Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

You have any leans on a side?
My site doesnt hve totals

Cowboys -2.5 looks good... but with the way this round has gone - who knows!
totals much more reliable

[nikossf]

SOB 5dimes...POST THE TOTAL!

[benrama]

Liking North Queensland tonight, they've talked all week about revenge for round 12, and they played excellent last week against Melbourne and can ride that confidence into this week. If Graham wasn't injured I'd make this a large play on the Cowboys.

They kept Melbourne to three tries, all off kicks and I see no reason they can't frustrate the Tigers. I can easily see a 24-14 or 26-16 score line here, so not too keen on the over but will cheer for you anyway TG!

[hawley]

I personally can't read too much into that performance against the storm.

Melbourne have been struggling big time to score points recently - 10 against the eels is woeful

[angelo63]

Excellent work mate, Cows are my main chance to win it this year and tonight confirmed they are on the right path, The Broncos are my second pick and at this stage they both look like genuine top 4 chances, biggest danger would be Rabbits but with Luke and Inglis out for a few weeks things could change at Redfern. Ironic how Cooper scored by diving ona kick t give us the Over in the last minute, Variance is a bitch because he did the same thing against the Knights a while back and killed our under play after the siren.....I will be posting some of my own picks for the last 5 weeks now the Origin has done its damage, Only backed the Eels this week , I see a future in Laying the Raiders and Sharks whenver they are favs,they cant seem to cope wth the pressure of expectation , will do some research to see what their respective records are as favs over the last 5 years....

[SaffaCappa]

Top class stuff mate

[That Guy]

Excellent work mate, Cows are my main chance to win it this year and tonight confirmed they are on the right path, The Broncos are my second pick and at this stage they both look like genuine top 4 chances, biggest danger would be Rabbits but with Luke and Inglis out for a few weeks things could change at Redfern. Ironic how Cooper scored by diving ona kick t give us the Over in the last minute, Variance is a bitch because he did the same thing against the Knights a while back and killed our under play after the siren.....I will be posting some of my own picks for the last 5 weeks now the Origin has done its damage, Only backed the Eels this week , I see a future in Laying the Raiders and Sharks whenver they are favs,they cant seem to cope wth the pressure of expectation , will do some research to see what their respective records are as favs over the last 5 years....

Top class stuff mate

cheers guys!
Angelo - look forward to your picks mate

[That Guy]

Updated NRL Season 2012 85-72 +28.77
End Round 20 7-5
Great to cash almost 4 units on MNF. Thurston's field goal looked like it killed the OVER but worked in our favour in the end.
Much closer to the goal of 30units profit in the regular season.. not long to go now.
GL this week. Looking at nice UNDER play for Dragons / Storm - just hope the total is not too low.

[Crowing Capers]

Slamming MNF again TG
Great work
Cheers

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 85-72 +28.77
Round 21

Let's get this show on the road.. some great value games tonight to start off Round 21. GL

Play #1
Dragons vs Storm UNDER 36.5 2x 1.95
These teams have a history of low scoring games against one another and tonight is setup perfectly for the UNDER. Last time they played the line dropped to 32.5 before kick off.. while it probably won't go that low again 36.5 would be the limit to play at. If you can find it at 38.5 grab it while it lasts - game opened at 38.5 at 365 but looks to have disappeared.
Dragons need to focus on defense tonight to win this game after copping a beating from the Rabbitohs - during the week they mentioned this at training and we should expect a much tighter line. Storm have been struggling but the return of Slater tonight will give them a lift.. but having spend weeks out of the game we shouldn't expect him to blow the Dragons away. This is a crucial game for both sides and the Dragons at home would give us a low total. Have this at 32pts but the last 6 weeks has the total trending around 26pts - which is good for a 2x play on mine. GL


