Thatguy's NRL Plays

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:03 AM

c'mon positive thinking fellas! no more tries now im feeling it

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:07 AM

Hold!!!!

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:09 AM

Hold!!!!!

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:13 AM

79th minute try FFS!

That Guy · 08-25-12, 04:17 AM

Adding:
1x extra unit on Cowboys vs Knights for a total of 2x units

GL

Total was at 44.5 an hour before kick off - so unlucky to miss the extra 0.5 for Dragons UNDER

kisado · 08-25-12, 04:20 AM

St. George score in the last minute to win it 38-6. I had U43.5 -110. Moose.

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:23 AM

oh well decided a flyer on a long shot parlay may cheer me up! Collingwood win + Knights win + Gold coast +68 points pays 15/1

snufflyjoe · 08-25-12, 04:26 AM

Originally posted by kisado

St. George score in the last minute to win it 38-6. I had U43.5 -110. Moose.

me too it hurt..hurt bad .. That's it for me this weekend fellas best of luck with the rest of your plays this weekend

That Guy · 08-25-12, 06:26 AM

updated: NRL Season 2012 106-1-91 +32.96
Round 25 2-1-2
Unbelievable.
Gold Coast throwing their season away with one of their worst games this season.. then a push after the UNDER looked solid with 20mins to play in the Dragons game. Finally a Cowboys game with 6 tries in the first half and NONE in the second!!
We only needed half that amount of tries to cash the OVER and the live total was 68pts. FFS!!!

Just a bad bad night with variance completely smashing us after the total plays looked solid for at least 65mins of the game. Extremely disappointing.
Laying off team plays completely after drawing a line in the sand for % hits. More totals to come tomorrow.

s2230011 · 08-25-12, 07:14 PM

Are Parra really +15.5 pts ? I cant believe it and obviously missing something

That Guy · 08-25-12, 08:11 PM

NRL Season 2012 106-1-91 +32.96
Round 25 2-1-2

Need to stress the importance of shopping around for totals - last night would have been nasty if you got a total less then 44pts on the Dragons game. 43.5 is effectively a 42.5 total in NRL as we wouldn't expect to see field goals in a score that high. Obviously if you move away from the total in the right direction the win % improves (roughly 1-2% per 0.5).
There are loads of totals on the books today and they're jumping around like crazy. Rabbitohs opened at 46.5 at some books, is still 48 or 48.5 at others and maxing out at 50 on a few select books.
If you can't line hunt, consider scaling down your plays and practice good money management. Anyway, enough crap.. let's get em!

Play #6
Roosters vs Tigers OVER 44.5 2x 1.95
These teams have a high scoring history and average well over 50pts together in their last 6x matches. With nothing to play for the Roosters have been on fire and should match the intensity of the Tigers today. Robbie Farah is a tackling machine for the Tigers and will be sorely missed in the defensive line. Roosters defence is the 2nd worst in the NRL and we should see lots of easy tries in a see sawing game. Have this total at 49points on the model and rolling 2x OVER at 1.95. GL

Play #7
Rabbitohs vs Eels UNDER 50 1.5x 1.95
The books have given us the largest total of the NRL season with this game but it's a little over cooked from mine.
Last time these teams met it was a free flowing game that only managed a 30 point total. Eels with Sandow will be very keen to keep a lid on the Rabbitohs who have looked less than spectacular over the past few rounds. Expect the Rabbitohs to play solid football and slowly edge past the Eels - this is a team who are looking for a solid performance and not play a crazy expansive game. Rabbitohs have managed only 13points in their last 2 games and for the OVER to cash today they'd need to score almost 6x more.
Model has this game at 44points, so grabbing the UNDER 50 looks very good. Rolling with this for 1.5x GL

Vinnie Paz · 08-25-12, 08:55 PM

Play #6, still value at 46.5?

That Guy · 08-25-12, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Play #6, still value at 46.5?

Hey mate..

Hmmm.. you're probably about 7% worse off with that line.
If it was me I'd leave it or play for 1x at most.

Vinnie Paz · 08-25-12, 09:33 PM

Thanks man
Ive got a line of 50 for play #7 so ill just take that then

That Guy · 08-26-12, 01:48 AM

updated: NRL Season 2012 108-1-91 +36.27
Round 25 4-1-2

Great day nailing the books on the totals

Looking a big play to end the round on MNF... will post that later tonight.

hawley · 08-26-12, 02:50 AM

Under tomorrow looks good.

That Guy · 08-26-12, 02:58 AM

NRL Season 2012 108-1-91 +36.27
Round 25 4-1-2

Play #8
Storm vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 4x 1.95
Biggest play of the year is on. The goal was to reach 30units profit for the season and with room to move, the UNDER looks very good for this match. Storm are back to playing some good football and based on the stats this game ends up at 38points even. However, add into the mix their record at Melbourne, take out 2x floggings they received and it's a completely different story.. looking at a total of around 28pts. Sharks only give us 18pts per game on average and against the top 4 sides their attacking average is even lower at 12 points. This will be a battle of the forward and dirty game that Paul Gallen loves to defend in.
Against top 4 sides the Storm have gotten totals from 32-36 at home but the books are discounting the Sharks defence in this game.. but in the past 6 weeks they've been very solid. Keeping the Rabbitohs quiet with only 20points is a feat in itself.
The 38.5 total will disappear when the squares get onboard tomorrow and expect this will close around 36-37. Jumping onboard with the biggest play of the season at 4x 1.95 on the UNDER.
Scale your bet accordingly. With room to move on the bank roll this is a 4x play on what looks like a solid UNDER. GL

hawley · 08-26-12, 03:01 AM

Love the play.

This should be a grind.

easysaid · 08-26-12, 03:22 AM

nice one, definiteely getting a piece of this.

