Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

UPDATED: Bonus CFL play (record 3-0) +3.80 UNITS

The streak continues - 100% record in CFL so far. Bombers were underrated in their match up against the Lions.
I hope everyone got involved.. more CFL plays when the opportunity knocks.

[aussieH]

Tailed the cfl pick. Great work.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 58-5-45 +10.54

Round 22

Play #1
Storm vs Rabbitohs OVER 36.5 1x 1.95
Getting a low total for two teams that have done well recently to hit a lot of points. Storm are back in the game after almost notching up an NRL record of 70+ points last week against the Raiders. Cronk and Cam Smith will be hard to contain for the Rabbitohs, especially with the loss of Sutton and Inglis up the back. Doesn't take much for the OVER to hit on this one. Model has it at 44pts and rolling 1x OVER. GL

[MatI]

Hey TG, its been raining fairly hard in Melbourne all morning. Do you think this is why total is set low?

[That Guy]

Hey TG, its been raining fairly hard in Melbourne all morning. Do you think this is why total is set low?

Yeah that would be factored into it. Without rain I'd suspect it would be 40.5 given recent stats from sides.. Forecast I have says rain clearing this afternoon and drainage is pretty good at the venue.
Good luck!

[OZnBa Fan]

NRL Season 2013 58-5-45 +10.54

Round 22

Play #1
Storm vs Rabbitohs OVER 36.5 1x 1.95
Getting a low total for two teams that have done well recently to hit a lot of points. Storm are back in the game after almost notching up an NRL record of 70+ points last week against the Raiders. Cronk and Cam Smith will be hard to contain for the Rabbitohs, especially with the loss of Sutton and Inglis up the back. Doesn't take much for the OVER to hit on this one. Model has it at 44pts and rolling 1x OVER. GL

Sportsbet still have this at 36.0 other books out to 37.5

[aussieH]

Rained up until early afternoon but a bloody cold day in melbourne. Grounds today drain pretty quick so surface should be good.

[Mase of Base]

I usually fade the steam in NRL but for some reason jumped on this. Feel very lucky to be in with a shot but think it's all up to the Storm in this one.

If anyone has Souths at the spread I would highly recommend buying out (I haven't bothered checking lines nor do I care), they don't look like scoring and possibly (probably) won't score again. Their only try was a gift after the linesman somehow called that guy in the field of play (he was a mile out!) after which they scored from a kick, aint doing that again.

C'mon Melbourne rack up the points!

[Mase of Base]

Ah dammit knew I shouldn't of gone against my system! Shoulda gone over but hey that's NRL it happens.

At least I hope I saved a couple of guys some money on Souths, that really was as easy as it gets in the second half. Those overated bums went for two! I laughed and they got flogged as they should. Remember folks (yes they have a forward pack which is solid but other than that) it's all media hype this team is going nowhere and it was more than proved tonight, oh and Manly hammer the Storm next week they're also overated.

Sorry to hijack the thread just my thoughts.

[sando]

Ah dammit knew I shouldn't of gone against my system! Shoulda gone over but hey that's NRL it happens.

At least I hope I saved a couple of guys some money on Souths, that really was as easy as it gets in the second half. Those overated bums went for two! I laughed and they got flogged as they should. Remember folks (yes they have a forward pack which is solid but other than that) it's all media hype this team is going nowhere and it was more than proved tonight, oh and Manly hammer the Storm next week they're also overated.

Sorry to hijack the thread just my thoughts.

Media hype? How can you say that? They have the best halves combo in the NRL. They have the best forward pack in the NRL and they have the best individual player in the NRL, and no I'm not a Souths fan.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Media hype? How can you say that? They have the best halves combo in the NRL. They have the best forward pack in the NRL and they have the best individual player in the NRL, and no I'm not a Souths fan.

Mase is underrating Souths but you're overrating them, I would disagree with all of that.

[Mase of Base]

I'm a Manly fan for the record.

You think Sutton and Reyonlds id the best halves combo in the league? I fully stand by my comment and am willing to back that with money within reason. To say I have no idea I do find rather insulting as I follow the competition extremely closely. I think Souths finish 3rd at best (I think 4th and very real chance of 5th) and do nothing in the playoffs.

You are more than welcome to bump this post should my obviously bemusing to you post come into fruition, but we will see. Good luck to you I enjoy your write ups and picks keep it up, you have a fantastic read on all sports.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Wasn't wise of Manly to move this weeks game to Bluetounge, don't you fear a Warriors upset Mase?

[Mase of Base]

Wasn't wise of Manly to move this weeks game to Bluetounge, don't you fear a Warriors upset Mase?

It isn't a good idea no! But in saying that Manly got up at Eden Park which I had great joy at attending!

I'm born in NZ but have been following the league since before the Warriors were a club but have stayed loyal to Manly, sorry for the spiel but that's how I've followed league. The Warriors seem to trouble the Eagles but no I don't think this will be one of those times, haven't checked the total or spread so have no opinion on either. I think Manly win but I would never put money on either covering the spread as I enjoy watching both.

