Thatguy's NRL Plays

[benandjerry]

Thanks for your work TG!

LOL what was that guy thinking getting a penalty with a minute left. You could tell the refs were trying to keep it close. I just started watching NRL and I can tell it is rigged.

We cashed though. TY TG lol

I too just started following NRL this season and I enjoy it quite a bit, used to think rugby was really boring, but this is good stuff (most of the time).

[That Guy]

NRL / Finals Season 2012 114-1-95 +42.67
Finals 1-0

Play #2
Storm vs Rabbitohs UNDER 38 1x 1.85
The Rabbitoh's record against top 8 sides is appalling - mainly because they give up the game in the last 20mins. Storm have been the 'closers' of the NRL and power home in the last 10mins. The Rabbitohs game plan today is focused on defence and containing Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and the go forward of the Storm. Stats for this game are eerily similar to the Storm vs Sharks game only 2 weeks ago - in that game we had a low score until 15mins to go and the total points hit 36 on the buzzer.
In such an intense game you'd expect the Storm to keep pace early this time around even if the Rabbitohs attempt to slow the game down. Despite blown out scorelines in the past between these sides they've never actually hit an 'OVER' - a big positive this time around. Rabbitoh's defence has been on the improve the last few rounds and if it sticks today the UNDER hits.
Have the total at 36pts on the model which is close to the number the books are posting, but expecting the defence to be much tighter then usual from both sides. Rolling with 1x UNDER at 38pts for 1.85.
There are a fair few totals for this game & you can get 38.5 down to 34.5 at some books. Almost worth leveling if you're game.. but I'm sticking to the UNDER 38. GL

Broncos vs Cowboys to come later this afternoon

Side play: Toyota Cup finals
Rabbitohs + 6 vs Roosters 1x 1.95
This game is being treated as a "neutral" ground by the books because it's being played in Melbourne. However, I doubt that is the case with at least 10 000 Rabbitohs supporters at the ground and zero Roosters fans. Roosters have an amazing home record but away from Sydney they are horrible. Both teams are 1-1 in earlier games this year and it should be a close game.. but +6 Rabbitohs is a big start in front of a large supporter base in Melbourne.
This game will be on TV this afternoon at 3.30 and I'm taking the Rabbitohs +6
GL

[swordsandtequila]

[That Guy]

added:

Play #3
Cowboys vs Broncos 1x OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Cowboys are the dark horse heading into the finals and you get the feeling the the beating they gave the Sharks at home just fuels momentum heading into the finals. The Broncos will need to withstand Thurston and Bowen, who have piled on points like crazy the last few weeks - get the feeling in a crunch match like this that the game opens up. Last time they met the total was just 12 but there were significant injury omissions for both sides. Tonight should be end to end football based on the model - total predicted at 40pts despite some lower Broncos team totals recently.
Locking in the OVER 38.5 at 1x 1.95.. GL

[YorkHunt]

Hope storm stop scoring but rabbitohs are done!

[snufflyjoe]

Thanks TG and good luck. I'm going with cowboys -10 for 2.15

[snufflyjoe]

Both win well done!

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks a ton guy!
See ya back tonight

[That Guy]

Both win well done!

Thanks a ton guy!
See ya back tonight

cheers guys.. good night on the books!
<br>

[That Guy]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 114-1-95 +44.47
Finals 3-0

Rabbitohs / Storm stays UNDER and Cowboys game blows out with 15mins to run... Toyota cup play also cashes with Rabbitohs +6. Good day all around going 3 from 3 (only counting the 2 NRL games in the above count).
One more play tomorrow to end the first week of the finals on a high.

[aussieH]

Great work.

[Bazz27]

3 great calls TG, your a good stats man plus u know how this game works, thanks for sharing this knowledge with us other punters n r/league tragics.. cheers

[That Guy]

3 great calls TG, your a good stats man plus u know how this game works, thanks for sharing this knowledge with us other punters n r/league tragics.. cheers

Cheers mate.. hopefully we can increase the bank roll again today!