Play #2
Roosters vs Titans -2.5 1x 1.92
Titans with the inclusion of Greg Bird should be way too strong for the struggling Roosters. Scott Prince is in career best form and should be on fire tonight as the team attempts to gain momentum heading towards the end of the season. The Titans have been in Sydney since Wednesday morning preparing for this match and seem extremely focussed. On the other hand we have a Roosters side battling rumours of discontent with coach Brian Smith all week.. deny as they might the Roosters are keen to have the season over and done with.. battling the wooden spoon.
Titans should be way too big and powerful for the Roosters. They have a rookie on debut and look to get carved up on the fringes, Zillman should have a field day and prove too elusive for the home side. Motivational factor is a big one and the Titans have much more to play for. Model has them winning by 12-14points, even though I dislike playing sides I think there is a lot of value at -2.5. GL

[s2230011]

Thanks for the tips I like them both. I am looking at something a little left field and everytime I try something like that it backfires but might give this a go.
Sportsbet has completion rate markets, its 77.5% for Storm and 75.5% for Dragons. I looked at this cause I watching the Dragons they defend very well, but they dont push hard in defence. I get the impression they are not an agressive in your face defence. So I thought I will look at the figures.

Dragon opponents have had a higher than 77.5% completion rate the last 9 games in a row !! and since round 4 its a 12-3 run. So I thought maybe Storm's completion rates are not as good as I thought it would be. But the numbers showed the Storm complete a higher than 77.5% in 6 of the last 7 games and is 11-6 for the season.

Still playing it in my head but putting it out there.

[That Guy]

Thanks for the tips I like them both. I am looking at something a little left field and everytime I try something like that it backfires but might give this a go.
Sportsbet has completion rate markets, its 77.5% for Storm and 75.5% for Dragons. I looked at this cause I watching the Dragons they defend very well, but they dont push hard in defence. I get the impression they are not an agressive in your face defence. So I thought I will look at the figures.

Dragon opponents have had a higher than 77.5% completion rate the last 9 games in a row !! and since round 4 its a 12-3 run. So I thought maybe Storm's completion rates are not as good as I thought it would be. But the numbers showed the Storm complete a higher than 77.5% in 6 of the last 7 games and is 11-6 for the season.

Still playing it in my head but putting it out there.

Had a quick look at this and looks pretty good.. You're right about the Dragons - they defend well but fall back and don't normally force too many mistakes from the opposition. Focus on the Storm this week at training has been completing sets of 6 and getting kicks away (thanks Storm fan forum for the info).
Might be worth a small play. Never looked at this market before...

[dRavidC]

Good to see we both have the same plays loaded up for tonight. BOL!

Any quick thoughts on the bulldogs/cowboys & warriors/eagles?

[That Guy]

Good to see we both have the same plays loaded up for tonight. BOL!

Any quick thoughts on the bulldogs/cowboys & warriors/eagles?

GL tonight..
Leaning OVER for both of those games tomorrow - totals have just come out. Lean more OVER for Cowboys / Bulldogs even if halfback is missing. NZ / Sea Eagles - still waiting on Brett Stewart to be confirmed as playing.. is 50/50 at the moment but with him out it could be an UNDER play.. yet to run numbers.

[That Guy]

Soward ruled out for the Dragons.. UNDER looks very nice now!
down to 34.5 at 1.75 - looks like the ship has sailed

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 86-73 +27.69
Round 21 1-1

The Storm... continuing to make capping a mission. Just one of those games that went well against any trend with the Dragons on fire an Slater absolutely shocking. We clear the 30unit mark today!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 86-73 +27.69
Round 21 1-1

Play #3
Bulldogs vs Cowboys OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
We have the top 2 and 3 attacking sides in the comp tonight at close to full strength. Halfback Kris Keating is missing for the Bulldogs but it shouldn't affect the numbers too much. Model has this game at try fest tonight with 48pts and it should be a great hit out with lots of points. Rolling 1x the OVER 40.5. GL

Play #4
Sea Eagles vs Warriors UNDER 41.5 1x 1.95
Sea Eagles are focused on a defensive game tonight after leaking over 50pts from the last 2 games and should play controlled football tonight. Attention will be focused on the Warrior's weak left hand side but we shouldn't see a complete collapse. Have this game at 38pt and Brookvale factor brings to the total even lower to 36pts. Rolling with 1x UNDER 41.5. GL