[angelo63]

Souths are just going through a slump, better to get it out of the way now and not collapse in the finals. They will play a final in Sydney and with Inglis back they will be very hard to beat at home against any opposition. The Rabbitohs have never won in melbourne and tonights score was a little flattering for the Storm. I saw a lot in thew Rabbits game tonight that showed me they will be up for a big finals series.

Psychology is one of the most important factors in a teams ability to win a Grand final, the Storm have the attitude as do the Sea Eagles, the Rabbitohs are getting there, if they had continued to run away with the minor premiership then everyone would have believed the premiership was already won, lessons were learnt tonight and if GI stays fit they will be very hard to hold out.

Maguire is an excellent coach, he has served his apprenticeship with Bellamy and has instilled a professional culture in a club that had lacked it for 40 years.

[MrXYZ]

That's exactly it, the professional culture is what separates the elite teams from everyone else. Storm, Manly and Roosters are the standouts this year.

[That Guy]

Apologies - got called out of town and had no access to the internet.. annoyed that I missed a few games.

Adding:

Play #2
Bulldogs vs Titans OVER 44.5 2x 1.95
Titans away from home record is disastrous and they've hit all but 1 OVER in all away from home games. Bulldogs at home should be too strong with Williams and Kasiano providing some muscle up front. We've also got a Titans team that will be fired up to keep the winning streak alive after belting the Tigers last week - they need to win almost every game to make the finals. Have this game at 51pts and rolling 2x OVER. GL

[sando]

Mase is underrating Souths but you're overrating them, I would disagree with all of that.

You can debate a handful of different halves pairing's as the best in the game, however how is Inglis not the best individual player in the game?? How is their pack not the best in the NRL? Yes the Bulldog's and the Shark's have great packs as well, however South's have the worlds best forward (Sam Burgess) the world's second best hooker (Luke), two rep level players in the 2nd row (T'eo, McQueen), former NZ captian Asotasi coming off the interchange and of course the Burgess twins. I recently wrote an article rating the best pack's in the NRL and I had South's #1, Cronulla #2, Canterbury #3 and Easts #4.

[Dr.Gonzo]

You can debate a handful of different halves pairing's as the best in the game, however how is Inglis not the best individual player in the game?? How is their pack not the best in the NRL? Yes the Bulldog's and the Shark's have great packs as well, however South's have the worlds best forward (Sam Burgess) the world's second best hooker (Luke), two rep level players in the 2nd row (T'eo, McQueen), former NZ captian Asotasi coming off the interchange and of course the Burgess twins. I recently wrote an article rating the best pack's in the NRL and I had South's #1, Cronulla #2, Canterbury #3 and Easts #4.

No, I don't think you can. DCE and Foran are better than the Souths pairing and proven in finals football. You could make the case that the Souths pairing were the form pivots of the competition earlier in the season but would you still think that way? I wouldn't. Because he isn't SBW or Cameron Smith. Inglis was outperformed by Smith in all the finals games I've seen them play. SBW is just a freak talent.

Problem with Souths pack is they struggle with Melbourne's control in the ruck. I personally doubt they can compete with an up tempo attacking team in Easts as well, they'll gas with a even share of the ball. Squirrel is the best forward in the game? You're taking the piss, not even close. Neither is Luke the second best hooker but even if I accept he is, he doesn't stand out above his competition so there's no significant gain here. At best Luke's a poor man's Danny Buderus. T'eo, McQueen and the Burgess twins are good players but I suspect your opinion of them is a little higher. Asotasi is former NZ captain for a reason, he's bog average.

Goodluck with your wager on Souths against Manly this week, I'll be on the other side.

Please link me to the article if you don't mind.

[sando]

No, I don't think you can. DCE and Foran are better than the Souths pairing and proven in finals football. You could make the case that the Souths pairing were the form pivots of the competition earlier in the season but would you still think that way? I wouldn't. Because he isn't SBW or Cameron Smith. Inglis was outperformed by Smith in all the finals games I've seen them play. SBW is just a freak talent.

Problem with Souths pack is they struggle with Melbourne's control in the ruck. I personally doubt they can compete with an up tempo attacking team in Easts as well, they'll gas with a even share of the ball. Squirrel is the best forward in the game? You're taking the piss, not even close. Neither is Luke the second best hooker but even if I accept he is, he doesn't stand out above his competition so there's no significant gain here. At best Luke's a poor man's Danny Buderus. T'eo, McQueen and the Burgess twins are good players but I suspect your opinion of them is a little higher. Asotasi is former NZ captain for a reason, he's bog average.

Goodluck with your wager on Souths against Manly this week, I'll be on the other side.

Please link me to the article if you don't mind.

Smith is a better player than Inglis? That's hilarious, obviously you're the one taking the piss. He is probably the best leader in the world, but don't get that confused with being the best player.

Who said I'm playing Souths? I also like Manly. Clearly you have issues with South Sydney, that's your problem. I'm a Raiders fan, I have no dog in this fight, I simply call it as I see it.

I disagree with pretty much everything you've said so strongly that it is completely pointless even continuing this discussion.

Good luck with your plays in the future.

Mr. Gold - sorry for cluttering your thread.