[That Guy]

NRL / Finals Season 2012 114-1-95 +44.47
Finals 3-0

Play #4
Raiders vs Sharks OVER 40.5 1x 1.90
Defence is key for both sides in this game and they've been very patchy of late. Raiders unforced errors in big games is a concern and it should open the door up to the Sharks to get some easy points. The OVER for this game looks extremely good but the concern is the lack of points the Sharks give up against top 8 teams, however their record against the Raiders is shocking - both games earlier in the season went way over the totals with one game reaching 66pts. Sharks have a good record in Canberra and will be confident going into this match, whereas the Raiders are big favourites and should do well at home.
Model has this game at 46pts and rolling with the OVER 40.5 1x 1.90. GL

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks guy
Poster roxxyfish has as a large wager on sharks +4. what is your take on this side? If you dont mind...

[That Guy]

Thanks guy
Poster roxxyfish has as a large wager on sharks +4. what is your take on this side? If you dont mind...

Should be a very very close game.. Have a feeling Raiders will sneak away with a win as they have done many times at home in Canberra before.
Not playing teams anymore but looking at the model I have.. should be a close 4-6pt win. Put it this way, I'd rather be on the Sharks + then Raiders -pts if I had a gun to my head. But in saying that the Raiders should do the job in front of a big home crowd.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 115-1-95 +45.37
Finals 4-0

BOOM!
Can't complain with a weekend winning record of 100%!
Killed the books and looking forward to more big plays next week.. GL

[MrXYZ]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 115-1-95 +45.37
Finals 4-0

BOOM!
Can't complain with a weekend winning record of 100%!
Killed the books and looking forward to more big plays next week.. GL

Well done TG. Going 100% in a Finals week is gold medal capping!

[twinky99]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 115-1-95 +45.37
Finals 4-0

BOOM!
Can't complain with a weekend winning record of 100%!
Killed the books and looking forward to more big plays next week.. GL

been a good year That Guy, well done

[That Guy]

Well done TG. Going 100% in a Finals week is gold medal capping!

been a good year That Guy, well done

Cheers guys.. always great to have a big weekend against the books!
Hopefully we can do it against next weekend.

[Crowing Capers]

Again TG
You have got me out of trouble.
Got buried sat AFL but had real crack on the overs today and somehow turned my weekend into a winning weekend
Cheers mate
Farkinnn killing it
I saw you cap NBL as well
How do you go in that??

[Bazz27]

u can't do better than 100%, thanks again TG

[swordsandtequila]

[That Guy]

Again TG
You have got me out of trouble.
Got buried sat AFL but had real crack on the overs today and somehow turned my weekend into a winning weekend
Cheers mate
Farkinnn killing it
I saw you cap NBL as well
How do you go in that??

No probs.. good to hear it mate!
I don't CAP NBL - was probably referring to MrXYZ who did a killer job last season

[garygroundwork]

4 zip...****.. nice

[That Guy]

NRL / Finals Season 2012 115-1-95 +45.37
Finals 4-0

Play #5
Sea Eagles vs Cowboys OVER 35.5 2x 1.75
Locking in an 'alternate total' this week which is a available at several books. If you can't get that line I'd roll with 1x OVER 37.5.. for less 20c on the alternate line we're getting a greatly improved win % at a very small total.
Books have driven this line down on the back of smallish totals between these sides (last time they met the score was 8-6), however it means very little in a sudden death finals match. Cowboys have been on fire and the totals blow out last week against the Broncos was a similar setup.. they will not die wondering tonight and the game plan revolves around exploiting the fringes and keeping a fast pace. Sea Eagles have been woeful at putting on points in the second half but should be much better in that area this week. The trend for both sides points to an OVER and you can guarantee whoever is behind with 5-10mins remaining will risk everything to get more points on the board - a win/win for the OVER. Model has this game at 41points in dry Sydney conditions.. so we're getting 6 points of value on the total.
Rolling with 2x OVER 35.5 at 1.75. GL

[angelo63]

Lve your work mate, have been following most of the year and it has only improved. I stopped playing sides a few months back and settled for totals with you and playing a lot of in play options. Im riding the Cows hard for the title at 25 to 1 so that has kept me interested. Whatever the rest of the year brings its been great reading your work. Hope your enjoying the NFL and NCAAF as I find it a lot easier to make money on that our NRL..BOL tonight.

