Thatguy's NRL Plays

[That Guy]

The AllStars were disgraceful in attack !!

I actually felt the Indiginous would get up but liked the Over more, Oh well.

Looked good with 24pts on the board at half time.. but wasn't to be. Early reminder not to start high rolling the early matches.

World Club Challenge + Charity Shield plays to come before Round 1.

[benrama]

Good luck for the upcoming season TG! I'm looking forward to it too. That All Stars game was actually pretty entertaining in the 1st half, I was on the over also but after they bombed two tries in the first 5 minutes or so I thought it could be a long night for the over backers.

Just curious as to how you had a model for this game? Do you have a player based points per game type of model? What's your general formula for generating a total? (no need to give away any secret sauce if you don't want to)

[That Guy]

Good luck for the upcoming season TG! I'm looking forward to it too. That All Stars game was actually pretty entertaining in the 1st half, I was on the over also but after they bombed two tries in the first 5 minutes or so I thought it could be a long night for the over backers.

Just curious as to how you had a model for this game? Do you have a player based points per game type of model? What's your general formula for generating a total? (no need to give away any secret sauce if you don't want to)

Hey mate,
Good to see you back!
Model for this game was all player based stats with some loose "predictive" analysis on previous All Stars games. However, it was nothing flash and pretty basic. Nothing like the NRL model but just a mash of bits and pieces. Not worth the time to spend months making a model for one game that players really don't care too much about.
Total 'formula' mixture is a bit of player stats, team stats, weather, home ground record, win or lose streak and avgs for everything under the sun.. Still believe the most important thing is watching EVERY game and knowing which stats to discount & which players are firing. First few rounds involve digging thru a lot of fan reviews of trial matches and summer training.... anyway.. needless to say it's a hobby to make a few bucks!

[therealdealau]

cant wait to blindly tail and cash

[Vinnie Paz]

cant wait to blindly tail and cash

I 2nd this, guy is a Damn ATM

[That Guy]

I 2nd this, guy is a Damn ATM

That's guys!
Look forward to killing it again this year

[Coopertrooper]

Can't wait to see more of your picks, only saw your thread towards the end of the year, but will be following with interest from the start!

Have a great year

[Crowing Capers]

tailed blindly here last year


will tail blindly this year

over 40 units up last season massive props to you TG. Hoping you slam the books again mate

[aussieH]

Good luck this season. Are you paying the per season or holding off

[twinky99]

tailed blindly here last year


will tail blindly this year

over 40 units up last season massive props to you TG. Hoping you slam the books again mate

damn right, probably the only guy id tail blindly ever

heres to another profitable year!

[fitguy67]

tailed blindly here last year


will tail blindly this year

over 40 units up last season massive props to you TG. Hoping you slam the books again mate

damn right, probably the only guy id tail blindly ever

heres to another profitable year!

I plan to do the same...HOWEVER...(public-sevice announcement aimed at everyone, including myself)

when you, me, or anyone pushes the submit button on any wager on their OWN account...for whatever reason...whether "blindly tailing" or "capped it by yourself"...makes absolutely no difference...

if you locked the play onto your OWN account and no one had a gun to your head...then it is your OWN wager...

i dont want to think about the hundreds of good threads ruined by idiots who cant' grasp that

So when a TG play clikks all us makin' money can hi-five TG and congratulate ourselves for recognizing a good source of value...but when a cold patch hits...we gotta remember we have no right whatsoever to bitch at anyone, apart from ourselves...but even that's unnecessary...cuz losses are not "mistakes" anyone made...theiy're simply the necessary business expense we have to be willing to make in order to cash the winning tickets!...

this is the highly-complex "win some/lose some" (aka. "that's the way the the cookie crumbles") principle of sports investment (and life)

__________

that out of the way...TG, gud luk on churnin' out more of those NRL-flavored units again this year!