[angelo63]

No, I don't think you can. DCE and Foran are better than the Souths pairing and proven in finals football. You could make the case that the Souths pairing were the form pivots of the competition earlier in the season but would you still think that way? I wouldn't. Because he isn't SBW or Cameron Smith. Inglis was outperformed by Smith in all the finals games I've seen them play. SBW is just a freak talent.

Problem with Souths pack is they struggle with Melbourne's control in the ruck. I personally doubt they can compete with an up tempo attacking team in Easts as well, they'll gas with a even share of the ball. Squirrel is the best forward in the game? You're taking the piss, not even close. Neither is Luke the second best hooker but even if I accept he is, he doesn't stand out above his competition so there's no significant gain here. At best Luke's a poor man's Danny Buderus. T'eo, McQueen and the Burgess twins are good players but I suspect your opinion of them is a little higher. Asotasi is former NZ captain for a reason, he's bog average.

Goodluck with your wager on Souths against Manly this week, I'll be on the other side.

Please link me to the article if you don't mind.

Interesting debate, I love the nickname squirrelly for big Sam , right on the button that one. My two cents , is that both arguments have valid points. DCE and Foran are the proven dynamic duo , they are edging out Reynolds and Sutton on experience in big games. Luke is the key though, he can destroy an opposition in the last 15 mins of a half with the super explosive bursts coming off quick play the balls from Squirell , his brother etc. it is a very open competition and four genuine chances are all in it at this stage . The closeness of this comp assures value in the finals , knowing who is going to click on the night is going to be hard at judge.
Inglis is in career best form , the fact he will be involved in each set of six carting the ball back up gives him more exposure and therefore his impact on his team winning is magnified ( SBW as wonderful a player he is is still not involved all the time.) Inglis is on a mission , for himself, for his family , for his club and most importantly for his brothers . He wants to be the main man in bringing the title back to its spiritual home and his motivation can be seen in his reinvigorated running of the ball. Every superstar has a season in which the define who they are this year I see it being GI 's turn . Slater and Smith have done it for more than most can even dream of. Having said that I have only backed Manly at 7.00 to win the flag . A win by Manly on Friday will ensure I get a better price for the Rabbits to win the flag, there are some crazy price fluctuations on bet fair on the premiership market during finals games its well worth having a look at.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Smith is a better player than Inglis? That's hilarious, obviously you're the one taking the piss. He is probably the best leader in the world, but don't get that confused with being the best player.

Who said I'm playing Souths? I also like Manly. Clearly you have issues with South Sydney, that's your problem. I'm a Raiders fan, I have no dog in this fight, I simply call it as I see it.

I disagree with pretty much everything you've said so strongly that it is completely pointless even continuing this discussion.

Good luck with your plays in the future.

Mr. Gold - sorry for cluttering your thread.

No, I say Cameron Smith is the better player on the basis of his performances in finals football. He was the better player for the Storm on every occasion, he was the better player against Souths. Cameron Smiths finals football performances is on another level to Inglis. Also said SBW is better.

It would be logical to take Souths based on your arguments, I don't see how you can make those assertions and then pass on + money. I'm not an Easts fan, I'm a Dragons fan. I don't have "issues" with teams that effect my judgment, that's why I bet Canberra against us. My biggest "issue" is actually with Newcastle but you wouldn't know judging my my comments because it doesn't influence me.

Why? There's more to be learned in disagreement than a circle jerk, I'm interested in hearing a response.

I'm sure Guy doesn't mind discussion.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 58-5-47 +8.54

Round 23

Play #1
Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs UNDER 38 2x 1.95
No time for a write up.. Apologies. Have this game at 30pts and rolling 2x. GL

[aussieH]

Great play tg. How are those Canadian football plays going.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 59-5-47 +10.44

Round 23 1-0
Solid UNDER despite a late scare with Rabbits running in a few tries...

[That Guy]

Great play tg. How are those Canadian football plays going.

Good... eyeing off a play tonight. If it pans out I'll post in a few hours!
GL mate

[That Guy]

Bonus CFL play (record 3-0) +3.80 UNITS
Adding:

Play #4
Winnipeg vs Hamilton TOTAL UNDER 53 1x 1.95
Both teams the most inconsistent in the CFL and for this to go OVER we need them both to 'click'. Winnipeg has a new QB starting (their 3rd) and are under pressure to win at home for the first time. This is a defensive game for mine and both sides will struggle with points. There is a history of low scoring match-ups with these two sides. Rolling 1x UNDER 53 to keep the CFL winning streak alive. GL

[aussieH]

Bad luck. I think that lost in the last few minutes.

[rohan22no]

anything for tonight TG?

[s2230011]

Where have you been hiding mate ?

[hjrozay]

Where have you been hiding mate ?

It looks like he has been caught up with his work? I'm pretty sure he mentioned earlier in the thread he has been overseas.

Hopefully comes back for the final round + finals, but even so he has had a positive season.

[aussieH]

Where are you TG. Trust all is good. You been quiet for a few weeks

[garygroundwork]

What ever happened to That Guy?

U still with us son.

Rl about to start

[aussieH]

He knew his NRL for sure.