Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

Pinny currently has the Storm total under 41.5.

Hope you smashed it

[aussieH]

Any late action plays on the final game. Good work on year so far as well

[hawley]

Loved that under when I saw Cronk out.

Nice call.

[That Guy]

2x winning plays. Laying low on Warriors / Roosters- have it as a slight UNDER but books pretty sharp on this one.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 45-3-32 +13.34

Round 14 2-2

Great to hit a 3x play ontop of a 1x play today
Looking at one last play tomorrow for MNF... more tomorrow.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 45-3-32 +13.34

Round 14 2-2

Play #5
Broncos vs Tigers UNDER 43.5
Broncos have the same side that was belted by the Raiders last week and have now slumped to three straight losses. Tigers on the other hand are on the up & up despite a host of injuries. Tigers are likely to have a few late comers tonight to sure up the defense - Lawrence, Tedesco and Fulton. Both sides are limp in attack and I'm banking on strong defense reliant on penalties and turnovers for this one.
Have it at 38pts and rolling 1x UNDER 43.5. GL

[rohan22no]

damn, where did you get 43.5?? I can only see 42 :s still worth it??

[angelo63]

Acttab is Under 43.5

[rohan22no]

tks angelo

[aussieH]

Where is thatguy

[angelo63]

Where is thatguy

He has flown to Brisbane to ask Scott Prince what he is on , because couldn't kick a goal for Shyte until the 80th minute of the game on Monday night.
Just one of those game where variance slaps us in the face, at least its over.

[That Guy]

He has flown to Brisbane to ask Scott Prince what he is on , because couldn't kick a goal for Shyte until the 80th minute of the game on Monday night.
Just one of those game where variance slaps us in the face, at least its over.

haha... almost!
Variance is a b!tch sometimes

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 45-3-33 +12.34

Round 15

Play #1
Tigers vs Raiders UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
Tigers spine looks pretty ordinary without Robbie Farah and Aaron Woods in Origin means they'll be lacking up front as well. Raiders are without Papalii and Ferguson which leaves them a little lighter on... unless the defense falls apart we're left with two sides that lack any serious points via attacking bite. Up until they got belted by the Broncos last week, Tigers defense has held up pretty well.. and the Raiders have a low PPG against figure. Without serious game changers on either side we should see a total around 36 but it could be much lower. Rolling 1x UNDER 42.5 for this one. GL

[Crowing Capers]

great call. never in Doubt

[That Guy]

great call. never in Doubt

Cheers mate!

[swordsandtequila]

[That Guy]

Adding:
Play #2
Eels vs Rabbitohs OVER 40 1x 1.95
Eels will be desperate to win this one and it's the best chance they'll have for a long time. However they're poorly disciplined and won't stay focused for the entire 80mins. Defense poor for both sides in this one. Have it at 32pts and rolling 1x OVER 40x.
GL

[Vinnie Paz]

If you have it at 32 why bet over 40? Other variables that aren't factored into the model I assume?

[swordsandtequila]

Adding:
Play #2
Eels vs Rabbitohs OVER 40 1x 1.95
Eels will be desperate to win this one and it's the best chance they'll have for a long time. However they're poorly disciplined and won't stay focused for the entire 80mins. Defense poor for both sides in this one. Have it at 32pts and rolling 1x OVER 40x.
GL

Gotta assume that's a typo, should read 42?

[Lui]

Line dropped to 37.5 @ Pinny.

[That Guy]

Gotta assume that's a typo, should read 42?

Sorry - typo. Should have said 42.

[aussieH]

Good call thatguy. You are killin it.

[rohan22no]

Great work again TG!

[swordsandtequila]

[Crowing Capers]

[That Guy]

Good call thatguy. You are killin it.

Great work again TG!

Cheers Hope you got below 40pts unlike me!

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2013 46-4-33 +13.29

Round 15 1-1-0
Hope everyone got the lower total last night of 38-39.5 for PAR/SOU.. literally dropped just after I put my bet thru.
So, counting this as a push but for the majority it will be a win.
Hopefully can keep the dream alive - working on a final play for MNF and will post soon. GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 46-4-33 +13.29

Round 15 1-1-0

Play #3
Storm vs Titans UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Storm are without all the big guns and have a shocking record at Origin time - winning just 1 match of 11 when the big trio of Smith, Cronk & Slater are missing. Their PPG figure during these games is even worse with an avg of just 12pts. Titans are missing Myles and Bird but they're replaced by defensively strong Minichiello and Douglas. Have this game at 32 on the model which is a 1x play UNDER at 38.5. GL

[Coopertrooper]

All over it TG, GL!

[Domestic]

Put a unit on it, best of luck team.

[theballsflop]

Very impressive analysis and work TG, I have no knowledge in this field, was good sifting through your thought / betting process.

[aussieH]

Under 38.5 at $2.00 on tab sportsbet (vic)

[Mase of Base]

Phew happy to get out of that half with just the twelve points. Titans look very likely very surprised the scores are tied, hopefully the Storm can manage to contain those Gold Coast quicks when they start getting tired.

[rohan22no]

A couple of second half tries making us sweat, but the under still looking very good. Another great write up and play TG!

[ExodusNZ]

Awesome mate