Play #5
Sharks vs Panthers UNDER 38.5 2x 1.90
These two sides have been struggling to score any points and it shouldn't be a complete turn around tonight. Sharks will not embarrass themselves at home 2 weeks in a row and the coach has suggested tonight is all about defence & no frills football - great for the UNDER. Panthers stats are deceiving because they've had so many players return and are a much stronger side, especially in defence with their heavy forward pack. Model has this game at 37pts but taking into account the last 4 Panthers games more heavily it drops down to 34. Expecting a solid game from both sides - especially the Sharks who need a return to being one of the top 2 defensive sides in the comp.
Rolling with 2x because of motivational value on the adjusted Panthers stats.. they have a much better side tonight then previous beatings they have copped.
GL

[hawley]

Just a FYI the Warriors game is being played in Perth tonight!

Good luck.

[benrama]

Bulldogs have the best defense in the comp right now, and were simply relentless in keeping Manly out last weekend, so I'd be very surprised if this ended up a try fest by the NQ side - perhaps from the Bulldogs but you'll be relying on them to score at least 24-28 I think.

Eagles vs Warriors is in Perth, in normal circumstances I think that Manly's defense will be up for this one, however, I suspect the teams might be keen to put on a show for the WA audience.

I do however like the under on the Sharks game

[hawley]

Sharks are rumoured to be missing Gallen, Carney, Gibbs and Pomeroy.

Without Carney in particular I see them struggling to score.

[That Guy]

Just a FYI the Warriors game is being played in Perth tonight!

Good luck.

Cheers for the correction!
Updated spreadsheet last week but still have Brooky left on there.. neutral venue still gives a good result - so happy to roll with 1x

[benrama]

FYI Pinny juicing the over in Eagles v Warriors, down to $1.75

[aussieH]

Cheers for the tips. I tail every now and again and you certainly know your NRL

By the way do you use TASB sportsbet website. They have updated the site and it is a shocker.

[That Guy]

Cheers for the tips. I tail every now and again and you certainly know your NRL

By the way do you use TASB sportsbet website. They have updated the site and it is a shocker.

Don't normally use TASB but checked out their site.. wow. Hopefully improves a bit!

1-0 tonight with the Doggies giving us plenty of points. Game 2/3 - hopefully the Sharks defence returns to the glory days and we get a slow grind fest. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 87-75 +25.64
Round 21 2-3

Brutal. Just brutal!!
To have 2 games go OVER in the last 3mins... wow. Sharks live total with 20mins to play was 30pts and to have it die in the last 90secs - ouch. Right plays but variance buried it.
Still.. great to cash the 1st game I guess

[That Guy]

RL Season 2012 87-75 +25.64
Round 21 2-3


Play #6
Raiders -4.5 vs Knights 2x 1.92
The Raiders have been erratic but look to have this game under control with Dugan and Robinson a potent attacking machine. Raiders have a great record at home and the Knights will struggle against a big Raiders pack. Have the Raiders winning by 14pts on the model and rolling with 2x on the Raiders -4.5. GL


Play #7
Raiders vs Knights UNDER 49.5 1x 1.95
We'll get a large total but 49.5 is over cooking it a little bit too much for two highly erratic teams that surge as much in defence as they do attack. Knights will look to control this game by locking up the fringes.. if we can get a quiet 15-20mins this total cashes. Have it at 42points on the model which is where it opened earlier in the week - so we've got over 7pts of value.
GL

Play #8
Tigers vs Rabbitohs UNDER 46.5 1x 1.95
We have lots of players out of position on both sides but the big impact will be Greg Inglis & Issac Luke missing for the Rabbitohs - these two metre eaters will be sorely missed. They are replaced by solid defenders who should help the UNDER but add less in attacking sting, except for Nathan Merrit who is like for like with GI on stats. Tigers are all over the shop and look nowhere near as dangerous in previous matches and should offer much less in attack. Have this game at 38points. Rolling with 1x on the UNDER. GL

