Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 98-86 +23.76
Round 23 5-3

Slowly grinding forward. Great to cash the UNDER on the Broncos after more then 80% of the market was on the OVER (apparently).. Unlucky that there was not 1 or 2 more tries in the first half of Panthers vs Raiders game.
One more play for MNF to come for the round. GL

[MrXYZ]

Nice work on the Bulldogs/Broncos under. Landed on 36 points as you predicted.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 98-86 +23.76
Round 23 5-3

Play #9
Knights vs Sharks UNDER 39.5 2x 1.95
Desperate game for both teams as the Knights need to win to stay alive and the Sharks are hungry to consolidate their place in the top 8. This should be a tight game with both teams playing to the book. Sharks were given praise for flogging the Warriors last week but the reality is they're already in off-season mode and any half decent team would have piled on points. Gibbs and Graham returning for the Sharks is a massive boost to defence and hopefully tonight we see a Sharks team in winning mode - low scoring and heavy defence. When these teams met previously and had almost the same sides the total was just 28pts. Tonight model has it at 34pts.
Rolling with 2x because the potential for less points is much more when you take out the previous Sharks floggings and Knights defensive collapses (shouldn't happen tonight). 2x 1.95 for the UNDER 39.5. GL

[That Guy]

Nice work on the Bulldogs/Broncos under. Landed on 36 points as you predicted.

Cheers mate.. GL tonight with MNF - one of us will be a winner

[That Guy]

updated end round : NRL Season 2012 99-86 +25.66
Round 23 6-3

Great win on the MNF total with the model only 2pts off and the return of Sharks grind away play with solid defence.
Good luck during the week. Back at it next week to hopefully achieve the goal of 30+ units.

[aussieH]

Great work.

[s2230011]

Well done mate, appreciated

[Bazz27]

updated end round : NRL Season 2012 99-86 +25.66
Round 23 6-3

Great win on the MNF total with the model only 2pts off and the return of Sharks grind away play with solid defence.
Good luck during the week. Back at it next week to hopefully achieve the goal of 30+ units.

Mate that was a nice mnf under to finish, cheers but hope u will continue once your goal of 30 units is achieved....

[hjrozay]

updated end round : NRL Season 2012 99-86 +25.66
Round 23 6-3

Great win on the MNF total with the model only 2pts off and the return of Sharks grind away play with solid defence.
Good luck during the week. Back at it next week to hopefully achieve the goal of 30+ units.

Hey That Guy, again i wanna pay homage on your success heading into the final three rounds of this NRL season. Is your goal to finish +30 before Finals or finals included?, either way mate keep up the grind.

[s2230011]

What are you liking tonight ?

I am looking forward to both games. Not sure what to make of the Tigers, people are giving them a shot but I dont think they played well against the Dragons or Parra the week before.

Storm and Brisbane .. both sides are pretty desperate. Brisbane were good last week, but I think their bubble has burst a little. I think they are trying but they lost that spark

[hjrozay]

Brisbane also has a short turn around from Sunday. While the Storm has had seven days to prepare.

[That Guy]

Hey That Guy, again i wanna pay homage on your success heading into the final three rounds of this NRL season. Is your goal to finish +30 before Finals or finals included?, either way mate keep up the grind.

Thanks mate.. hoping for +30 prior to finals (regular season) and hopefully some extras during the finals

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 99-86 +25.66
Round 24

Let's do it! Looking forward to desperation this weekend and blow outs with the teams who have no hope of making the finals

Play #1
Broncos vs Storm UNDER 42.5 3x 1.95
Got this total this morning before the books started dropping the numbers. Still think U40.5 is good value - some books still offering while others have hit the 37.5 or 38.5 mark. Broncos have been winning close matches (and losing them) by solid defence and that needs to return tonight. This should be a grind away game with both teams achieving high completion rates and taking opportunities as they come. Corey Parker returning to side is a huge bonus and his inclusion favours the UNDER - strong defence and goal kicking that has been sub par. The majority of tries scored between these sides have been out wide, which suits a low conversion rate for this game.
Model has it at 36pts but the potential for a lower total with this 'must win' game is very high. Rolling with 3x 1.95 on the UNDER 42.5.
Again, if that doesn't exist I'd go a little lower on the U 40.5. Anything below 40 seems too close for mine. GL

