Thatguy's NRL Plays

[ULTRANORTH]

This is not going to end well....

[That Guy]

This is not going to end well....

Preparing myself for the onslaught of haters if this game heads south.. haha
Can only make plays on the info at hand - if you disagree or have doubts then lay off it.

[hawley]

You are up plenty of units. If posters had tailed you from the start of the season they are in a good position regardless of the outcome in this game.

[ULTRANORTH]

No hate mate, I just disagree lol, we can't all be the same and share the same opinions

[That Guy]

No hate mate, I just disagree lol, we can't all be the same and share the same opinions

yeah it's all good mate.. wasn't referring to you when I meant 'haters'
Will never shout anyone down who disagrees and has a point to make (which you did). Feel free to add your opinion anytime.
GL tonight - I just disagree lol

[benrama]

If it wasn't Monday night this would be a 5x play for me, I've watched what feels like nearly every Cronulla game - when they play disciplined defenses they struggle, they are really not a creative side and rely on defense, good kicking, positional play and the other team to make mistakes. I'd be shocked if they scored more than 3 tries tonight.

The big variable in this is the kicking game in the wind, Carney is good at getting the ball in the right spot at the right time, a few lucky bounces and we could see the under become a nail biter.

MNF just always seems to throw a curve ball, so I just can't bring myself to lay more than 1-2x on a total play.

I do however like melbourne 13+ as a value bet, there's a home semi final still up for grabs, an the storm seem to always play well in MNF - and the opposite for sharks.

[snufflyjoe]

Went the under and storm -7.5 for 4.00

[easysaid]

Cashed!!!!! cant see these two teams scoring 28 points in one half, congratulations mate well played.

[hawley]

Cashed!!!!! cant see these two teams scoring 28 points in one half, congratulations mate well played.

you watched much footy? far from over..

[jbart28]

Not over but I like our chances

[dRavidC]

yep it's never over until it's actually over. we've seen in the nrl where 3-4 tries can be scored in the space of 10 minutes out of nowhere. but at the moment the game is going just as we predicted.

[Crowing Capers]

Farkkk the haters TG
35 units up this far this season
Respect that
Let's get this 1 home now
Need 2 try's in last 8 mins to finish us

[hawley]

Sika Manu is on the under large.

[Wilfred]

Oh god

[hawley]

wow.


Again we are reminded the NRL is an 80 minute league.

[Wilfred]

Hahah didn't convert. 20-18 Final. Hopefully most people got the .5

[sweepem]

too bad Cameron Smith can't kick.

[benandjerry]

they really had to make you sweat didnt they... was on the under small already, shame I didnt check your thread would've added more

hope you guys had 38.5 or higher

[jbart28]

Ah the hook is in our favor. Cash that ticket. Nice call TG

[Bazz27]

wow doesnt get much closer thatguy well done to finish with mnf

[Astros148]

lol can someone tell me what happened at the very end??

[benrama]

FK me that was a sweat! Variance on our side tonight, that game should have gone over, on any other night with semi decent handling Melbourne scores 30+.

But we will take it, nice work TG!

[Wilfred]

lol can someone tell me what happened at the very end??

Storm got a try at the 78' then again at the 79'

[Astros148]

Storm got a try at the 78' then again at the 79'

thanks wow lol

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 109-1-91 +40.07
Round 25 5-1-2

Wow.. on a game that never looked like going OVER it certainly looked like going OVER in the last 10mins.
Variance on our side and a WIN is a win
The revised goal was 40 units for the season.. achieved that. Will push on with more plays next week will the aim of grinding away more wins. No crazy plays.
Have a good week. Back at it Friday.

[Jesus Christ]

[That Guy]

Some great looking early lines out at the moment.. having a look and might possibly post some plays in a few hours

[nosaij]

nice work ari gold

[Bazz27]

TG, we've had a good yr, thanks n now its R/26 coming up to fin our reg season. Will u be covering sept semis too n would u ever look at afl or US totals in other sports, its a dam long aussie off season over here mate.. cheers

[That Guy]

TG, we've had a good yr, thanks n now its R/26 coming up to fin our reg season. Will u be covering sept semis too n would u ever look at afl or US totals in other sports, its a dam long aussie off season over here mate.. cheers

Hey mate.. yeah I'll cover the finals all the way up to the GF. Might throw in some Toyota Cup plays as well if there is value (normally is because there is lack of volume).
Was doing NBA totals last year, but every man and his dog is doing them on SBR.. possibly better then what I could. Late game changes makes it hard to cover given the time differences. So I'll probably lay off that and enjoy the off season.

[That Guy]

Totals not swinging the way thought they would for tomorrow night... Will wait until all the other books open with totals and post plays tomorrow 3-4hrs before the game.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 109-1-91 +40.07

Round 26
Time to finish the regular season on a high..


Play #1
Broncos vs Panthers UNDER 44 1x 1.95
Broncos will be switched on tonight and need to win this match, they're acutely aware the Panthers ended the Titans finals hopes and destroyed the Warriors in NZ. Expect safety first football from the Broncos to contain the Panthers and chip away at the scoreline. They have stated that trying to out-score the Panthers is not a game plan tonight - which is any wonder because tehy've had trouble finding the try line. Broncos highest score over the past 6 weeks is just 22points and that was against the Eels. Panthers have been great defensively towards the end of the year and holding teams to 10-20 pt score lines. Model has this game at 36points which looks pretty good.. even if the Broncos fire they shouldn't score above the 24pt margin.
Ground is wet at Suncorp from rain last night and chance of rain (20%) tonight is a bonus not factored into the total.
Rolling on this for 1x UNDER 44. GL


Play #2
Knights vs Rabbitohs OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
You get the feeling these teams have been way too quiet over the past few weeks and have faced tough opposition. Knights attack normally matches the opposing team and with the Rabbitohs playing expansive football you'd expect the Knights to follow suit. There are way too many attacking weapons in this side and both teams are down on points avgs over the past 4 weeks. We'd normally see a total of 44-45 for these teams, so we should be getting some value tonight. Rabbitohs are out to play some morale boosting football and the Knights want to end the year on a high.. it's a crunch game but not to the extent of the Broncos who need to win to make finals. Should be more free flowing with model predicting arounf 46pts. Rolling on the OVER for 1x GL


Bonus (not counted in NRL totals)

Toyota Cup: Knights vs Rabbitohs -4 1x 1.92 *kick off 5.20pm
Important game for the Rabbitohs against the lowly Knights who are out of the finals race. However, Rabbitohs are in the hunt for a top 8 finish and need a win tonight to secure a spot. The switch off factor for under 21's is huge at the end of the year and expecting the Knights to turn out the lights tonight. Rabbitohs have a strong side that has put on 40+ scores over the past few weeks and they have a solid halfback / big forward pack with the younger Burgess brother.
Rolling with this as a side play for 1x. GL

[That Guy]

Rabbitohs def. Knights in Toyota Cup 50-26

Adding: 1x unit on Knights vs Rabbitohs OVER 40.5
TOTAL 2x OVER at 40.5

Weather looks like holding off with not much rain

GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 110-1-92 +39.02

Round 26 1-1
Knights game tracking in the right direction at half time but fell apart in the second half.. damn
Still 2-1 for the night with the Toyota Cup play (not counted in totals).
Some good plays on the board tomorrow.

[swordsandtequila]

A win is a win, they all count in my book