on the under in that game too, as well as the over in dogs/knights and over in sea eagles/cowboys. the lines have been nasty lately, sticking to totals is the way to go. GL with your plays
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NRL Season 2012 91-77 +27.29
Round 22 1-0
Play #3
Knights vs Bulldogs OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Model for this game has it as a modest OVER at 41pts, however if you put further weight on the last 6 weeks it jumps up to 58pts. Both these sides have been killing it over the past few months. Bulldogs are the 2nd best attacking side thanks to Ben Barba and the Knights are vastly improved - top side in attack over the past 6 rounds. This should be a try fest and the home advantage to the Knights pushes the total over edge. Rolling with this for 1x OVER 40.5 at 1.95 GL
Play #4
Cowboys vs Sea Eagles OVER 42.5 2x 1.95
These two sides have a big history of OVERS and tonight is no exception. Perfect conditions and sides for a big match with a big score. Sea Eagles physical forward pack should push the Cowboys into action thru Thurston and Bowen who have been playing solidly. The Sea Eagles lapse of concentration in matches has been great for opposing sides.
Model has this game at 46pts and with both sides naming strong sides I'm rolling with this for 2x 1.95. GL
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Thanks for the points Bazz27.. not sure they were deserved tonight though!
Updated: NRL Season 2012 91-80 +23.29
Round 22 1-3
Variance really biting with 2x games stalling in the last 5-10mins of play and really making a difference to the total. Cowboys / Sea Eagles was just a bad call in the end and will look closer into those figures.
Tomorrow we cash some!
GL
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NRL Season 2012 91-80 +23.29
Round 22 1-3
Time to punish the books!
Play #5
Warriors vs Sharks UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Sharks have been carved up the middle of the park making their defensive average look dodgy, but with the return of Smith & Gallen they should be solid. When those two and Carney play the team is very solid and hard to squeeze points out of. Last time they met the total was 39points and today we have similar conditions in NZ to their last game - wet conditions and almost the same sides. Big difference is NZ are missing several key attacking players. Have this game at 40pts on the model but the return on Smith & Gallen should buy the Sharks some much needed defence up the middle.
Rolling this play for 1x at 1.95. GL
Play #6
Raiders vs Broncos UNDER 45.5 3x 1.95
Don't often roll 3 unit plays but this game looks perfect for an UNDER. Broncos are missing several key attacking players and their focus this week at training has been on defence, defence, defence. Raiders are in the same position and miss several big players today. This either turns into a slopfest with lots of tries or a grind out win by the side that defends best - it should be the latter. Both sides were heavily critical on their jersey-grabbing defence last week and this week should be much improved. Model has this game at 38points but the potential for a much lower score based on the past 6 weeks stats is promising.
Rolling for a 3 unit play on the UNDER at 45.5. GL
Play #7
Titans vs Rabbitohs OVER 42.5 1x 1.95
Both sides have been in fine attacking form and this game ends up a shoot out between Scott Prince & Adam Reynolds.
Looking at stats from last 6 weeks the total should hit 48 points +. Titans have been playing more attacking football and have been quoted during the week saying they need to "out score the Rabbitohs to win". Titans history against attacking sides trends very strongly towards the OVER and weather conditions today are perfect. GL
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Thanks guy lets do this
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updated:NRL Season 2012 92-82 +24.14
Round 22 2-5
Great to cash the big 3 unit play on Raiders vs Broncos UNDER.. unfortunate to miss the other plays by only 2.5 and 4.5 points.
Finished the day positive so can't complain. MNF play still to come..Comment -
Decent weekend. Really tough one tonight pal.
Two teams currently going in different directions, but its the current wooden spooners who have come to life.
From what I have heard and can tell, all the money has been on the Eels, yet we're seeing some movement towards the Tigers. I don't get that... Any thoughts on this one?Comment -
Never know what you're going to get - especially with these sides. I lean Tigers because they need this win so much and have Galloway / Moltzen back in the side. Eels have played some weak inury-ridden sides in the last few matches as well. If Canberra can roll the Broncos then it makes the Eels victory look more opportunistic then impressive. Tigers track record at Campbelltown is pretty damn good... but I'd rather bet which medal Kazakstan will win then play the sides in this match. Focus on the total instead for this one... just waiting for confirmed line ups. GL mateComment -
I noticed that too..