[That Guy]

I plan to do the same...HOWEVER...(public-sevice announcement aimed at everyone, including myself)

when you, me, or anyone pushes the submit button on any wager on their OWN account...for whatever reason...whether "blindly tailing" or "capped it by yourself"...makes absolutely no difference...

if you locked the play onto your OWN account and no one had a gun to your head...then it is your OWN wager...

i dont want to think about the hundreds of good threads ruined by idiots who cant' grasp that

So when a TG play clikks all us makin' money can hi-five TG and congratulate ourselves for recognizing a good source of value...but when a cold patch hits...we gotta remember we have no right whatsoever to bitch at anyone, apart from ourselves...but even that's unnecessary...cuz losses are not "mistakes" anyone made...theiy're simply the necessary business expense we have to be willing to make in order to cash the winning tickets!...

this is the highly-complex "win some/lose some" (aka. "that's the way the the cookie crumbles") principle of sports investment (and life)

__________

that out of the way...TG, gud luk on churnin' out more of those NRL-flavored units again this year!

cheers mate
Great advice as well. Money management is KEY - don't know how much more that can be stressed. It's the difference between being a successful sports investor or a weekend mug punter. Limit your risks and enjoy the ride.. don't crash and burn over 1 weekend of bad variance.
You won't see me double up after bad losses or throw crazy 3unit plays around. It's calculated for a reason and is aimed at building profit over a season. Sometimes there might not be a plays on several games.. it's all about opportunity and knowing when to hold back / pull the trigger.

[That Guy]

Good luck this season. Are you paying the per season or holding off

Will play the pre-season but it'll be very very small action this weekend and not counted in overall figures.
Also keeping it tight in the first few rounds as well till models etc.. have time to catch up and give a good overall picture.

[twinky99]

hey TG just wondering do you bet on other sports as well or just the nrl and nba?

[That Guy]

hey TG just wondering do you bet on other sports as well or just the nrl and nba?

Tennis and NBA - that's it. Nothing on the scale of NRL.

[hjrozay]

Interesting to see the lines for some of the televised pre-season action.

Sydney Roosters - 2 vs Wests Tigers

Leeds + 6 Against the Melbourne Storm for the WCC.

I know from last season you restricted the side plays but I like these two picks.

Leeds from a better preparation angle as the SL starts earlier, extra motivation surrounding Sinfield's golden boat win last year and acclimatizing to the English weather. No doubt Melbourne are quality and could win but I feel it will be extremely tighter match.

Sydney Roosters have won five of the six Foundation cups played and Wests Tigers have not beaten the SR since 2011 at Leichhardt Oval.

Both teams played great last week to beat their opposition with SR beating Manly without their strike players M.Pearce, SBW and SKD. Manly fielded their starting halves pair with Matai and Watmough (injured after 10 mins) but was mostly made up of fringe first graders.

Wests Tigers made light work of Parramatta. I watched a extended highlights package of the win and I'm not sure if its Wests Tigers ability of Parramatta's woeful inability that contributed to the result.

It's a good pre-season match up but I give an edge to the over hyped SR.

I'm not putting my house on either games. Maybe half-unit before the season proper.

What do you guys like?

I'm real happy the season is back and happy this thread is back. Good Luck TG for the season.

[That Guy]

Interesting to see the lines for some of the televised pre-season action.

Sydney Roosters - 2 vs Wests Tigers

Leeds + 6 Against the Melbourne Storm for the WCC.

I know from last season you restricted the side plays but I like these two picks.

Leeds from a better preparation angle as the SL starts earlier, extra motivation surrounding Sinfield's golden boat win last year and acclimatizing to the English weather. No doubt Melbourne are quality and could win but I feel it will be extremely tighter match.

Sydney Roosters have won five of the six Foundation cups played and Wests Tigers have not beaten the SR since 2011 at Leichhardt Oval.

Both teams played great last week to beat their opposition with SR beating Manly without their strike players M.Pearce, SBW and SKD. Manly fielded their starting halves pair with Matai and Watmough (injured after 10 mins) but was mostly made up of fringe first graders.

Wests Tigers made light work of Parramatta. I watched a extended highlights package of the win and I'm not sure if its Wests Tigers ability of Parramatta's woeful inability that contributed to the result.

It's a good pre-season match up but I give an edge to the over hyped SR.

I'm not putting my house on either games. Maybe half-unit before the season proper.

What do you guys like?

I'm real happy the season is back and happy this thread is back. Good Luck TG for the season.

Cheers mate
I like Leeds because Storm have publicly expressed frustration at having to play the game this time of year.. agree that it'll probably mean more to Leeds to be "world champions" at home than the Storm - the game won't occupy prime time or get much airplay in Australia.
Looking at a play on totals for this match so probably won't touch sides.

[That Guy]

NRL Pre-Season 2013
As always take it easy on pre-season plays.. wherever motivation is questionable anything can happen!