TC Woods · 08-26-12, 04:22 PM

Damn 5 dimes does not have a "total" wager ...

swordsandtequila · 08-26-12, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Damn 5 dimes does not have a "total" wager ...

Doesn't go up 'til late; usually I request totals in live chat. They post eventually but by then lines have adjusted.

TC Woods · 08-26-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Doesn't go up 'til late; usually I request totals in live chat. They post eventually but by then lines have adjusted.

Thanks... about what time EST should I re-check?

swordsandtequila · 08-26-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Thanks... about what time EST should I re-check?

Hard to say, varies. I always tell them it's late and I need sleep, usually true being east coast and most games in the middle of the night my time. Get them on live chat and ask when they're posting rugby league totals. Usually does the trick.

TC Woods · 08-26-12, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Hard to say, varies. I always tell them it's late and I need sleep, usually true being east coast and most games in the middle of the night my time. Get them on live chat and ask when they're posting rugby league totals. Usually does the trick.

I did as you suggested... they said to check back in 30 minutes

TC Woods · 08-26-12, 08:35 PM

Finally.... I'm in at U38.5

ULTRANORTH · 08-26-12, 09:21 PM

Why 4 units? Ill fade this play and im surprised you've gone with 4. I think Melbourne at home would want to make a statement and have at least 4/5 tries in them which is 30. Ive got Cronulla to score 2 so that's 40 right there.

jbart28 · 08-26-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by ULTRANORTH

Why 4 units? Ill fade this play and im surprised you've gone with 4. I think Melbourne at home would want to make a statement and have at least 4/5 tries in them which is 30. Ive got Cronulla to score 2 so that's 40 right there.

Where do you get these numbers. You are gonna get raped

ULTRANORTH · 08-26-12, 09:57 PM

We'll see what happens mate. Sunny in Melbourne too

Jesus Christ · 08-26-12, 10:37 PM

I'm bored and need something to do..I'm in

132714169-1	8/26/12 11:33pm	$275.00	$250.00	Pending	8/27/12 5:00am Rugby League Other Sports 101 Cronulla Sharks/Melbourne Storm Under 38½ -110*

132713765-1	8/26/12 11:17pm	$275.00	$250.00	Pending	8/27/12 5:00am Rugby League Other Sports 101 Cronulla Sharks/Melbourne Storm Under 38½ -110*

Astros148 · 08-26-12, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Jesus Christ

I'm bored and need something to do..I'm in

132714169-1	8/26/12 11:33pm	$275.00	$250.00	Pending	8/27/12 5:00am Rugby League Other Sports 101 Cronulla Sharks/Melbourne Storm Under 38½ -110*

132713765-1	8/26/12 11:17pm	$275.00	$250.00	Pending	8/27/12 5:00am Rugby League Other Sports 101 Cronulla Sharks/Melbourne Storm Under 38½ -110*

its a great play! i watch alot of NRL too

brettels · 08-26-12, 10:49 PM

Storm win?

That Guy · 08-27-12, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by ULTRANORTH

Why 4 units? Ill fade this play and im surprised you've gone with 4. I think Melbourne at home would want to make a statement and have at least 4/5 tries in them which is 30. Ive got Cronulla to score 2 so that's 40 right there.

The goal was to make 30units profit for the season, achieved that, so hitting great looking plays a little more aggressively. It's house money and won't fall below 30units as is anyway. Obviously that's not the situation for all of us, so practice good money management regardless.

As for the prediction above of 7 tries to go OVER 38.5.. you're assuming that both teams hit all conversion attempts - that happens and it hits 42pts. However, in the last 6 games between these sides the majority of tries were happening out wide on the fringes. If that happens again you'd be very lucky to get 7/7.. maybe 5/7 which would be 38pts and the UNDER still hits. Add to that a predicted 40-50km/h wind tonight in Melbourne and who knows what happens.

Looking at advance stats this is why I like this game -

STORM:
In the past 3 matches the Storm have only managed 13.3 points average per match. This is against teams that are hardly defensive world beaters or top 5 sides - Penrith, Gold Coast & Brisbane.
Their return to the winners circle has been built purely on defence.
During the Storm's dark rounds where they lost 6 in a row they were conceding an average of only 22 points per game.

Worst case scenario based on those stats is a 35.3 point game. Obviously anything can happen.. but Storm should look to turn this into a tough, grind out game where coach Bellamy can play a battle that he's used to.

SHARKS:
Discounting the Warriors flogging the Sharks biggest scoring match over the past 6 weeks was a score of 26 against Brisbane. During that game the UNDER still hit with the Broncos scoring 12points.
Sharks motivation will be to end the year with wins to secure a home final. Paul Gallen and the Shark's forwards love these low scoring grind out affairs. The improved defence last week against the Rabbitohs won them the game and we hit a total of just 27 (with 3 of those tries scored in the last 15mins.. this was a much closer game then indicated).

SIDES HISTORY:
The average score between these sides in the last 9 games is 30 points. Last 5 games is a lowly 26 points. The last match total was 24 points on a game played in fine conditions, with no wind on a Sunday afternoon in Sydney.

Everything points to a grind game which is why it's the first 4x play of the season.
Obviously it could turn to sh!t and the Monday night hoodoo comes out to play.. but given how important this game is to both teams I'm willing to lay it down on a grind game.

Good luck tonight

h3da · 08-27-12, 12:17 AM

Good luck on your play mate... I'm on melbourne -8.... Hopefully we both cash

Crowing Capers · 08-27-12, 12:28 AM

Love that reasoning TG....
One of the real sharps on here.
Let's get this 1 mate👍

easysaid · 08-27-12, 12:39 AM

Just bet my entire college fund on this shit, no.. but seriously i layed big (well for my bankroll anyway).