"Ben Hawes of sportsbet.com.au said the money is running about four to one in favour of the Eels with plenty of money also coming for the Eels to score a big win after they stunned Brisbane 42-22 last Monday night."
http://www.sportal.com.au/bz-opinion...-tigers-191323
It seems the books don't agree with the punters on this one.Comment -
Pinny juicing the over albeit only slightly, only play I'm interested in tonight.Comment -
NRL Season 2012 92-82 +24.14
Round 22 2-5
Play #8
Tigers first score 1x 1.72
This stood out at me.. Tigers have the 2nd best stat for 'first score' and out of these sides they've scored first 6 out of the last 7 games.
Generally they are not first try scorers against heavy attacking sides and have been beaten to the try line first by the Bulldogs and Bulldogs more recently. Out of all the exotics (which I rarely play) this one really stood out.
Rolling for 1x on the Tigers first try scorers. GL
Play #9
Tigers vs Eels UNDER 44.5 2x 2.00
Tigers need to defend well to win this match, it's almost their last chance to have any hope of making the finals. Motivation is the big factor in this match and Eels coming off the win will give them some confidence to step up and stop the flow of points. The return of Galloway is a massive boost to the UNDER on the back of his solid defense which has been sorely missed. Beau Ryan moving to the centres alos plugs up defensive holes that have been exposed in recent weeks. Eels pts avg is massive but they've had a good run against injury ravaged Broncos and Storm - they shouldn't have that luxury tonight.
Expecting a close game with the Tigers playing some safe football to start and closing the game out. Model has the game at 38points with Moltzen returning for the Tigers. Rolling 2x UNITS on the UNDER. GL
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Money keeps pouring in for the Eels. I got a "Tigers $1.53 To Beat The Eels!" email from Centrebet.Comment -
yeah I'm not sure about that... how reliable are these stats?
They come from the books and books want money. period. If 80% of money was on the Tigers would they still be pumping them as a big favourite and lose out?.. I'm not sure.
Also the line moving 2points since Friday away from the Eels suggests otherwise.Comment -
Centrebet wants you to bet Tigers that says it allComment -
I wasn't saying that the comments were necessarily true, more that they sound like they want more money on Eels. If they are trying to make the Eels look like the play, then I would be looking at Tigers.
Having said that, if Centrebet are encouraging Tigers, then I would think Eels are the side to play!
I just thought it was interesting, im not actually going to take a side.Comment -
I don't get those emails anymore and I don't know why. I should be subscribed. It'd be good if you could post them each week if you get the time. Line on this one was confusing. I ended up on the Eels for action despite my better sense saying to stay away. I'm glad I didn't now...Comment -
Well.. At least we die wondering if the total hits tonight or not!Comment -
Fading Centrebet seems to be definitely +EV, mind you with this game any bloody thing could happen, this is touch footy.
Much more $ is following the steam on Pinny in totals, it's been phenomenal the last month or so - it needs to be though, the juice means you need to be hitting much better than 53%. Probably a better strategy is to give up a half-point or point on an Aussie book and get closer to $1.92+ odds.Comment -
I've also been hitting totals at Sportsbet lately. Sometimes their numbers are 1-2 points off other books. Great value for overs, last week they had Broncos/Parra 38.5 while everyone else posted 40.5.Comment -
Yea pays to have multiple books, I just can't be assed any more having my money spread all over the place. Plus with Aussie books I get too tempted by those degenerate PYOL multi's
Next year though if the Pinny steam continues to be solid I think I'll have to do it.Comment -
updated end round: NRL Season 2012 93-83 +22.86
Round 22 3-6
Worst week so far this season - no escaping that.
Variance playing it's part with 4 totals losing by less then 5pts.. just goes to show how important line shopping is. Unfortunately we also had 2 of the biggest blow outs this year so far. A total of only 14pts for 2 of the best attacking sides in the comp and a total over 60 for two of the worst wasn't to be expected.
Still well on track to meet the goal of 30units profit for the season.