Play #1
Charity Shield - Rabbitohs vs Dragons 1x UNDER 35.5
We have the trifecta for a nice looking UNDER tonight. Shocking wet weather with high winds, quarter time breaks to slow things down and an extended bench for both sides (expect very little time for the big play makers). Since quarter time breaks were introduced the totals have been much lower. Both sides haven't played in wet weather since since late last year and strong winds forecast tonight.
Have the total at 28pts on a modified model and believe the value still exists in this lower total (has opened at 40.5 the last few years).
Rolling 1x on the UNDER tonight. GL



Plays to come for tomorrow morning's World Club Challenge soon...

[That Guy]

Ahhhh variance wins the day!
Took till the last 3mins for the UNDER to die.

Play #2
Storm vs Leeds UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95

2 sides unfamiliar with each others playing style. Weather conditions of rain and 2c - points to an UNDER.
Good luck.

[fitguy67]

Play #2
Storm vs Leeds UNDER 34.5 1x 1.95

what online books are good for NRL?

(I'm non-"land of the free", so i have access to the best...)

[That Guy]

what online books are good for NRL?

(I'm non-"land of the free", so i have access to the best...)

Bet365, Centrebet, Sportsbet etc.. All good.
Not sure if Pinny or 5D has any pre-season action

[fitguy67]

i finally discovered the game had already started on b365's live-bet facility (and was able to lock onto a bargain, u37.5 @ +100)...

luckily everyone cashed as the final 20mins mercifully were scoreless.

Apparently, I get to be the first to say...

CASH IT!!!!!!

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn I missed these, anything left for tonight??

[That Guy]

Damn I missed these, anything left for tonight??

There are a couple of games still left for the weekend but info re- sides / changes is hard to come by (not high profile pre season games) .. so sitting them out.

[That Guy]

i finally discovered the game had already started on b365's live-bet facility (and was able to lock onto a bargain, u37.5 @ +100)...

luckily everyone cashed as the final 20mins mercifully were scoreless.

Apparently, I get to be the first to say...

CASH IT!!!!!!

Yeah it was tight but a win is a win!
Hopefully lots more to come in the next few weeks. GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2013 0-0-0 +0
Round 1


Play #1
Roosters vs Rabbitohs OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Fine weather forecast in Sydney and a game that massively favours OVERS consistently during the past few years. Rabbitohs will try and play this game on the fringe and more than likely leak a few points with the shoddy defense of Farrell and Champion - Farrell is also playing in worst defensive position (based on stats). Only early in the season but model has this at 42pts and I'm happy to jump onboard at 38.5 when some books have moved or were previously at 40.5. It's a low opening number for round 1 based on past years.
Rolling with the OVER 38.5 at 1x for the first play of the year. Good luck!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

GL Buddy

Footy on 5 nights a week for the first few rounds - can't wait!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

NRL Season 2013 0-0-0 +0
Round 1


Play #1
Roosters vs Rabbitohs OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Fine weather forecast in Sydney and a game that massively favours OVERS consistently during the past few years. Rabbitohs will try and play this game on the fringe and more than likely leak a few points with the shoddy defense of Farrell and Champion - Farrell is also playing in worst defensive position (based on stats). Only early in the season but model has this at 42pts and I'm happy to jump onboard at 38.5 when some books have moved or were previously at 40.5. It's a low opening number for round 1 based on past years.
Rolling with the OVER 38.5 at 1x for the first play of the year. Good luck!

I like the play - 9 out of the last 10 games have gone OVER this total.

[gotov]

Most books 40.5 for total points
What book do you use TG?
Still waiting for centrebet to post their totals

[sonofben]

Another blind tailer here. Also looking to win the couple footy tipping comps I'm in

[dRavidC]

Good luck mate!

[Peptides]

Watched silently all last season. Joined to say good luck and lets make some money!

[brettels]

Anyone taking SBW to score a try at anytime @5.00 ?

[sonofben]

Anyone taking SBW to score a try at anytime @5.00 ?

I threw $5 on it.
PS: Total has moved up to 42.5 now...

[Bazz27]

yer why not he might go ok @5.... $20 outlay for a $100 back. any1 like the cowboys this yr for the title, im on two $50 doubles of carton/cows @131 n west coasts/cows @81. also sterlos new show on at 6.30 tonite on fox1 should have some good content, enjoy game 1, cheers