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Hey TG
Nice work so far. Im new to the forum and thought this thread would be a good place to start. I'm a sports bettor and trader who takes it seriously. I focus a lot on NRL spread and total points lines.
The reason i have come on here is to try and find like minded people to share thoughts and resources and hopefully learn something to help with my own systems and models.
I'm wondering TG does your model account at all for what i call the "bounce back factor". It is a theory i have had in NRL that with skill/fitness/ coaching levels fairly equal these days a big factor is the mental attitude of a certain team on a certain day.This can be hard to predict and harder to factor into a model. I have found that especially with better performing teams, when they come home after a loss particularly a big loss they can tend to outperform expectations by reason of being "up for the game". 2 examples from the round just past are Canberra and Newcastle.
Just wondering if anyone had any thoughts.Comment -
Farlad - buy low, sell high works in sports as well as any other market, so I think you are thinking along the right lines. I also tend to look to back good teams coming off a flogging, whether they are playing home or away. I haven't applied any analysis to it, but would love to know how this angle might have fared in 2012 for, say the top 8 teams. Have you looked into the ATS results if you'd pursued a system like this in 2012?Comment -
benrama- thanks for your comments. No i havent done any analysis on it. My data analysis/Excel skills are improving but still pretty much in their infancy. On the point do you have or know where to find ATS/ totals data for the last couple of years? At present i dont have the line/spread data. This is something i am working on atm, trying to refine the rather crude way i estimate spreads and total points lines. Pretty much just using efficiency differentials, estimated possessions with a HGA adjustment atm. If anyone is interested in talking about it further with a view to a collaboration or something its also something i might be interested in exploring.Comment -
NRL Season 2013 13-1-8 +4.35
Round 4
Play #1
Sea Eagles vs Tigers UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Why are we getting a total of only 40 when the averages are so much higher for both teams?
Based on raw data this should be a total of 44 or more.. however, all the signs point to this being a run away game for 1 side and it looks good for the Sea Eagles. Both teams are focused on defensive efforts this week, especially the Tigers after conceding almost 20pts per game. They will be looking to slow the play right down tonight and with potential for rain that might happen without any effort on their part. Model sees this game as being far from an even match up.. and when 1 team is scoring all the points its hard for the total to hit the OVER. Have this game at 32points and rolling the UNDER at 1x 1.95. GL
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thanks tg! great analysis im going manly -8 myself but good luck to us!Comment -
Unders looking solidComment -
nice play mate
variance could be on our side this weekendComment -
Great analysis of the game mate, worked out perfectly, well done
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updated: NRL Season 2013 14-1-8 +5.30
Round 4 1-0
Solid play last night with the game sticking to the script for the entire 80mins. Let's see how long this 4-0 streak can last!
Play #2
Broncos vs Storm UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Broncos have offered up a whole lot of not much and shouldn't challenge the Storm too much tonight. They've been effective in keeping team points down while wasting time with plays that offer very little. Can't see that taking a complete turn around tonight and have the total at 30points. Should be a lopsided game but the Broncos will offer some early resistance and hopefully keep out total down. Rolling 1x UNDER 36.5 but wouldn't touch it at any lower.
GL
Play #3
Bulldogs vs Rabbitohs UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Both of these teams concede only 20pts on average and have yet to experience a major blowout. This will be a battle in defensive efforts and looks setup to be a slow grind. There is the chance of rain but expecting dry conditions, which for this style of game should be perfect. Bulldogs strike power out wide (where majority of points have come from) should be nullified to an extent by solid Rabbitohs defense in that department. UNDER stats for these sides are impressive and it should be a lower total than we've seen from both sides so far. Rolling 1x UNDER 40.5. GL
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A bit concerning was the 32 points the Panthers put on Souths last week.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 15-1-8 +6.25
Round 4 2-0
As predicted the grind fest that was Dogs vs Rabbitohs played out.. low scoring game and we cash the UNDER.
Never looked in doubt. 1 more play to come tonight. GL
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Nice work mate, hopefully the under can come through again tonight.
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On fire TG, the bad beats are being evened out with some easily cashed plays
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I'm on Storm -7.5/UNDER 36. Let's get it!Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 15-1-9 +5.25
Round 4 2-1
Just a bad play for Broncos - Storm. The 5-0 streak comes to an end, hopefully we can cash some more winners tonight. GLComment -
Adding:
Play 4
Titans vs Panthers OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
No time for a write up. 2x loose sides and over looks goodComment -
Adding:
Play #5
Dragons vs Sharks UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95
No time for a were up. Apologies. Both teams averages way down and despite Dragons losing games they've managed to hit the UNDERS consistently.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 15-1-10 +4.25
Round 4 2-2
Who knew the Dragons had it in them!
Play #4 (as above)
Titans vs Panthers OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Thought this play deserved a write up. Panthers have been great at putting on points and are loose in defense. Titans stats are not impressive for the OVER but a closer look reveals they've played some very tight defensive teams in the opening rounds.. Sharks & Sea Eagles. If you smooth those stats out the OVER looks great for this game. Have it at 44pts on the model. Rolling 1x OVER. GL
Play #6
Knights vs Raiders OVER 42 1x 1.95
Knights at home have been impressive and they should put on a big score tonight. All we need is a few tries from the Raiders to seal this game. I think we see that. Conditions are also good for a free flowing game. Have this at 48pts and rolling 1x OVER 42. GL
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Panthers/Titans up to 42-43.. Your model has it at 44 but would you still play at those numbers or stay away?Comment -
Anyone know why they didnt attempt the 2pt conversion on the last try of the titans game?Comment -
The did attempt the conversion. The ball bounced off the post.Comment -
Dammnnn.. Had the over 38.5 in a multi that's looking like it'll hit otherwise!!Comment -
Adding:
Roosters vs Eels UNDER 42 2x 1.95
Apologies - having net probs and no time for a write up on iPhone. Game looks great for the UNDER on all aspects and model has it at 36.
First 2x play of the year. GLComment -
let's get this one
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Going to be tough to get 42 now, hopefully I can just before kickoff somewhere.Comment -
updated: NRL Season 2013 15-1-14 +0.25
End Round 4 2-5
It's not pretty but we grind on.. 3x plays decided by 2points or less. Can't say it's an almost win because a loss is a loss and variance come out to play.
Will be updating model this week to increase minimum requirement for a play.. only very strong leans as we keep things tight.Comment -
Frustrating as hell. NRL players cant seem to hold onto the ball this season & they're killing what normally would be easy money on overs. Agree with fewer plays - I'm going to cut down to 3-4 max per week. Good luck with round 5.
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XYZ you action junkie!!!
Some juicy match-ups this weekend.... just waiting for some early lines.Comment