[That Guy]

Added:
Play #9
Tigers +12.5 vs Rabbitohs 1x 1.68
No time for a write up. But good value for a side taking on the Rabbitohs missing GI and Luke. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 89-77 +24.54
Round 21 4-5

Both games headed UNDER as predicted as the books over cooked the lines after being slammed on the OVERS in recent weeks.
Suggested a few weeks back that concentrating on totals going forward might be an option.. well after today that's what I'll be concentrating on almost solely - it's where the value lies with line movement and lack of volume.
5-1 for totals this week so far but with team plays we're just breaking even. Totals is where it's at moving forward and I'll be spending all my energy analyising that. Apologies if you can't access totals at your book - I will play the odd team pick but you probably won't see any before finals time.
Time to get a win on the board for MNF and turn it into a positive round. GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 89-77 +24.54
Round 21 4-5

Play #10
Broncos vs Eels OVER 38.5 2x 1.90
This total opened much higher mid week at 42.5 and is still 40.5 at some books. Despite the Broncos hitting the UNDERS the last few weeks they are still trending OVER for this match and shouldn't be starved of possession like previous games. They are missing several backline players but should be much too strong in the forwards but yet leak some points on the edges. Fine weather forecast is a massive bonus as the last few games in Brisbane have been in wet conditions. Have this at 42pts on the model and rolling with the OVER for 2x. GL

[That Guy]

updated End of Round:
NRL Season 2012 90-77 +26.34
Round 21 5-5

Great to cash the Broncos OVER nice and early.. gotta love OVERS like that!
Tough round with so many upsets - Totals are the play from now on which is what the model is setup for and more accurate.
GL this week. Next week looks great already.. some great games coming up

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 90-77 +26.34
Round 22

Some fantastic looking plays this weekend... starting with tonight

Play #1
Dragons vs Roosters UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Watching this total rise during the week from 36 at some books to 40.5 has been a gift. Soward not playing for the Dragons works against the UNDER and is probably the reason it has risen, however we should still have a donk-fest. Both these sides are dodgy in attack and rank in the bottom 5 avg points per game. The last 6 games for both teams has been way above average and should settle down to previous levels. We have the best side the Roosters could field with a full team on deck tonight. Dragons should find it much harder to break the defensive line and focus on completing sets of 6 for field position. Have this game at 34pts on the model and rolling 1x the UNDER. GL

[sweepem]

Great Pick as always. We were lucky in the end that the Roosters screwed up.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 91-77 +27.29
Round 22 1-0

Nice to get a win first up
Model prediction only 2pts off the final total is always good as well. Roosters and Dragons great ability to bomb tries kept this UNDER in check.
Some good totals around for tomorrow already.. doing some team checks and might post a little earlier. GL

[Vinnie Paz]

Followed on that under, thanks for that
Waiting on the rest pal

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 91-77 +27.29
Round 22 1-0

Play #2
Storm vs Panthers UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
We have two sides with very similar stats over the last 4 weeks - especially avg against and for. Penrith's forward pack has been dominating and should hold out the Storm to some extent. All we need is a quiet 10-15mins for this UNDER to cash and it should happen. Coach Bellamy was quoted at training this morning saying all he's looking for is a "simple game with nothing flashy and strong defence" - if we get that we get an UNDER. Past few games the Storm have tried too hard to pile on the points and it hasn't worked, this afternoon they just need a win more then ever. O'Neill returns to the side while Duffie has been ruled out. Norrie and Lowrie are into the starting line up, while Ryles and Hinchcliffe start from the bench.
Model has this game at 38pts which is tight but confidence at the Panthers is sky high - backing that we'll get some good defence in the middle of the park. Rolling with 1x the UNDER. GL


Plays for the other games tonight to come in a few hours.. waiting on final teams.