GL this week... back at it on Friday
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Pinny lean / steam on totals this season has been at 70% + easy.Comment -
NRL Season 2012 93-83 +22.86
Round 23
Apologies for the short writeups. Away from laptop and frustrating to do via iPhone
Play #1
Rabbitohs vs Sea Eagles UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
Grind out footy on a bad weather night and Rabbitohs missing GI will cost points. Have this game at 38pts but with the weather conditions (wind + rain) it gets pegged back to 32. GL
Play #2
Storm vs Titans OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Storm should have it all over the Titans but the impressive stat is that during the past 3 seasons the Storm defeat the Titans by an average of 28pts.
Titans will be playing for a finals position and should be ready to lay on some expansive football. Have this game at 42pts and rolling 1x GL
Play #3
Storm first points 2x 1.59
In the last 9 games between these sides the Titans have only scored first once. The away stat for the Titans is also shocking.. Scoring first only 38% of the time. Money is on the Storm putting points in the board first. Rolling 2x at 1.59... If you're willing to narrow it down to a 'try' and not points you can hit it at 1.79. GLComment -
Great work mate
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updated: NRL Season 2012 95-84 +22.76
Round 23 2-1
Great to nail the totals last night but unfortunate that the Storm didn't score first to put us up 3units +. Looked like it was in the bag after 2mins but wasn't to be..
Play #4
Eels vs Roosters UNDER 47.5 2x 1.95
Saw this total and jumped on it asap. Both teams defensive record is very average but the Roosters should be much stronger tonight with no injuries and added confidence with a win last weekend. We're getting almost the biggest total of the season on the windiest weekend in Sydney - expect it to cause havoc with the last tackle options and we'll certainly get much less conversions. For this game to go over we'll need 9-10 tries which is a big ask, even in a game with two defensively hopeless teams. Expect we'll see lots of bombed tries tonight and a total around 42. Locking this in for 2x at 1.95. Total of 47.5 is getting hammered and might not last. GL
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I like it the play.
I am also on Tigers v Dragons under 40.5Comment -
added:
Play #5
Tigers vs Dragons UNDER 40.5 1x 1.85
Desperation footy at it's best tonight and we should expect a much improved Tigers defensive line after the got embarrassed last week. All week the Tigers have been working of defensive drills, while the Dragons have been running attack options with the return of Soward. Expect safe football tonight in windy conditions, which are a massive bonus for the under - 80km'h winds at the stadium currently and two less than perfect goal kickers. Model has this game at 36pts but the weather factor makes this a play at 1x 1.95. GL
Play #6
Cowboys vs Warriors OVER 44.5 1x 1.95
Luck and Hurrell return to the Warriors this week to add some much needed spark in attack. They will be keen to make amends of last week's loss to the Sharks, while the Cowboys attack has been heavily criticised after last weekends low scoring affair. Expect to see two teams throwing the ball around and attacking the fringes. Total points from these sides have been heavily below average, but expect that to change tonight as both styles of football favour the OVER play. Model has this game at 48pts and there are no weather factors affecting this game. Rolling with 1x 1.95 for the OVER. GL
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added 1x unit to Cowboys / Warriors OVER for a total of 2units
Was waiting on final teams to make the call - James Maloney in the side is a massive gain. GLComment -
updated: NRL Season 2012 97-85 +23.51
Round 23 4-2
Grinding forward on a positive night cashing the 2x play on Cowboys OVER and the 1x on Dragons. Unfortunate to miss out on the Eels vs Roosters game after such a large total.. but a positive night is a good one!
GL tomorrow
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NRL Season 2012 97-85 +23.51
Round 23 4-2
Play #7
Panthers vs Raiders OVER 46 1x 1.95
Not much time for a write up. Two of the worst defensive teams and a large scoreline on the model.
GL
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added:
Play #8
Bulldogs vs Broncos UNDER 40.5 1x 2.25
Advanced stats show that the Broncos against top 8 teams concede very little points. Against the in form Bulldogs they will play a heavily defensive game and attempt to grind away errors. Even if this turns into a blow out, we should be safe with not too many points coming from the Broncos and be relying on a 30+ effort from the Bulldogs - while not out of the question it has rarely happened this year by the dogs. Some good defence by the Broncos and a continuation of their toothless attack sees this go UNDER. Model showing a total of around 36pts. GL
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