try fest and doubt that the Panthers will be able to contain the Rabbitohs attack on the fringes. Add that with a goal kicker who is the best in the NRL and we're guaranteed to get a few bonus points. Model has this game at 48points and I'm rolling 1x OVER for this one. GL
Play #7
Raiders vs Dragons OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Dragons have been SHOCKING so far this year and based on avg points against per game (26) this game almost hits the OVER.
Expect some sloppy football but pace of Raiders has picked up and we should get a free flowing game. Dragons have got to exceed their average of only 8points per game at some stage. Expect that happens tonight. Great revenge spot for the Dragons who were rolled at the last minute by the Raiders last year. Hitting this for 1x OVER at 1.95. GL
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Warriors are getting blown out. They have been woeful this year. 11 loses in a row since last season.Comment -
Great calls today. Missed the first two plays but tailed the last. Did not look good at half timeComment -
Impressive!
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updated: NRL Season 2013 13-0-8 +4.35
Round 3 5-2
Great day on the books yesterday!
Variance on our side for the weekend.. hopefully we can end it with another win tonight and bring the total to just over 5units.
Some shocking performances again from the Warriors and Dragons. Great to see the predicted tryfest at Penrith eventuate with the OVER cashing before halftime.. gotta love that.Comment -
NRL Season 2013 13-0-8 +4.35
Round 3 5-2
Play #8
Knights vs Cowboys OVER 40 1x 1.95
First glance and this looks like a great UNDER play.. however, both sides have low figures thanks to playing two of the most defensively solid teams in the NRL - Sea Eagles and Storm. Take away those games and we've got very good averages plus teams who know how to pile on points. Predicting this game will open up and by smoothing out Sea Eagles / Storm matches the model has this at 48pts.
Rolling 1x OVER at 1.95. GL
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.... And we have our first "push" for the year. Aka 'get out of jail free card'.Comment -
Lucky to get the push with that last try.. phew had 300 on the over..Comment -
Just wondering where you got 40 from? And at $1.95?
All I could see today was 40.5s?!
Filthy the missed conversions & the decision to take the penalty goal cost the over 40.5Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 13-1-8 +4.35
End Round 3 5-1-2
Good round to give some breathing space as the modeling starts to play a bigger part going forward.
Unfortunate the Cowboys couldn't hit the conversion to make it 5units+ but can't complain about a push.
Grind continues for round 4Comment