[That Guy]

ADDED:

Play #2
Bulldogs vs Tigers OVER 41.5 1x 1.95
There is a slight potential for in game rain tonight but it shouldn't affect the total too much. Stats for the Tigers are very very patchy and it looks good for this game to blow out - it was only 2 weeks ago we saw the Eels / Tigers total hit 60+. On average the Tigers let in almost 22pts per game and the Bulldogs are due to hit some decent form to put on more points (they have been scoring well below average for recent games). Kasiano and Graham returning are massive for the Bulldogs and the strike power they add to the side should be noticed tonight. Last time these teams met the total was 52pts. With a concerted effort from the Tigers tonight the model has it at 44pts. Not much above the total but well worth a play.. especially when the Tigers decide to play catch up football when they're behind.
GL

[SaffaCappa]

Amazing! Double BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

[swordsandtequila]

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 101-86 +29.46
Round 24 2-0

Perfect start to the weekend
Nailed the big 3x play and the Bulldogs / Tigers OVER.... locking in plays for tomorrow with totals already out.

Play #3
Raiders vs Roosters UNDER 48.5 2x 1.95
Raiders turned a corner last week when the coach declared they were intent to play 'grind out' football and win matches thru heavy defence, even if it meant a 'boring game'. If this style continue for another round we'll see a much more sedated Raiders pack looking to notch up 2 points and keep this game under control. Roosters have been horribly inconsistent but when playing structured sides the total drops considerably (ie - Dragons / Bulldogs). Last time these teams met the total only hit 22, this time the stakes are higher and we're getting a total that is double that.
We also have a serious weather factor - the chance of snow in Canberra. Never seen the impact in Rugby League before but it must be a heavy UNDER factor.. if it turns out that's no the case we'll have a wet ground.
Worse case on the model this game clocks in at 44pts but given this is a must win game for the Raiders it should be much lower - around 36-38. Rolling with 2x 1.95 on this at 48.5.. GL

Play #4
Sharks vs Rabbitohs OVER 40 1x 1.95
With GI back for the Rabbitohs and Asotasi expected to make a return the Rabbitohs will have added attacking power. These two teams have a history of putting on a try fest and both will be desperate for points tomorrow night. Model has this game bang on 42pts but add in the return of key players and this should go OVER. Not that it shouldn't be close, just shapes as a high scoring game for both teams. Last time they met the total was 62pts. We won't get that but something in the range of 44-48 seems likely.
Rolling with 1x on the OVER 40. GL

[aussieH]

Great work

[angelo63]

Excellent work mate as always, time fort Mini to retire, and Anasta

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 102-87 +30.36
Round 24 3-1

Grinding forward with a 2unit win tonight.. achieved the goal of 30units for a season. With 2 rounds and finals left 40units is what we'll work towards. More action tomorrow. GL

[MrXYZ]

Congrats on hitting 30 units.

[aussieH]

Well done on 30 units. Is this a good year for you or as expected

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 102-87 +30.36
Round 24 3-1

Play #5
Warriors vs Panthers UNDER 48.5 1x 1.95
We've seen some shocking football from these two sides but the key indicator for this game is the lack of points both teams have been able to produce - both have only notched up a dismal 16pts in the last 2 matches. Warriors are playing for pride and Panthers to avoid the wooden spoon. The total is cooked a little too high for a game that doesn't really mean too much and Warriors haven't really showed any spark recently. Have his game at 44pts points on the model but the trend is for even lower - around 36pts. Panthers have been happy to slowly grind away at games and they should do that today to get a win.
Rolling with the UNDER 48.5 at 1x 1.95. GL

[snufflyjoe]

well done man, penrith/warriors under 46.5 is tempting me

[That Guy]

Well done on 30 units. Is this a good year for you or as expected

cheers mate.. never expected but hoped for!
first time I've really concentrated on NRL capping.. market is dominated by weekend punters betting on their favourite side - so lots of room to move. Especially with totals, books don't really focus on them and they are slow to move / not as sharp as playing sides. Hope that continues.