[That Guy]

Lve your work mate, have been following most of the year and it has only improved. I stopped playing sides a few months back and settled for totals with you and playing a lot of in play options. Im riding the Cows hard for the title at 25 to 1 so that has kept me interested. Whatever the rest of the year brings its been great reading your work. Hope your enjoying the NFL and NCAAF as I find it a lot easier to make money on that our NRL..BOL tonight.

Cheers mate
GL tonight.. haven't played any NFL or NCAAF this year - just focusing on NRL for the moment.
NBA is the next big focus till the next season

[aussieH]

Looking forward to your nba picks

[That Guy]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 115-1-95 +43.37
Finals 4-1

Ouch. That game should have gone well & truly OVER - there were at least 4 scoring opportunities from both the Cowboys and Sea Eagles in the last 5mins alone. Very disappointing.
Anyway... looking at 2x solid plays for tomorrow.

[aussieH]

Plenty of scoring opportunities but also some lucky video tries.

Lets get tonights game

[That Guy]

NRL / Finals Season 2012 116-1-96 +43.37
Finals 4-1

Play #6
Rabbitohs vs Raiders OVER 42 1x 1.95
These sides will never give up tonight and it promises to be a fight to the death in front of a large home crowd. Raiders lethal attack always provides plenty of points and they love to come from behind. However, the Rabbitohs have been down on attack and not providing points like they usually do.. that should end tonight. Raiders open style of football suits the Rabbitohs and this looks like a try fest. Last time they met this game blew out to 54 points and while it should be a lot tighter tonight the total looks very good.
Model has this game at 47pts and I'm rolling on it 1x at 1.95. GL


BONUS PLAY (not included in NRL totals)
Toyota Cup: Warriors -4 vs Roosters 3x 1.95
Roosters were lucky to make it last week against the Rabbitohs after notching up 2 late tries with 5mins to go. Warriors are the defending premiers and are a huge side that build on momentum. The Roosters should get destroyed in this game by a large pack that will walk all over them up the middle. If the Warriors get a few back to back sets they'll easily cover the 4 points and then some. The large Rabbitohs crowd will be against the Roosters after they knocked out the Rabbitohs last week.. plus Rabbitohs fans despise the Roosters.
Last time they met the Warriors defeated the Roosters by 10pts and were missing several key players.
This is the biggest play I've made on Toyota Cup after look at several angles for this match and it looks the goods from mine. Rolling 3x on the Warriors Toyota Cup. GL

[swordsandtequila]

Let's get it back tonight! Good luck!

[That Guy]

updated: NRL / Finals Season 2012 117-1-96 +44.32
Finals 5-1

OVER from the Rabbitohs cashed easily... roll on next week!

[That Guy]

NRL / Finals Season 2012 117-1-96 +44.32
Finals 5-1

Play #7
Storm vs Sea Eagles UNDER 34.5 2x 1.90
We should get a nice tight game with these two sides who play a similar style of football and will look to settle into a grind out pattern early on. The Sea Eagles defence looked woeful last time they played and it should be much tighter around the middle for this game. The last time these teams played with vastly different lineups the total blew out to over 40pts - but not concerned about that this time around as both sides are a different beast now & last game was at home to the Sea Eagles.
Model has this game at 28pts which makes the UNDER 34.5 a 2x play at 1.90. We'll hopefully see some grind out tight finals football. GL