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #6
Titans vs Eels UNDER 46.5 2x 1.95
Books like this game as a try fest with both teams racking up the tries but it shouldn't pan out like that. Titans are well aware they need to win their remaining games to have any chance at the finals. This game should be tight with Titans controlling defence around the ruck and completing sets to grind away a win. Their average ppg has been lower over the last few rounds and we should expect they'll be very very wary of playing runaway football with the Eels. Titans had the best defence in the competition for the start of the year and they'll need it this afternoon. Based on stats this game reaches 42pts but given the importance of this match it should be much tighter around 36pts. Rolling on this 2x UNDER 46.5 at 1.95. Might need to shop around to get this number. GL

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #7
Sea Eagles vs Knights UNDER 40.5 1x 1.95
Unders are well & truly the order of the weekend. We saw how tight the Sea Eagles defence can be against the Rabbitohs last week, but the surprise package is the Knights - tight defence has been winning them games and they'll need that today. Sea Eagles will be on guard today after they got smashed by the Knights last time around. Manly also come off 9 days rest and should be ready to fire. Expecting this game to be much closer then last time - model has it at 38pts but the last 6 weeks trend is much lower at only 24pts. Playing the UNDER 1x at 1.95. GL

[swordsandtequila]

[snufflyjoe]

the titans game is under 46.5 at even money? a go i reckon

[That Guy]

the titans game is under 46.5 at even money? a go i reckon

Yep. got it when I posted the update about 12.30 at bet365. lower at other books

[That Guy]

updated:
NRL Season 2012 104-88 +32.21
Round 24 5-2

Another good day on the books. Unfortunately the Knights don't seem interested in finals footy.. but at least we won't die wondering if the UNDER hits or not!
Looking a big play for tomorrow night to end the round on a high. GL

[Crowing Capers]

Top notch again TG.
Had a shocker on the AFL this weekend , your big plays saved me man. Appreciated.

Without researching I suspect your Monday night plays are hitting at least 70% of the time.
Will be eagerly waiting.....

[That Guy]

Top notch again TG.
Had a shocker on the AFL this weekend , your big plays saved me man. Appreciated.

Without researching I suspect your Monday night plays are hitting at least 70% of the time.
Will be eagerly waiting.....

No probs mate.. some crazy AFL results over the weekend!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 104-88 +32.21
Round 24 5-2

Play #8
Dragons vs Cowboys UNDER 41.5 2x 1.95
Dragons attack has been rubbish with an average of only 16pts over the past 5 games. They need defence to win this game and at Wollongong they have a shot - Dragons have a fantastic record at home in the Gong. There is no way you'd touch this UNDER at Townsville but tonight should be a grind fest. Realistically if the Cowboys win big we should see a 28-6 scoreline but it should be a lot closer. Dragons are a slim chance to make the finals and need a win tonight. Motivation is still high according to the coach and their goal tonight is to "complete solid sets of 6 and slow down the big units". If they do that we have our UNDER in typical Dragons donkfest fashion.
Rolling 2x the UNDER at 41.5 - if you can get 40.5 that'd be fine too. Doubt we'll see a field goal in this game. GL

[swordsandtequila]

Been tailing you the last few weeks, pretty impressive. Cowboys/Dragons o/u posted @ 41.5 at 5Dimes (I'm US). Their totals disappear sometimes, you posting a play tonight or passing? Cheers.


Scratch that, beat me to it! Thanks.